Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.
On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.
We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.
The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.
Also of note recently:
• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.
• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.
• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.
Good Morning
Good arguments Tristo.
Even in Australia things have become more polarised. For Labor just like the Greens when facing a hostile media your message has to be crystal clear.
That’s the whole Labor’s message has to be simple idea.
The problem with Adani is that it’s symbolic that Labor’s message is not crystal clear.
Another example of this is John Setka and striking students.
If. Setka was treated as an individual because Labor backed “militant” unionism then Setka and his private life would not be conflated with his public one.
Labor could have pushed back saying exactly that. Demanding freedom of unions to inspect workplaces for safety reasons. Citing the literally collapsing buildings.
A union able to access sites would have warned about sub standard building materials and the failure of certification before we got buildings collapsing.
The same is true about climate change and coal mines. Back the strong carbon price. Don’t have a Government loosening regulation for a coal mine.
Have no tax cuts just tax increases to attack inequity and you have some principled bottom lines.
It then becomes simple to argue your message. Making it crystal clear. You are for human rights. You are for the workers you are for increased equality
Yes that includes no bs review lines but a straight out increase in Income for Newstart recipients. In fact make even clearer. Argue all social security is too low as government revenue has fallen too far.
Then Labor can run with the slogan. Labor increasing your Pension.
So yes Tristo not only does it fire up the base. It gives Labor a crystal clear progressive alternative argument to run in an election campaign.
In fact that whole LNP Tax and Spend attack works for you and means you can do the above and credibly argue for a surplus even as you increase spending even on the Albanese area of infrastructure he has forced the LNP to take up.
Simon Katich @ #93 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:52 am
While not trying to dissuade you from using mixed metaphors, a lemon is a lemon. They’re all the same.
The CPG has misssed a trick…it’s clear that that the governnment has really delivered a surplus….of -$600M.
I loved Shane Wright’s line that Unemployed Australians are the most Aspirational Australians of all!
Simon Katich says:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 9:33 am
…”Bemused once called me a Liberal. And that was before I told him I am uncomfortable with immunisation injections”…
Bemused had an exceptional talent for picking apart the logical flaws in the arguments of any number of regular contributors to this site. It is the main reason he was not well liked.
Possibly, I am not the only person who regrets his abscence.
Now it can be “in deficit”, “in surplus” or now, “in balance”.
I doubt the rhetoric will survive a recession.
Just sayin’ I could pick Not Sure apart but Bushfire Bill will just pop up and say, there she goes again. 🙄
But but but…. thats my thing.
Not Sure @ #105 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:11 am
Doesn’t matter, WB thinks he’s not a fit person to be on the blog and that’s all that matters.
Greensborough Growler @ #106 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:13 am
No, a Recession will no longer be a Recession it will be reclassified as ‘Global Headwinds’ out of Australia’s control, and it’s already started.
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 10:08 am
Unless it’s a lime! 🙂
https://youtu.be/07Fp-omNXCw
I thought the refereeing was underdog friendly. I didnt notice them being too harsh on Pockock – although there was one penalty they got wrong.
I did notice two shoulder charges at the head of tackled opponents by the All Blacks. Do they practice this? It is seriously dangerous and I hope the refs keep cracking down on it as they were doing pre tournament.
Simon Katich @ #112 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:19 am
Crack down on the Kiwis. I tell you you’re dreaming!
GG
Labor should be asking about tax. From what I understand this is a high taxing government. Where has all the money gone?
At least if Labor has a tax citizens can see benefits in healthcare and the rest. Yes even a cash splash to keep us out of recession.
Labor needs to use the cash splash line for avoiding recession lots. The LNP have made it one about Labor, use it against them. Voters liked their new televisions
Not Sure @ #104 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:11 am
Bemused was across a lot of issues but sadly was the abusive type that William was talking about yesterday.
I enjoyed the political back and forth with him but not the abuse.
I did notice two shoulder charges at the head of tackled opponents by the All Blacks. Do they practice this? It is seriously dangerous and I hope the refs keep cracking down on it as they were doing pre tournament.
They just showed them on Offsiders plus the repeated targeting of Australia’s number 10 in the back play.
Please don’t talk about bemused. I think he still reads PB occasionally.
The send off of SBW in the Lions tour was brave. Yet it shouldnt have been brave – it was a no brainer. Same with wassisname in the Perth Bledisloe game. It is a blight on the game and should always get a red card. Every single time.
I bang on about it…. they need to adjust the substitution rule to reduce the number allowed. Forwards need to be fitter to last the game and thus smaller.
guytaur @ #100 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:07 am
Good post this.
The messaging and promotion of Labors manifesto was terrible and it wasn’t helped by policy demands from certain donors that were crazy.
Thanks, I will have to watch it. Is that awful Gerard on there still? And please tell me they no longer get Ange on for his backrub.
lizzie @ #117 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:24 am
And tries to sneak back in. Also, anyone who doesn’t mention bemused’s targeting of the women on this blog is being very selective in their appraisal of the man.
While the overall National vote might be of a minor party it might work for them if the boundaries were drawn up to favour them.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/21/politics/iowa-poll-2020-democrats/index.html
Forwards need to be fitter to last the game and thus smaller.
Did you see the size of the Fijian forwards!?! Obviously put there to slam Australia.
C@tmomma @ #121 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:27 am
That may be true. But, he’s not here to defend himself and he’s not really worth talking about.
Fair enough, GG.
Bugger! I thought I was clever getting on to Kayo for the rugby and avoiding that nasty Murdoch. But no. Apparently not so clever.
The poll marks Gabbard’s third qualifying poll for inclusion in October’s Democratic debates.
The Russians must have been busy. 😐
I have always maintained that once Trump, commonly known as Teflon Don, is actually held to account, Morrison, Boris Johnson etc will also have the spell being broken.
It is as simple as that.
C@tmomma @ #128 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:35 am
😆
Thanks William for the latest on the polling dynamics. Very interesting.
C@t
Yep indeed they have been busy!
Meanwhile what the f@@k is UK Labour doing. They need to get rid of Corbyn as leader, or they will be wiped out.
Victoria @ #132 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:40 am
If the Blairites keep undermining him yes they will be defeated.
How exactly are the morons in the bats or nats planning on breaking Western and South Australia into 6 provinces given the vast majority of the populations live in the capital cities?
Queensland would be only slightly better. I suspect someone has been studying the Republican electoral districts in the states.
This presumably would require a referendum.
Aqualung @ #135 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:43 am
By gerrymandering the crap out of it, probably.
What is all this about Corbyn? Didnt he just deliver a good speech on climate? Is it just the OTT whining of a recently departed aide?
Victoria
You are mad. Corbyn has played a blinder.
Johnson is between a rock and a hard place. Not Corbyn , not Labour.
Labour has flexibility and is working with others. Even Tories like May who want Brexit, but with a deal have been forced to join Labour in voting.
It’s not Corbyn with his back in a corner. It’s Johnson.
The only problem for Labour are the Lib Dems. However many Britons remember the Lib Dems backing the Tories and have noted who the Tories have joined.
lizzie says:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 10:24 am
…”Please don’t talk about bemused. I think he still reads PB occasionally”…
Is it a coincidence that one particular contributor was recently sent on a forced sabbatical and two days later a new person pops up, using as an avatar precisely the same 19th century oil on canvas depicting two fine chaps having a tipple?
Simon Katich @ #136 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:45 am
Corbyn was elected by the rank and file yet the Blairites are dtermined to tear him down and hand victory to Boris. Go figure !
Or is that not a badly kept, open secret?
Thanks WB for the summary of YouGov’s attempt to improve polling in Australia.
But how does online polling work? Is it by invitation? And how does any polling address the problem of self-selection? If we’re to believe the idea that a large group of “quiet Australians” only speaks up at an election, how can online polling offer any assurances that it is accurate? Is in fact polling more accurate in jurisdictions where voting is optional, that is where the self-selection is the same for polls and elections?
I had a discussion along these lines with Choice (the consumer group) a few years ago that ended with “I’ll pass your concerns on to our statistics guys” and I never heard back. I actually hope there is a solution but my cynical angel is dominant.
Not sure,
You’re new and relatively inexperienced. But, this is a Psephy Blog. Would you mind posting something in the general direction of that genre. You’re currently being a total bore.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-21/merkel-s-climate-deal-will-cost-billions-but-everyone-hates-it?srnd=premium-asia
The politics of climate change poses problems everywhere. In particular, measures to deal with climate change create opportunities for the Right while creating dissension among those that support action. This is a feature of Australian politics but it is certainly not confined to this country, as can be seen in Germany.
Late Riser @ #142 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:58 am
The Russians conduct it and publish the results.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn is playing a blinder is kidding themselves. After the silly tactic of attempting to get rid of Tom Watson, seriously f@@ked.
Dividing the senate into electorates does not require a referendum.
S.7 of the constitution:
The Senate shall be composed of senators for each State, directly chosen by the people of the State, voting, until the Parliament otherwise provides, as one electorate.
But until the Parliament of the Commonwealth otherwise provides, the Parliament of the State of Queensland, if that State be an Original State, may make laws dividing the State into divisions and determining the number of senators to be chosen for each division, and in the absence of such provision the State shall be one electorate.
It may be 120 years late but the federal parliament may now provide and in fact it is likely that the next Queensland LNP government could do it itself. I guess The question is if the first electoral law made this clause redundant
I don’t know why this proposal raises hostility here. In one stroke Hanson and the Greens are reduced to irrelevance and it is the only way that Labor will ever get within shouting distance of a Senate majority. On the other hand it could possibly result in a senate like the 1975 one
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #111 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 10:16 am
Is/were XTC the only band to have a hit song made up only of molly dookers?
Looking on the bright side. At least Prince Andrew continues to make the headlines due to him being a crook and a pervert.
Just watched offsiders C@t.
I saw the Hodge tackle real time and didnt think anything of it. It was a one on one, face to face tackle. Hodge got directly in front of the fijian, was stationary, the fijian was in full sprint, and a big bump by both on each other followed. Looked like a legitimate ball and all tackle attempt. Second view and there did appear to be a lack of arms in the tackle by Hodge which could see him in trouble if there is also contact to the head.
The tackle that I am talking about is where the player with the ball is already tackled and mostly stationary and on the way to the ground, the second tackler comes in at speed with the shoulder or hip at the head of the falling player. It is sickening.