Sins of commission

Kooyong and Chisholm legal challenge latest; by-election rumblings in Isaacs; Jim Molan strikes back; and the Victorian Liberals gearing up already for federal preselections.

Possible (or possibly not) federal by-election news:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has petitioned the Federal Court to reject challenges against the federal election results in Chisholm and Kooyong. The challenges relate to Chinese-language Liberal Party signage that appeared to mimic the AEC’s branding, and advised voters that giving a first preference to the Liberal candidates was “the correct voting method”. As reported by The Guardian, the AEC argues that “the petition fails to set out at all, let alone with sufficient particularity, any facts or matters on the basis of which it might be concluded that it was likely that on polling day, electors able to read Chinese characters, upon seeing and reading the corflute, cast their vote in a manner different from what they had previously intended”. This seems rather puzzling to my mind, unless it should be taken to mean that no individuals have been identified who are ready to confirm that they were indeed so deceived. Academic electoral law expert Graeme Orr argued on Twitter that the AEC had “no need to intervene on the substance of a case where partisan litigants are well represented”.

• Talk of a by-election elsewhere in Melbourne was stimulated by Monday’s column ($) from acerbic Financial Review columnist Joe Aston, which related “positively feverish speculation” that Labor’s Shadow Attorney-General, Mark Dreyfus, would shortly quit his Melbourne bayside seat of Isaacs with an eye to a position on Victoria’s Court of Appeal. Aston further reported that Dreyfus hoped to be succeeded by Fiona McLeod, the prominent barrister who gained a 6.1% swing as Labor’s candidate for Higgins in May. Dreyfus emphatically rejected such “ridiculous suggestions” in late August, saying he was “absolutely committed to serving out this term of parliament”, and again took to Twitter on Monday to say he would be “staying and fighting the next election”. Aston remains unconvinced, writing in Tuesday’s column ($) that the suggestions derived from “high-level discussions Dreyfus has held on Spring Street with everyone from Premier Daniel Andrews, former Attorney-General Martin Pakula, his successor Jill Hennessy and his caucus colleagues”, along with his “indiscreet utterances around the traps”.

Federal preselection news:

• Jim Molan has won the endorsement of both Scott Morrison and the conservative faction of the New South Wales Liberal Party to fill the Senate vacancy created by Arthur Sinodinos’s departure to become ambassador to the United States. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports this is not dissuading rival nominee Richard Shields, former deputy state party director and Insurance Council of Australia manager, and the runner-up to Dave Sharma in last year’s keenly fought Wentworth preselection. Shields’ backers are said to include Helen Coonan, former Senator and Howard government minister, and Mark Neeham, a former state party director. Earlier reports suggested the moderate faction had been reconciled to Molan’s ascendancy by a pledge that he would only serve out the remainder of Sinodinos’s two-year term, and would not seek re-election in 2022.

• Rob Harris of The Age reports the Victorian Liberals are considering a plan to complete their preselections for the 2022 election much earlier than usual – and especially soon for Liberal-held seats. The idea in the latter case is for challengers to incumbents to declare their hands by January 15, with the matter to be wrapped up by late February or early March. This comes after the party’s administrative committee warded off threats to members ahead of the last election, most notably factional conservative Kevin Andrews in Menzies, by rubber-stamping the preselections of all incumbents, much to the displeasure of party members. Other preselections are to be held from April through to October. Also proposed is a toughening of candidate vetting procedures, after no fewer than seven candidates in Labor-held seats were disendorsed during the period of the campaign.

Self-promotion corner:

• I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday which noted the stances adopted of late by James McGrath, ideological warror extraordinaire and scourge of the cockatoo, in his capacity as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, which is presently conducting its broad-ranging inquiry into the May federal election. These include the end of proportional representation in the Senate, the notion that parliamentarians who quit their parties should be required to forfeit their seats, and — more plausibly — the need to curtail pre-poll voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,219 comments on “Sins of commission”

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  1. C@tmomma:

    [‘Scott Morrison is a slimy snake who speaks with a forked tongue.’]

    I think the electorate will soon tire of his antics, his clear lack of sincerity, his smirk, and other personal characteristics. The man’s a sham.

  2. a r @ #1631 Monday, October 14th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    Give me KK’s dismemberment of Dutton’s media release over Bandt’s parliamentary stunt any day.

    However in terms of actually changing anything, both are about equally futile. 🙁

    Strange as it may seem, I don’t agree. 🙂

    KK’s effort, if continued, may actually have the cumulative effect of sowing doubt about the Coalition’s pronouncements and exposing Emperor Scott and his sidekick, Peter, as having no clothes.

    Bandt’s stunt will go nowhere. Fast.

  3. a r

    Well, at least KK is trying to show spirit against Dutton, in the face of the “political media” simply lying down and lapping up the myths.

  5. I simply do not know how, supposed Christian, Scott Morrison, can just stand there and wave away the slaughter of the Kurds, because, Turkey!

  8. Lizzie

    The only long term solution that works for the Kurds. The Middle East and for the West is empowering the Middle East countries to redraw the maps that the West screwed up. Eg. Take out the Kurd Peninsula from Turkey.

  9. Sorry, lizzie, but one last reality check:

    Brett McGurk
    @brett_mcgurk
    ·
    13h
    Only four days into Turkish attack and one week after POTUS-Erdogan call:

    * UN: 130k displaced (likely to 3x)
    * ISIS terrorists escaping (caught after years of painstaking effort)
    * Syrians executed on roadways by Turkish-backed opposition forces
    * Main US supply lines cut..

  15. C@t

    I’m feeling a little low today but am roused to snigger at this thought.

    Q. to Proudfoot.
    How are you helping farmers in this drought crisis?

    A. We’re simplifying the forms.

    Perhaps, in this Poverty Week, Centrelink could also simplify their approach.

  16. lizzie @ #1649 Monday, October 14th, 2019 – 12:39 pm

    C@t

    I’m feeling a little low today but am roused to snigger at this thought.

    Q. to Proudfoot.
    How are you helping farmers in this drought crisis?

    A. We’re simplifying the forms.

    Perhaps, in this Poverty Week, Centrelink could also simplify their approach.

    The Coalition aren’t on the Centrelink recipient’s side, so, not going to happen. 😐

  18. Thank goodness I’m going out this afternoon. I’ll be able to bypass SmugMo in full supercilious bastard mode in Question Time.

  19. I was going to remark earlier, that original predictions were that the tropics (ie the Top End) would be the least impacted by Global Warming. It seems they were wrong.

  20. PHoN sheeple sick of being fleeced and crutched….

    1. To expel James Ashby from One Nation (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation), and all divisions, for life.

    > The reason being for bringing One Nation into disrepute due to his actions over the past few years. Ie the American trip to the National Rifle Association with Steve Dickson (Senate candidate), the scuffle and fight with former One Nation Senator Brian Burston in Parliament House last year, the One Nation aeroplane saga and investigations that came with it and for other headlines that have hit the media.

    2. To remove Pauline Hanson as President for Life of One Nation federal division.

    >The reason being that One Nation should be democratic and members should be able to nominate for executive positions within the party. This is also for the better management of the party, which will in the future minimise any litigation that the party may encounter, due to any poor decisions. One Nation has been subjected to this in the past, with Pauline Hanson even being put in jail.

    You may not be a supporter of Pauline Hanson or One Nation but One Nation is a political party that was intended to hold the major political parties to account. Without democracy in this party, this will never happen.

  23. Whatever did happen to the AFP’s investigation of Pauline Hanson’s donated campaigning plane!?!

    I know, I shouldn’t ask.

  24. Guytuar

    Anyone stupid enough to join a party incorporating a person’s name has no basis on which to try to bring that person to account. To do so simply compounds their stupidity.

  25. This has James Ashby’s greedy fingerprints all over it:

    Sarah Vogler from the Courier Mail first reported this on the weekend, but it deserves another look. One Nation appears to be charging its members to attend its AGM this Saturday.

  27. C@tmomma
    says:
    Monday, October 14, 2019 at 12:59 pm
    This has James Ashby’s greedy fingerprints all over it:
    Sarah Vogler from the Courier Mail first reported this on the weekend, but it deserves another look. One Nation appears to be charging its members to attend its AGM this Saturday.
    ___________________________________
    wow. you must have a Murdoch subscription! 🙂

  29. Sprocket

    Yes. Centre Alliance took a while to heed this lesson. Only after their charismatic leader was removed did they change their name.

    It’s to the credit of Bob Brown and Don Chipp they had more respect for their potential voters.

  30. Amy Remeikis reflects on the Morrison government:

    None of these talking points are Watergate. We all know that MPs have talking notes – how else do you think they all say the same thing, over and over and over again?

    And there is nothing new in any of them – we all know the government’s lines on these issues.

    But it is interesting that the arguments have not shifted, despite the debates having moved on – the government is still pushing the same points it has been pushing since Scott Morrison came to power.

    But we have come to expect that too. Everything Morrison doesn’t want to talk about is a “bubble” issue, or something he is “not getting into” or “I’ve already answered that” and we all know the issues with getting anything out of government departments.

  31. Something else the govt isn’t doing.

    Nine News Sydney @9NewsSyd
    · 19h
    The PM has pulled the pin on the COAG leaders meeting, saying the national recycling agreement will not be ready in time. @jekearsley #9News

  32. Cheryl Kernot @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    1m
    Dear god! A journo just asked Anna Bligh whether banks not passing on full interest rates was an issue for “the quiet Australians”. Totally coopting the Govt’s language without thought/let alone question.

  34. How good is a one agenda item meeting!

    Seriously, 45 days sitting of parliament. Cancelling COAG. This is becoming ridiculous. What are you actually doing beyond photo ops?

    Praying?

  36. Trump goes after Fox News’ Chris Wallace after Shep Smith departure

    President Donald Trump appears to be waging his own war against Fox News hosts that report the factual news and not opinions.

    Friday, longtime Fox newsman Shep Smith was officially released from his contract, at his request and fellow Fox staffers are warning it’s only the beginning. But now, it seems the president is seeing his sights on ridding the network of anyone who doesn’t parrot his policies, politics, talking points or dares to fact-check him.

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

    Somebody please explain to Chris Wallace of Fox, who will never be his father (and my friend), Mike Wallace, that the Phone Conversation I had with the President of Ukraine was a congenial & good one. It was only Schiff’s made up version of that conversation that was bad!

    It isn’t the first Time Trump has gone after the younger Wallace. In a 2015 debate where Trump attacked former Fox News host Megyn Kelly for “blood coming out of her wherever,” Trump also attacked Chris Wallace for not being as great as his father.

    “The great Mike Wallace was a friend of mine,” Trump said. “He was a tough cookie and he was great. And the son is only a tiny action of Mike, believe me.” If Trump’s comment ever stung him, Wallace is over it. “One of us has daddy issues, and it isn’t me,” he says.

    As a fact-check, Mike Wallace was not a “friend” of Trump’s, he was a journalist who interviewed Trump.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/trump-goes-after-fox-news-chris-wallace-after-shep-smith-departure/

  37. a r,

    You’d be amazed at the popularity of doing nothing.

    As Lord Vetinari once said… Well, you know the quote. I’ve posted it umpteen times before. But it’s true. Voters don’t want revolutionary reforms, they just want life to go on as normal.

    The truly amazing thing is that so few politicians recognise this.

  38. Trump claimed US was taking custody of 5 dozen ISIS prisoners — but troops didn’t get them in time

    There was a concern that the Turkish attacks on the U.S. Kurdish allies would free dozens of ISIS fighters that were captured by those on the ground. According to the Kurds, once Turkey began dropping bombs on the area, there wouldn’t be anyone who could stay to guard the prison.

    The last thing the U.S. military or any allies wanted was for terrorists to be freed by Turkey’s new war. But that’s exactly what happened. According to the New York Times, approximately five dozen ISIS prisoners and about 700 family members and sympathizers of the Islamic State fighters “escaped a Kurdish-run camp in northern Syria as Turkish-led assault unleashes chaos.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/trump-claimed-us-was-taking-custody-of-5-dozen-isis-prisoners-but-troops-didnt-get-them-before-they-were-freed/

  39. Lizzie
    One thing i notice with this government is it doesn’t get much done, they often talk about stuff but you later find out they still have not finished it.

  40. “I think the electorate will soon tire of his antics, his clear lack of sincerity, his smirk, and other personal characteristics. The man’s a sham.”

    I think the same, but then I remember how long we had Howard. If Labor continues with the Beasley lib-lite approach to opposition and the msm media continue to demonise labor and the greens and worship the libs (and 9Fauxfax are moving to the right as fast as you’d expected from LNP fundraisers), he could be there for a looooong time.

    hopefully the hubris the libs have from having scraped home will backfire in the same way Keating’s hubris after 1993 backfired greatly. Dutton still wants to be PM and he won’t be content let morrison be after a year or so. ditto Hunt and others. At some point the scheming will start. Was it confucius who said “A cluster of arseholes will not stick together”?

  41. Greg Jennet (unusually) made the excellent point that for all the talk of easing lending for homeowners, the drop in interest rates would probably make only $500 difference.

  42. Peter Newton
    3m
    SCUMMO claims credit for the RC into BANKS ….. after telling us it was a waste and voted against it 26 times ….. he is a HOAX #qt

    I think the word you wanted was charlatan.

  43. sustainable future
    Howard had the benefit of good economic conditions and a few poor ALP campaigns. Morrison is unlikely to get better economic conditions than now and the ALP surely wont dish up another rubbish campaign.

  45. Mexican

    Ignoring climate and energy policy will produce a recession.

    That’s if Trump wins. If not the world political view will change radically after Trump. It has to. Have a look at the Democratic platform. The debate is not should we be left. It’s how far left should we be?

  46. lizzie @ #1692 Monday, October 14th, 2019 – 2:13 pm

    Peter Newton
    3m
    SCUMMO claims credit for the RC into BANKS ….. after telling us it was a waste and voted against it 26 times ….. he is a HOAX #qt

    I think the word you wanted was charlatan.

    Still here for a moment or two, and noticed this from Amy:

    15m ago
    04:10
    Anthony Albanese to Scott Morrison:

    Where in the Prime Minister’s talking points for today is the Prime Minister’s description of the banking royal commission as “hollow populist nonsense”, and how is this description consistent with his new inquiry announced today? Will he just say anything at any time when it’s convenient?

    Morrison:

    I thank the Leader of the Opposition for his question. As he may recall, I was the Treasurer that initiated the banking royal commission, Mr Speaker…

    (Labor dissolves into laughter)…

  47. “You’ll have to read this yourselves to get the full flavour.
    Morrison says we should all pray more.”

    Thanks Lizzie
    that article makes me feel sick. It is terrifying that in the day and age that we have a PM who casts doubt on climate science and advice from all quarters saying Australia is not going to meet even weak emissions reduction targets, but believes his magical sky fairy is listening to prayers and intervening on his behalf. It is a form of delusion that belongs to the pre-enlightenment and has no place in our political discourse. The reason Family First no longer exists is because the LNP look them over.

  48. If Labor continues with the Beasley lib-lite approach to opposition

    I see you have absolutely ignored Kristina Kenneally’s contribution today, sustainable future, to dismembering Dutton’s talking points? And Penny Wong’s excellent contribution to the Coalition’s Trump-heavy foreign policy?

    But then you probably prefer things like Bandt’s parliamentary stunt.

  50. lizzie @ #1792 Monday, October 14th, 2019 – 1:08 pm

    Greg Jennet (unusually) made the excellent point that for all the talk of easing lending for homeowners, the drop in interest rates would probably make only $500 difference.

    In terms of annual repayments for people who already have a variable-rate mortgage, that’s probably true. It won’t make much difference.

    However the drop also means that people who don’t have a mortgage yet can be approved for significantly larger loans on the same level of income. That will tend to prop up the housing bubble, ensuring that real-estate remains both unaffordable to new entrants and vulnerable to an even more catastrohpic crash if/when rates ever start increasing. Every 0.25% cut adds about 10x that amount to the maximum sum a person can borrow.

    Cheap money seems like a good idea until someone decides that it all needs to be repaid, and faster.

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