So much trouble in the world

Upheaval in conservative politics in New South Wales over abortion law; a pickle for Labor in Tasmania over a vacancy in state parliament; and suggestions of a looming state by-election in Victoria.

In New South Wales:

A row over a bill to decriminalise abortion is prompting murmurings about Gladys Berejiklian’s leadership just five months after she led the Coalition to an impressive election victory, with tremors that are being felt federally. The bill was introduced by independent MP Alex Greenwich, but its sponsors included the Berejiklian government’s Health Minister, Brad Hazzard. It was headed last week for passage through both houses of parliament, before Berejiklian bowed to conservative outrage by pushing back the final vote in the upper house by nearly a month. Claiming credit for this concession is Barnaby Joyce, whose high-profile interventions have angered his state Nationals colleagues, most of whom support the bill (prompting Mark Latham, who now holds a crucial upper house vote as a member of One Nation, to tar the party with the cultural Marxist brush). Following suggestions the party room had discussed expelling him from the party, Joyce said he would go of his own accord if four of them publicly called for him to do so. It doesn’t appear that is going to happen, but if it did, the government would be reduced from 77 seats in the House of Representatives out of 151, costing it its absolute majority on the floor.

In Tasmania:

Labor MP Scott Bacon’s decision to end his state parliamentary career, citing family reasons, represents an unwelcome turn of events for an already understaffed state opposition, owing to the manner in which parliamentary vacancies are filled under Hare-Clark. This will involve a “recount” (as officially known, though “countback” is the generally preferred term for such procedures) of the votes that got Bacon elected to his seat in Denison (which is now called Clark), either as first or subsequent preferences. The procedure is open to any unsuccessful candidates from the previous election who care to nominate, among whom is Madeleine Ogilvie, a former incumbent who was defeated in 2018 – possibly because progressive sentiment had been alienated by her social conservatism.

The problem for Labor is that Ogilvie has since parted company with the party, to the extent of running as an independent for an upper house seat in May. If she wins the recount, and no reconciliation with the party is forthcoming, there will be nothing to stop her sitting as an independent, reducing Labor from ten seats to nine in a chamber of 25. As explained by Kevin Bonham, we can see from the 2018 results that this will produce a “first preference” count in which 33.1% of the vote goes to Madeleine Ogilvie and 28.4% to Tim Cox, a former ABC Radio presenter who ran unsuccessfully, and has confirmed he will nominate for the recount. More than half the remainder went to candidates who are not in contention because they’re already in parliament, so it will assuredly be one or the other.

In Victoria:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports the Liberals have been conducting internal polling for former party leader Matthew Guy’s seat of Bulleen, prompting speculation he will shortly quit parliament. The Liberals retained the seat with a 5.8% margin even amid the debacle of last November’s election, and the polling is “believed to show the Liberal brand holding up”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,112 comments on “So much trouble in the world”

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  1. I’m on the side of the abalone fishers.
    Around 50 years ago I had a minor automotive disaster involving a wheel falling off my (student) vehicle on the highway not far out of Mallacoota. I had no idea about what to do.
    A passing abalone fisher stopped. He had the equipment and the nous to get the car off the ground, get the spare on, and to send me on my way.
    Signed
    Eternally Grateful to the Abalone Fishers of Mallacoota.

  2. Greensborough Growler @ #1933 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:00 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1889 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1927 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:54 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1885 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:53 pm

    Bucephalus @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    C@tmomma,

    No, Folau’s statement is completely in accord with modern Christianity.

    That doesn’t make what he wants to do allowable. He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. He doesn’t get a leave pass from being considered an annoying presence with no concept of personal space in the workplace, just because he is religious.

    You first!

    What a facile thing to say.

    Doubt it!

    I rest my case.

  3. adrian @ #1913 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:12 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1947 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:10 pm

    adrian @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    RW framing on ABC News. ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged his critics’, should read ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged anyone with an IQ over 60’ 🙂

    So, your a happy chappy then?

    Hook, line and sinker. Oh the irony, it burns.

    You’re the one with IQ below 60.

  4. Firefox

    You can do self-delusional cherrypicking all you like.

    You should treasure 2010. It was your national year of glory. You have not been flatlining since or you have been going backwards.

    How is Tasmania going, for example?

    21% in 2010.
    10% now.

    Down by more than half in Tasmania. You have not been exulting about that.

    How are you travelling in Australia’s two most populous states? Victoria: flatlining. New South Wales: going backwards and now well below 10%.

  5. “He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. ”

    He is getting done for putting something on Facebook. No one has to follow him and read it.

  6. Diogenes @ #1959 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:18 pm

    “He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. ”

    He is getting done for putting something on Facebook. No one has to follow him and read it.

    This is about him wanting to be allowed to come back to ‘work’ at Rugby Australia because he wants to spread the word of God. 🙄

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #1957 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:14 pm

    adrian @ #1913 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:12 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1947 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:10 pm

    adrian @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    RW framing on ABC News. ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged his critics’, should read ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged anyone with an IQ over 60’ 🙂

    So, your a happy chappy then?

    Hook, line and sinker. Oh the irony, it burns.

    You’re the one with IQ below 60.

    Got it right this time old fella.
    Yes, the doctors say I do alright for someone with an IQ of 46.
    My careers advisor advised me to become a mortgage broker or catholic priest, but I said, hey I have standards, even with a low IQ.

  8. Hugh Grant not happy with Boris:

    Actor Hugh Grant has launched an extraordinary profane broadside at British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for suspending Parliament for over a month just before the United Kingdom’s Brexit deadline.

    “You will not f–k with my children’s future,” the furious father of five told his 349,000 followers in a now-viral tweet.

    “You will not destroy the freedoms my grandfather fought two world wars to defend.”

    Grant signed off with, “F–k off you over-promoted rubber bath toy.

    “Britain is revolted by you and you [sic] little gang of masturbatory prefects.”

    😆

  9. C@tmomma @ #1963 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:22 pm

    Hugh Grant not happy with Boris:

    Actor Hugh Grant has launched an extraordinary profane broadside at British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for suspending Parliament for over a month just before the United Kingdom’s Brexit deadline.

    “You will not f–k with my children’s future,” the furious father of five told his 349,000 followers in a now-viral tweet.

    “You will not destroy the freedoms my grandfather fought two world wars to defend.”

    Grant signed off with, “F–k off you over-promoted rubber bath toy.

    “Britain is revolted by you and you [sic] little gang of masturbatory prefects.”

    😆

    So it was the real Hugh Grant. Good on him!

  10. Goodness me. Some West Papuan Freedom fFghters just had a stoush with some Kopassus types with the former armed with bows and arrows (as per strict Greens military protocols and approved military equipment) and the Kopassus types armed with M1s.

    Any Greens will tell you that the West Papuan Freedom Fighters scored a massive military victory and that merdeka is just around the corner.

  11. adrian @ #1962 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    Bucephalus @ #1948 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    adrian says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 7:08 pm

    Just call them deplorable as well- worked well last time.

    Greensborough Growler @ #1957 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:14 pm

    adrian @ #1913 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:12 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1947 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:10 pm

    adrian @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    RW framing on ABC News. ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged his critics’, should read ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged anyone with an IQ over 60’ 🙂

    So, your a happy chappy then?

    Hook, line and sinker. Oh the irony, it burns.

    You’re the one with IQ below 60.

    Got it right this time old fella.
    Yes, the doctors say I do alright for someone with an IQ of 46.
    My careers advisor advised me to become a mortgage broker or catholic priest, but I said, hey I have standards, even with a low IQ.

    You cannot imagine how underwhelmed I am by that riposte.

    Fun fact for someone with an IQ more than 46.. Did you know their are 23 more letters after ABC?

  12. 🙂
    Adam Liaw
    @adamliaw

    How do people who get absolutely furious at gender-neutral bathrooms go to the toilet in their own homes?

  13. “You can do self-delusional cherrypicking all you like.”

    Boerwar,

    This coming from the guy who just cherry-picked a number out of 1984. Good one mate.

    The Greens have more representatives now than we have ever had. There is well over 100 elected Greens representatives in Australia, all the way from the Federal Parliament to local councils.

    You just keep plucking out arguments and then whenever I squash one of them you just move right along to your next bit of nonsense.

    You pluck out 2010 in Tassie, which was a mistake as it highlights the truly epic swing that Tas Labor suffered against it in that year of -12.39%! Now that is some kind of swing! No wonder the Greens vote spiked there that year and came down afterwards. But of course you wouldn’t tell that whole story, would you.

  14. ‘A new study, due to be published in the journal Organizational Dynamics, has found that, following the #MeToo movement, men are significantly more reluctant to interact with their female colleagues. A few highlights from the research include:

    • 27% of men avoid one-on-one meetings with female co-workers. Yep, that’s right, almost a third of men are terrified to be alone in a room with a woman.

    • 21% of men said they would be reluctant to hire women for a job that would require close interaction (such as business travel).’

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/aug/29/men-women-workplace-study-harassment-harvard-metoo
    Advertisement

    • 19% of men would be reluctant to hire an attractive woman.

  15. Firefox

    In general, at state and federal levels the Greens vote has either flatlined or declined since 2010.

    If you listen to the Greens such as yourself, the reverse is true.

  16. “Firefox

    In general, at state and federal levels the Greens vote has either flatlined or declined since 2010.

    If you listen to the Greens such as yourself, the reverse is true.”

    ***

    Actually, the Greens vote in both the House and the Senate has increased at every election vs the previous one, with the only exceptions being 1996 and 2013. I note that 1996 and 2013 were both very bad years for Labor too.

    Anyway, we are just going in circles again. For both our sake’s, and William’s sanity lol, I think I’ll leave this here and go and watch Hans Zimmer – Live In Prague in 2016. Yes, I need some musical therapy after banging my head against this brick wall haha.

    Perhaps you do too. 🙂

    Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXARzUadLCM

  17. @Rex: Declining to speak where there is an ongoing judicial process is standard, as you should know. And it’s standard for a very good reason.

  18. Rex Douglas @ #1975 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1946 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    Confessions @ #1934 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    C@t:

    How did your branch meeting go last night? Fireworks?

    Nah. We were cautioned to keep things unsaid until after the ICAC investigation has concluded. Probably correctly so.

    So you wimped it …?

    What Matt said. Actually, I showed considered judgement and respected wise advice. Something you could learn to do.

  19. C@tmomma @ #1983 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 8:04 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1975 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1946 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    Confessions @ #1934 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    C@t:

    How did your branch meeting go last night? Fireworks?

    Nah. We were cautioned to keep things unsaid until after the ICAC investigation has concluded. Probably correctly so.

    So you wimped it …?

    What Matt said. Actually, I showed considered judgement and respected wise advice. Something you could learn to do.

    You did pump up your own tyres here on PB.

    I can understand why some think you were all air .

  20. Re Hell, fundamentalists don’t agree on whether or not it exists. Seventh Day Adventists and Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that when the unsaved die, they die. Others believe sinners are tossed into a lake of fire after judgement to be incinerated, not eternally tormented. Many Catholics and other mainstream Christians don’t believe in Hell, or believe it is empty.

  21. C@tmomma @ #1980 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 8:04 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1975 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1946 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    Confessions @ #1934 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    C@t:

    How did your branch meeting go last night? Fireworks?

    Nah. We were cautioned to keep things unsaid until after the ICAC investigation has concluded. Probably correctly so.

    So you wimped it …?

    What Matt said. Actually, I showed considered judgement and respected wise advice. Something you could learn to do.

    Take my advice and shake the joint up. You never know, others might support your lead…

  22. I think history will show that it was informed commentators on Pollbludger that called the winding up of the ALP first. Recent events show it’s time for a progressive reformation which will begin with the dissolution of the ALP.

    Si Si Puede!

  23. Lars Von Trier @ #1988 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    I think history will show that it was informed commentators on Pollbludger that called the winding up of the ALP first. Recent events show it’s time for a progressive reformation which will begin with the dissolution of the ALP.

    Si Si Puede!

    ESY,

    Dickheads like you will always be dickheads.

  24. “I think history will show that it was informed commentators on Pollbludger that called the winding up of the ALP first. Recent events show it’s time for a progressive reformation which will begin with the dissolution of the ALP.”

    As you may recall 10 NSW “Liberals” and Nationals were forced to resign in 2016 because of illegal donations, laundered through dodgy front organisations like the “Free Enterprise Foundation”. Then there’s the whole five by eight / Sydney Water scandal.

    These days it probably all happens through transfers between secret accounts in tax havens.

  25. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 8:16 pm
    ______________________

    Steve, do you not understand? Save your ALP membership money, its over! Maybe donate it to a charity if you have surplus funds.

  26. “Time to throw the moneychangers out of the temple.”

    damn fine sentiment. Morriscum and his economically illiterate mob of nasty greedy bastards need to go.

  27. Yes imacca – throw out the moneychangers in the 2party duopoly of LibLab and let’s move forward with a genuine progressive alternative.

    So glad you finally understand and pushed through your false consciousness.

  28. You’d have to say that Canada was more fortunate in its history of party formation.

    Unlike Australia which split Labor/Liberals&Conservatives

    Canada Split Liberal/Conservatives and the union movement never formed a successful party.

    It has led to the dominance of the Centre-Left Liberal party and it’s the reason Canadians can freely smoke weed today.

  29. “Save your ALP membership money, its over! Maybe donate it to a charity if you have surplus funds.”

    LvT…i genuinely pity the frightened and insecure RWNJ’s like yourself who fall back on the most pathetic aspects of the playbook like that. This recurring thing across the RW of the spectrum of calling for anyone with a different opinion or belief to “just give up now” ?? Appealing to people to just quit any debate so you can feel safe and right and not be challenged? You deserve no respect or sympathy for showing yourself up as such a pathetic twat….only pity.

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