The tribes of Israel

The latest Essential Research poll turns up a mixed bag of views on the Israel Folau controversy. Also featured: prospects for an indigenous recognition referendum and yet more Section 44 eruptions.

The latest of Essential Research’s fortnightly polls, which continue to limit themselves to issue questions in the wake of the great pollster failure, focuses mostly on the Israel Folau controversy. Respondents registered high levels of recognition of the matter, with 22% saying they had been following it closely, 46% that they had “read or seen some news”, and another 17% saying they were at least “aware”.

Probing further, the poll records very strong support for what seem at first blush to be some rather illiberal propositions, including 64% agreement with the notion that people “should not be allowed to argue religious freedom to abuse others”. However, question wording would seem to be very important here, as other questions find an even split on whether Folau “has the right to voice his religious views, regardless of the hurt it could cause others” (34% agree, 36% disagree), and whether there should be “stronger laws to protect people who express their religious views in public” (38% agree, 38% disagree). Furthermore, 58% agreed that “employers should not have the right to dictate what their employees say outside work”, which would seem to encompass the Folau situation.

Respondents were also asked who would benefit and suffer from the federal government’s policies over the next three years, which, typically for a Coalition government, found large companies and corporations expected to do best (54% good, 11% bad). Other results were fairly evenly balanced, the most negative findings relating to the environment (26% good, 33% bad) and, funnily enough, “older Australians” (26% good, 38% bad). The economy came in at 33% good and 29% bad, and “Australia in general” at 36% good and 27% bad. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1099.

Also of note:

• A referendum on indigenous recognition may be held before the next election, after Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt’s announcement on Wednesday that he would pursue a consensus option for a proposal to go before voters “during the current parliamentary term”. It is clear the government would not be willing to countenance anything that went further than recognition, contrary to the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s call for a “First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” – a notion derided as a “third chamber of parliament” by critics, including Scott Morrison.

• A paper in the University of Western Australia Law Review keeps the Section 44 pot astir by suggesting 26 current members of federal parliament may fall foul by maintaining a “right of abode” in the United Kingdom – a status allowing “practically the same rights” as citizenship even where citizenship has been formally renounced. The status has only been available to British citizens since 1983, but is maintained by citizens of Commonwealth countries who held it before that time, which they could do through marriage or descent. This could potentially be interpreted as among “the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, as per the disqualifying clause in Section 44. Anyone concerned by this has until the end of the month to challenge an election result within the 40 day period that began with the return of the writs on June 21. Action beyond that point would require referral by the House of Representatives or the Senate, as appropriate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “The tribes of Israel”

  1. Democracy Busters R Us

    Indigenous Colonial Suppression Section

    Chapter: Fake Consultation.

    Announce Consultation on Uluru Call From the Heart. Wait for Albanese to commit. Notice that the usual Right Wing Hate Merchants do not want to consult with anyone. Chief Happy Clapper drops the word to journo serfs in ‘The Australian’ wtte, the consultation will not cover Voice and will not cover Treaty.

  2. The shonky salesman PM will lose a lot of bark if he can’t deliver a referendum on Indigenous constitutional recognition.
    Lib lite and the Greens should go hard on this.

  3. Back when I lived in the US, I attended a speech (and Q&A) by Joe Biden. He came across as knowledgeable, but uninspiring.
    I’m in two minds. I want someone who can beat Trump, and (on paper) Biden ticks most of the boxes. But I wouldn’t regard him as a great candidate.
    Warren and Sanders are unelectable (Warren probably, Sanders definitely). Among the horde of candidates on offer, Harris may be the best of a fairly ordinary bunch.

  4. If Wyatt wants to be regarded for his integrity, he should now resign.

    If he doesn’t, he is little better than a tunnel rat scrabbling for miserable scraps from the whitefellas’ table.

  5. S44 – Dual citizenship list:

    https://7news.com.au/politics/federal-politics/is-australia-headed-for-another-citizenship-saga-c-208152

    Labor (14)
    Bill Shorten (Vic), Chris Bowen (NSW), Mark Butler (SA), Nick Champion (SA), Lisa Chesters (Vic), Pat Conroy (NSW), Alexander Gallacher (SA), Katy Gallagher (ACT), Andrew Giles (Vic), Madeleine King (WA), Susan Lines (WA), Brian Mitchell (Tas), Louise Pratt (WA) and Glenn Sterle (WA).

    Liberal (5)
    John Alexander (NSW), Angie Bell (Qld), Ben Morton (WA), Dean Smith (WA) and Alan Tudge (Vic).

    National (3)
    George Christensen (Qld), Patrick Conaghan (NSW) and Perin Davey (NSW).

    Greens (2)
    Adam Bandt (Vic) and Rachel Siewart (WA).

    Other (2)
    One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts (Qld) and independent Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie.

    For any of the above to be ruled ineligible, they would have to be challenged in the parliament and referred to the High Court.

    With 14 under a cloud, it’s safe to assume Labor will let sleeping dogs lie.

    And while a challenge could be to the coalition’s advantage, the Liberals and Nationals might feel the brunt of a backlash if it forces voters back to the polls for another slew of by-elections.

  6. “The shonky salesman PM will lose a lot of bark if he can’t deliver a referendum on Indigenous constitutional recognition. ”

    I very much doubt that, Rex. This is just window dressing. Poor Ken Wyatt means well, but he’s been wheeled out to defuse the issue of indigenous recognition – to get it OFF the government’s agenda. This will go nowhere in the next 3 years, which is exactly what ScoMo &Co want.

  7. Boerwar @ #54 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 9:50 am

    If Wyatt wants to be regarded for his integrity, he should now resign.

    If he doesn’t, he is little better than a tunnel rat scrabbling for miserable scraps from the whitefellas’ table.

    Wyatts integrity will be measured by the level of fight he has for the Indigenous voice.

    To resign now would be weak.

  8. lizzie says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 8:33 am

    Shellbell

    It seems to provide an object lesson on why you should keep seatbelts fastened all the time. Although the poor attendants had no choice.

    I blame C@t! 🙂

  9. Kakuru @ #56 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 9:55 am

    “The shonky salesman PM will lose a lot of bark if he can’t deliver a referendum on Indigenous constitutional recognition. ”

    I very much doubt that, Rex. This is just window dressing. Poor Ken Wyatt means well, but he’s been wheeled out to defuse the issue of indigenous recognition – to get it OFF the government’s agenda. This will go nowhere in the next 3 years, which is exactly what ScoMo &Co want.

    Time will tell.

    I would hope Lib lite will fight for the voice. I know the Greens will.

  10. Rex Douglas says:

    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 9:49 am
    The shonky salesman PM will lose a lot of bark if he can’t deliver a referendum on Indigenous constitutional recognition

    More like the other way around, delivering one would really piss off a section of his RWNJ ‘base’. Those that care enough about the issue that it is a vote changer (sfa) would not be voting for him any way.

  11. Rex

    I see you are sticking up for the Coalition’s lapdog.
    Two thirds of the Call is off the table and that is before ‘consultations’ begin.
    The classic culture war wedge coming on.

    Liberals: grudgingly accept some piss weak wording in the Preamble and NOT in the body of the Constitution. In other words, nothing real; like the Apology without Restitution. Endless opportunities for castigating Labor for being out of touch and against the real interests of Indigenous people.

    The Greens: Treaty, Third Chamber, Truth Commission. These will never get up. In other words, nothing real but endless opportunities for virtue signalling and castigating Labor.

    Labor: Something is better than nothing but with both Liberals and Greens attacking LABOR for ensuring that the Consultations and/or the Referendum fails.

    In other words, the Liberals, Nationals and Greens scabs once again a bunch of white political maggots feeding on the carcase of the Indigenous Nation.

  12. Also to be clear I like Kristina Keneally taking Dutton on.

    I hope this is a Labor reset and human rights are going to be the feature to fight back against the TuberFuher

  13. Well, that did not take long. A reasonable (non) touted policy dead in the water a week after the first sitting of Parliament. SM may be guided by his deity but it is the right-wing of his party who really have him in their palm. First sniff of a tough issue (that he cannot hide behind the military) and shuts up shop. Leader, what leader?

  14. Barney in Makassar @ #60 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:03 am

    lizzie says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 8:33 am

    Shellbell

    It seems to provide an object lesson on why you should keep seatbelts fastened all the time. Although the poor attendants had no choice.

    I blame C@t! 🙂

    Isn’t that what people always do, kick the cat…when they know they’re wrong? 😀

  15. Having had a mosey around this website – https://www.gov.uk/right-of-abode

    — even if you’re entitled to it, you have to apply for it (just as you do for citizenship). You don’t have the right to abode unless you’ve applied for it, though you might be eligible.

    If the HC ruled that anyone who has a right to citizenship in another country IF they apply for it, is ineligible, than there’d be very few people left to stand for Parliament. The same with the ‘right of abode’ – the nature of things means that large slabs of the Australian population have ‘the right of abode’ but haven’t activated it.

  16. Tricot @ #65 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:09 am

    Well, that did not take long. A reasonable (non) touted policy dead in the water a week after the first sitting of Parliament. SM may be guided by his deity but it is the right-wing of his party who really have him in their palm. First sniff of a tough issue (that he cannot hide behind the military) and shuts up shop. Leader, what leader?

    So, Dutton became PM after all?

  17. Not that the electorate will care, as most are looking out for their 1080 fix. As the press are just waking up to it, many are in for a sore disappointment when the adjustment to their taxation return will buy between one and 5 extra coffees a week. Still, a promise made and a promise kept I suppose.

  18. Boerwar @ #63 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:08 am

    Rex

    I see you are sticking up for the Coalition’s lapdog.
    Two thirds of the Call is off the table and that is before ‘consultations’ begin.
    The classic culture war wedge coming on.

    Liberals: grudgingly accept some piss weak wording in the Preamble and NOT in the body of the Constitution. In other words, nothing real; like the Apology without Restitution. Endless opportunities for castigating Labor for being out of touch and against the real interests of Indigenous people.

    The Greens: Treaty, Third Chamber, Truth Commission. These will never get up. In other words, nothing real but endless opportunities for virtue signalling and castigating Labor.

    Labor: Something is better than nothing but with both Liberals and Greens attacking LABOR for ensuring that the Consultations and/or the Referendum fails.

    In other words, the Liberals, Nationals and Greens scabs once again a bunch of white political maggots feeding on the carcase of the Indigenous Nation.

    Lib lite should pick a side to fully support then instead of trying to be everything to everyone and wedging themselves in classic Labor style.

  19. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 10:10 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #60 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:03 am

    lizzie says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 8:33 am

    Shellbell

    It seems to provide an object lesson on why you should keep seatbelts fastened all the time. Although the poor attendants had no choice.

    I blame C@t!

    Isn’t that what people always do, kick the cat…when they know they’re wrong?

    But in this case I know I’m right.

    The plane encountered Clear Air Turbulence, or CAT. 😆

  20. Boerwar

    I don’t think that there should be any reference to any race in the body of the Constitution. Rightly or wrongly I feel it should be a [;ace that does not have references to specific races.creeds or any other flavor of human. It is for ALL.

  21. poroti @ #74 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:14 am

    Boerwar

    I don’t think that there should be any reference to any race in the body of the Constitution. Rightly or wrongly I feel it should be a [;ace that does not have references to specific races.creeds or any other flavor of human. It is for ALL.

    I respectfully disagree.

    Our Indigenous culture of thousands of years should have a constitutional voice.

  22. Democracy Busters R Us

    Greens Party Collaboration Section

    Chapter: Folau unicorn operation.
    Chapter: Ignore shonky consultations on Uluru Call from the Heart. Blame Labor.
    Chapter: Blame Labor for Dutton’s role in suppressing the Fourth Estate.
    Chapter: Ignore 300,000 victims of insurance scams.
    Chapter: Adani. Blame Labor. Greens Party silence on Price.
    Chapter: Tax cuts. Blame Labor. Greens Party role silence on Morrison, Corman and Frydenberg’s massaging of the truth.
    Chapter: Dying Reef. Blame Labor. Greens Party Silence on the Liberals and the Nationals role.
    Chapter: Industrial deaths. Greens Party Silence on Liberal cuts to OH&S regulations.
    Chapter: MDBA to be shifted to Griffith. Greens Party Silence.
    Chapter: Degazetting the Murray Valley National Park by the Liberals and Nationals. Greens Party Silence.

    And so it goes.

  23. We need Constitutional Reform. Republic or not we need the Oversight Keneally talks about.

    So besides removing race from the constitution we also need to insert some basic protections. Yes the US is a good example. Counter arguments need to be made about the 2nd Amendment.

    The difference between here and the US Trump can’t do what Dutton is doing. Even as bad a condition the US is in.

    Edit: of course this is an excellent argument to create a Republic and beats the hell out of changing the label of our Head of State

  24. ‘poroti says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 10:14 am

    Boerwar

    I don’t think that there should be any reference to any race in the body of the Constitution. Rightly or wrongly I feel it should be a [;ace that does not have references to specific races.creeds or any other flavor of human. It is for ALL.’

    Do you support the existence of the Waitangi Treaty and/or special representation right of Maori in the New Zealand Parliament?

  25. BW

    Treaty Now. Another reason we need a Republic. Writing a new age for our nation. Our real Independence Day cutting the ties the UK left that entrenches racism.

  26. …also, it’s pretty clear that if you have a right to citizenship and don’t apply for it, you’re apples. (Canavan had a right to citizenship, he hadn’t activated it).

    It’s renouncing citizenship which has been conferred on you automatically which caused the problems.

    So if you have a right of abode but haven’t applied for it, not a problem.

    In both cases – automatic citizenship rights and rights of abode – these are things you really can’t renounce on a permanent basis, because you have them by right of birth (so the only way you can get rid of the right is to go back in time and kill your grandparents, or something…).

    I have a right to Lithuanian citizenship. I can’t renounce that right, because it comes to me through my father, and I can’t change either who my father is or where he was born. I can simply not apply for Lithuanian citizenship (not activate the right) or, if it’s automatic, renounce it. But I can’t do anything to permanently remove my right to it (if I’ve renounced it, I can always reapply).

  27. Barney in Makassar @ #73 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:14 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 10:10 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #60 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:03 am

    lizzie says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 8:33 am

    Shellbell

    It seems to provide an object lesson on why you should keep seatbelts fastened all the time. Although the poor attendants had no choice.

    I blame C@t!

    Isn’t that what people always do, kick the cat…when they know they’re wrong?

    But in this case I know I’m right.

    The plane encountered Clear Air Turbulence, or CAT. 😆

  28. Tricot @ #70 Friday, July 12th, 2019 – 10:13 am

    Not that the electorate will care, as most are looking out for their 1080 fix. As the press are just waking up to it, many are in for a sore disappointment when the adjustment to their taxation return will buy between one and 5 extra coffees a week. Still, a promise made and a promise kept I suppose.

    As I said on day 1

  29. BW

    At the moment you are an authoritarian supporter.

    You either support human rights or you don’t. That means calling the camps concentration camps. That means calling out the falsity of delays in the immigration system.

    That also means fighting for the right to privacy

    That means calling out the attacks on our freedom of association. Attacks we see Dutton using on journalists and whistle blowers.

  30. Do you support the existence of the Waitangi Treaty and/or special representation right of Maori in the New Zealand Parliament?

    I remember asking a kiwi friend in Otago that question. I wish I hadnt.

  31. Boerwar

    A treaty is a very different beast to a Constitution. NZ gets by with an uncodified constitution so that makes it a bit easier.

  32. Around a quarter of Australian WW2 military deaths consisted of Japanese POWs. Many of these deaths were in mass murders as in the Sandakan Death March and numerous smaller massacres.

    Most deaths were, at best, manslaughter by way of callous starvation, overwork and non provision of housing and basic health services.

    The single historical monument that best represents this quarter of Australia’s World War Two military casualties is locomotive C5631 which has pride of place in the Yasukuni Shrine which is visited by Japanese Government Ministers.

  33. ‘poroti says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 10:31 am

    Boerwar

    A treaty is a very different beast to a Constitution. NZ gets by with an uncodified constitution so that makes it a bit easier.’

    Do you support a Treaty here?

  34. BW

    A reminder I was being very clear praising Keneally for her role as Shadow Immigration Minister. She a Labor not Green politician has been effective in fighting back so far.

  35. BW

    I see you are projecting again.

    News for you. Elisabeth Warren has pledged to end private run prisons and detention centres. She is a Democrat not a Green.

    Issues count not labels

  36. Tricot

    when the adjustment to their taxation return will buy between one and 5 extra coffees a week.

    Back in the days of Howard it was a head scratcher for me at the apparent ‘HURRAH for Howard’when he promised tax cuts that meant, for a majority about $5-$8 a week. Libs learnt that ‘Strayan voters can be purchased for SFA.

  37. Boerwar and Rex

    I generally agree with both of you about Ken Wyatt. The leaks today suggest that he is pissing into the wind.

    Mind you, I think he is only where he is because he is suitably malleable and a First Nationer.

    Remember a few weeks back when he was announced as minister. “ How great to have an Indigenous person in this role” was all over the media and accepted by gullibles. Great marketing by the PM ……. cynical but smart. But Morrison’s second criteria was to put someone in charge who would do no harm. Do no harm to the hard core conservos’ policies and power in the party. Wyatt ticks both boxes.

    So we have Dutton today. First Nationers (cf women) will be best served by having more First Nationers (cf women) elected to the parliament. Double speak for do nothing.

    Whether Wyatt should resign today, or some time down the track when the nation gets onto this con is debatable and pretty moot. He ain’t the resigning type. Anyone who listened to his speech and answers at the NPC will have observed his ability to massage words and ideas.

  38. Boerwar

    If one were to be signed then no problem.Not that I can see that happening as long as the fecking 2GB’s, Daily Telegraphs, Sky After Dark and Murdochracy still exist . The Malignant Bunch 🙁

  39. THE biggest lesson out of the election result for Lib lite is to stop trying to be everything to everyone. It only creates a self-wedge.

  40. Psyclaw says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 10:38 am

    Boerwar and Rex

    I generally agree with both of you about Ken Wyatt. The leaks today suggest that he is pissing into the wind.

    He’s only “pissing into the wind” because the position of the Government Party room is uncertain.

    Until that is decided, how can he possibly negotiate with Labor?

  41. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, July 12, 2019 at 10:43 am

    THE biggest lesson out of the election result for Lib lite is to stop trying to be everything to everyone. It only creates a self-wedge.

    That’s right Rex, they should only try to appeal to you.

  42. P1

    The culture that was in place at the time of the writing of the Constitution was British Imperialism. That’s why the racism was inserted into the Constitution. A Treaty resetting Sovereignty demands addressing that in the Constitution.

    It makes perfect sense for all human rights to be addressed along with changes to sovereignty

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