The Poll Bludger’s popular Call of the Board series, in which results for each individual electorate at the May 18 federal election are being broken down region by region, underwent a bit of a hiatus over the past month or so after a laptop theft deprived me of my collection of geospatial files. However, it now returns in fine style by reviewing the business end of the state which, once again, proved to be the crucible of the entire election. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; and regional Victoria.
First up, the colour-coded maps below show the pattern of the two-party swing by allocating to each polling booth a geographic catchment area through a method that was described here (click for enlarged images). The first focuses on metropolitan Brisbane, while the second zooms out to further include the seats of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas (for which I will henceforth use the shorthand of the “inner urban effect”, occasionally contrasted with an “outer urban effect” that went the other way). However, they are also bluer overall, reflecting Labor’s generally poor show across Queensland (albeit not as poor in the south-east as in central Queensland).
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The seat-by-seat analysis is guided by comparison of the actual results with those estimated by two alternative metrics, which are laid out in the table below (using the two-party measure for Labor). The first of these, which I employ here for the first time, is a two-party estimate based on Senate rather than House of Representatives results. This is achieved using party vote totals for the Senate and allocating Greens, One Nation and “others” preferences using the flows recorded for the House. These results are of particular value in identifying the extent to which results reflected the popularity or otherwise of the sitting member.
The other metric consists of estimates derived from a linear regression model, in which relationships were measured between booths results and a range of demographic and geographic variables. This allows for observation of the extent to which results differed from what might have been expected of a given electorate based on its demography. Such a model was previously employed in the previous Call of the Board posts for Sydney and Melbourne. However, it may be less robust on this occasion as its estimates consistently landed on the high side for Labor. I have dealt with this by applying an across-the-board adjustment to bring the overall average in line with the actual results. Results for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats are not shown, owing to the difficulty involved in classifying them as metropolitan or regional (and I have found the model to be of limited value in regional electorates). The coefficients underlying the model can be viewed here.
And now to review each seat in turn:
Blair (Labor 1.2%; 6.9% swing to LNP): Shayne Neumann has held Blair since taking it from the Liberals in 2007, on the back of a favourable redistribution and Labor’s Kevin Rudd-inspired sweep across Queensland. His margins had hitherto been remarkably stable by Queensland standards, but this time he suffered a 9.8% drop in the primary vote (partly due to a more crowded field than last time), and his two-party margin compares with a previous low point of 4.2% in 2010. Nonetheless, the metrics suggest he did well to hang on: he outperformed the Senate measure, and the demographic measure was Labor’s weakest out of the six Queensland seats it actually won (largely a function of the electorate’s lack of ethnic diversity).
Bonner (LNP 7.4%; 4.0% swing to LNP): Bonner was a notionally Labor seat when it was created in 2004, and it says a lot about recent political history that they have only won it since at the high water mark of 2007. Ross Vasta has held it for the LNP for all but the one term from 2007 to 2010, and his new margin of 7.4% is easily the biggest he has yet enjoyed, the previous peak being 3.7% in 2013. Labor generally did better in swing terms around Mount Gravatt in the south-west of the electorate, for no reason immediately obvious reason.
Bowman (LNP 10.2%; 3.2% swing to LNP): Andrew Laming has held Bowman for the Liberals/LNP since it was reshaped with the creation of its northern neighbour Bonner in 2004, his closest scrape being a 64-vote winning margin with the Kevin Rudd aberration in 2007. This time he picked up a fairly typical swing of 3.2%, boosting his margin to 10.2%, a shade below his career best of 10.4% in 2013.
Brisbane (LNP 4.9%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Brisbane has been held for the Liberal National Party since a redistribution added the affluent Clayfield area in the electorate’s east in 2010, making it the only seat bearing the name of a state capital to be held by the Coalition since Adelaide went to Labor in 2004. The city end participated in the national trend to Labor in inner urban areas, but swings the other way around Clayfield and Alderley in the north-west reduced the swing to 1.1%. Trevor Evans, who has held the seat since 2016, outperformed both the Senate vote and the demographic model, his liberalism perhaps being a good fit for the electorate. Andrew Bartlett added 2.9% to the Greens primary vote in recording 22.4%, which would have been the party’s best ever result in a federal seat in Queensland had it not been surpassed in Griffith. This compared with Labor’s 24.5%, with Labor leading by 25.4% to 23.7% at the second last preference count.
Dickson (LNP 4.6%; 3.0% swing to LNP): The shared dream of Labor and GetUp! of unseating Peter Dutton hit the wall of two broader trends to the Coalition, in outer urban areas generally and Queensland specifically. However, as the map shows, there was a pronounced distinction between the affluent hills areas in the electorate’s south, which swung to Labor, and the working class suburbia of Kallangur, which went strongly the other way. Dutton’s result was well in line with the Senate vote, but actually slightly below par compared with the demographic model. It may be thought significant that One Nation struggled for air in competition with Dutton, scoring a modest 5.2%.
Fadden (LNP 14.2%; 2.9% swing to LNP): The three electorates of the Gold Coast all recorded below-average swings to the LNP, and were as always comfortably retained by the party in each case. Fadden accordingly remains secure for Stuart Robert, who had held it since 2007.
Fairfax (LNP 13.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): The northern Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax will forever wear the ignominy of having sent Clive Palmer to parliament in 2013, but Ted O’Brien recovered the seat for the Liberal National Party when Palmer bowed out of politics all-too-temporarily in 2016, and was uneventfully re-elected this time.
Fisher (LNP 12.7%; 3.6% swing to LNP): Second term LNP member Andrew Wallace did not enjoy a noticeable sophomore surge in his Sunshine Coast seat, picking up a slightly below par swing. All told though, this was an unexceptional result.
Forde (LNP 8.6%; 8.0% swing to LNP): This seat on Brisbane’s southern fringe maintained its recent habit of disappointing Labor, comfortably returning Bert van Manen, who gained it with the 2010 backlash after one term of Labor control. Reflecting the outer urban effect, van Manen gained the biggest swing to the LNP in south-east Queensland, and was able to achieve an improvement on the primary vote despite the entry of One Nation, who polled 11.8%. His 8.6% margin easily surpassed his previous career best of 4.4% in 2013, when his opponent was Peter Beattie.
Griffith (Labor 2.9%; 1.4% swing to Labor): It’s been touch and go for Labor’s Terri Butler since she succeeded Kevin Rudd at a by-election in 2014, but this time she was a beneficiary of the inner urban effect, which helped her eke out a 1.4% swing against the statewide trend. Of particular note was a surge in support for the Greens, who were up by 6.7% to 23.7%, their strongest result ever in a Queensland federal seat. Butler’s 31.0% primary vote was well below the LNP’s 41.0%, but Greens preferences were more than sufficient to make up the difference.
Lilley (Labor 0.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): One of the worst aspects of Labor’s thoroughly grim election night was newcomer Anika Wells’ struggle to retain Lilley upon the retirement of Wayne Swan, who himself experienced a career interruption in the seat when it was lost in the landslide of 1996. However, the metrics suggest the 5.0% swing was fuelled by the loss of Swan’s personal vote, showing barely any difference between the actual result and the Senate and demographic measures. The Labor primary vote plunged 8.1%, partly reflecting the entry of One Nation, who scored 5.3%.
Longman (LNP GAIN 3.3%; 4.1% swing to LNP): One of the two seats gained by the LNP from Labor in Queensland, together with the Townsville-based seat of Herbert (which will be covered in the next episode), Longman can be viewed two ways: in comparison with the 2016 election or the July 2018 by-election, which more than anything served as the catalyst for Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. On the former count, the 4.1% swing was broadly in line with the statewide trend, and comfortably sufficed to account for Susan Lamb’s 0.8% margin when she unseated Wyatt Roy in 2016. On the latter, the result amounted to a reversal of 7.7% in two-party terms, with victorious LNP candidate Terry Young doing 9.0% better on the primary vote than defeated by-election candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, recording 38.6%. One Nation scored 13.2%, which compared with 9.4% in 2016 and 15.9% at the by-election. Lamb actually outperformed the Senate and especially the demographic metric, suggesting a sophomore surge may have been buried within the broader outer urban effect. Despite the electorate’s demographic divide between working class Caboolture and retiree Bribie Island, the swing was consistent throughout the electorate.
McPherson (LNP 12.2%; 0.6% swing to LNP): As noted above in relation to Fadden, the results from the three Gold Coast seats did not provide good copy. McPherson produced a negligible swing in favour of LNP incumbent Karen Andrews, with both major parties slightly down on the primary vote, mostly due to the entry of One Nation with 5.9%.
Moncrieff (LNP 15.4%; 0.8% swing to LNP): The third of the Gold Coast seats was vacated with the retirement of Steve Ciobo, but the result was little different from neighbouring McPherson. On the right, a fall in the LNP primary vote roughly matched the 6.4% accounted for by the entry of One Nation; on the left, Animal Justice’s 3.9% roughly matched the drop in the Labor vote, while the Greens held steady. The collective stasis between left and right was reflected in the minor two-party swing.
Moreton (Labor 1.9%; 2.1% swing to LNP): This seat is something of an anomaly for Queensland in that it was held by the Liberals throughout the Howard years, but has since remained with Labor. This partly reflects a 1.3% shift in the redistribution before the 2007 election, at which it was gained for Labor by the current member, Graham Perrett. The swing on this occasion was slightly at the low end of the Queensland scale, thanks to the inner urban effect at the electorate’s northern end. Relatedly, it was a particularly good result for the Greens, whose primary vote improved from 12.7% to 16.8%.
Oxley (Labor 6.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): Only Pauline Hanson’s historic win in 1996 has prevented this seat from sharing with Rankin the distinction of being the only Queensland seat to stay with Labor through recent history. Second term member Milton Dick was not seriously endangered on this occasion, his two-party margin being clipped only slightly amid modest shifts on the primary vote as compared with the 2016 result.
Petrie (LNP 8.4%; 6.8% swing to LNP): This seat maintained a bellwether record going back to 1987 by giving Labor one of its most dispiriting results of the election, which no doubt left LNP member Luke Howarth feeling vindicated in his agitation for a leadership change after the party’s poor by-election result in neighbouring Longman. Howarth strongly outperformed both the Senate and especially the demographic metrics, after also recording a favourable swing against the trend in 2016. He also managed a 3.4% improvement on the primary vote, despite facing new competition from One Nation, who polled 7.5% – exactly equal to the primary vote swing against Labor.
Rankin (Labor 6.4%; 4.9% swing to LNP): Rankin retained its status as Labor’s safest seat in Queensland, but only just: the margin was 6.44% at the second decimal place, compared with 6.39% in Oxley. Jim Chalmers copped a 7.9% hit on the primary vote in the face of new competition from One Nation (8.6%) and the United Australia Party (3.7%), while both the LNP and the Greens were up by a little under 3%. Nonetheless, Chalmers strongly outperformed both the Senate and demographic metrics. That the latter scarcely recognises Rankin as a Labor seat reflects the electorate’s large Chinese population, which at this election associated negatively with Labor support in metropolitan areas.
Ryan (LNP 6.0%; 3.0% swing to Labor): LNP newcomer Julian Simmonds was in no way threatened, but he suffered the biggest of the three swings against his party in Queensland, all of which were recorded in inner Brisbane. As well as the inner urban effect, this no doubt reflects ill-feeling arising from his preselection coup against Jane Prentice. It is tempting to imagine what might have happened if Prentice sought to press the issue by running as an independent.
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Does anyone know if the next President can release all of Trump’s phone transcripts or do they need to be held under lock & key for x number of years.?
Zoomster
Identify the Seats Labor lost because of that approach.
You can’t. You are guessing. Just like the rest of us. At least I used election results in my answer. Your different voting systems is just another right talking point.
We certainly don’t know what the political landscape is going to look like by the time of the next Federal election
guytaur
I have. Indeed, all you need to do is look at William’s post at the top of this thread to work that out.
‘We certainly don’t know what the political landscape is going to look like by the time of the next Federal election..’
No, so why demand that Labor make any particular commitments to anything at this point in time?
If our recent experiences are anything to go by, Robocop is seriously irritating large numbers of people on the health card. The experience includes:
1. The expenditure of hours on the phone and during visits to Centrelink to ‘resolve’ issues that did not exist in the first place.
2. Receiving repeated peremptory demands for documents that have already been presented and that are already on file in Centrelink.
3. Receiving peremptory demands for documents to be presented within absurd time frames. This in one case was matched by ‘fake’ dating on the letter of demand that implied we had had the letter for a fortnight.
4. Demand letters sent to the wrong addressee.
5. Demand letters sent twice to the same addressee.
6. Peremptory demands for documents to be provided immediately when they are normally produced some time in the future at the end of some unrelated process. The documents don’t exist and they can’t possibly exist.
7. Repeated threats to withdraw our health cards if we fail to comply with the peremptory demands.
I sincerely hope that Robocop bastardry is causing unhappiness to every single pensioner and every single health card holder who voted for the Coalition because they thought that Robocop was bastardizing Newstart recipients and not real people like them.
Haha!
Everybody hates me, even my loyal(?) friends:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trumps-loyal-supporters-turn-on-him-over-decision-to-withdraw-from-northern-syria/news-story/4942eb2895b9f15e8a5f22e8bd88ef79
That’s what you get for building a house of straw, turning the presidency into a Mafia-like lair.
Mr Trump built his house from bullshit, bluster, cheating, lying, bullying, braggadocio, bribery, sneers, threats, payola, crapola, nepotism, cronyism and theft.
Would could possibly go wrong?
Boer
In some cases, I had to ‘invent’ documents just to move on to the next step in a process with Centrelink – that is, I created a document which, when opened, said “I don’t know why Centrelink requires this information and I can’t provide it.”
Worked like a charm, when I finally got through to a human being we sorted out what I actually needed to provide and why.
Boerwar @ #1010 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 4:44 pm
Boer
You have just articulated why I think RoboDebt, Indue Card and the lack of real service from Job Search Agencies and Centrelink are going to be the Work Choices of the next election.
z
You clever thing! Creating alternative reality to meet the unreal demands of Robocop!
Check out the discrepancies between the various maps!
https://www.google.com/search?q=where+do+kurds+live&client=firefox-b-d&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=ut_1jIUvrJBn7M%253A%252CEPaVcw7iGOSSgM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kQWEwLWNR8KCnFC3163prnA0_T1PA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj66c-u94vlAhU263MBHeueDdIQ9QEwAHoECAUQAw#imgrc=ut_1jIUvrJBn7M:
zoomster @ #996 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 4:32 pm
It is not my timetable that matters. There is a timer ticking down, but no-one is quite sure how many years are left on the clock. But it is just years – not even decades.
Labor needed to win -what? 5 additional seats? There are 5 seats that were won by the LNP under 53% (4 under 52%, 2 under 51%) and in total about 25 seats that are considered “marginal”. How many voters is that whose vote you needed to change? Or to motivate enough to actually vote at all? By my reckoning, that’s a few thousand votes in each seat, or about 14,000 voters in total. **
Perhaps this one issue of Adani alone might have shifted that many votes in some seats. But most likely not. However, I am fairly sure that a solid policy platform on the related issues could have shifted that many votes.
** yes, I know this is overly simplistic, and also hindsight is a wonderful thing – but we are not talking about subtle issues here. If Labor had adopted a truly “pro worker” platform, with rational population and climate change policies, and addressed the issues of industrial disruption, they would probably have romped home – “in a canter”, to coin a phrase.
zoomster
When documents have to pass through the clerk with the lowest level of computer skills (and practical experience) to get up to the next level, things can get held up with no explanation forthcoming. My solar panel application was rejected twice, until I attached a supposedly missing doc for the third time with instructions to look at page 2.!
?
Other than simplification, they look kinda similar.
Simon Katich @ #990 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 3:19 pm
The upshot being that the US loses its ability to play global policy dictator.
MexB
I dont know the answer. I believe it is complicated by various laws and national security classifications. Not sure how much control a future president would have over declassifying and releasing.
One can only hope that whistleblowers keep coming forth so at least some elements of Congress get to see the transcripts.
https://www.archives.gov/research/declassification.html
Oops! Actually, Labor did not need to win 5 seats – I was forgetting the cross-bench! So around 10,000 votes or possibly even less would have done the job.
‘Simon Katich says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 5:00 pm
Check out the discrepancies between the various maps!
?
Other than simplification, they look kinda similar.’
As an example of why the variations matter, check the areas immediately to the south of the Turkish border along the length of Turkey’s southern border.
Any assessment of the situation must take into account the effect of rapid change, vacuums and chaos in global security. Regardless of your thoughts of American hegemony (I have certainly made strong criticism in the past); order has benefits and international relations chaos is not to be taken lightly.
A reminder that NATO shares responsibility for whatever Turkish forces do in Rojava.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/americas-kurdish-allies-syria-turkey-nato
If the LNP can’t bring themselves to do anything else, they might consider doing something more practical for firefighters, such as providing more water bombers.
An animated history of who paid taxes, 1950 – 2018. I’m guessing the animation is based on US-only data. The graphic spruiks their book, but even with that grain of salt it’s worth 12 seconds.
https://twitter.com/gabriel_zucman/status/1181009202837254144
All maps are made for a purpose and with an audience in mind. Rubbish in rubbish is never more true than in GIS.
I got a tour of the backrooms of the Security Council by the DPKO GIS operator. I have also worked with many GIS operators in mining and engineering firms. I can tell you, their maps are pretty but….. indicative. Designed for one purpose but often used for others.
If your point is that the true location of kurdish peoples and if they correlate to their historic claims – I point you to just about every territorial conflict that ever there was.
If you are interested – have a read on the efforts by the UN Ethiopia-Eritrea border delimitation and demarcation. After many many years… they pretty much gave up, leaving not much more than a line on a map that nobody agreed with.
Well, the MSM have finally caught up with this! Labor has questions to answer.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1181454951551254528
Ah, but we don’t care if they arrive by plane. Because we’re a kind and compassionate nation and the only reason we got all upset over the boats was because sometimes the boats sank and people died. Any asylum seekers who can get here by plane are entirely welcome.
Right?
More than 95,000 asylum seekers have arrived in Australia by plane over the past five years triggering fears over exploitation and slavery.
New figures have revealed about 80 people per day since the start of July have claimed protection after landing at an Australian airport.
But the Morrison government has defended its border protection policies, saying the number of arrivals actually dropped last year, compared to the previous one.
The figures were disclosed in answers to Questions on Notice from Labor’s spokesperson for Home Affairs and Immigration Kristina Keneally.
“There’s nothing wrong with claiming asylum. It’s an important right,” Senator Keneally said.
“However, in 90 per cent of these particular cases, the individuals are not legitimate refugees and are often being trafficked to Australia for the explicit purpose of being exploited.”
My guess, if we were into doxing PB contributors, which we aren’t, is that Watermelon is Jim Casey, The Greens’ great Red Socialist hope in Grayndler.
LOL
I can see the headlines tomorrow. “Libs soft on Asylum Seekers”!
Will Morrison transmute on water matters into up in the air matters.
Boerwar @ #1028 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 5:48 pm
He might be interested in transubstantiation if he was a fair dinkum Christian.
But Morrison is too much wine, not enough wafer for my taste.
PB fire weather, 6pm, a relatively cooler 36, from ~40, with strong westerly 20-35 km/h, worse conditions than a month ago I’d say
Three emergency fire declarations from Tenterfield to the east and south
Pretty much 5 weeks straight for the local firies, from the north to the south of the Clarence and Richmond river catchments, just change in intensity. Plus not having water and resources to put out fires not threatening houses mostly.
Smoke to the north indicates SE Qld is burning again too
Almost halfway through spring, who’s looking forward to this summer?
No emergency right. Say nothing, do nothing and it will all go away.
Tapper on Trump and Syria… with a snippet of Fox and Friends also raging against him.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/media/2019/10/07/fox-news-trump-syria-troops-lead-vpx.cnn
If Fox and Friends think its a bad idea… maybe I need to reassess.
Quoll
Absolutely there’s an emergency, but it’s not one a party in Opposition can do much about.
So in Dutton’s worldview, we now have “good” asylum seekers coming by plane, not “bad” asylum seekers coming by boat.
Dutton’s mate the Immigration minister (whoever he is) was on Ch 7 following Kristina Keneally literally shouting that Labor had somehow “shot itself in the foot” without even addressing the issue. Of course, shouting slogans is about all the LNP has these days.
I hope the Andrews government is preparing for a nightmarish summer.
It could be a nightmarish summer across much of Australia.
I don’t want to keep on bout it, but-
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/water-efficiency-programs-bankrolling-private-dams-20191008-p52ymq
Labor need to win 10 seats from the LNP to form a majority government.
citizen
says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 6:20 pm
nath says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 6:17 pm
I hope the Andrews government is preparing for a nightmarish summer.
It could be a nightmarish summer across much of Australia.
_____________________________
Honestly. I am not going to endure another heat wave such as Melbourne experienced in 2009 during the bushfire disaster. Even with air conditioning it was unbearable. If consecutive days of 40+ are forecasted I will be jumping on the Spirit of Tasmania or perhaps even heading to NZ for a week.
zoomster @ #1032 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
Maybe she can spit in the general direction of the fires.
4% swing if uniform?
Simon Katich @ #1041 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 6:26 pm
If the swing is on, then it’s on.
Labor just have to get their shit together to win.
lizzie + others
Listening to Background Briefing over the weekend they had a very interesting story on our ability to fight fires into the future given the climate crisis.
If you didn’t catch it here it is.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/australian-bushfires-future/11572014
mikehilliard
Yes, I heard part of that and it was not a good story. That was what I was thinking about. The govt is letting us down on all fronts.
zoomster @ #1032 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 6:14 pm
Jeez, what an attitude. You may as well give up on the next election right now 🙁
It can be managed. At great cost. Early detection through ultra sensitive geostationary satellites and rapid deployment of serious resources like waterbombers and crack on the ground teams.
lizzie
I thought you would have heard it, scary stuff.
BTW I think Background Briefing is an excellent program, still some hope in the ABC.
P1
Well, you’re welcome to outline what Labor can do at present – jump up and down a lot? Write a couple of stern letters to Scotty?
As for the next election, no one out there in voter world is even thinking about it yet. Nothing Labor does or doesn’t do at the moment will have the slightest effect on the outcome.
‘Early detection through ultra sensitive geostationary satellites and rapid deployment of serious resources like waterbombers and crack on the ground teams.’
Alas, no.
The experience here has been over one hundred fires starting within minutes of each other, due to dry lightning strikes. They were all located, but the crack teams could only get to so many. The ones they couldn’t get to were in inaccessible locations. Only a handful of these got away, but that was enough to burn more Victoria than had ever been burnt before, over a period of months.
Once a fire reaches a certain size – and not a very big one – the only thing that will stop it is rain.
zoomster @ #1048 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
It’s already happening. All Labor needs to do is get on board.
You and Andrew Earlwood. Navel Gazing specialists! 🙁