So much trouble in the world

Upheaval in conservative politics in New South Wales over abortion law; a pickle for Labor in Tasmania over a vacancy in state parliament; and suggestions of a looming state by-election in Victoria.

In New South Wales:

A row over a bill to decriminalise abortion is prompting murmurings about Gladys Berejiklian’s leadership just five months after she led the Coalition to an impressive election victory, with tremors that are being felt federally. The bill was introduced by independent MP Alex Greenwich, but its sponsors included the Berejiklian government’s Health Minister, Brad Hazzard. It was headed last week for passage through both houses of parliament, before Berejiklian bowed to conservative outrage by pushing back the final vote in the upper house by nearly a month. Claiming credit for this concession is Barnaby Joyce, whose high-profile interventions have angered his state Nationals colleagues, most of whom support the bill (prompting Mark Latham, who now holds a crucial upper house vote as a member of One Nation, to tar the party with the cultural Marxist brush). Following suggestions the party room had discussed expelling him from the party, Joyce said he would go of his own accord if four of them publicly called for him to do so. It doesn’t appear that is going to happen, but if it did, the government would be reduced from 77 seats in the House of Representatives out of 151, costing it its absolute majority on the floor.

In Tasmania:

Labor MP Scott Bacon’s decision to end his state parliamentary career, citing family reasons, represents an unwelcome turn of events for an already understaffed state opposition, owing to the manner in which parliamentary vacancies are filled under Hare-Clark. This will involve a “recount” (as officially known, though “countback” is the generally preferred term for such procedures) of the votes that got Bacon elected to his seat in Denison (which is now called Clark), either as first or subsequent preferences. The procedure is open to any unsuccessful candidates from the previous election who care to nominate, among whom is Madeleine Ogilvie, a former incumbent who was defeated in 2018 – possibly because progressive sentiment had been alienated by her social conservatism.

The problem for Labor is that Ogilvie has since parted company with the party, to the extent of running as an independent for an upper house seat in May. If she wins the recount, and no reconciliation with the party is forthcoming, there will be nothing to stop her sitting as an independent, reducing Labor from ten seats to nine in a chamber of 25. As explained by Kevin Bonham, we can see from the 2018 results that this will produce a “first preference” count in which 33.1% of the vote goes to Madeleine Ogilvie and 28.4% to Tim Cox, a former ABC Radio presenter who ran unsuccessfully, and has confirmed he will nominate for the recount. More than half the remainder went to candidates who are not in contention because they’re already in parliament, so it will assuredly be one or the other.

In Victoria:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports the Liberals have been conducting internal polling for former party leader Matthew Guy’s seat of Bulleen, prompting speculation he will shortly quit parliament. The Liberals retained the seat with a 5.8% margin even amid the debacle of last November’s election, and the polling is “believed to show the Liberal brand holding up”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,112 comments on “So much trouble in the world”

Comments Page 39 of 43
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  1. GG

    The Greens remind me of the rabbit.

    A bear and a rabbit are having a shit in the woods.
    The bear says to the rabbit, ‘Does shit stick to your fur?’
    ‘No,’ says the rabbit, ‘Why do you ask?’
    So the bear picks up the rabbit and wipes his arse.

  2. I can’t see why people complain about the struggles of private schools?

    ‘By Megan Gorrey
    August 29, 2019 — 6.09pm

    A $29 million library resembling a Scottish castle will loom over the grounds of a Sydney private school despite residents’ fears the building will worsen traffic and impinge on their harbour views.

    An independent panel has this week approved The Scots College’s plans to transform the Bellevue Hill school’s “flat-roofed, neo-Brutalist, monolithic and solid mass” of a library into a structure with a rooftop terrace overlooking Sydney Harbour, a turret, bay windows and external cladding in the “Scottish Baronial architectural style”.

  3. @sprocket: Clearly, the Scots College is struggling for funding and needs an urgent top-up of public money – about $58m should cover it. The poor dears!

  4. C@tmomma @ #1895 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:16 pm

    citizen @ #1864 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 5:22 pm

    “Israel Folau says he has a ‘mission to spread the word of God’ as he tries to get his job back”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/israel-folau-addresses-rugby-australia-in-bold-job-plea/11461504

    Just like these folks?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4YrCFz0Kfc

    Israel Folau has a few kangaroos loose in the top paddock. 😐

    Folau has a mission. He has the money, profile and dedication to pursue it. You can mock as much as you like, but he seems to have the ability to promote his cause inspite of your running commentary.

  5. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 6:19 pm

    C@tmomma,

    No, Folau’s statement is completely in accord with modern Christianity.’

    BS. It is nowhere near ‘completely in accord’.

    Folau’s beliefs are at the psychotic fringe of modern mainstream Christianity.

  6. The UK Parliament has had its’ sitting days reduced by 4 days.

    This is apparently the act of a Dictatorship and the end of democracy.

    Get a grip.

  7. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 6:25 pm

    The UK Parliament has had its’ sitting days reduced by 4 days.

    This is apparently the act of a Dictatorship and the end of democracy.

    Get a grip.’

    Haha. Sheridan’s line – pure right wing crap. If it does not matter a skerrick, why divide the nation? The answer is that he is trying to avoid being held accountable to representative democracy in the single most important decision that Britain will make this century.

  8. Boerwar,

    I am referring to the Statement of claim that specifically refers to the duty of a Christian to proselytise.

    Do you argue that that is a fringe Christian belief?

  9. Mr Sheridan is demonstrating his hucksterism on Drum, IMO.
    For example he forgot to mention that the UK is on the precipice of recession.

  10. “You may not be aware that the Greens political representation in the ACT is the lowest it has been for many elections. It is down to one person. I have previously noted that the Greens operate the occasional BOP. This is a fringe political activity with fringe practical outcomes.”

    ***

    Actually, at the last ACT election in 2016, the ACT Greens GAINED an extra member. They have two; Shane Rattenbury and Caroline Le Couteur. Stop spreading blatant lies.

    ***

    “The Brisbane Greens Party achieved votes of up to 10% around 1984. In 2019 the Greens Party achieved a vote of around 10%. I am not asking you to be disheartened about this. What I am asking is for you to reflect about the larger consequences of Greens Party failure, past, present and future.”

    ***

    Boerwar, let me introduce you to my friend Michael!

    Michael is from Queensland.

    Michael is from Brisbane.

    Michael is the Member for Maiwar.

    Michael won his seat with a vote of 27.8%.

    Michael Berkman is a Greens MP in Brisbane in 2019.

    You are still stuck in 1984.

  11. Boerwar,

    If you followed the thread I was responding directly to c@tmomma who had posted:

    “Israel Folau says he has a ‘mission to spread the word of God’ as he tries to get his job back”

    Have a Bex and a cup of tea.

  12. Firefox

    Bearing in mind that the ACT is a totally weird non representative sample of Australian politics:

    The ACT Greens vote has gone from 15.6% to 10.7% to 10.3% in the last three ACT elections.
    The ACT Senate vote has gone 19%, 16% to 17% in the last three Federal elections.
    The ACT Reps vote has gone 19%, 13%, 15%, 16% over the last four Federal elections.

    Over to you.

  13. Buce Phallus, I recall you scoffed at my suggestion a while back that Johnson would prorogue Parliament, and run the Brexit clock down. Which has come to pass.

    So scoff at this suggestion.

    By hook or by crook, there will be another referendum and the Remainers will romp in. In addition, the Tories will be banished to the Opposition benches for a generation as penance for inflicting this clusterfuck on the British nation.

  14. Dear Labor party and ACTU.

    There is one true god. She is union.

    Commandment 1: You have the right to strike.

    From twitter thread

  15. Bu
    No worries. You were wrong but you are claiming that the old right wing ‘context’ excuse. I suggest you amp that to the old right wing ‘I was only joking’.
    Folau’s ‘church’ appears to have about fifty followers and to have some fringe destructive beliefs.

  16. ‘Save your arse’ Dastyari advises Murnain

    Dastyari told ICAC investigators last week he advised Murnain to “cover your arse” and make sure she told everything to the party’s lawyer, Ian Robertson.

    The inquiry has been shown excerpts of Dastyari’s compulsory testimony to Counsel Assisting Scott Robertson on August 22 (before the public inquiry kicked off this week).

    Murnain’s lawyer directs Dastyari to a section of the August 22 transcript where he discusses his response to Murnain’s concerns regarding the donations and disclosures.

    Robertson: As best you can now recall, do you recall what advice or suggestions you gave Ms Murnain regarding those concerns?

    Dastyari: Look, my advice to her would have been, cover your arse, like protect your arse and make sure you tell Ian Robertson and make sure you get the lawyers in and don’t worry about the expense of the party of getting really good lawyers.’

  17. Sprocket- I don’t recall scoffing at a suggestion of prorogation. Can you provide evidence?
    I’m pretty sure I’ve thought it was an option for Boris since he became PM.

  18. Bucephalus @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    C@tmomma,

    No, Folau’s statement is completely in accord with modern Christianity.

    That doesn’t make what he wants to do allowable. He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. He doesn’t get a leave pass from being considered an annoying presence with no concept of personal space in the workplace, just because he is religious.

  19. Assuming that to form government parties will have to do well in Queensland and WA, here are the Greens votes for WA:

    Legislative Assembly: 2008 = 12%, 2013 = 8% 2017 = 9%.
    Legislative Council: 2008 = 11 %, 2013 = 8%, 2017 = 9%.

    Sure there is the usual scattering of senators, MPs and the like. Arguably, after three decades these are symbols of a failure to form government, not a sign of success.

  20. C@tmomma @ #1885 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:53 pm

    Bucephalus @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    C@tmomma,

    No, Folau’s statement is completely in accord with modern Christianity.

    That doesn’t make what he wants to do allowable. He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. He doesn’t get a leave pass from being considered an annoying presence with no concept of personal space in the workplace, just because he is religious.

    You first!

  21. Larkin at his most his derisible:

    Morning, noon & and; bloody night,

    Seven sodding days a week,

    I slave at filthy “work”, that might

    Be done by any book-drunk freak;

    This goes on till I kick the bucket:

    FUCK IT FUCK IT FUCK IT FUCK.’

    Poetry on PB.

  22. Greensborough Growler @ #1927 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:54 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1885 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:53 pm

    Bucephalus @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    C@tmomma,

    No, Folau’s statement is completely in accord with modern Christianity.

    That doesn’t make what he wants to do allowable. He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. He doesn’t get a leave pass from being considered an annoying presence with no concept of personal space in the workplace, just because he is religious.

    You first!

    What a facile thing to say.

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    Twitter and Instagram isn’t the Rugby Australia place of work (although one does wonder after the last test).

  24. Bu
    Which would be why the Coalition just spent a shit load of taxpayer’s money harrassing a worker out of the APS for publishing anonymous views detrimental to the political interests of the Coalition.

  25. C@tmomma @ #1889 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1927 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:54 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1885 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:53 pm

    Bucephalus @ #1902 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 6:19 pm

    C@tmomma,

    No, Folau’s statement is completely in accord with modern Christianity.

    That doesn’t make what he wants to do allowable. He should keep his religious observance private and out of people’s faces who don’t want to be proselytised to at their place of work, Rugby Australia. He doesn’t get a leave pass from being considered an annoying presence with no concept of personal space in the workplace, just because he is religious.

    You first!

    What a facile thing to say.

    Doubt it!

  26. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    Not only did the Greens give WA the useless Margetts in Senate & Legislative Council but also the worst AFL Umpire by the same name.

  27. 2 court cases against the Andrews victorian state government

    1. Victorian ministers named in $93m lawsuit over Werribee ‘super city’

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-ministers-named-in-93m-lawsuit-over-werribee-super-city-20190829-p52m2a.html

    2. Abalone deals baloney to angry fishers in Supreme Court stoush

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/abalone-deals-baloney-to-angry-fishers-in-supreme-court-stoush-20190823-p52k4r.html

    According to court documents, the state government recently granted abalone pearl company MAPA Pearls two 21-year Crown leases over six hectares of Gabo Island and three hectares of Tullaberga Island, thereby preventing other licensed divers from fishing in the area.

    The group of Victorian and NSW fishers want the leases torn up to prevent what they say will be a huge cost to their businesses.

    “The leased areas give exclusive possession to a private company. Everyone else is excluded,” said the group, in a statement provided by their lawyer, Jonathan Joseph.

    “The purpose of the Supreme Court proceeding commenced by our group is to test whether the decision made by the government to grant these leases was lawful.”

  28. Looking at the voting results for the Greens by state elections and then by federal elections, they have generally either flatlined on either side of around 10% or crashed significantly since 2010 with Tasmania being the worst performer by far and New South Wales not doing too well. Victoria, which has had roughly the same percentage at the last three polls, is a Greens Party bulwark.

    OTH, Greens supporters will argue that their vote is improving.

  29. RW framing on ABC News. ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged his critics’, should read ‘British PM Boris Johnston has outraged anyone with an IQ over 60’ 🙂

  30. The Australian PM has his priorities right.

    There is nothing more important than which toilets the public servants working in PM&C are allowed to use.

    The declining state of the Australian economy pales into insignificance. The continuing rise in energy prices is of no significance. The inability of wage earners to afford goods and the consequent decline of the retail sector – let them buy and eat cake. The massive decline in the construction sector – too much infrastructure anyway. The Trump/China trade war that is starting to cause misery across the globe including Australia – Frydenberg will fix it. And so on and so on….

  31. Boerwar,

    Nice attempt to dodge the fact that the Greens increased their representation from one to two at the last ACT election.

    Nice attempt to dodge the fact that the Greens are receiving primary votes into the 20s and 30s in Brisbane now.

    Unlike you, I won’t dodge because I don’t need to.

    ***

    “The ACT Greens vote has gone from 15.6% to 10.7% to 10.3% in the last three ACT elections.”

    ***

    During which time the Greens have remained a part of the still-current ACT government. It’s not uncommon for a parties to suffer swings during time in government. The ACT Labor Party suffered a monster -9.4% against it in 2008 but managed to stay in government thanks to the Greens.

    ***

    The ACT Senate vote has gone 19%, 16% to 17% in the last three Federal elections.
    The ACT Reps vote has gone 19%, 13%, 15%, 16% over the last four Federal elections.

    ***

    Which is hardly “flat-lining at 10%” lol. So now we have established that the Greens are receiving well above 10% in both the ACT and in Brisbane. You’re catching on! Well done! 😀

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