The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.
Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.
The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.
Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.
Doyley
Do yourself a favour. Watch the Democratic Presidential Debates.
See things from a different perspective. A party fighting back after massive defeat.
Both major parties and the mainstream media have been, and continue to be, on a unity ticket to demonise the Greens party as “extremists ” and “purists”, with the sole purpose to ensure the Greens vote does not exceed a 10% ceiling.
guytaur,
Good luck with the no new coal mines policy.
Perhaps you can launch your campaign in central Queensland with Bob Brown and co while offering to retrain 30 year plus coal miners as baristas.
Doyley
You are in science denial. You have a choice. Stop opening and thus expanding existing industry or kill your children and grand children.
That’s what the science says
guytaur,
I have no interest in America.
All I will say is no one, yourself included, has any idea how “ effective” any democratic climate policy will be until Election Day.
Even pretending the great democratic comeback is on the way on the back of some yet to be decided climate policy is delusional.
Doyley
In other words you are scared that there are good campaigning strategies to be used for the climate and win elections
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/24/anthony-albanese-seeks-to-reopen-wounds-of-turnbull-coup-in-fresh-pitch-to-queensland
Anyone else watched American Factory on Netflix?
One example of using climate change in a campaign to swing conservatives is Phelps. She campaigned on three issues:
* climate change and children’s future
* more humane treatment of asylum seekers
* payback for sacking Turnbull
She got elected.
The same electorate voted next time for Sharma who mouthed platitudes, at best, about climate and refugees.
My point is, for all the hoopla, climate change is not translating into a vote swinger. Likewise with Steggall, she got elected because she wasn’t Abbott, not her climate posturing.
Itza
Yes. For Labor it can lose a lot of voters being seen as working for coal donors. Both those candidates won by talking about corruption of the political system not representing voters.
As ordinary people begin to experience and understand the increasing ravages of AGW, the major parties’ ” climate posturing” will be there for all to see.
Unfortunately, by then it will far too late.
guytaur @ #1010 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
I think they won because they presented a soft option to conservative voters, without the need to actually confront the reality of actually having to do something about the climate. Labor represents having to do something, and is polling badly, very badly, for this and all the other reasons, long ago listed here, not because it is ‘working for coal donors’.
You are seeing this through a green prism, which is where you are. I understand, sort of, but don’t agree.
DisplayName @ #1012 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 2:02 pm
By now it is far too late I reckon. It’s like it has to happen, as terrifying as that is.
frednk @ #931 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 11:41 am
What I ‘get’ is that Labor is hopelessly conflicted on this issue. You can see it here day after day now. The arguments given for perpetuating our export and use of coal are worse than simply nonsensical – they are verging on genocidal.
Labor partisans here on PB are making themselves look increasingly foolish by trying to defend the indefensible. They should instead by trying to convince Labor to amend the policy, because it is going to become increasingly apparent just how silly Labor’s position really is.
Australia is lagging the world, and we will one day be brought to book. And because we do not seem to have the foresight to prepare for this eventuality, many Australians will very likely end up suffering more than they needed to.
Off to Bunnings. The winds are summery warm north westerlies today ahead of a change with some paltry moisture in it. Not much. The sun has a sting in it already.
Libs don’t bother with “climate posturing”. They sit smugly back and do nothing.
I haven’t noticed much “posturing” from Labor, either, as far as solutions.
“One example of using climate change in a campaign to swing conservatives is Phelps. She campaigned on three issues:
* climate change and children’s future
* more humane treatment of asylum seekers
* payback for sacking Turnbull”
That works in a place like Vaucluse or Bondi where liberal attitudes prevail and people don’t read the Daily Rupert (or if they do, know it’s crap). Also, she didn’t threaten their tax cuts, franking credits or negatively geared investments. I doubt that it would work in places like Lindsay (“aspirational”) and certainly not in regional areas.
itza
Talking about a “Green” prism when discussing this is part of your denial.
You don’t understand the Labor base or why Labor has been losing votes and why Rudd won them in 07.
You have also bought into the right wing framing.
The voters care on climate. Progressive voters will vote against parties that are for coal. That’s enough to keep Labor out of power.
Labor can’t win by going to the right and being seen as being for coal. It’s a guarantee of losing the election.
It moves the climate from neutral to negative for Labor. Just as voters buying Close down coal mines will again be the LNP claim. Again voters will believe them not Labor.
It’s not closing coal mines. It’s not opening new ones.
The key word being new.
#weatheronPB. First 25 degree day of the season in Sydney.
Steve777 @ #1018 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 2:13 pm
Which is what I was saying Steve. She and Steggall were/are the climate change candidates you have when you don’t want a climate change candidate.
Most voters care about the climate and about the environment as long as it doesn’t cost them a cent. That’s the problem.
Steve777 @ #1023 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 2:19 pm
And little do they know.
Steve
Nope. See US Presidential campaign.
Get some real world experience of candidates selling climate policy against the expected extremist denial of the US right wing.
nath @ #1008 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 11:48 am
Will do sometime this weekend.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/11445260
WA Labor’s state conference has been engulfed by chaotic scenes, with a large number of delegates walking out, and the party’s president left on the verge of tears.
https://amp.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/factional-war-overshadows-mcgowan-s-speech-to-two-thirds-empty-conference-room-20190824-p52kcj.html
Factional war overshadows McGowan’s speech to two-thirds empty conference room
[“He’s managed, just, to keep it together. He’s been able to compartmentalise. He’s the sort of complainant you’d want as a Victoria Police detective alleging historic crime.”]
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/courts-law/the-heartbreaking-reason-george-pells-accuser-stayed-silent-for-so-long/news-story/cd0c655946ca0a3496264998e889303e
Do voters care about the climate and the environment? Recent Australian electoral history suggests that many do, so long as it doesn’t cost them a cent. But that’s a generalisation, of course. Attitudes differ:
– the Coalition base don’t care. These are the people who surveys say will eschew any product labelled “environment friendly” or similar. Global warming is a communist-greenie conspiracy. The environment is for hippies.
– Those who care strongly. They vote Green or Labor. None vote Coalition.
– The uninformed. They might care about the environment and climate but believe the Coalition’s lies that they can be looked after at no cost. They vote for whoever offers the biggest tax cuts / bribes
– those who might be concerned but don’t want to pay. Probably the same as the uninformed, with significant overlap with that group.
“It is understood there was only a single vote margin between Mr McGowan’s left faction allies and the resurgent right faction, which is known as Progressive Labor and includes the powerful SDA shopworkers union and the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMMEU).”
Steve777 @ #1023 Saturday, August 24th, 2019 – 12:19 pm
My first school teacher upon arriving in Australia in 1971 described the “Great Australian Psyche” (such as there is one) as being apathy. The “She’ll be right, mate” attitude still pervades. Australians know something has to be done about climate change but someone else will take care of it so there’s nothing “I” need to do.
Steve
Labor cannot win by losing voters. It has to gain them. Back coal lose voters from the left. Lose elections as a result.
That’s why the LNP can wedge. They have gone extreme where now it’s normal for them to win by one seat.
Labor needs to show some spine and appeal to the centre. Not outrage and piss off the voters on the left.
ItzaDream @1.25 pm:
Yes, Simone Young . As one of the “ancient subscribers*”I heard it at the Thursday afternoon concert and thought it was excellent. It was one of those performances where, when the final movement concludes, instead of applause immediately breaking out, there is not a sound heard while the audience holds its breath still absorbing what has just occurred.
I was surprised to read in the program notes that it was last performed by the SSO in 1986. Too long between drinks, so to speak.
Unfortunate re “Luminous “. I tend these days not to go to evening performances, although I am looking forward to Geoffrey Lancaster and the fortepiano on Monday week.
* term used by an acquaintance at the Gerstein afternoon concert in the Town Hall as she looked out on what she described as”a sea of grey hair”.
2 days ago
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/labor-factional-war-brews-as-fish-army-mobilises-over-kwinana-port-plans-20190821-p52jh3.html
A bitter power struggle involving WA Labor’s influential United Voice union looks set to blow up at the party’s state conference this weekend over rule changes intended to curtail the power of branches controlled by its factional opponents.
The union is understood to be pushing for limits on the influence of the party’s nine direct branches, which are organised to represent interest groups rather than geographical areas.
Are the Greens the piss in the pot?
B
You’re a hoot. The shenanigans and machinations within faction-ridden WA Labor are all of their own doing.
Peg:
You don’t do your cause much good by continually posting articles critical of Labor; that is, if you don’t want to be seen as a Tory sympathiser.
Labor has always been “faction-ridded (sic)”………….It is the nature of Labor politics. The difference, of course, is that Labor does it mostly in the open. Even the Liberals tend to open up on differences. Meanwhile, the Greens hold all their tough gigs in secrecy the KGB would have been proud of …………..
MD
I work towards not supporting the political duopoly at the federal and state government levels.
No doubt if the ALP conference was going well, Laborites would be regaling us with how great Labor is.
Guytaur
Next year’s US Presidential election wont be centred on climate change. It will be all about the economy and trade.
Peg
Surely the Greens don’t expect endorsement from other parties, that isn’t how campaigns are run and won anywhere. For the Greens to appeal to more than 10% they actually need to have polices that go beyond more spending on pet social topics or a narrow list of issues that appeal to one demographic and instead they need to appeal across different demographics.
These days my only contact with Murdoch media is the occasional glance at page one headlines at sales points. Today’s Oz headline was “PM Eyes Post Brexit Trade Deal”.
Assuming a no deal brexit, Britain will be in a very weak bargaining position on any trade deal. The Democrat controlled HoR is not in favour of a US/UK deal and there are no indications that other countries want a deal either.
Enter Morrison – is he willing to sign a deal with Johnson just to support his ideological soulmate and in the process sell out Australian interests?
As a former member of the WA ALP and CFMEU delegate to State Conference, this is very heartening. The WA left faction run by United Voice is an insider cartel which speaks left but acts right, aside from identity left issues. Exhibit A is it’s support for Mark McGowan who is as right wing as ALP Premiers come.
What would the piss in the pot know about cabals and factions?
Tricot
Didn’t see that coming lol.
WA Labor tried to keep a lid on it by twisting arms behind closed doors.
A spectacular fail it seems as adversaries failed to play their part in the stage managed public theatre that is state Labor conferences.
citizen
First cab off the rank would have to be the EU: six-eight times the economic size of rump England.
No trade rules could be agreed with England that could be inconsistent with trade rules with the EU.
The Dems are not going to go with agreeing a trade agreement that destroys the Irish.
The problem with the right wing Coalition is that they do not actually want to be seen negotiating with the EU when there is a reactionary running England.
HinT
” speaks left but acts right,”
As does Albanese and Fed Labor. Pivoting to the right as we speak.
Still waiting for Peg to explain why the Greens have now been thrashed in every state and federal election for the past thirty years.
Could it be that the Greens prance what they preach?
Mexican
A lot of the people on here need comprehension lessons.
The Democrats are campaigning for the environment including the most conservative Joe Biden.
I never said it was the centrepiece of their campaign
Guytaur
I didn’t say you did but my point was that the Democrats will need to have an economic and trade policy because that is where this president is potentially at risk. The rust belt states, the mid-west and south west might swing on the trade war but they wont swing on climate change.