Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 5:45 pm

    BW
    So they publish Paluszcuks appointments diary and she met the spy?
    Bit unfortunate.’

    Given the consequences someone should get an enormous kick up the arse, IMO.

  2. Andrew_Earlwood @ #290 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    What shits me most about our bunch of feckless left wing keyboard warriors is that I have actual experience in advising union protests, pickets and various other media attention seeking stunts, especially regarding the ‘safe rates’ campaigns and other disruptive activities run by the union. There is a fine line between peaceful protest and disobedience that could lead to prosecution or being sued. Real activists who are fair dinkum know that and accept the risks.

    That is not to say that some laws that are used against citizens – whether they be protesters are not unjust. The anti union laws that successive conservative governments going back to Fraser provide good examples. As do the Vlad laws and consorting laws. Increases in police powers should always be closely scrutinised, which is what the civil liberties council is calling for. That is all a far cry from the absurd pile on by the anti labor clique -whether it be the Bludger brigade or the guardians collection of resident trots.

    Mate, you’ve got lived experience, good will and a real understanding of the right options to choose.

    But, the shouties know better!

  3. “The ALP is conforming to idiocy.

    No thanks. I’d rather die on my feet than die slower on my knees at the alter of idiocy.”

    Oh Rex.

    No. Labor is a political party that is committed to achieving progress via the political institutions that exist in the country. That means winning (either in its own right or in coalition if needs be) a majority of the seats in federal parliament.

    The reality is that voters in the outer rim suburbs of our major cities and in the regional centres have drifted away from labor. They haven’t drifted towards your brand of politics, or the Greens or even labor left. They have gone to the Liberals since 1996 in every election bar one.

    As a matter of democracy and simple mathematics labor – indeed any political party – must build support across a cross section. I can’t see how any party or coalition that is left of the LNP can do that without reaching out and winning back those voters.

    Jackol is correct in identifying the actual zeitgeist of these folk. They are not open to traditional persuasion. They are not going to be excited about left wing causes. Or environmentalism. Or anything really other than some simple hip pocket nerve issues.

    The challenge for all of us non LNP folk is to find a way to get through to them without disrupting the other parts of the political consensus that Labor (or the Greens, or both of us) need to build. In short we need them, and we can’t afford to simply disregard them just because they are not woke to your identity politics. Or may have dabbled with ON or Palmer.

    I am still optimistic that when the dust settles the Greens will allow labor to reach out to these folk without applying the wedge that would kill such overtures. I think labor needs to sell hope – and things like ending long term unemployment, Working Nation 2.0, paid work for the dole, increasing wages and job security together with further middle class tax cuts could work. The dividend for that is that if labor can win the trust of these folk back, then they may not mind if labor and the Greens get to do some other stuff as well. Stuff that even you might approve of.

  4. Drove through the drought-stricken Darling Downs.
    Normal annual agricultural production around $3 billion.
    We estimated that less than five per cent of cropping land in the Downs was sown down and then only where the farmer had access to water for irrigation.
    Is fucked.

  5. An example of what the ALP could have done.

    The Liberals tell you they are great economic managers…really
    The UK has Brexit and an unemployment rate of 4%
    The US has Trump, trade wars and an unemployment rate of 3%
    The Liberals have been in government for six years but unemployment is above 5%
    Clearly not good economic managers

  6. poroti says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 4:34 pm

    Well done C@t and briefly. After giving Labor first preference at every fed election and all but one state election you have persuaded me that Labor is not the party I imagined it was. So persuasive have you been Labor can feck off getting my vote with a number higher than 4 at the next election.

    Time for a break.

    Why not, the result is the same as a second preference to Labor. Public funding to undermine Labor

  7. Labor have already been following the Jackol formula for decades. They take great care to maintain neoliberal myths about how money works. They are milquetoast moderates, but this doesn’t make them representative of the median voter. They are significantly to the right of the median voter. They do nothing to change the narrative about what policy options are possible. They limit themselves to technocratic tinkering; they don’t attempt structural and systemic changes. They focus their attention on the professional class; they do little for the working class and the underclass. They capitulate to the LNP on civil liberties and national security. They have no real agenda, no ideas of their own. You might almost say they are an organization with no brain. They do not inspire confidence, they do not earn trust. They expect to win government on the basis of being marginally less awful than the LNP. They are gormless, witless, and cowardly. They bear much responsibility for our lack of progress in preventing apocalypse-inducing global warming. Historians will judge them even more harshly than I do.

  8. Diogenes @ #294 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    C@t
    1. Queensland gets 7% of its power from RE. That’s half of what the US gets from RE. Queensland is a RE embarrassment.

    2. Labor has gone along with every erosion of civil liberties in the name of national security in the last five years and even tried to censor the internet like China. A few sandwiches means nothing.

    Another short-sighted comment. Oh dear.

    Simple question, which party of government in Queensland is actually trying to turn the RE ship around and which one wants to destroy it?

    As for #2, you’ll have to provide evidence that proves it as conclusively as you make it sound.

  9. “Well said. A fair and balanced overview of the real situation.”

    Careful, GG – PegaFox News will sue you for copyright violation: it’s the only “Fair and Balanced” reporting service on Bludger.

  10. Pegasus @ #238 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 2:02 pm

    Doesn’t the Australian Labor Party’s national platform include an objective of “democratic socialism” ? Though iirc moves were made relatively recently to expunge the term from its manifesto as democratic socialism has not been reflected in the party’s policies for decades.

    Any reference to democratic socialism has been replaced with the slogan “All the way with the IPA”.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood @ #303 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    “The ALP is conforming to idiocy.

    No thanks. I’d rather die on my feet than die slower on my knees at the alter of idiocy.”

    Oh Rex.

    No. Labor is a political party that is committed to achieving progress via the political institutions that exist in the country. That means winning (either in its own right or in coalition if needs be) a majority of the seats in federal parliament.

    The reality is that voters in the outer rim suburbs of our major cities and in the regional centres have drifted away from labor. They haven’t drifted towards your brand of politics, or the Greens or even labor left.

    As a matter of democracy and simple mathematics labor – indeed any political party – must build support across a cross section. I can’t see how any party that is left of the LNP can do that without reaching out and winning back those voters.

    Jackol is correct in identifying the actual zeitgeist of these folk. They are not open to traditional persuasion. They are not going to be existed about left wing causes. Or environemntalism. Or anything really other than some simple hip pocket nerve issues.

    The challenge for all of us non LNP folk is to find a way to get through to them without disrupting the other parts of the political consensus labor (or the Greens, or both of us) need to build. In short we need them, and we can’t afford to simply disregard them just because they are not woke to your identity politics.

    I am still optimist when the dust settles the Greens will allow labor to reach out to these folk without the wedge that would kill theses overtures. I think labor needs to sell hope – and things like ending long term unemployment, paid work for the dole, increasing wages and job security and middle class tax cuts could work. The dividend for that is that if labor can win the trust of these folk back, then they may not mind if labor and the Greens get to do some other stuff as well.

    Your error here is that you give the Greens more than the time of day. Labor don’t need their permission to do anything. Labor will go where the votes are for us to Govern. The Greens and their ilk can get on board with extreme moderation or fuck off!

    But, thank them for the preferences.

  12. Dan Gulberry @ #315 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 5:58 pm

    Pegasus @ #238 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 2:02 pm

    Doesn’t the Australian Labor Party’s national platform include an objective of “democratic socialism” ? Though iirc moves were made relatively recently to expunge the term from its manifesto as democratic socialism has not been reflected in the party’s policies for decades.

    Any reference to democratic socialism has been replaced with the slogan “All the way with the IPA”.

    The moron is strong in this one. But he doesn’t read what I write any more so I can get away with being blunt. 🙂

  13. judywilkins @judyfree10
    ·
    1h
    TWO things Labor does not have..
    Access to media to present and debate their position
    A Parliament that actually sits long enough to have that debate.
    Labor has been shut down and not by Labor.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood @ #313 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 5:58 pm

    “Well said. A fair and balanced overview of the real situation.”

    Careful, GG – PegaFox News will sue you for copyright violation: it’s the only “Fair and Balanced” reporting service on Bludger.

    Pegs just a rich maven from Forest Hill. Superannuated and rich enough to be a full time radical socialist.

  15. Diogenes @ #293 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    C@t
    1. Queensland gets 7% of its power from RE. That’s half of what the US gets from RE. Queensland is a RE embarrassment.

    You keep quoting this but the relevant background comprises:

    1. Queensland has a fairly new fleet of supercritical coal generators. I think, without cheeking, that these were probably built during the Beattie government. At the time this would have seemed the right environmental thing to do, prior to the large decreases in renewable prices and in the absence of proper federal policies.

    2. Obviously little was done to advance environmental issue during the Newman government.

    3.There is a large amount of utility solar and wind generation in the pipeline at least partly because of the backing of the government and its 50% target. There are also plans to extend the grid as necessary to connect new projects.

    4. There is a very high penetration of rooftop solar in Queensland, the size of which is almost a bit uncertain.

    The main value to Queensland of its coal generation fleet in the next decade or so will be to make money out of selling electricity to NSW and Victoria to make up for their underinvestment in generation infrastructure in general.

  16. GG

    Speculation is such fun isn’t it. Facts never come into it. Your interest in the life you imagine I live and where I live is sweet but it lacks any creativity.

  17. Barnyard getting a touch of the Dotard’s…

    EXCLUSIVE – Barnaby Joyce’s threat to quit the Nationals Party – he tells #7NEWS he WILL resign and sit on the crossbench IF at least 4 state Nationals members publicly declare they have lost support in him. Full story at 6pm. #auspol

  18. PegaRex have been diligent in their critique of Barnyard today, leaving aside the swingeing of Morrison’s boys toys with Dotard..

    And I thought RDN delivered a masterclass on RN this morning – arguing compellingly that if the clock was just turned back, everything would be fine in the Persian Gulf.

  19. Based on NEM real time data at OpenNEM opennem.org.au

    Qld has now been over 10% renewables for every month since Jul 2018 now. Overwhelmingly on the back of huge amounts of rooftop solar funded by the people. The various governments being apparently useless on this front. Nevertheless the Qld people have historically been putting their money into this more than anyone.

    For Qld Jul 2019 was apparently 12.2% renewables, 16.6% in January

    They are only just starting to get going with wind and large solar. Years behind other states.

    Whilst July 2019 for the whole NEM seems to have been 24% renewables, with total Jul 2019 solar being greater than Jan and Dec 2017 solar.

    A few times this week wholesale prices have been pushed to zero with around 40% renewables between 10.30 and 3.00 pretty regularly. This is winter before the equinox. As the longer days arrive we will probably see record generation by solar and wind over the coming year and forcing coalers to run at lower capacity during the main part of the day than they do at the usually quiet 4 am.

    Coal is on the way to be being driven out and really it is only the idiocy and incompetence of the LNP and apparently the ALP coal boosters that are hindering this process.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/prices-hit-zero-again-across-the-grid-as-renewables-output-tops-10gw-57491/

  20. sprocket_ @ #324 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    Barnyard getting a touch of the Dotard’s…

    EXCLUSIVE – Barnaby Joyce’s threat to quit the Nationals Party – he tells #7NEWS he WILL resign and sit on the crossbench IF at least 4 state Nationals members publicly declare they have lost support in him. Full story at 6pm. #auspol

    Barnaby’s a serial loser in these sorts of matters. Apparently, the best retail politician in the country has lost out to the Amazon of public opinion. His only chance of relevance/influence is to be on the cross bench threatening to do something dastardly to the Government.

  21. ajm
    7% is the latest figure (2017). Qld does have the highest household solar and they point out Qld has a lot in the pipeline.
    But 7% compared to 45 in SA and ACT and 80 in Tassie is dreadful. Qld is was the lowest state for RE % in 2017.

  22. lizzie @ #319 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    judywilkins @judyfree10
    ·
    1h
    TWO things Labor does not have..
    Access to media to present and debate their position
    A Parliament that actually sits long enough to have that debate.
    Labor has been shut down and not by Labor.

    Exactly. It’s what I have been saying for yonks, especially to snipers like mundo. It’s not that Labor aren’t criticising the government with passion and commitment, it’s the fact that no one in the media feels fussed to report it. It’s really dispiriting, as it must be to the members of the FPLP.

  23. poroti @ #268 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 2:34 pm

    Well done C@t and briefly. After giving Labor first preference at every fed election and all but one state election you have persuaded me that Labor is not the party I imagined it was. So persuasive have you been Labor can feck off getting my vote with a number higher than 4 at the next election.

    Time for a break.

    Couldn’t have said it better myself. I’ve voted 1 Labor at every Federal election, and every state election bar one (NSW 2011) myself . I even held my nose and put Labor first after the WA Inc scandal. But no more.

    If Labor represents people like c@ttymomma, Earlwood, frednk, zoidlord, boerwar, briefly, and their sycophants, they no longer represent me.

    I haven’t abandoned Labor, Labor has abandoned me and people like me. Labor are the real “LibKins” , enabling every draconian, tyrannical, anti-people, anti-worker, anti-environment policy the real Libs put before parliament. And the aforementioned shitheads want Labor to abandon people like me even more and chase One Nation voters instead. Their blind partisanship has rendered them unaware of what a disaster for Labor that will be. A 33% primary vote is going to be remembered as the good old days in future elections.

  24. AE

    How debilitating for you to be continually in a state of fulmination and having to spend so much time sitting on the pot shitting.

    May I suggest a calming cup of peppermint or chamomile tea.

  25. Diogenes @ #331 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:24 pm

    ajm
    7% is the latest figure (2017). Qld does have the highest household solar and they point out Qld has a lot in the pipeline.
    But 7% compared to 45 in SA and ACT and 80 in Tassie is dreadful. Qld is was the lowest state for RE % in 2017.

    SA has the history of investment during the Labor government. ACT is a very small market which has been a lot easier to push to that level. TAS has always been high because of hydro. Not a good three to choose for comparison.

    I would think that looking forward, Qld will be in a good position. Figures posted by Quoll above show there has already been a considerable improvement off the low base.

    Labor in Queensland is certainly not boosting coal for domestic power generation – the only issue is with coal for export.

  26. Pegasus @ #339 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:33 pm

    AE

    How debilitating for you to be continually in a state of fulmination and having to spend so much time sitting on the pot shitting.

    May I suggest a calming cup of peppermint or chamomile tea.

    I pity you, Pegasus, I really do. Anyone who gets their jollies attempting to humiliate Labor supporters on this blog, day in, day out, is a very pathetic individual indeed.

  27. Dan Gulberry @ #338 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    Jackol @ #283 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 3:06 pm

    This is politics, they must respond to what the voters demand or simply give up any hope of forming government in the foreseeable future.

    There go my people. I must find out where they’re going so I can lead them.

    There goes you talking to people in the way they want to be talked to.

    A good rule of political success is to frame your arguments so those you want to influence will listen. Of course, if you don’t want to do that and are pathologically incapable of such an approach, then rejoice in the joy of frustration and irrelevance. Which, you seem to do a lot.

  28. lol! Been reading some of the reporting on BoJo / Brexit and his trip to Europe. With all the bluff, bluster and coniptions that have gone on over months, the situation hasn’t actually changed at all. The Poms STILL have only 3 realistic outcomes here:

    No Deal and out of the EU on Oct 31st.

    Accept the Withdrawl deal that May negotiated and out of the EU on Oct 31st.

    Cancel Brexit altogether……………somehow by someone depending on the political manuvering being done by others in the Parliament.

    Their politicians just dont seem to accept the reality that regardless of anything they get through their own Parliament, thats the objective reality?? And…they are setting up a situation where any future negotiations of trade with the EU are going to be harder as they are pissing the EU off big time and the EU will be after some payback to compensate for the costs that Brexit will inflict on them.

  29. Re: Aurecon terminating its relationship with Adani
    I call post hoc ergo propter hoc on all three commentators (Mr. Canavan, Adlani and the activists). They’re all pushing their respective barrows. Instead, Aurecon likely did as a business does (and should): it stopped because it started t fear it might not get paid.

  30. Dutton’s justification for our latest ME enterprize is interesting: wtte, we help them so they will help us. De facto, it amounts to a total abrogation of our sovereignty and carte blanche to US military demands of Australia.
    Dutton enunciated no other principles.
    At another level, Dutton did not bother with explaining why we should put ourselves in the hand of the Second Coming of God.
    And before the Greens get totally carried away with the usual blither blather about the benefits of their plan to destroy the ADF, they might consider how much good bows and arrows did for the West Papuans v M1s in the hands of Kopassus.

  31. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 5:58 pm

    I think Qld labor is trying to slow the RE rollout in at least one way (Laws about using electricians to install solar PV)

    I think QLD LNP is trying to stop it all together.

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