Call of the board: South-East Queensland

How good was Queensland? The Poll Bludger reports – you decide.

The Poll Bludger’s popular Call of the Board series, in which results for each individual electorate at the May 18 federal election are being broken down region by region, underwent a bit of a hiatus over the past month or so after a laptop theft deprived me of my collection of geospatial files. However, it now returns in fine style by reviewing the business end of the state which, once again, proved to be the crucible of the entire election. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; and regional Victoria.

First up, the colour-coded maps below show the pattern of the two-party swing by allocating to each polling booth a geographic catchment area through a method that was described here (click for enlarged images). The first focuses on metropolitan Brisbane, while the second zooms out to further include the seats of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. As was the case in Sydney and Melbourne, these maps show a clear pattern in which Labor had its best results (in swing terms) in wealthy inner urban areas (for which I will henceforth use the shorthand of the “inner urban effect”, occasionally contrasted with an “outer urban effect” that went the other way). However, they are also bluer overall, reflecting Labor’s generally poor show across Queensland (albeit not as poor in the south-east as in central Queensland).

The seat-by-seat analysis is guided by comparison of the actual results with those estimated by two alternative metrics, which are laid out in the table below (using the two-party measure for Labor). The first of these, which I employ here for the first time, is a two-party estimate based on Senate rather than House of Representatives results. This is achieved using party vote totals for the Senate and allocating Greens, One Nation and “others” preferences using the flows recorded for the House. These results are of particular value in identifying the extent to which results reflected the popularity or otherwise of the sitting member.

The other metric consists of estimates derived from a linear regression model, in which relationships were measured between booths results and a range of demographic and geographic variables. This allows for observation of the extent to which results differed from what might have been expected of a given electorate based on its demography. Such a model was previously employed in the previous Call of the Board posts for Sydney and Melbourne. However, it may be less robust on this occasion as its estimates consistently landed on the high side for Labor. I have dealt with this by applying an across-the-board adjustment to bring the overall average in line with the actual results. Results for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats are not shown, owing to the difficulty involved in classifying them as metropolitan or regional (and I have found the model to be of limited value in regional electorates). The coefficients underlying the model can be viewed here.

And now to review each seat in turn:

Blair (Labor 1.2%; 6.9% swing to LNP): Shayne Neumann has held Blair since taking it from the Liberals in 2007, on the back of a favourable redistribution and Labor’s Kevin Rudd-inspired sweep across Queensland. His margins had hitherto been remarkably stable by Queensland standards, but this time he suffered a 9.8% drop in the primary vote (partly due to a more crowded field than last time), and his two-party margin compares with a previous low point of 4.2% in 2010. Nonetheless, the metrics suggest he did well to hang on: he outperformed the Senate measure, and the demographic measure was Labor’s weakest out of the six Queensland seats it actually won (largely a function of the electorate’s lack of ethnic diversity).

Bonner (LNP 7.4%; 4.0% swing to LNP): Bonner was a notionally Labor seat when it was created in 2004, and it says a lot about recent political history that they have only won it since at the high water mark of 2007. Ross Vasta has held it for the LNP for all but the one term from 2007 to 2010, and his new margin of 7.4% is easily the biggest he has yet enjoyed, the previous peak being 3.7% in 2013. Labor generally did better in swing terms around Mount Gravatt in the south-west of the electorate, for no reason immediately obvious reason.

Bowman (LNP 10.2%; 3.2% swing to LNP): Andrew Laming has held Bowman for the Liberals/LNP since it was reshaped with the creation of its northern neighbour Bonner in 2004, his closest scrape being a 64-vote winning margin with the Kevin Rudd aberration in 2007. This time he picked up a fairly typical swing of 3.2%, boosting his margin to 10.2%, a shade below his career best of 10.4% in 2013.

Brisbane (LNP 4.9%; 1.1% swing to Labor): Brisbane has been held for the Liberal National Party since a redistribution added the affluent Clayfield area in the electorate’s east in 2010, making it the only seat bearing the name of a state capital to be held by the Coalition since Adelaide went to Labor in 2004. The city end participated in the national trend to Labor in inner urban areas, but swings the other way around Clayfield and Alderley in the north-west reduced the swing to 1.1%. Trevor Evans, who has held the seat since 2016, outperformed both the Senate vote and the demographic model, his liberalism perhaps being a good fit for the electorate. Andrew Bartlett added 2.9% to the Greens primary vote in recording 22.4%, which would have been the party’s best ever result in a federal seat in Queensland had it not been surpassed in Griffith. This compared with Labor’s 24.5%, with Labor leading by 25.4% to 23.7% at the second last preference count.

Dickson (LNP 4.6%; 3.0% swing to LNP): The shared dream of Labor and GetUp! of unseating Peter Dutton hit the wall of two broader trends to the Coalition, in outer urban areas generally and Queensland specifically. However, as the map shows, there was a pronounced distinction between the affluent hills areas in the electorate’s south, which swung to Labor, and the working class suburbia of Kallangur, which went strongly the other way. Dutton’s result was well in line with the Senate vote, but actually slightly below par compared with the demographic model. It may be thought significant that One Nation struggled for air in competition with Dutton, scoring a modest 5.2%.

Fadden (LNP 14.2%; 2.9% swing to LNP): The three electorates of the Gold Coast all recorded below-average swings to the LNP, and were as always comfortably retained by the party in each case. Fadden accordingly remains secure for Stuart Robert, who had held it since 2007.

Fairfax (LNP 13.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): The northern Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax will forever wear the ignominy of having sent Clive Palmer to parliament in 2013, but Ted O’Brien recovered the seat for the Liberal National Party when Palmer bowed out of politics all-too-temporarily in 2016, and was uneventfully re-elected this time.

Fisher (LNP 12.7%; 3.6% swing to LNP): Second term LNP member Andrew Wallace did not enjoy a noticeable sophomore surge in his Sunshine Coast seat, picking up a slightly below par swing. All told though, this was an unexceptional result.

Forde (LNP 8.6%; 8.0% swing to LNP): This seat on Brisbane’s southern fringe maintained its recent habit of disappointing Labor, comfortably returning Bert van Manen, who gained it with the 2010 backlash after one term of Labor control. Reflecting the outer urban effect, van Manen gained the biggest swing to the LNP in south-east Queensland, and was able to achieve an improvement on the primary vote despite the entry of One Nation, who polled 11.8%. His 8.6% margin easily surpassed his previous career best of 4.4% in 2013, when his opponent was Peter Beattie.

Griffith (Labor 2.9%; 1.4% swing to Labor): It’s been touch and go for Labor’s Terri Butler since she succeeded Kevin Rudd at a by-election in 2014, but this time she was a beneficiary of the inner urban effect, which helped her eke out a 1.4% swing against the statewide trend. Of particular note was a surge in support for the Greens, who were up by 6.7% to 23.7%, their strongest result ever in a Queensland federal seat. Butler’s 31.0% primary vote was well below the LNP’s 41.0%, but Greens preferences were more than sufficient to make up the difference.

Lilley (Labor 0.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): One of the worst aspects of Labor’s thoroughly grim election night was newcomer Anika Wells’ struggle to retain Lilley upon the retirement of Wayne Swan, who himself experienced a career interruption in the seat when it was lost in the landslide of 1996. However, the metrics suggest the 5.0% swing was fuelled by the loss of Swan’s personal vote, showing barely any difference between the actual result and the Senate and demographic measures. The Labor primary vote plunged 8.1%, partly reflecting the entry of One Nation, who scored 5.3%.

Longman (LNP GAIN 3.3%; 4.1% swing to LNP): One of the two seats gained by the LNP from Labor in Queensland, together with the Townsville-based seat of Herbert (which will be covered in the next episode), Longman can be viewed two ways: in comparison with the 2016 election or the July 2018 by-election, which more than anything served as the catalyst for Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. On the former count, the 4.1% swing was broadly in line with the statewide trend, and comfortably sufficed to account for Susan Lamb’s 0.8% margin when she unseated Wyatt Roy in 2016. On the latter, the result amounted to a reversal of 7.7% in two-party terms, with victorious LNP candidate Terry Young doing 9.0% better on the primary vote than defeated by-election candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, recording 38.6%. One Nation scored 13.2%, which compared with 9.4% in 2016 and 15.9% at the by-election. Lamb actually outperformed the Senate and especially the demographic metric, suggesting a sophomore surge may have been buried within the broader outer urban effect. Despite the electorate’s demographic divide between working class Caboolture and retiree Bribie Island, the swing was consistent throughout the electorate.

McPherson (LNP 12.2%; 0.6% swing to LNP): As noted above in relation to Fadden, the results from the three Gold Coast seats did not provide good copy. McPherson produced a negligible swing in favour of LNP incumbent Karen Andrews, with both major parties slightly down on the primary vote, mostly due to the entry of One Nation with 5.9%.

Moncrieff (LNP 15.4%; 0.8% swing to LNP): The third of the Gold Coast seats was vacated with the retirement of Steve Ciobo, but the result was little different from neighbouring McPherson. On the right, a fall in the LNP primary vote roughly matched the 6.4% accounted for by the entry of One Nation; on the left, Animal Justice’s 3.9% roughly matched the drop in the Labor vote, while the Greens held steady. The collective stasis between left and right was reflected in the minor two-party swing.

Moreton (Labor 1.9%; 2.1% swing to LNP): This seat is something of an anomaly for Queensland in that it was held by the Liberals throughout the Howard years, but has since remained with Labor. This partly reflects a 1.3% shift in the redistribution before the 2007 election, at which it was gained for Labor by the current member, Graham Perrett. The swing on this occasion was slightly at the low end of the Queensland scale, thanks to the inner urban effect at the electorate’s northern end. Relatedly, it was a particularly good result for the Greens, whose primary vote improved from 12.7% to 16.8%.

Oxley (Labor 6.4%; 2.6% swing to LNP): Only Pauline Hanson’s historic win in 1996 has prevented this seat from sharing with Rankin the distinction of being the only Queensland seat to stay with Labor through recent history. Second term member Milton Dick was not seriously endangered on this occasion, his two-party margin being clipped only slightly amid modest shifts on the primary vote as compared with the 2016 result.

Petrie (LNP 8.4%; 6.8% swing to LNP): This seat maintained a bellwether record going back to 1987 by giving Labor one of its most dispiriting results of the election, which no doubt left LNP member Luke Howarth feeling vindicated in his agitation for a leadership change after the party’s poor by-election result in neighbouring Longman. Howarth strongly outperformed both the Senate and especially the demographic metrics, after also recording a favourable swing against the trend in 2016. He also managed a 3.4% improvement on the primary vote, despite facing new competition from One Nation, who polled 7.5% – exactly equal to the primary vote swing against Labor.

Rankin (Labor 6.4%; 4.9% swing to LNP): Rankin retained its status as Labor’s safest seat in Queensland, but only just: the margin was 6.44% at the second decimal place, compared with 6.39% in Oxley. Jim Chalmers copped a 7.9% hit on the primary vote in the face of new competition from One Nation (8.6%) and the United Australia Party (3.7%), while both the LNP and the Greens were up by a little under 3%. Nonetheless, Chalmers strongly outperformed both the Senate and demographic metrics. That the latter scarcely recognises Rankin as a Labor seat reflects the electorate’s large Chinese population, which at this election associated negatively with Labor support in metropolitan areas.

Ryan (LNP 6.0%; 3.0% swing to Labor): LNP newcomer Julian Simmonds was in no way threatened, but he suffered the biggest of the three swings against his party in Queensland, all of which were recorded in inner Brisbane. As well as the inner urban effect, this no doubt reflects ill-feeling arising from his preselection coup against Jane Prentice. It is tempting to imagine what might have happened if Prentice sought to press the issue by running as an independent.

ANNOUNCEMENT: If this painstakingly compiled post interested you enough that you have made it all the way through to the end, perhaps you might care to make a donation. These are gratefully received via the “become a supporter” button that appears just below, or the PressPatron button at the top of the page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,593 comments on “Call of the board: South-East Queensland”

Comments Page 22 of 32
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  2. I have a strange left-field theory that Extinction Rebellion may actually be good for Labor’s vote. With the sight of (so called) extremists disrupting traffic and demanding (so called) impossible changes, it may well be that Labor becomes seen in the electorate as a sensible choice to do something about climate change without going down the rabbit hole.

    I would also say that I think ER people are notably brave in putting themselves at odds with the law and most of the things they are demanding will have to come to pass, so I’m not really dissing them. it’a juat that I think the ELECTORAL effect may be a fair bit different from what some on this site are predicting.

  3. Dr Stuart Edser @StuartEdser
    ·
    10m
    Oh, so it’s all okay then. Good to know for the next election. All parties, you can write whatever shit you like and best of all, you can format it all in AEC colours. How good is democracy! #auspol

  5. Final thought for the evening. Perhaps it’s time for Australians to stop relying on American support and think for themselves.

  6. ajm @ #1052 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    I have a strange left-field theory that Extinction Rebellion may actually be good for Labor’s vote. With the sight of (so called) extremists disrupting traffic and demanding (so called) impossible changes, it may well be that Labor becomes seen in the electorate as a sensible choice to do something about climate change without going down the rabbit hole.

    I would also say that I think ER people are notably brave in putting themselves at odds with the law and most of the things they are demanding will have to come to pass, so I’m not really dissing them. it’a juat that I think the ELECTORAL effect may be a fair bit different from what some on this site are predicting.

    What would be even better for Labor’s vote is if people didn’t feel they had to resort to extremes to get some meaningful action. Because at the moment that’s clearly how many people feel 🙁

  8. Player One @ #1056 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    ajm @ #1052 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    I have a strange left-field theory that Extinction Rebellion may actually be good for Labor’s vote. With the sight of (so called) extremists disrupting traffic and demanding (so called) impossible changes, it may well be that Labor becomes seen in the electorate as a sensible choice to do something about climate change without going down the rabbit hole.

    I would also say that I think ER people are notably brave in putting themselves at odds with the law and most of the things they are demanding will have to come to pass, so I’m not really dissing them. it’a juat that I think the ELECTORAL effect may be a fair bit different from what some on this site are predicting.

    What would be even better for Labor’s vote is if people didn’t feel they had to resort to extremes to get some meaningful action. Because at the moment that’s clearly how many people feel 🙁

    In fact very few people ever think that way. The numbers involved in ER are tiny. People may well welcome what they see as a more “reasonable” choice if they believe something needs to be done but can’t see the coalition doing anything. You could look at it as ER shifting the Overton window a bit more back to the good guys.

  13. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 7:23 pm

    I can hardly wait for the Donald trump Library
    ______________
    Now that will be interesting.

  18. Watching the stilt wearing bees out for the extinction rebellion reminds me I have seen 1 bee so far this spring. No bees on the Jasmine that covers a whole wall here in Sydney, no bees (bar 1) on the the flowering plants at mums rural property in the lower Hunter.

    1 bee.

    And a plethora of flowing spring plants.

  20. Oh, and we used to arrive at the country house with the car plastered in bugs around this time of year, now almost none. Guess the bogans will like that, don’t have to clean the utes grille so much.

  24. mikehilliard

    We noticed the absence of insects on our holiday – we were able to sleep with the windows open. I think we had one moth.

    At home, however – in lush green north-east Victoria – the oak trees are abuzz with bees.

  25. And in late news, someone stole all the books Donald Trump had set aside for his Presidential Library, including the ones he hadn’t coloured in yet.

  26. bw

    But there a no bees, feral or otherwise?

    Also some years ago you wouldn’t turn an outside light on the verandah in the country because you’d be bombarded by bugs.

    Many many more less now. I’ve seen it.

  29. mh

    The Coalition Global Warming Drought is smashing biodiversity… insects along with it.

    There are serious concerns about the consequences of the massive decline in Bogong Moth numbers for the continued survival of the Mountain Pygmy Possum, for example.

  30. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 7:36 pm

    Bush got an undergrad degree at Yale and an MBA at Harvard.

    He must have read something somewhere along the line.

    ________________________
    He wore his learning lightly. 🙂

  31. a r @ #1077 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:45 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1072 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    The Republicans seem ready to move against Trump.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/mitt-romney-wont-primary-trump-but-trying-to-bring-him-down-impeachment-2020

    Does Romney count as multiple people now?

    I reckon he might be a rocket up the arse for Trump.

    Whether he’s a person or a people will depend on the reception of the message.

  32. Pissing down, cats and dogs, snails and frogs here in Pacific Palms.

    I feel sorry for those poor devils in Tenterfield and the rest of the Northern Tablelands. Why do they cop high winds and temperatures, destructive bushfires and ruination, simultaneously with our 18C and pelting rain, just a few hours south?

    Life’s bloody unfair.

  34. Confessions @ #1083 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1069 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    The Republicans seem ready to move against Trump.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/mitt-romney-wont-primary-trump-but-trying-to-bring-him-down-impeachment-2020

    I trust Rick Wilson who only yesterday said that is still a ways off if ever. And it will only happen if McConnell thinks his Senate majority is imperilled.

    There’s movement at the station……

  35. zoomster @ #1057 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:13 pm

    P1

    ‘Because at the moment that’s clearly how many people feel..’

    And your evidence for this is…??

    *sigh*

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/arrests-begin-as-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-protesters-block-cities/news-story/8c7a67a24bd9d816000294a4a5337ee6

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/extinction-rebellion-protests-continue-across-australia-and-other-countries-today/c2526be8-4a1b-412a-a782-e87cd12a26e3

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2019/oct/07/extinction-rebellion-protests-launch-around-the-world-video

  36. bw

    About 20 years ago stayed in this most sh*t pub in Tintaldra just over the NSW border along the Murray into Victoria. A warm night so left the window open and in the morning the room was crawling in bogong moths. I never thought they were that big!

  37. P1

    No, that’s not evidence which backs your claim.

    It’s evidence that people are acting, yes.

    They would probably be doing so even if Labor had a climate change policy which met with your approval – because they know that Labor can’t deliver squat for at least three years, and we don’t have the luxury of waiting around until then for action.

  39. ajm @ #1058 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:14 pm

    In fact very few people ever think that way. The numbers involved in ER are tiny.

    It actually doesn’t take many to make the point. Compare those numbers to … say … the number of members of your average political party.

    People may well welcome what they see as a more “reasonable” choice if they believe something needs to be done but can’t see the coalition doing anything. You could look at it as ER shifting the Overton window a bit more back to the good guys.

    The point is that ER is already having an influence, and they have barely even started. Even you have to acknowledge this. The real question is “Will it be enough to achieve anything?” Who knows? But I do know that if it is not enough in its current form, then it will be soon be replaced by something even more dramatic.

    Once you understand why people are becoming concerned, and what the stakes are, you can see there is no real likelihood of putting this particular genie back into the bottle.

  40. ‘Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 7:52 pm

    Pissing down, cats and dogs, snails and frogs here in Pacific Palms.

    I feel sorry for those poor devils in Tenterfield and the rest of the Northern Tablelands. Why do they cop high winds and temperatures, destructive bushfires and ruination, simultaneously with our 18C and pelting rain, just a few hours south?’

    The answer is a couple of climate system settings of which by far the most important is the Indian Ocean Dipole

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/positive-indian-ocean-dipole-bad-news-for-drought-crippled-areas/11120566

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02985-8

    Then there is the Great Dividing Range which lifts moist coastal air causing moisture to drop on your goodself instead of on places like Tenterfield on the other side of the Divide.

    Then there is the trend in temperature increases. Assuming long term rainfall stays the same (it is decreasing) temperature increases ensure that on average the fuel is drier on average and that ignition point is reached sooner and that fires are hotter on average.

    25 years ago the surveys showed that the group with the highest percentage of climate science denialists – older, ethic Australian, male, rule, less well-educated, farmers, lived in and around places like Tenterfield.

    I predicted then that the first Global Warming Refugees in Australia would be farmers not Pacific Islanders.

    And so it has come to pass.

  41. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 8:03 pm

    bw

    About 20 years ago stayed in this most sh*t pub in Tintaldra just over the NSW border along the Murray into Victoria. A warm night so left the window open and in the morning the room was crawling in bogong moths. I never thought they were that big!’

    They were important to regional Indigenous peoples. The Bogong Moths could be scraped off the surfaces of the rock by hand. They were so fat that they enabled large congregations of Indigenous People to gather for trade, ceremonies and, one assumes, the associated hanky panky.

  43. Mr Sheridan of ‘The Australian’ has finally twigged.
    Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria is a disaster.
    I used to have considerable respect for Mr Sheridan but his hagiography of May, Johnson and Trump has worn all that a tad thin.

  49. Up here in the Goldie hinterland, there’s been up to three choppers hovering for some two hours. It’s been a hot day (34), luckily no wind. I’m trying to work what I’ll save if the worse happens such is the tinderbox here in mid-Spring.

  50. Player One @ #1089 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    ajm @ #1058 Tuesday, October 8th, 2019 – 7:14 pm

    In fact very few people ever think that way. The numbers involved in ER are tiny.

    It actually doesn’t take many to make the point. Compare those numbers to … say … the number of members of your average political party.

    People may well welcome what they see as a more “reasonable” choice if they believe something needs to be done but can’t see the coalition doing anything. You could look at it as ER shifting the Overton window a bit more back to the good guys.

    The point is that ER is already having an influence, and they have barely even started. Even you have to acknowledge this. The real question is “Will it be enough to achieve anything?” Who knows? But I do know that if it is not enough in its current form, then it will be soon be replaced by something even more dramatic.

    Once you understand why people are becoming concerned, and what the stakes are, you can see there is no real likelihood of putting this particular genie back into the bottle.

    The effect they will have is dependent on there being a major political movement that can actually get something done waiting in he wings.

    This seems to me very like the street protests against the Bjelke-Petersen government in Queensland (which I participated in). It wasn’t ultimately the protesters who changed the laws to allow street protests, to root out the corruption in the state government etc. The public generally saw those protesters much as the ER protesters are seen today (and I admit we were a pretty ratbag lot). However, the shift in the Overton window allowed “mainstream” progressives to implement change.

    As an aside, anyone who things current Queensland protest laws are draconian hasn’t got a clue. How about the police having an absolute right (always exercised) to ban protests, carte blanche to lay into protesters with batons, Special Branch files on protesters, etc. That’s what it was like in the Bjelke-Petersen days. Despite the hype, the main role of the police in Queensland is now to facilitate protest while maintaining safety. The recent changes to the laws don’t really extend the police powers very much – they are more for the consumption of the public so the government is seen to be “doing something”. Annastacia is a very canny political operator and her job description at the moment is “get re-elected in 2010”. She may not succeed but she’s having a red hot go. As a Queenslander I think keeping the LNP out of power is of major political importance – a bit like making sure Trump doesn’t get back into the White House.

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