Call of the board: South-East Queensland

How good was Queensland? The Poll Bludger reports – you decide.

The Poll Bludger’s popular Call of the Board series, in which results for each individual electorate at the May 18 federal election are being broken down region by region, underwent a bit of a hiatus over the past month or so after a laptop theft deprived me of my collection of geospatial files. However, it now returns in fine style by reviewing the business end of the state which, once again, proved to be the crucible of the entire election. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; and regional Victoria.

First up, the colour-coded maps below show the pattern of the two-party swing by allocating to each polling booth a geographic catchment area through a method that was described here (click for enlarged images). The first focuses on metropolitan Brisbane, while the second zooms out to further include the seats of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas (for which I will henceforth use the shorthand of the “inner urban effect”, occasionally contrasted with an “outer urban effect” that went the other way). However, they are also bluer overall, reflecting Labor’s generally poor show across Queensland (albeit not as poor in the south-east as in central Queensland).

The seat-by-seat analysis is guided by comparison of the actual results with those estimated by two alternative metrics, which are laid out in the table below (using the two-party measure for Labor). The first of these, which I employ here for the first time, is a two-party estimate based on Senate rather than House of Representatives results. This is achieved using party vote totals for the Senate and allocating Greens, One Nation and “others” preferences using the flows recorded for the House. These results are of particular value in identifying the extent to which results reflected the popularity or otherwise of the sitting member.

The other metric consists of estimates derived from a linear regression model, in which relationships were measured between booths results and a range of demographic and geographic variables. This allows for observation of the extent to which results differed from what might have been expected of a given electorate based on its demography. Such a model was previously employed in the previous Call of the Board posts for Sydney and Melbourne. However, it may be less robust on this occasion as its estimates consistently landed on the high side for Labor. I have dealt with this by applying an across-the-board adjustment to bring the overall average in line with the actual results. Results for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats are not shown, owing to the difficulty involved in classifying them as metropolitan or regional (and I have found the model to be of limited value in regional electorates). The coefficients underlying the model can be viewed here.

And now to review each seat in turn:

Blair (Labor 1.2%; 6.9% swing to LNP): Shayne Neumann has held Blair since taking it from the Liberals in 2007, on the back of a favourable redistribution and Labor’s Kevin Rudd-inspired sweep across Queensland. His margins had hitherto been remarkably stable by Queensland standards, but this time he suffered a 9.8% drop in the primary vote (partly due to a more crowded field than last time), and his two-party margin compares with a previous low point of 4.2% in 2010. Nonetheless, the metrics suggest he did well to hang on: he outperformed the Senate measure, and the demographic measure was Labor’s weakest out of the six Queensland seats it actually won (largely a function of the electorate’s lack of ethnic diversity).

Bonner (LNP 7.4%; 4.0% swing to LNP): Bonner was a notionally Labor seat when it was created in 2004, and it says a lot about recent political history that they have only won it since at the high water mark of 2007. Ross Vasta has held it for the LNP for all but the one term from 2007 to 2010, and his new margin of 7.4% is easily the biggest he has yet enjoyed, the previous peak being 3.7% in 2013. Labor generally did better in swing terms around Mount Gravatt in the south-west of the electorate, for no reason immediately obvious reason.

Bowman (LNP 10.2%; 3.2% swing to LNP): Andrew Laming has held Bowman for the Liberals/LNP since it was reshaped with the creation of its northern neighbour Bonner in 2004, his closest scrape being a 64-vote winning margin with the Kevin Rudd aberration in 2007. This time he picked up a fairly typical swing of 3.2%, boosting his margin to 10.2%, a shade below his career best of 10.4% in 2013.

Brisbane (LNP 4.9%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Brisbane has been held for the Liberal National Party since a redistribution added the affluent Clayfield area in the electorate’s east in 2010, making it the only seat bearing the name of a state capital to be held by the Coalition since Adelaide went to Labor in 2004. The city end participated in the national trend to Labor in inner urban areas, but swings the other way around Clayfield and Alderley in the north-west reduced the swing to 1.1%. Trevor Evans, who has held the seat since 2016, outperformed both the Senate vote and the demographic model, his liberalism perhaps being a good fit for the electorate. Andrew Bartlett added 2.9% to the Greens primary vote in recording 22.4%, which would have been the party’s best ever result in a federal seat in Queensland had it not been surpassed in Griffith. This compared with Labor’s 24.5%, with Labor leading by 25.4% to 23.7% at the second last preference count.

Dickson (LNP 4.6%; 3.0% swing to LNP): The shared dream of Labor and GetUp! of unseating Peter Dutton hit the wall of two broader trends to the Coalition, in outer urban areas generally and Queensland specifically. However, as the map shows, there was a pronounced distinction between the affluent hills areas in the electorate’s south, which swung to Labor, and the working class suburbia of Kallangur, which went strongly the other way. Dutton’s result was well in line with the Senate vote, but actually slightly below par compared with the demographic model. It may be thought significant that One Nation struggled for air in competition with Dutton, scoring a modest 5.2%.

Fadden (LNP 14.2%; 2.9% swing to LNP): The three electorates of the Gold Coast all recorded below-average swings to the LNP, and were as always comfortably retained by the party in each case. Fadden accordingly remains secure for Stuart Robert, who had held it since 2007.

Fairfax (LNP 13.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): The northern Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax will forever wear the ignominy of having sent Clive Palmer to parliament in 2013, but Ted O’Brien recovered the seat for the Liberal National Party when Palmer bowed out of politics all-too-temporarily in 2016, and was uneventfully re-elected this time.

Fisher (LNP 12.7%; 3.6% swing to LNP): Second term LNP member Andrew Wallace did not enjoy a noticeable sophomore surge in his Sunshine Coast seat, picking up a slightly below par swing. All told though, this was an unexceptional result.

Forde (LNP 8.6%; 8.0% swing to LNP): This seat on Brisbane’s southern fringe maintained its recent habit of disappointing Labor, comfortably returning Bert van Manen, who gained it with the 2010 backlash after one term of Labor control. Reflecting the outer urban effect, van Manen gained the biggest swing to the LNP in south-east Queensland, and was able to achieve an improvement on the primary vote despite the entry of One Nation, who polled 11.8%. His 8.6% margin easily surpassed his previous career best of 4.4% in 2013, when his opponent was Peter Beattie.

Griffith (Labor 2.9%; 1.4% swing to Labor): It’s been touch and go for Labor’s Terri Butler since she succeeded Kevin Rudd at a by-election in 2014, but this time she was a beneficiary of the inner urban effect, which helped her eke out a 1.4% swing against the statewide trend. Of particular note was a surge in support for the Greens, who were up by 6.7% to 23.7%, their strongest result ever in a Queensland federal seat. Butler’s 31.0% primary vote was well below the LNP’s 41.0%, but Greens preferences were more than sufficient to make up the difference.

Lilley (Labor 0.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): One of the worst aspects of Labor’s thoroughly grim election night was newcomer Anika Wells’ struggle to retain Lilley upon the retirement of Wayne Swan, who himself experienced a career interruption in the seat when it was lost in the landslide of 1996. However, the metrics suggest the 5.0% swing was fuelled by the loss of Swan’s personal vote, showing barely any difference between the actual result and the Senate and demographic measures. The Labor primary vote plunged 8.1%, partly reflecting the entry of One Nation, who scored 5.3%.

Longman (LNP GAIN 3.3%; 4.1% swing to LNP): One of the two seats gained by the LNP from Labor in Queensland, together with the Townsville-based seat of Herbert (which will be covered in the next episode), Longman can be viewed two ways: in comparison with the 2016 election or the July 2018 by-election, which more than anything served as the catalyst for Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. On the former count, the 4.1% swing was broadly in line with the statewide trend, and comfortably sufficed to account for Susan Lamb’s 0.8% margin when she unseated Wyatt Roy in 2016. On the latter, the result amounted to a reversal of 7.7% in two-party terms, with victorious LNP candidate Terry Young doing 9.0% better on the primary vote than defeated by-election candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, recording 38.6%. One Nation scored 13.2%, which compared with 9.4% in 2016 and 15.9% at the by-election. Lamb actually outperformed the Senate and especially the demographic metric, suggesting a sophomore surge may have been buried within the broader outer urban effect. Despite the electorate’s demographic divide between working class Caboolture and retiree Bribie Island, the swing was consistent throughout the electorate.

McPherson (LNP 12.2%; 0.6% swing to LNP): As noted above in relation to Fadden, the results from the three Gold Coast seats did not provide good copy. McPherson produced a negligible swing in favour of LNP incumbent Karen Andrews, with both major parties slightly down on the primary vote, mostly due to the entry of One Nation with 5.9%.

Moncrieff (LNP 15.4%; 0.8% swing to LNP): The third of the Gold Coast seats was vacated with the retirement of Steve Ciobo, but the result was little different from neighbouring McPherson. On the right, a fall in the LNP primary vote roughly matched the 6.4% accounted for by the entry of One Nation; on the left, Animal Justice’s 3.9% roughly matched the drop in the Labor vote, while the Greens held steady. The collective stasis between left and right was reflected in the minor two-party swing.

Moreton (Labor 1.9%; 2.1% swing to LNP): This seat is something of an anomaly for Queensland in that it was held by the Liberals throughout the Howard years, but has since remained with Labor. This partly reflects a 1.3% shift in the redistribution before the 2007 election, at which it was gained for Labor by the current member, Graham Perrett. The swing on this occasion was slightly at the low end of the Queensland scale, thanks to the inner urban effect at the electorate’s northern end. Relatedly, it was a particularly good result for the Greens, whose primary vote improved from 12.7% to 16.8%.

Oxley (Labor 6.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): Only Pauline Hanson’s historic win in 1996 has prevented this seat from sharing with Rankin the distinction of being the only Queensland seat to stay with Labor through recent history. Second term member Milton Dick was not seriously endangered on this occasion, his two-party margin being clipped only slightly amid modest shifts on the primary vote as compared with the 2016 result.

Petrie (LNP 8.4%; 6.8% swing to LNP): This seat maintained a bellwether record going back to 1987 by giving Labor one of its most dispiriting results of the election, which no doubt left LNP member Luke Howarth feeling vindicated in his agitation for a leadership change after the party’s poor by-election result in neighbouring Longman. Howarth strongly outperformed both the Senate and especially the demographic metrics, after also recording a favourable swing against the trend in 2016. He also managed a 3.4% improvement on the primary vote, despite facing new competition from One Nation, who polled 7.5% – exactly equal to the primary vote swing against Labor.

Rankin (Labor 6.4%; 4.9% swing to LNP): Rankin retained its status as Labor’s safest seat in Queensland, but only just: the margin was 6.44% at the second decimal place, compared with 6.39% in Oxley. Jim Chalmers copped a 7.9% hit on the primary vote in the face of new competition from One Nation (8.6%) and the United Australia Party (3.7%), while both the LNP and the Greens were up by a little under 3%. Nonetheless, Chalmers strongly outperformed both the Senate and demographic metrics. That the latter scarcely recognises Rankin as a Labor seat reflects the electorate’s large Chinese population, which at this election associated negatively with Labor support in metropolitan areas.

Ryan (LNP 6.0%; 3.0% swing to Labor): LNP newcomer Julian Simmonds was in no way threatened, but he suffered the biggest of the three swings against his party in Queensland, all of which were recorded in inner Brisbane. As well as the inner urban effect, this no doubt reflects ill-feeling arising from his preselection coup against Jane Prentice. It is tempting to imagine what might have happened if Prentice sought to press the issue by running as an independent.

ANNOUNCEMENT: If this painstakingly compiled post interested you enough that you have made it all the way through to the end, perhaps you might care to make a donation. These are gratefully received via the “become a supporter” button that appears just below, or the PressPatron button at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,593 comments on “Call of the board: South-East Queensland”

  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Jess Irvine, in a longish article, says that as Australia teeters on the edge of deploying unconventional monetary policies, the future direction of potential government action appears opaque.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/wow-we-re-like-them-now-all-eyes-on-the-economy-as-australia-joins-the-low-rates-club-20191004-p52xog.html
    Ian Macfarlane, who headed the RBA for 10 years until 2006, believes any further interest rate cuts will have very little power to do anything useful.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6423021/too-much-faith-in-cuts-former-rba-boss/?cs=14231
    Ben Doherty wonders if Scott Morrison’s Lowy speech a pivot towards Trumpism.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/06/delicate-moment-was-scott-morrisons-lowy-speech-a-pivot-towards-trumpism
    “If only we listened to the poor as much as we listen to religious people”, laments Michael Koziol who uncorks plenty of bottled up frustration.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-only-we-listened-to-the-poor-as-much-as-we-listen-to-religious-people-20191003-p52x8n.html
    “My plea to the NDIS, on behalf of myself and others who are desperately trying to navigate the system: step up and meet your own goals – to save and improve lives. Please catch me. I’m falling”, writes partial paraplegic and GP Kathryn O’Connor.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/a-plea-to-the-ndis-please-catch-me-i-m-falling-20191004-p52xmg.html
    Consumer law advocate Bridgette Rose says that the government should be backing ASIC, not the banks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/government-should-be-backing-asic-not-the-banks-20191003-p52xbg.html
    Greg Jericho says, “If the PM thought money for farmers was ‘welfare’, they’d be getting robodebt notices” as he really unloads on Morrison.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/oct/06/if-the-pm-thought-money-for-farmers-was-welfare-theyd-be-getting-robodebt-notices
    Adele Ferguson reports on some serious spivery occurring in dentistry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/secret-dentist-incentives-drive-growth-in-teeth-straighteners-20191002-p52x37.html
    Peter FitzSimons says blaming Downer as part of a Trump conspiracy is absolutely absurd.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/blaming-downer-as-part-of-a-trump-conspiracy-is-absolutely-absurd-20191004-p52xn7.html
    Now Trump has taken a vulgar swipe at Mitt Romney.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-takes-vulgar-swipe-at-romney-after-senator-criticises-president-s-china-ukraine-appeals-20191006-p52xzc.html
    Is THIS what job creation in Australia is all about?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/inside-the-helter-skelter-world-of-food-delivery-bike-riders-20190812-p52g5z.html
    The ABS, whose minister is Michael Sukkar, seems to be further marginalising the LGBTIQ in the framing of its questions for the 2021 census.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/05/questions-about-sexual-orientation-and-gender-identity-dumped-from-census
    The Coalition is looking at boosting housing prices in order to achieve its promised surplus, writes Tarric Brooker who says it is mortgaging all our futures.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-morrison-government-is-mortgaging-all-our-futures,13176
    The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has said Boris Johnson’s government will have to bear full responsibility for a no-deal Brexit, as more than three years of talks between the UK and Brussels appeared on the brink of collapse last night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/05/michel-barnier-blame-boris-johnson-brexit-talks-eu-uk
    A second intelligence official is reportedly considering filing a whistleblower complaint about Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine as the Democrats’ impeachment investigation into the president and his administration continues to escalate.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/05/trump-second-whistleblower-complaint-ukraine-latest
    Simon Tisdall opines that if Donald Trump goes down, he’ll try to take everyone with him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/05/donald-trump-take-everyone-with-him
    A sustained gastro outbreak on the Indian Pacific train from Sydney to Perth has left more than 100 passengers sick, including two who had to be hospitalised. This is going to cost!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/05/gastro-outbreak-indian-pacific-trai/

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/def983209155af238c875f0762102d8d3a6f3dd3,jpg


    Glen Le Lievre and Trump’s effusions.

    Reg Lynch certainly sums up what the government has created for itself.

    Alan Moir goes to “the swamp”.

    From the US



  2. My thoughts exactly (from the last thread):

    Douglas and Milko (Block)
    Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 12:07 am
    Comment #1054
    I get so sick of people on this blog telling me “I do not get this science” because I am not totally in support of their latest stunt.

    But, if you deal with something called radiative transfer (see e.g. http://www.astro.spbu.ru/sobolev100/sites/default/files/p3_Nagirner.pdfO), in your work life, including consulting on atmospheric physics, you just feel like crying when you are told you “do not accept the science”.

    I think Greta Thunberg and the people supporting her have been fantastic for getting out the “young ” vote in various jurisdictions, and generally raising awareness that anthropogenic global warming is going to lead to catastrophic outcomes for some humans.

    But, we also need to understand the science – Yes, stop burning fossil fuels now, ASAP, but understand that the global warming we are seeing now is due to fossil fuel burning around 70 – 100 years ago.

    The fossil fuel burning we are undertaking now will have the biggest effect in around 50 – 100 years. Very bad, but in no way does this justify hurting people in the developing world so our lovely white wealthy grandkids have a slightly better climate.

    We are now well into the mitigation phase.

    Not sure? I will happily provide you with the the equations of radiative transfer, so you can draw your own conclusions.

    And, if you cannot put together a simple computational model of the equations of radiative transfer – it is not that hard – please do not @me about how you know so much more about climate models than I do !!!!!!!

  3. Trump declares war on ‘pompous ass’ Mitt Romney for calling his China Biden overtures ‘appalling’

    “Mitt Romney never knew how to win. He is a pompous “ass” who has been fighting me from the beginning, except when he begged me for my endorsement for his Senate run (I gave it to him), and when he begged me to be Secretary of State (I didn’t give it to him). He is so bad for R’s!”

    Claiming without evidence that voters in Utah are turning on their senator, Trump claimed, “I’m hearing that the Great People of Utah are considering their vote for their Pompous Senator, Mitt Romney, to be a big mistake. I agree! He is a fool who is playing right into the hands of the Do Nothing Democrats!” followed by: #IMPEACHMITTROMNEY

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/trump-calls-for-impeachment-of-mitt-romney-for-criticizing-him-in-rambling-tweet/

  4. MSNBC’s Scarborough burns Trump down for Romney attack: He’s ‘a winner in so many ways that you will never be’

    Responding to Trump’s Twitter tirade at Romney for calling his conduct “appalling,” Scarborough wrote: Mitt is a winner in so many ways that you will never be. Also, history will be kind to Senator Romney. You? Not so much. You’ll forever be remembered as the man who made James Buchanan the second worst president in American history. Congrats.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/10/msnbcs-scarborough-burns-trump-down-for-romney-attack-hes-a-winner-in-so-many-ways-that-you-will-never-be/

  5. U.S., North Korea break off nuclear talks: report

    U.S. and North Korean negotiators broke off high-level nuclear talks after months of negotiations between the two countries.

    Reuters reported Saturday that North Korea’s top official present for negotiations with the U.S. told reporters that the U.S. had brought nothing to the table for the latest round of talks.

    “The negotiations have not fulfilled our expectation and finally broke off,” Kim Myong Gil said.

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/464509-us-north-korea-break-off-nuclear-talks-report

  6. Reading William’s analysis

    As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas

    I am wondering whether it is time for political parties, especially Labor, to spend some time and money working out the characteristics of their current and future voters, if the LNP is moving to the right (suggested by a writer yesterday), and Labor no longer represents the ‘factory worker’ of the last century (likely to be replaced by robots).

    I’m not thinking of a simple political analysis of the voting by politicians, but a more sophisticated sociological study.

  7. Watching Chalmers on Speers now and it’s clear that Labor and the Govt aren’t serious about tackling the cartel arrangement of the big banks.

    Morrison and Chalmers talk a big game but it’s just useless noise.

  8. North West Protection Advocacy
    @NWPAdvocacy
    17h
    Ross McAlary from Coonamble in letter to @thelandnews points out Narrabri Gas Project is just Stage 1 of roll out of coal seam gas to a huge % of NSW- see map below. Yet, the inadequate environmental impact assessment only refers to the tiny foot in the door Stage 1.
    @IPC_NSW

  9. lizzie @ #6 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:06 am

    Reading William’s analysis

    As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas

    I am wondering whether it is time for political parties, especially Labor, to spend some time and money working out the characteristics of their current and future voters, if the LNP is moving to the right (suggested by a writer yesterday), and Labor no longer represents the ‘factory worker’ of the last century (likely to be replaced by robots).

    I’m not thinking of a simple political analysis of the voting by politicians, but a more sophisticated sociological study.

    What I think needs to be done is to figure out how you can get the SME vote back, which includes the Tradies and other Sub Contractors, as well as the Yummy Mummy Microbusinesswomen, who run a little aromatherapy and candle making business from home while they bring up the kids. Those sort of voters who are socially progressive, environmentally conscious and fiscally conservative. They also like the wealth effect of seeing their house prices continue to go up, which allows them to think they have a nest egg they can rely on. At the moment, reading the above, it looks to me like The Greens got some of their vote as well.

    Don’t ask me how you stop The Greens being anti Labor recalcitrants, to the detriment of both parties, though. 😐

  10. I was reading something the other day which showed Brisbane is the standout city in terms of building approvals (read houses being built at gangbusters pace). I wonder how much Labor’s policy of ending negative gearing factored into the results in SE Qld seats.

  11. lizzie,
    It must be so tiring for those farming communities to both fight the drought AND the big multinational fossil fuel companies. 🙁

  12. C@t

    Disturbing thread on Twitter showing London Territorial Support Group battering down the door of the Extinction Rebellion HQ in London. They arrested a few activists plus sound equipment, gazebos and some pink bean bags!! Must have been the word ‘Rebellion’ that upset them.

  13. Grog is a must read today!

    This isn’t welfare,” Scott Morrison told journalists this week as he stood in a farm in Dalby, Queensland to announce yet more funds ($7bn, don’t you know) for yet more drought relief because of yet more droughts.

    Of course it is not welfare. Perish the thought! If it were welfare then the prime minister and the rest of his government would be seeking ways to turn the lives of the farmers into misery – to belittle them with naked scorn and snide condescension.

    But heck, let not the absence of any horrendous welfare recipients nearby hold Morrison back from twisting the knife into the gut of those lacking the spiritual fortitude required to accumulate wealth.

    A day without slapping down the less deserving is like a day without prayer, and when you worship at a church that holds dear prosperity theology (well, you could hardly hold it cheap), then the two go hand in hand.

    After declaring “this isn’t – this isn’t welfare” (so horrendous is the suggestion, the phrase caught in his throat), Morrison added, “this is really just helping people make sure that they maintain a viability”.

    All those attempting to subsist on Newstart must be glad Morrison has finally come clean that he doesn’t believe welfare payments actually are about helping people maintain a viable life.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/oct/06/if-the-pm-thought-money-for-farmers-was-welfare-theyd-be-getting-robodebt-notices

  14. Fascinating call of the card in SEQ.

    Rankin is one of the bigger standouts as far as Labors disintegration goes. A shocking result.

  15. lizzie @ #16 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:46 am

    C@t

    Disturbing thread on Twitter showing London Territorial Support Group battering down the door of the Extinction Rebellion HQ in London. They arrested a few activists plus sound equipment, gazebos and some pink bean bags!! Must have been the word ‘Rebellion’ that upset them.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    It’s looking a lot like anarchy in the UK, lizzie. Just not the good kind promoted by the Sex Pistols et al. 🙁

  16. lizzie
    Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:46 am
    Comment #7

    I have just completed the Australia Talks – Where Do You Fit In? quiz from

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-06/australia-talks-explained/11570332

    I now need to revisit and change one of my answers.
    If pink bean bags are being arrested in Mr. Abbott’s mother country then we (who feel not so Orstayan) must be next. Depression R Us.

    A damned disgrace I tell ya (again and …. ad…….). Them damned pinko’s have a lot to answer for.

  17. C@tmomma @ #12 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:34 am

    lizzie @ #6 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:06 am

    Reading William’s analysis

    As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas

    I am wondering whether it is time for political parties, especially Labor, to spend some time and money working out the characteristics of their current and future voters, if the LNP is moving to the right (suggested by a writer yesterday), and Labor no longer represents the ‘factory worker’ of the last century (likely to be replaced by robots).

    I’m not thinking of a simple political analysis of the voting by politicians, but a more sophisticated sociological study.

    What I think needs to be done is to figure out how you can get the SME vote back, which includes the Tradies and other Sub Contractors, as well as the Yummy Mummy Microbusinesswomen, who run a little aromatherapy and candle making business from home while they bring up the kids. Those sort of voters who are socially progressive, environmentally conscious and fiscally conservative. They also like the wealth effect of seeing their house prices continue to go up, which allows them to think they have a nest egg they can rely on. At the moment, reading the above, it looks to me like The Greens got some of their vote as well.

    Don’t ask me how you stop The Greens being anti Labor recalcitrants, to the detriment of both parties, though. 😐

    You correctly identified ‘environmentally conscious’.

    Perhaps Labor should get off the fence re coal and abandon it’s alignment to the coal lobby donations.

  18. C@tmomma @ #18 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:48 am

    Grog is a must read today!

    This isn’t welfare,” Scott Morrison told journalists this week as he stood in a farm in Dalby, Queensland to announce yet more funds ($7bn, don’t you know) for yet more drought relief because of yet more droughts.

    Of course it is not welfare. Perish the thought! If it were welfare then the prime minister and the rest of his government would be seeking ways to turn the lives of the farmers into misery – to belittle them with naked scorn and snide condescension.

    But heck, let not the absence of any horrendous welfare recipients nearby hold Morrison back from twisting the knife into the gut of those lacking the spiritual fortitude required to accumulate wealth.

    A day without slapping down the less deserving is like a day without prayer, and when you worship at a church that holds dear prosperity theology (well, you could hardly hold it cheap), then the two go hand in hand.

    After declaring “this isn’t – this isn’t welfare” (so horrendous is the suggestion, the phrase caught in his throat), Morrison added, “this is really just helping people make sure that they maintain a viability”.

    All those attempting to subsist on Newstart must be glad Morrison has finally come clean that he doesn’t believe welfare payments actually are about helping people maintain a viable life.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/oct/06/if-the-pm-thought-money-for-farmers-was-welfare-theyd-be-getting-robodebt-notices

    It’s a pity the Govt couldn’t see their way to support car manufacturing as vigorously as they support farmers.

  19. Some good news.

    CNN InternationalVerified account@cnni
    6h6 hours ago
    Iran has released Australian couple Jolie King and Mark Firkin and dropped the charges against them, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said

  20. Morning all. Thanks BK for the wrap-up of the latest media entrails. Trump may finally be going down, at least in voters minds, with some credible dirt on him. We are going nowhere.

    William thanks for the really interesting wrap up of Qld, which explains a lot. Good news for Labor is it does not seem to have been the policies. Bad news is that leaves the policies and campaign itself. Given that the 2PP in the two inner seats the Greens did best in were least bad overall, the problem is Labor and right wing voters, not left wing. Somebody needs to tell them some hard truths about the economics of coal.

  21. C@tmomma @ #30 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 9:17 am

    Confessions @ #27 Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 9:12 am

    C@t:

    News Ltd articles can’t be Outlined anymore as I understand it.

    Yep. All you get now when you click on the link is an absolutely blank page! 😡

    I am (yet again) reloading my main desktop computer.

    I will put up a little from the article in a moment or so –coffee …..

    James Campbell, Sunday Herald Sun
    October 5, 2019 5:00pm
    Subscriber only

    Bill Shorten has taken full responsibility for his election loss, declaring he has to own the devastating defeat.

    “I have to — I’d have owned it if I won,’’ he told the Sunday Herald Sun.

    “One thing that I did decide immediately right in the hour when I realised that we were going to lose is that I should take responsibility — that’s why I stepped down as leader.

    “I just thought the buck stops with me at me so I’ve got take responsibility.”

    In his first major interview since being trounced in the shock May result, the man who came close to being Prime Minister has reflected on what went wrong.

    SHORTEN RULES OUT SECOND STINT AS LABOR LEADER

    Bill Shorten has ruled out returning to the Labor leadership but says he intends to stay in parliament for many years to come.

    In his first major interview since Labor was beaten at May’s federal election, the former Opposition Leader told the Sunday Herald Sun he had given up his ambition of being PM.

    “I’ve hung up my leadership running shoes and I support Anthony (Albanese),” he said.

    Pressed if wanted to be leader again, Mr Shorten was blunt: “No.”

    The 52-year-old said he took full responsibility for the loss to Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

    “I have to — I’d have owned it if I won,’’ he said.

    Lots more – above a small sample.

    Back to computer reload.

  22. I see Littleproud has one of those windmill thingies in the background. Not a fan of wind energy though. Likes the scientific principle, when it suits him, though.

  23. Trying to do too much and Labor’s pledge to abolish franking credit refunds were the two major reasons for his defeat.

    “I think we had too many messages in hindsight,” Mr Shorten said

    “In a universe where you can re-run things — of course we can’t — fewer messages.

    “I also accept that our proposals, our tax reforms around franking credits, created a sense of vulnerability and anxiety among older Australians which I clearly underestimated.”

    He said the danger the policy represented was not clear to him at the time.

    “In hindsight the risk was bigger than we realised based on the information that we had on our dashboard the risk seemed to be a manageable risk,” he said.

    “But now I accept just the holus bolus rollout of franking credits created an anxiety in parts of the community especially amongst older Australians, both in reality, but also left them susceptible to the argument that there were further changes.”

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/bill-shorten-accepts-responsibility-for-shock-may-election-defeat/news-story/0adbf057f38387013027af542667f723

    Rather than blame the policy itself how about blame the lack of salesmanship of the policy.

    Don’t just drop the policy because you can’t find a leader with the skills to sell it.

    The article is just an effort in rehabilitation for the inevitable moment in the future when he is ‘called upon’ to retake the leadership.

  24. frednk @ #1044 Saturday, October 5th, 2019 – 9:55 pm

    P1
    I don’t think I missed the point. I also didn’t miss ( the nicest way of putting this), the dishonesty.
    Putting in place policies does not result in instant change. It takes time to build new stuff.
    Labor has put in place plant closures that will result in major changes to WA energy mix.

    No, I don’t think you got the point. Or if you did, you are just dissembling. Possibly excepting NT (which the link doesn’t include), WA is the state with the least penetration of renewables, the highest dependence on fossil fuels, and a massive overcapacity in fossil-fueled generation capacity. I think you have more than enough coal-fired power stations to power the entire state alone, and something like twice that much gas generation capacity.

    If you think closing one small, old, decrepit and underutilized part of one coal-fired power station is a serious attempt to address this, or is being done to reduce your green house gas emissions, or is going to affect your power generation mix, then you might want to think again.

    It is no wonder that some WA posters here really hate the idea of shutting down coal mining, or imposing a carbon tax. WA would very likely be the state most affected.

  25. Scoop: Trump pins Ukraine call on Energy Secretary Rick Perry

    President Trump told House Republicans that he made his now infamous phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the urging of Energy Secretary Rick Perry — a call Trump claimed he didn’t even want to make.

    The only reason I made the call was because Rick asked me to

    Why it matters: The president’s remarks suggest he may be seeking to distance himself from responsibility or recast the pretext for the call

    https://www.axios.com/trump-blamed-rick-perry-call-ukraine-zelensky-8178447a-0374-4ac6-b321-a9454b0565d4.html

  26. Murphy wonders whether Republicans actually believe in the deep state conspiracy theories. I’d say yes, based on everything I’ve read and seen over the last few years. They have Trump Derangement Syndrome.

  27. Thans Mr. Rex – but wait – more

    Waiting at Melbourne’s Grand Hyatt hotel for the results on election night, Mr Shorten had prepared three speeches:

    “One where we won, one where we didn’t know and one where we lost,’’ he said.

    At 6.30pm exit polls showed Labor winning.

    “I thought well that’s getting pretty clear,’’ he said.

    “But by about 7.30pm all of a sudden the movement that we’d hoped for or had been promised wasn’t materialising.

    “I remember saying around 7.30pm: ‘Let’s get speech Number 3 out’.

    “I felt for my family who I had taken on the journey for the best part of six years and they’d invested a lot in giving sacrifice — from Chloe to the kids.

    “I felt for volunteers, for my staff, for my MP colleagues who had worked so hard.

    “There were millions of people who did vote for us — but not enough clearly.

    “It’s not just your own disappointment — it’s also other people’s disappointment.
    “Now sure some are happy and periodically I meet one of those on the street who don’t hold back in their opinion but a lot of people have come up to me and said that they were disappointed by the result.

  28. Scott Morrison is making it a matter for the Prime Minister of Australia! It is a politically partisan investigation by Barr and Trump and Scott Morrison is all in. THAT’S the problem!

  29. lizzie
    says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 8:06 am
    Reading William’s analysis
    As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas
    ___________________________________
    Surely the ‘inner urban effect’ is the rather insignificant response of pro-MT supporters across the nation recording their anger against the Liberals?

  30. “I see Littleproud has one of those windmill thingies in the background” yes a very broken one missing several vanes and free wheeling away. Figures….

  31. Scott Morrison proud to accept doing stuff for rural communities in drought. Except Moyne Shire isn’t in drought, or only a tiny part of it, as Mark Kenny points out.

  32. Didn’t Littleproud say his electorate has been in drought for 8 years? The coalition has been in govt for 6 of those 8 years, so yes I’d say their drought response is definitely slow!

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