So much trouble in the world

Upheaval in conservative politics in New South Wales over abortion law; a pickle for Labor in Tasmania over a vacancy in state parliament; and suggestions of a looming state by-election in Victoria.

In New South Wales:

A row over a bill to decriminalise abortion is prompting murmurings about Gladys Berejiklian’s leadership just five months after she led the Coalition to an impressive election victory, with tremors that are being felt federally. The bill was introduced by independent MP Alex Greenwich, but its sponsors included the Berejiklian government’s Health Minister, Brad Hazzard. It was headed last week for passage through both houses of parliament, before Berejiklian bowed to conservative outrage by pushing back the final vote in the upper house by nearly a month. Claiming credit for this concession is Barnaby Joyce, whose high-profile interventions have angered his state Nationals colleagues, most of whom support the bill (prompting Mark Latham, who now holds a crucial upper house vote as a member of One Nation, to tar the party with the cultural Marxist brush). Following suggestions the party room had discussed expelling him from the party, Joyce said he would go of his own accord if four of them publicly called for him to do so. It doesn’t appear that is going to happen, but if it did, the government would be reduced from 77 seats in the House of Representatives out of 151, costing it its absolute majority on the floor.

In Tasmania:

Labor MP Scott Bacon’s decision to end his state parliamentary career, citing family reasons, represents an unwelcome turn of events for an already understaffed state opposition, owing to the manner in which parliamentary vacancies are filled under Hare-Clark. This will involve a “recount” (as officially known, though “countback” is the generally preferred term for such procedures) of the votes that got Bacon elected to his seat in Denison (which is now called Clark), either as first or subsequent preferences. The procedure is open to any unsuccessful candidates from the previous election who care to nominate, among whom is Madeleine Ogilvie, a former incumbent who was defeated in 2018 – possibly because progressive sentiment had been alienated by her social conservatism.

The problem for Labor is that Ogilvie has since parted company with the party, to the extent of running as an independent for an upper house seat in May. If she wins the recount, and no reconciliation with the party is forthcoming, there will be nothing to stop her sitting as an independent, reducing Labor from ten seats to nine in a chamber of 25. As explained by Kevin Bonham, we can see from the 2018 results that this will produce a “first preference” count in which 33.1% of the vote goes to Madeleine Ogilvie and 28.4% to Tim Cox, a former ABC Radio presenter who ran unsuccessfully, and has confirmed he will nominate for the recount. More than half the remainder went to candidates who are not in contention because they’re already in parliament, so it will assuredly be one or the other.

In Victoria:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports the Liberals have been conducting internal polling for former party leader Matthew Guy’s seat of Bulleen, prompting speculation he will shortly quit parliament. The Liberals retained the seat with a 5.8% margin even amid the debacle of last November’s election, and the polling is “believed to show the Liberal brand holding up”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,112 comments on “So much trouble in the world”

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  1. “The “Liberal” party sold the Temple to the money changers.”

    Did they get a better rate that Costello got for our gold reserves??

  2. Greens votes in states and territory for the past decade.

    ACT

    Leglislative Assembly
    2008 = 15.6%
    2012 = 10.7%
    2016 = 10.3%

    Change over decade =minus 5.3%
    Change since peak = minus 5.3%

    NT

    2008 = 4.17%
    2012 = 3.3%
    2016 = – 2.9%

    Change over decade = minus 1.27%
    Change since peak = minus 1.27%

    Queensland
    2009 = 8.37%
    2012 = 7.52%
    2015 = 8.43%
    2017 = 10%

    Change over decade = plus 1.63%
    Change since peak = 0%

    Western Australia
    Legislative Assembly
    2008 = 11.92%
    2013 = 8.39%
    2017 = 8.91%
    Change over decade = minus 2.01%
    Change singe peak = minus 2.01%

    Western Australia
    Legislative Council
    2008 = 11.08%
    2013 = 8.21%
    2017 = 8.91%
    Change over decade = minus 1.17%
    Change since peak = minus 1.17%

    New South Wales
    State Lower House
    2011 = 10.3%
    2015 = 10.3%
    2019 = 9.6%
    Change over decade = minus .7%
    Change from peak = minus .7%

    Tasmania
    State Lower House
    2010 = 21.6%
    2014 = 13.8%
    2018 = 10.6%
    Change over decade = minus 11%
    Change from peak = minus 11%

    Victoria
    State
    2010 = 11.2%
    2014 = 11.5%
    2018 = 10.7%
    Change over decade = minus .5%
    Change from peak = minus .8%.

  3. imacca @ #1999 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 8:33 pm

    “Save your ALP membership money, its over! Maybe donate it to a charity if you have surplus funds.”

    LvT…i genuinely pity the frightened and insecure RWNJ’s like yourself who fall back on the most pathetic aspects of the playbook like that. This recurring thing across the RW of the spectrum of calling for anyone with a different opinion or belief to “just give up now” ?? Appealing to people to just quit any debate so you can feel safe and right and not be challenged? You deserve no respect or sympathy for showing yourself up as such a pathetic twat….only pity.

    Exactly. Did the Liberal Party membership get told to give up now and save your Liberal membership money when Damian Mantach was caught out stealing over a million dollars from the Victorian branch? Or when Sarah Henderson had Nazi sympathisers working for her campaign? Or a thousand and one other infringements and improprieties, especially wrt donations to the Liberal Party and the workarounds they have crafted in order to make them opaque? Or the ‘8×5’ matter that came to light in the NSW ICAC wrt Chris Hartcher and others in the Liberal Party here on the Central Coast?

    Nope. Nope. Nope.

  4. This brouhaha over public toilets is quite simply ridiculous. It was ridiculous in the US, and it’s no less ridiculous here.

    If Scotty hasn’t got anything more substantial to focus on he should resign.

  5. In a 2 party system that heavilly advantages the 2 majors, the greens are “succeeding” in the sense that they still have representation after several decades. Unlike myriad of other minor parties that have come and gone including the democrats.

    BW if your point is to say that inability to form govt = failure, then sure the greens are failures. Congatulations, point made. I will, nevertheless, keep voting for them, not because I necessarily expect them to suddenly win government, but because they align closest with my beliefs and political ideology.

    But i dont feel so bad, pretty soon labor will be in greens territory the way their primary vote is heading 😉

  6. It looks like Morrison has learnt nothing from earlier encounters…

    ‘But when asked about the sign later on Thursday, Mr Morrison said: “I don’t think this is necessary. I think people can work out which room to use”.

    “It’s ridiculous … It’s political correctness over the top,” he told 2GB Radio.

    “I’ve got a pretty clear view about this and I’m sure this will be sorted.”

    Asked whether the signs would come down, Mr Morrison said: “That’s what I expect”.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-wants-to-remove-ridiculous-gender-inclusive-toilet-signs

  7. ‘rhwombat says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 8:50 pm

    Boerwar @ #2008 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    What’s Morrison got the shits about now?

    The Engadine Macca’s?’

    Oh that. He was gender questioning which dunny was for him and it all got too much for him.

  8. sprocket_ @ #2012 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    It looks like Morrison has learnt nothing from earlier encounters…

    ‘But when asked about the sign later on Thursday, Mr Morrison said: “I don’t think this is necessary. I think people can work out which room to use”.

    “It’s ridiculous … It’s political correctness over the top,” he told 2GB Radio.

    “I’ve got a pretty clear view about this and I’m sure this will be sorted.”

    Asked whether the signs would come down, Mr Morrison said: “That’s what I expect”.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scott-morrison-wants-to-remove-ridiculous-gender-inclusive-toilet-signs

    So, you reckon he’s talking to you?

    Or, (hint) people that vote for him?

  9. In the 1890s Australia’s politics divided between workers, protectionists (city business) and free traders (graziers and other rural interests). Liberals (small l) must have divided themselves amoung the three. Later on, the protectionists and free traders got together as the party of business to oppose Labor. Rural interests briefly split off from business but were brought back in via Coalition. Meanwhile, bits of Labor split off to join the Business party.

    During WW2, the Business party died of incompetence. Business interests got together to found the “Liberal” party, which tolerated a few token liberals but they were mostly kept away from the levers of power.

    So liberals in Australia have never had anywhere to go. They can join the “Liberal” party with Big Business, plutocrats, religious crackpots and racists, and be impotent. Or they could join with Labor and have some influence, provided they accept a high degree of union influence. Or they could join the Greens and be impotent.

  10. ‘Confessions says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 8:49 pm

    This brouhaha over public toilets is quite simply ridiculous. It was ridiculous in the US, and it’s no less ridiculous here.

    If Scotty hasn’t got anything more substantial to focus on he should resign.’

    Mr Morrison is talking to his base. Successfully again, I imagine.

  11. So, you reckon he’s talking to you?

    Or, (hint) people that vote for him?

    If he has so much authority within his partyroom why isn’t he acting more Prime Ministerial, and not kowtowing to ridiculous culture wars bullshit?

  12. Boerwar:

    But why is he talking to his base rather than taking the opportunity and supposed partyroom authority his shock election win gave him, and talking to all Australians? Does anyone really care about a sign on the staff toilets in a government department building?

  13. GG

    The Daily ToiletPaper’s lead writer on gender fluidity, Miranda Devine, has been conducting a jihad against gender neutral dunnies. I can’t tell if she is influencing Morrison, but the bogan tradies who read that stuff will guffaw in their utes tomorrow and double down on voting Liberal.

  14. Big A Adrian

    Both left parties are going backwards.

    Labor is doing some serious soul searching and will revamp its policy offerings.

    The Greens continue to declare victory and will change none of their policies.

    Meanwhile, the Right is wrecking the joint.

    Apart from that, I am not sure what your point was. Is this good? Does this satisfy you? Do you think we should be exploring alternatives?

  15. ‘Confessions says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 8:59 pm

    Boerwar:

    But why is he talking to his base rather than taking the opportunity and supposed partyroom authority his shock election win gave him, and talking to all Australians? Does anyone really care about a sign on the staff toilets in a government department building?’

    What he did last time made him Prime Minister. Why change?
    What HE did last time lost Shorten the job. Labor changed.
    What HE did last time kept Di Natale in the job. The Greens vote has gone down for the decade and down from their peak vote in every state and territory except for Queensland. The Greens have not changed.

  16. Boerwar @ #2021 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    Big A Adrian

    Both left parties are going backwards.

    Labor is doing some serious soul searching and will revamp its policy offerings.

    The Greens continue to declare victory and will change none of their policies.

    Meanwhile, the Right is wrecking the joint.

    Apart from that, I am not sure what your point was. Is this good? Does this satisfy you? Do you think we should be exploring alternatives?

    To be fair, they won the election and are entitled to pursue their objectives.

  17. The Great Dunny Culture Wars has attracted the usual suspects.

    Are we talking about the massive land clearing, the dying Reef, the dry rivers, the acceleration of extinction rates? Are we talking about the parlous state of the economy? Are we talking about wage stagnation? Are we talking about record household debt?

    No. We are talking about stuff that delights Ley and Morrison and Frydenberg.

    50 years ago the great drama was about men leaving the seat up.

  18. BW “Meanwhile, the Right is wrecking the joint.”

    Exactly. And yet you are far more obsessed with some petty vendetta against the greens. Like most of the labor cabal here. Bizarre. Still at least you acknowledge the greens are on the left. Briefly actually believes the greens are on the right.

  19. Whilst Morrison spends his time on dunny signs, the earth is in trouble..

    #BREAKING Rising seas could displace 280 million people in 2˚C world: draft UN report

  20. sprocket_ @ #2020 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    GG

    The Daily ToiletPaper’s lead writer on gender fluidity, Miranda Devine, has been conducting a jihad against gender neutral dunnies. I can’t tell if she is influencing Morrison, but the bogan tradies who read that stuff will guffaw in their utes tomorrow and double down on voting Liberal.

    The only way you stop it influencing your opinions and life is to stop reading.

    Find a cafe with other papers or read your news on your device of your own choice.

  21. Not forgetting, of course, catching social diseases off toilet seats AND/OR getting pregnant from sitting on toilet seats.
    These were both hot epidemiological questions when I was a lad.

  22. I’m with ScoMo on this one. It is a ridiculous identity leftist sign and sends a political signal. None of that nonsense when I was in PM&C although Max Moore-Wilton did fart in a lift once in my presence.

  23. Boerwar:

    I’d be surprised if Scotty being baited over gender inclusive toilets in a Canberra government building resonates with anyone other than transgender Australians, and the 2GB crowd. That he’s gotten embroiled in this issue is the ultimate Canberra bubble thing.

    Meanwhile the planet is burning quite literally, and Australia has a weak, incompetent and policy-void government.

  24. When you have no policies or direction or even any vision on actual matters of government, I guess Morrison has to find something to talk about. Dunny war is as good as anything I suppose.

  25. History

    Ah, Max the Axe – he also liked to get on the turps in his office, yet still be in a fit state to drive himself home. But I will say something for him – he was the only Secretary of PM&C to front Senate Estimates regularly.

  26. Re GG @9:03.
    “To be fair, they [the Coalition{ won the election and are entitled to pursue their objectives.”

    Only those they told us about, which as I recall is pretty much limited to keep giving free money to wealthy retirees with shares and to keep doing nothing about climate change.

    Anyway, when it comes to legislation in the Senate, if Labor can muster the numbers to block it, think “what would a Coalition Opposition do?” and do likewise.

  27. Steve777 @ #2033 Thursday, August 29th, 2019 – 9:16 pm

    Re GG @9:03.
    “To be fair, they [the Coalition{ won the election and are entitled to pursue their objectives.”

    Only those they told us about, which as I recall is pretty much limited to keep giving free money to wealthy retirees with shares and to keep doing nothing about climate change.

    Anyway, when it comes to legislation in the Senate, if Labor can muster the numbers to block it, think “what would a Coalition Opposition do?” and do likewise.

    Just because they lie, doesn’t mean they can’t do it.

  28. One of my favourite US political commentators articulates the issue I can see with a Joe Walsh primary challenge to Trump: it emboldens him to run as a third party candidate, thereby being a gift to Trump’s re-election.

    The more plausible, and more dangerous, outcome of any Republican primary challenge is that it turns into a right-leaning, third-party effort in the general election that splits the anti-Trump vote, not Trump’s support, because it would allow right-leaning voters to slide into a second Trump term untainted by actually voting for the man himself. As in 2016, they could say that they voted neither for a Democrat — perish the thought — nor for Trump.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/28/no-thanks-joe-walsh-your-primary-challenge-might-only-help-trump/

  29. BoJo’s clown show failing to draw laughs..

    Here’s a summary of the latest fallout from Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament:

    A legal bid to prevent Johnson from proroguing parliament will be heard in court on Thursday afternoon. The hearing is scheduled to take place at Parliament House in Edinburgh at 12pm, with Lord Doherty presiding.

    A separate attempt to stop the move is also under way at the high court in Belfast.

    Ruth Davidson has confirmed her decision to resign as leader of the Scottish Conservatives. In her resignation letter she cited both the conflict she feels over Brexit and her desire to achieve a better balance between her working and family life.

    Lord Young of Cookham, a government whip in the Lords, has resigned. He said he was “very unhappy” with the decision to prorogue parliament for an extended period as the the 31 October deadline for Brexit looms.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has defended the decision to suspend parliament and claimed the outpouring of outrage it triggered was “confected”. He also accused the Speaker, John Bercow, of being constitutionally “improper” by criticising the move.

    The former de facto deputy prime minister David Lidington has joined those condemning prorogation, describing it as an attempt to gag parliament. He said: “It prevents MPs from asking questions. It prevents many ministers from being held to account by parliamentary select committees. And I think that is not a good way to do democracy.”

    Bob Kerslake, a former head of the civil service, said that if he was in post under a government that prorogued parliament in the way Johnson did, he would resign. “I think it is unacceptable behaviour going on at the moment,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/29/backlash-after-boris-johnson-prorogues-parliament-ahead-of-brexit-live-news

  30. I’m surprised that no one has celebrated the equal opportunity nature of the NSW ALP corruption – that’s taking equal opportunity to the limit.

  31. So I guess the bomb that was supposed to have been thrown last night at the branch meeting went down the same rabbit hole as the shocking revelations that were going to turn Albo’s career into a political puddle.

    The Tsar has not been warned, it seems.

  32. BW
    I had a HIV positive patient who told wife he got it from a toilet seat. He didn’t. His wife asked me if you could get HIV from a toilet seat.

  33. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, August 29, 2019 at 9:37 pm

    Do I think that people don’t need signs telling them how to choose which toilet to use? Absolutely.

    Do you know anyone above the age of 5 who needs a sign like the one in question?

    I don’t- including the Trans people who have looked after my kids and the ones I was in the Army with ( both Regular and Reservists).

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