Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Coalition finally records an opinion poll lead, as Newspoll breaks the post-election ice.

The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.

No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 7 of 19
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  2. frednk

    Both major parties – enablers of poker machines that wreak economic and social damage on the most vulnerable communities.

  4. How painful it is for the likes of confessions and frednk to face up to germane facts re the gambling industry. Going the ad hominem route is all they have. Sad.

  5. Mexicanbeemer @ #288 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 2:26 pm

    lizzie says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 4:20 pm

    I cannot see why Labor can’t attack the problems at Crown.
    ———————
    They could in terms of money laundering and the visas but crown is as much an issue for the state government.

    There are also the matters concerning immigration as it appears Crown has been getting fast tracked clearances to bring in dodgy high rollers.

  6. All I have ever asked since posting on PB is that those who troll me do so with wit, creativity and panache. Sadly these qualities are usually lacking.

    Please try harder.

  8. I doubt you’d have missed me Rex but I admit I am still SO disillusioned as to the decisions of the Australia voter (most specifically the Qlders). I am taking a hiatus from anything political … and am working hard on my research so I don’t want to be distracted.

    I am checking in to look every now and then though. I just can’t muster the wherewithal to argue about anything.

  9. Pegasus says:

    frednk

    Both major parties – enablers of poker machines that wreak economic and social damage on the most vulnerable communities.

    Over in Sandgropia however it has been pretty much a unity ticket between the two to not let the pokie blight roam free. Restricted to just the casino.

  11. A howler from Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey email.

    The revelations caused outcry from the opposition benches, with Greens Senator Penny Wong labelling Taylor “corrupt”, an accusation she later withdrew.

    😆

  13. Jen

    We simply need stronger opposition in parliament and social activism to this destructive and compromised Govt and their boosters.

  14. Noting the seriousness of our national gambling epidemics, it is excellent that Peg and Rex are attacking the Liberals and the Nationals as well as Labor and the Greens for their various policy and practice shortcomings with respect to gambling.

    Because, let’s face it, the only cleanskin is Wilkie.

    And the only Party to probably fail to win government as a direct consequence of the impact of the gambling interest on a state election was Labor in Tasmania.

    If you go through ALL Pegs and Rexs posts on the topic you will see that they have mentioned by name half a dozen Coalition ministers and prime ministers and have made specific reference to Coalition gambling policy shortcomings.

    Wondeful stuff which just goes to show that the Greens realize that to improve outcomes in Australia they MUST get rid of Morrison as their first priority.

    This is why Rex and Peg are such wonderful contributors to Poll Bludger!

  15. Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    All I have ever asked since posting on PB is that those who troll me do so with wit, creativity and panache. Sadly these qualities are usually lacking.

    Please try harder.

    Why should others do so, when you demonstrate none of them in your cut and pastings?

  16. It is human nature to gamble.

    I hate to say it but if it wasn’t poker machines, it’d be something else.

    It has ever been thus.

  17. C@tmomma @ #285 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 4:21 pm

    Doesn’t that guy who owns MONA in Tasmania and donates generously to The Greens, make a lot of money out of gambling? 🙂

    I see Pegasus has ignored the ethical point I made, with the sort of wit, panache and style she is renowned for…running away from difficult issues for The Greens. 😆

  20. Mean and tricky.

    The correct number of people who have ceased receiving Newstart within 12 months was one third, according to Department of Social Services’ ongoing data, not two thirds as government ministers claimed. The government’s claim is only true when referring to the number of people who started and exited Newstart in the 2017 calendar year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/jul/29/barnaby-joyce-struggling-on-backbenchers-salary-politics-live

  22. Barney in Makassar @ #315 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 5:05 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    All I have ever asked since posting on PB is that those who troll me do so with wit, creativity and panache. Sadly these qualities are usually lacking.

    Please try harder.

    Why should others do so, when you demonstrate none of them in your cut and pastings?

    Exackerley. Snarl, snark and smarm are her specialties.

  25. mh
    Good point. The exciting thing is that Greens like Peg and Rex are finally onboard and are on the alert for Coalition lies.
    They then ruthlessly and relentlessly attack the Coalition for, in this case, bastardizing Newstart recipients.
    This shows that Rex and Peg have, as first priority, the long term unemployed who are being pilloried by government ministers and bastardized by robocop.
    It is truly heartening that we are all on the same page in the need to attack the crooks and liars who are wrecking the joint.

  27. In Hong Kong racing is the only legal form of gambling …. the tax revenue it draws pays for their health system.

  29. To whomever it was who asked whether this poll can be trusted, William has an article in today’s Crikey on the matter. He concludes:

    However, the latest poll comes with no insights as to what might have been done to correct for it, and how the methods that today credit the Coalition with a 53-47 lead might differ from those that had it trailing 51.5-48.5 on the eve of an election whose result was exactly the reverse.

    In the past, YouGov Galaxy has felt able to justify the opaqueness of its methods on the grounds that its “track record speaks for itself”.

    That justification will be finding far fewer takers today than it did before the great shock of May 18.

  30. lizzie says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 4:20 pm
    “I cannot see why Labor can’t attack the problems at Crown.”

    Mark Arbib and Stephen Conroy.

  31. Boerwar says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:14 pm

    BiM
    Gib

    I did say one of the last.

    Also a few isolated islands here and there, but apart from that not much away from Britain.

  32. RD

    Are your ears burning? They just can’t stop talking about us. If I wasn’t so calm and centred, it would go to my head lol.

  34. ‘Barney in Makassar says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:21 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:14 pm

    BiM
    Gib

    I did say one of the last.’

    You did. Guernsey, Jersey and Man had better watch themselves.

  38. Boerwar,

    I remember seeing a reference to the Diego Garcia group and talk of it being released to the Seychelles(?).

    The Tanks wouldn’t be too happy with that! 😆

  42. Barney:

    William also said that if Essential and the others also come out with similar results to Newspoll it will simply mean suspicions about their herding to Newspoll will persist. In many ways I suppose it was better to be the first to release voting intention poll results, as the second and third pollsters to do so are likely to find themselves between a rock and a hard place.

  43. ABC The Drum @ABCthedrum
    ·
    37m
    Is Barnaby Joyce positioning himself for a comeback as a man of the people? Tonight on #TheDrum Barnaby Joyce says he has more empathy for people on Newstart as he struggles on a $211K salary, Crown’s alleged links to organised crime, the ‘grassgate’ scandal and Newspoll returns

    Gawd, what a treat. Barnaby’s struggles against poverty.

  44. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:27 pm

    The question was why the ALP didn’t ask questions about Crown.

  45. It’s not so much the polls that are in question, it’s the CPG and what they base their narratives on now which brings the most intrigue.

  46. ‘Barney in Makassar says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    Boerwar,

    I remember seeing a reference to the Diego Garcia group and talk of it being released to the Seychelles(?).

    The Tanks wouldn’t be too happy with that! ‘

    Won’t happen while MH 370 remains parked in a secret hanger there. (See BB’s numerous posts on the matter.)

  47. Confessions says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:32 pm

    Barney:

    William also said that if Essential and the others also come out with similar results to Newspoll it will simply mean suspicions about their herding to Newspoll will persist. In many ways I suppose it was better to be the first to release voting intention poll results, as the second and third pollsters to do so are likely to find themselves between a rock and a hard place.

    The question seems to be, have they found the voters they were missing or have they just adjusted their equations to be in line with election result?

    If it’s the first then great, but if it’s the second they won’t pick up any movement in their missing demographics.

  48. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:32 pm

    The coal and gambling industries certainly have our parliament in their pockets.’

    Excellent point, IMO. But I would add that the Coalition has our parliament in their pockets as well.

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