Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Coalition finally records an opinion poll lead, as Newspoll breaks the post-election ice.

The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.

No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 8 of 19
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  1. There’s plenty of time to ask about Crown Casino while they’ve got Taylor on the ropes. And while Dutton’s not present.

  4. Barney:

    I wouldn’t have thought it was a case of ‘missing voters’, more about methodology and/or concern about results straying too far from the ‘gold standard’ of Newspoll.

  5. Fess

    Such a shame that Q&A feels the need to ‘balance’ the others with McGuinness and Abetz. They’ll dominate unless Fran is very bossy.

  7. Boerwar says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:38 pm

    …

    Won’t happen while MH 370 remains parked in a secret hanger there. (See BB’s numerous posts on the matter.)

    Nah, they cut it up and threw the bits in the water, didn’t they¿ 😆

  10. “Wow! Is there no issue that you Greens won’t claim credit for? Then stuff up?

    For your information, good Labor people have been campaigning for Abortion Law Reform since before The Greens even existed! And I merely made the comment about Mehreen Faruqi because so many people were blowing smoke about her leadership qualities last week. Well, here’s an example of her taking the leading role in something and not doing a very good job of it.

    And I didn’t see you acknowledging the hard work Penny Sharpe, Alex Greenwich, and Ryan Park did on the Bill ‘to get to this point’. Noooo. So, back at you.

    Honestly, you Greens are like Evangelical Christians. History only seems to have begun when Bob Brown, your messiah, created your party.

    Have you ever thought that that might be a reason people have a go at you? The quasi Evangelical nature of your posts? So, maybe if you stopped claiming credit for every Progressive political victory, people might not be so antagonistic.

    Like Same Sex Marriage. Again, another issue that has been fought for in the party forums, long before The Greens existed.

    In fact, I would say that, if it wasn’t for the courageous proclamation by Bill Shorten that he would enact SSM in the first 100 days of a Labor government, then the Coalition wouldn’t have been spooked, and other Coalition MPs wouldn’t have found their voices and forced the issue of the Plebiscite in their party room. Because the Coalition know they can just keep ignoring The Greens. As valuable as their contribution to the debate was.”

    There goes the Cat calling the Fox hairy again lol. You are one of the most one-eyed, rusted-on, “evangelical”, fanatically one-sided posters on this website.

    Labor can start claiming credit for some of these things when they stop blocking them for years until it becomes politically convenient for them to adopt the Greens’ position. Labor was a roadblock on the path to marriage equality for a very long time. The same is true for many issues. I always find it so amusing when members of the Labor Right claim credit for Greens’ policies after making their party oppose them for so many years. You can’t repeatedly vote against things, like Labor did with marriage equality, then turn around and claim credit for it later.

    Shorten promising to enact SSM was hardly “courageous” in this day and age lol. “Long overdue” or “better late than never” are far better ways to describe it. Besides, Rudd made the very same promise in 2013. Shorten was just following on. Of course, Rudd or Gillard could’ve joined with the Greens at any time during the 07-13 period and enacted marriage equality then and there. Multiple bills to enable it were put to the parliament while Labor was in government. See for yourself at the following link: https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/Quick_Guides/SSMarriageBills

  13. Labor and the Greens are on the same page with respect to abortion law reform. The trogs in this policy issue are the various fundies and their reps in various Oz governments.
    Which is why it is wonderful that Labor and the Greens are combining to get abortion law reform done.
    Well done, everyone!

  15. The PB wowser brigade is firing on all cylinders tonight.

    I doubt very much that people want gambling banned.

    They especially don’t need the pure and virtuous telling them how to live their lives and how to spend their money.

  16. Confessions says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:43 pm

    Barney:

    I wouldn’t have thought it was a case of ‘missing voters’, more about methodology and/or concern about results straying too far from the ‘gold standard’ of Newspoll.

    That may be the case for other pollsters, but why did NewsPoll stray so far from the result?

    What wasn’t the polling picking up?

    The adjustment they did make favoured the Government and yet they were still wide of the mark come the election.

  17. Firefox,
    For one, I’m not a member of the Labor Right, so please stop stating as fact that which is false. I’m also not even a delegate to National Conference where these things are decided. So I’ve never been able to influence a thing.

    Secondly, you seem to be making a virtue out of the fact that The Greens are a much smaller party, of Left Wing Intellectuals, so hip hip hooray! they were all on the SSM bandwagon before Labor.
    *golfclap*

    Please accept a thousand pardons that Labor contained, for a very long time, members and delegates who were socially conservative Working Class people and/or Catholic, to whom abortion was against their firmly-held beliefs. However, that does not equate to Labor not having fought for Free, Safe and Legal Abortion for Women decades before The Greens were a twinkle in Bob Brown’s eye. I guess these are the perils of having a much larger party than The Greens. But now we have that, SSM and Euthanasia. And they actually happen, rather than simply being Right On! causes we champion tirelessly until we (never) get them, because we are a party of government and The Greens aren’t. 🙂

    Btw, are you sure you’re in IT? You don’t seem to know how to do blockquote or even italics. 😯

  20. C@t

    Yes, I fear Adam is too polite. He’s a bit of a hidden talent. Has been asked to go into politics, I think, but sensibly refused.

  21. Barney:

    The head of YouGov/Galaxy has suggested that a ‘shy tory effect’ may have been to blame for Newspoll’s exaggerated support for Labor, for whatever that is worth.

  24. Mungo Maccallum’s latest:

    Once again, the cultural warriors of the right are caught in a conflict of loathing. They would love to see Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne embarrassed and humiliated – they were supporters of the arch fiend Turnbull, renegades from the Miraculous Morrison and his band of angels. They deserve to be cast into the nethermost pit, along with the other unbelievers and blasphemers.

    But they hate the idea that delivering them to their just desserts would be a small victory to the even more abhorrent leftists, the Greens and the Labor Party that have forced a senate inquiry into their hugely lucrative new jobs.

    And besides, there is a principle involved: the sacred goal of what Morrison blesses as aspiration, and what more normal people call naked greed. It is the right, the duty, of Australians to collar as much loot as possible, regardless of the ethics – isn’t ethics just a small county in England?

    And from that point of view, Bishop and Pyne are simply obeying their party’s call, fighting their personal class war for their ordained privilege, the politics of avarice. It can hardly be called a moral dilemma, because morality has nothing to do with it. But it is a bit of a problem, nonetheless.

    http://johnmenadue.com/mungo-maccallum-cultural-warriors-caught-in-conflict-of-loathing/

  27. the sacred goal of what Morrison blesses as aspiration, and what more normal people call naked greed. It is the right, the duty, of Australians to collar as much loot as possible, regardless of the ethics

    That view has been held by every Liberal PM in my lifetime, not just Scotty. It’s in their DNA.

  28. Since its election loss, Labor under Albanese has pivoted towards wooing the aspirationals who have deserted Labor for the Coalition and Hanson.

    And besides, there is a principle involved: the sacred goal of what Morrison blesses as aspiration

    Albanese:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/30/lets-talk-about-aspiration-anthony-albanese-says-labor-must-learn-from-mistakes

    Recasting the party’s approach to middle Australia after the party suffered swings against it in outer suburban and regional seats, particularly in Queensland, Albanese said the party needed to “build relationships” and talk about aspiration.

    “I speak about the need to talk about aspiration and to appeal to people who want to get on in life and want a better life for themselves,” Albanese said.
    :::
    He also indicated that Labor under his leadership would be less confrontational with the business sector than under Shorten, flagging a cooperative approach between business and unions and emphasising his connections with corporate Australia.

  29. ‘Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 6:23 pm

    Since its election loss, Labor under Albanese has pivoted towards wooing the aspirationals who have deserted Labor for the Coalition and Hanson.’

    Good point, Peg.
    If the Left ever wants to run Australia again it is going to have to bring the aspirationals on board instead of pissing them all off.

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 5:42 pm

    Abetz and Kitching… good grief !
    ______________________
    They’d probably get on great. Only disagree on penalty rates!

  32. Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 6:23 pm

    Albo knows that he won’t get any paid Directorships after he’s finished as Leader of the Opposition unless he backs off the class war envy stuff. Shorten could do it because he is already tight with the Corporates.

  33. Angus Taylor isn’t looking too good in the Drum conversation. Not handling his portfolios as well as expected.

  36. ‘Pegasus says:
    Monday, July 29, 2019 at 6:32 pm

    b

    The Coalition and Labor are now explicitly competing for the same voter subset. Good luck with that.’

    Peg it may take more than luck, I imagine.

    To win government Labor will have to pick up disaffected Greens, Liberal and Nationals voters.

    If it does not, it will not form government.

  42. I’ll tell you what shits me.
    People on fucking TV talking about Barnaby fucking Joyce as though he’s a permanent fucking feature in the Australian political firmament and we have to move heaven and fucking earth to accommodate his fucking dumbarse pronouncements.
    Fuck.

  43. From news.com.

    I might ask for some for Father’s Day:

    [Ligandrol — or LGD 4033 — is a black market muscle-builder that’s hailed by gym junkies as a way to improve your appearance without any of the nasty side effects experienced with steroid use. Basically, get big guns without shrinking your you-know-what]

  46. What can one say about people like Morrison and Joyce? It’s interesting that the RW Fin Review has chosen to weave the two stories together in one article.

    I can only post the bit that is not paywalled but that’s enough to tell the story.

    PM accuses Labor of ‘unfunded empathy’ on Newstart

    Andrew Tillett
    Political Correspondent
    Jul 29, 2019 — 5.27pm

    Scott Morrison has branded calls to raise the dole as “unfunded empathy” after Barnaby Joyce lamented how tough he was doing it despite collecting a backbencher’s salary of $211,000 a year.

    As government MPs distanced themselves from Mr Joyce’s comments, Mr Morrison said while the level of the Newstart allowance was “modest”, 99 per cent of unemployed people received other taxpayer-funded benefits to help them with living costs.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-accuses-labor-of-unfunded-empathy-on-newstart-20190729-p52bue

  47. Peg:

    [‘Stand with us against poker machines designed to addict’]

    I’m on all four with you on this one – the ruination of families, the utter despair they cause. You’re better off taking illicit drugs – at least you know what in for, usually.

  49. Zoidlord:

    [‘A food festival shooting…… in USA, a new low.’]

    No matter the type of festival… I guess we’re lucky here – the one thing Howard should be proud of.

  50. Questions asked in paliament re Crown

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/parliament-s-lack-of-scrutiny-on-crown-suggests-lobbying-pays-dividends-20190729-p52bwm.html

    “The scandals at Australia’s biggest casino provided plenty of material for questions in Parliament on Monday about the supervision of the company by consular staff, border officials and police.

    Only two questions came.

    Federal Parliament approached the Crown Resorts revelations so carefully it seemed at first as if the company had no questions to answer.

    But then Greens MP Adam Bandt asked Prime Minister Scott Morrison about the connections between the casino and the Commonwealth. His colleague Larissa Waters asked a question in the Senate.
    :::
    The gentle treatment of Crown in Parliament on Monday suggests the company’s lobbying has paid dividends. The company has a pattern of recruiting from the political class to keep things sweet with Canberra.
    :::
    Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie says this is a systemic and cultural problem – a “very unhealthy nexus” between the company and the political establishment.

    The reluctance to ask about Crown on Monday seemed like proof of Wilkie’s claim. How long will this last? The concerns about Crown extend to immigration, border protection, money laundering and policing.

    Two questions will not be enough.”

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