Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.
On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.
We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.
The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.
Also of note recently:
• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.
• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.
• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.
frednk @ #48 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:39 am
Labor has placed itself in a very exposed position as a centrist party by being susceptible to critiques from all around. That’s a position of their own making.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/21/labour-plunges-into-brexit-chaos
Corbyn may as well campaign for the Lib-Dems or the Tories. He expects UK Labour to campaign against itself.
My assessment of the election is that Labor’s platform just wasn’t as radical, trans-formative and clear it could have been. If it had been Labor could have inspired hundreds of thousands of people to actively campaign and hustle for the party.
That would have countered the disinformation campaign waged primarily on social media, which the Coalition and Clive Palmer did. Because this “army” would have been talking to millions of voters, addressing the lies which were disseminated by this disinformation campaign.
Anthony Albanese understands the need for Labor activists to be out-here in the community and engaging with the public. However, the sort of agenda he is promoting just won’t inspire the number of people needed to order to achieve this. Indeed, if it is taken to the next election, I predict Labor will go even more backwards, along with losing some inner-city seats (including maybe Albanese’s) to the Greens
lizziesays:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:35 am
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
Thank you lizzie, it’s always good to start the day with a laugh. 🙂
Confessions @ #46 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:37 am
I think it was more a distrust in its leadership.
I believe voters preferred the devil they knew.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:40 am
lizzie @ #43 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:35 am
And that completes lizzie’s summation of you perfectly.
UI @ #52 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:45 am
The Guardian seems to me to hold a very pro-remain editorial position.
They seem not to be favourable to either a Boris type Brexit or a Corbyn style Brexit.
Well you would say that because it fits with your irrational hatred of Bill Shorten, even though we already know that leader ratings don’t mean much when it comes to voting intention.
Bushfire Bill @ #19 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 7:58 am
C’mon – be fair! He didn’t say Australian jobs.
Confessions @ #57 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 8:53 am
My critiques of Shorten have been measured and factual all along and were backed up by the election result.
@Confessions
Scott Morrison, unlike Peter Dutton was somewhat of a unknown in the electorate. Therefore; Morrison could convince a lot of people, that the image he presented himself was the true Scott Morrison. A lot of commentators underestimated Morrison’s skills as a marketer, political tactician, along with understanding the politically disengaged.
If it had not been for Morrison as Liberal leader, Labor would have won the may election in my opinion, either narrowly (if Bishop had been leader) or in a landslide (if Dutton had been leader).
That is why I am arguing for Labor to become more progressive in it’s platform, democratized the party, along with focusing on mass engagement of the general public . It is only way the party can counter any disinformation campaign waged by the government targeted the politically disengaged. Especially that the government now has nearly three years to develop and implement another disinformation campaign aimed towards the politically disengaged.
Re C@t @8:37.
“So why do ALL the Right Wing politicians do them [stunts] in election campaigns!?! Boris, ScoMao, Trump. You’d think it would be beneath their dignity but debase themselves in front of the voters they do. Why? Because it works.”
So do fear, lies and the dogwhistle. So it’s a dilemma.
I think that Labor needs to attack more. The lot in power are a bunch of lying, incompetent clowns. It can’t be too hard. Lying, apart from ethical considerations, is mostly out because Labor’s mates don’t control the big media outlets. As for the dogwhistle, call it out when it’s used.
And don’t say where the money’s coming from. Just say that Labor will end ‘waste and mismanagement’. Any specific measures will be attacked and misrepresented by the Government and its media allies. Just attend to the various rorts like franking credits once securely in office.
I wonder if Rex is Christian because he certainly believes there is such thing as “devil”.
Tristo:
I disagree. I reckon if Labor did not present such a large target it would’ve won the election.
How sickening was that Insiders intro on Morrison and Trump!
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:34 am
…”I’m sure I’m in Not Sure’s Green sights”…
And thank you for being the numbwit who proves the rule.
I am a twice lapsed member of the ALP and have voted for that party in all but two elections, state and Federal, since I have been legally permitted to do so.
@Confessions
I believe even if that had happened, the Coalition would have still won the election, by waging a disinformation campaign focusing on issues different to the ones which were featured in this election.
While Scott Morrison is terrible at actual governance, he is in my opinion a superb political tactician and strategist, probably the best since John Howard in that regard.
Not Sure @ #66 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:07 am
You can’t be critical of Labor on PB without being accused of being a Green. It seems to be the worst insult they can think of.
BK @ #65 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:06 am
Fran has barely been able to disguise her glee at how well things have gone for Morrison in America.
Lets just give the Nationals 50% of all seats in both houses of parliament. FFS. Democracy; Nationals style.
And while we are at it, lets just give the World Cup to the All Blacks now. Not only are they the better team, the refs will also make it so.
C@t
O, I dunno. Karvelas is just as enthusiastic.
Wouldn’t it be great for our ‘Space Race’ contribution if we had a world class Broadband Internet?
Morning all.
It seems we are knee deep in the world of politico-propaganda/advertising. NO depth, no actual policy, just superficialities and ‘shiny objects’.
Morrison has adopted Trump’s totems: marketing via baseball cap/talking peripheral minutiae and allowing the incompetent/struggling business to run the show while making loud noises to the media to distract everyone from their incompetence.
Doesn’t augur well for the next generation.
lizzie @ #71 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:22 am
Lol. Thank goodness for Shane Wright and Mark Kenny as the voices of sanity. Good point by Shane Wright that Morrison isn’t being feted by China. 🙂
Trump appears to be moving the goalposts…..
Doesn’t augur well for the next generation.
I have an abiding faith that there are some brilliant communicators among the Zoomer Generation, such as we have seen recently at the Climate Strike rallies, who will effectively counter the forces of evil.
Confessions @ #75 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:26 am
He shouldn’t be allowed to get away with it. The Democrats need to move quickly.
If there’s a positive to take out of the Washington visit it’s the messaging given to Trump that we’re not inclined to escalate our involvement in middle east military conflict.
C@tmomma @ #75 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:27 am
It gives great hope. It also helps that the younger generation aren’t as exposed to the Murdoch types as much as our generation has been.
Bemused once called me a Liberal. And that was before I told him I am uncomfortable with immunisation injections.
At the next round of climate rallies, the AEC should staff stalls at each one to encourage every single 16 and 17yo at the rally to get onto the electoral roll.
Voting in the next election is the one concrete action young people can take towards getting change.
UI says:
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 8:45 am
…”Corbyn may as well campaign for the Lib-Dems or the Tories. He expects UK Labour to campaign against itself”…
It would have been more effective if you had changed your nom de guerre to “Libling” .
Angus Taylor comes over as a con man.
Adani was significant in QLD based on the substantial swing there. The convoy didn’t help.
Ugh!
Davidwh:
Yes, Bob Brown’s Adani convoy was a gift to the LNP.
Confessions @ #86 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:43 am
The Queensland CFMMEU much more so.
Confessions @ #86 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:43 am
Shouldn’t the kangaroo be inserted up the eagle’s clacker?
C@t:
To me it looks like the kangaroo is in the clutches of the eagle. Appropriate either way.
Is the bald eagle swooping down to rip the terrified kangaroo apart with its fearsome talons, or is the roo sexually molesting the bird?
I bet that logo was designed by some intern working in the PM’s Office on job experience.
It is a LNP MP job application prerequisite. I mean, how else do you sell a clunker to the electorate?
What astounds me is how many times can the electorate buy a lemon before they go, hang on a minute…. and change brands?
BK @ #84 Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 9:41 am
One of what I have dubbed the Handsome Conservatives. They are pleasing to the eye, eg Alan Tudge, Angus Taylor, John Anderson back in the day and can beguile the listener as they push out their flim flam.
You mean Scott Morrison?
Fran Kelly moves on from discussions too quickly.
Insiders were in a near punch-up over whether the Budget is in surplus or deficit.
Karvelas took the government’s talking point line that $600,000,000 is a “rounding error” and that the Budget is “balanced”.
Shane Wright points that that this new term adds a 3rd state to the status of the Budget. Now it can be “in deficit”, “in surplus” or now, “in balance”.
I got the feeling he was pretty disappointed in how easy it had been for the government to get its talking points and inventive double speak adopted by a compliant CPG. Amazing co-incidence, wasn’t it? They suddenly all found exactly the same phrase to describe the state of the Budget.
Wright pointed out that $600,000,000 is a LOT of money, and that the Budget is actually still in deficit.
Which is, of course, the REAL truth… as opposed to Talking Point Truth.
I am now a fan of Shane Wright. He often goes against the accepted orthodoxy.
Jane Norman has laid out the basis for all her questions for the next few months.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-22/labor-strategising-on-how-to-rebuild-fortunes/11530354?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_content=&utm_campaign=%5bnews_sfmc_newsmail_am_df_!n1%5d%3a8935&user_id=b2eaea0f0f9f37c61d32a430ed6dcaf79538de689fb2c67f5d593a90d91727f7&WT.tsrc=email&WT.mc_id=Email%7c%5bnews_sfmc_newsmail_am_df_!n1%5d%7c8935ABCNewsmail_topstories_articlelink
David Pocock is the adult in the room. Cheika is a whiner who will whine and whine
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/7news.com.au/sport/rugby-union/pocock-dodges-claim-of-ref-scrutiny-c-465818.amp