I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday giving my immediate post-result impressions, which offered observations such as the following:
Unexpected as all this was, the underlying dynamic is not new, and should be especially familiar to those whose memories extend to Mark Latham’s defeat at the hands of John Howard in 2004. Then as now, the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon flipped from Labor to Liberal, with forestry policy providing the catalyst on that occasion, and Labor performed poorly in the outer suburbs, reflected in yesterday’s defeat in Lindsay and its failure to win crucial seats on the fringes of the four largest cities. There were also swings to Labor against the trend in wealthy city seats, attributed in 2004 to the non-economic issues of the Iraq war and asylum seekers, and touted at the time as the “doctors’ wives” effect.
So far as this blog is concerned though, other engagements have prevented me giving the post-election aftermath the full attention it deserves. I will endeavour to rectify that later today, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here is a thread for discussion of the situation. Note also the post below this one, dedicated to updates and discussion on progress in the late count.
Just Quietly. Honestly though, in a marginal seat, an objectionable volunteer could do incredible damage to a candidate if they are out there day in and day out. Particularly if they have no self awareness and the hide of a Rhino. They would just continue to rub people up the wrong way from sun up to sun down, without a hint of self reflection on what they are doing.
Millenial,
What, did c@t accuse nath of being Angus Taylor?
Oh, I give up. They weren’t ‘new taxes’ anyway! Good night.
Electing Albanese to the leadership is such an obvious thing to do…. it’s also the wrong thing to do!
But a sore headed bear with interesting observations.
PuffyTMD @ #1303 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:00 pm
I know I will certainly not give a cent in charity to Queensland farmers and rurals when they have their next drought, flood, bushfire, whatever. Fuck ’em.
Dandy Murray @ #1349 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:41 pm
Nah, just taking a joke at my own expense. 😉
Diogenes @ #1346 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:40 pm
Thanks for proving my argument, Diogs. People just don’t pay attention to politics; even at election time and on policies which affect them.
“But they all wanted more done about climate change, especially as all had kids in their teens who were even more worried.”
Bullshit. Sorry to be blunt, but I’m tired of people saying this, then voting the opposite way.
It’s an easy thing to say, and sort of expected. It ranks well below getting a $500 kickback.
The ALP made the mistake of believing people when they said it.
Dio,
That’s a $60K embargoed poll you’ve just been given for free.
LOL
“I know I will certainly not give a cent in charity to Queensland farmers and rurals when they have their next drought, flood, bushfire, whatever. Fuck ’em.”
Pretty much. Irish butter and NZ cheese for me. Their rum is rubbish as well.
This bit wasn’t in DioPoll. The nurses were very unhappy with some Labor people being contemptuous of those who didn’t vote for them. They said Queenslanders shouldn’t be called dumb and selfish; they were smart and voted for what was best for them.
@Fletch you are right the coal mining districts will need so much transition work, but yeah, it can’t be ‘take one for the team’. We should be doing practical development work where the job benefits are obvious, helping the transition, not because we’re shutting down our coal industry, but because the rest of the world will slowly but surely stop buying the stuff and we need to plan now for alternatives.
For the record Salk ran the ‘why should Australia bother’ argument at 9.24pm
Salk says:
“And they still don’t get it. And they will still push with this Sacrificing of Australian public for NO gain to anything. It is dishonest snake oil selling to Australians. And Australians Know it.
Australians know they are very small compared to the world, and that anything that they do will have Minuscule impact on anything. However Labor is saying – we must do this so you can all feel good about yourself. Regardless of the economic impact on your life and family.”
And I saw it on Sunday a few times, not just from chortling trolls. God I hate that way of thinking.
Clem,
What is your beef with Albo?
Genuine question. Not asking for sensitive details.
Never fear! thou hast the Senate to reign over evil of Morrison.
Now, if he brings a horse in there you may start to worry.
Dio,
And there is the reason why I’ve started hearing Shorten call Billary.
Blobbit : Bullshit. Sorry to be blunt, but I’m tired of people saying this, then voting the opposite way. It’s an easy thing to say, and sort of expected. It ranks well below getting a $500 kickback.
The ALP made the mistake of believing people when they said it.
Wise words. But not original –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Action
This is the "magnum opus" of Ludwig von Mises, guru of Austrian economics (what you might call "true believer" laissez-faire, with a goodly helping of psychology.) He was a very odd bloke, but also very smart.
I can save you the trouble of reading it, by distilling its essential message down to one line.
Don't get too hung up on what people say – you can find out what they really think from what they do.
Blobbit @ #1358 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:16 pm
They can go to Barnaby for help. I am not going to give a cent to them, and I am a Qlder by birth.
Story: My Mum as a young woman worked for the local stock and station agent’s wife, going in mornings and late afternoons to do cleaning and kitchen duties. My Mum, being Anglo, was paid.
The aboriginal servant women were barely paid and part of that was their ‘stores’; flour, sugar, tea, fruit, veges etc. They were given a week’s worth of ‘stores’ at a time. If they ran out before the week was out they got no more. They went hungry until the next issue of food.
This lady put on a hot cooked lunch every day, whether hubby was home or not.
She went to Mass all the time, and one of the local priests was invariably there to have lunch with the family. She put on afternoon tea parties for the local church ladies (my Mum made ice-cream with the Mixmaster for them, and polished the silver and washed the dainty dishes.)
The house was a huge expansive thing, a Qlder with a verandah all around. She was a nice enough woman, my Mum says, but would not give a slice of bread to any of the aboriginal women if their food ran out.
Still needs work, but I’ve finally ironed out enough bugs in my results facility to make it worth publishing.
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2019/Results.htm
Please refer to the other thread for discussion of ongoing issues with it, or its contents generally:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/20/photo-finishes-3/
Dandy
Labor certainly should avoid telling the voters it was pearls before swine.
William
I saw all four major polling companies were holding major reviews into what went wrong. Who will they ask to review? Internal, external, overseas? They were worried their cred was shot.
William, I think the headings on your Projeced column are reversed
“At this point, she wrote in a statement, she “cannot reconcile the important responsibilities I have to my family with the additional responsibilities of the Labor leadership””
What? She was happy to reconcile being deputy PM with her family but not being LOTO.
Diogenes @ #1371 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:37 pm
Their cred is shot to hell.
“Don’t get too hung up on what people say – you can find out what they really think from what they do.”
Amen to that.
(Trying out the religious speak, as we move to the next phase of our theocracy)
Puffy
One (I think YouGov) said their seat polls were quite good but everyone ignored them because they didn’t match the national polls.
Dio,
As DPM, she’d have a policy platform to implement and excellent office and departmental support.
As Oppo leader, she’d have the task of policy and tactical redevelopment, and not so much support.
And anyone taking up Lee’s suggestion to read von Mises, do it, it’s very interesting stuff! But be well aware of the post-WWII context that provides its historical, intellectual and geopolitical backdrop.
max and Martin B
Note I said greens party members. Greens voter are overwhelmingly Labor friendly. Also, it may be different outside inner city Sydney and Melbourne.
I am in Robertson. The seat was lost with the pre-selection which was diverted from the branch members because of a nasty little faction fight between the Belinda Neal and Deb O’Neill factions. Belle had got hold of the branch books and, as she is unelectable, the administrative committee put in Deb’s chief of staff who had failed in 2016 and has a very light CV.
That was 18 months ago which gave the candidate plenty of time to build a profile. Now I read the Central Coast Express Advocate each week from page to page and watch the NBN3 local news every night and the number of times that the candidate appeared in either could be counted on one hand. i had actually forgotten her name until the corflutes appeared 2 weeks ago.
Lucy Wicks on the other hand is high profile and in my suburb solved the main local issue, even though it was fundamentally a council issue
All politics is local and the first step is to get a good candidate. This is as important as having big picture policies
William Bowe says:
Monday, May 20, 2019 at 5:53 pm
Leigh Sales could hardly contain her glee by the end of the night.
Yeah, I can report that pretty much everyone at the ABC was cock-a-hoop about the return of the Coalition. God knows this is obviously too much to ask, but can some of you people use the election result as a learning experience, and at least try to be less stupid?
————————
William: Could you please elaborate on that. Are you suggesting that we should desist in calling out the media for displaying evidence of systemic anti-Labor bias? I noticed the same thing. Sales normal anodyne demeanor was replaced by what the other poster correctly observed as glee.
Also, I have trouble ploughing through the volume of posts and may have missed it. But have you answered the questions I posed about the possible of multiple screen names for the same person.
Also, I have trouble ploughing through the volume of posts and may have missed it. But have you answered the questions I posed about the possible of multiple screen names for the same person.
It’s not happening, b. There’s a consilience of opinion, that’s all.
Plus several of the “new” posters are actually old ones (welcome back peeps!)
Never actually quite figured out how to use the site bar reading… any help?
“Plus several of the “new” posters are actually old ones (welcome back peeps!)”
I used to post occasionally when this was hosted on Crikey. I was much younger then 😉
No idea what name I posted under. I’ve followed the blog on and off since. At the moment, I’m venting my frustration at the results.
Dio and Andy,
I know Tanya, and she would certainly have considered taking on the role. However, she has run herself ragged in the election campaign. She often has a child or two in tow with her – reminds me of some of my earlier forays into public life – and I think LOTO (which comes with little support c.f. deputy PM as Andy said) would just be a step too far at this stage.
I also think that the ALP needs to regroup. A bit more finesse on the message, and we could’ve wonky 1 seat -but now after a loss, these policies will stile regarded as toxic by the public in 3 years time.
D and M
There is something wrong if LOTO is that much more taxing than DPM.
Dio
“There is something wrong……………..”
You’re onto something!
“…………..if LOTO is that much more taxing than DPM”
You’re somewhat inadvertently expressed exactly the message thd LNP like to express!
Diogenes @ #1384 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 12:23 am
Dio,
Joyce has been DPM for years now, and he is barely ever off the sauce. plus having time to do horizontal calisthenics. How hard can DPM be?
Ahhh, I think I’m remember how I first came to pollbludger, once there was this “pollytics” page that Id peep at, and then 2008 or something it redirected here.
Goodness, I’ve been reading long long time. Curiously, very similar in content.
Fascinating
And this self-parody from Nath
“Particularly if they have no self awareness and the hide of a Rhino. They would just continue to rub people up the wrong way from sun up till sun down, without a hint of self reflection on what they are doing.”
You are the little kid, everyone in the school just wants to avoid. Pathetic little nerd!
@Dio Deputy of laid out policy implementation with attendant PS support vs leading an opposition requiring rebuilding of policy positions and herding those cats?
Chalk and cheese surely.
Beguiledagain, you are seeing things that aren’t there, both with respect to Leigh Sales and potential sock puppets on this board.
William
“at least try to be less stupid”
An almost incurable contagion in the wider community, and not surprisingly in abundance here.
Dio
I think it is mostly in this case that the LOTL needs to drag Labor back pretty quickly to some sort of competitive position, with without the resources of the public service this will be difficult.
I think it is actually the travel that is a killer with the small(ish) children, and the Labor LOTO will be everywhere. Out of Australia but, so am not close to the situation.
beguiledagain
Not sure how long you have been a bludger but around election time there has always be a few new names pop up but there doesn’t seem to be as many new posters as there were around earlier elections.
Good morrow fair Bludgers.
Three hundred and ninety eight books to go before the next election.
If AR can fit a bullshit detector into his wonderful C+ extenstion the only things visible will be the punctuation.
Of course the location of the punctuation will give rise to the the most horrendous arguments – talk of duels – contract “hits” being offered.
♫ Let it be ♫ Dear Lord -♪ let it ♫ be ❗
Fresh coffee at 2:57 A.M. what luxury. ☕
Sgi @ #1382 Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 – 12:42 am
If I knew what this meant I would try to help.
What is the site bar please : ? :
Boerwar (from way back): ” I can’t recall Hartcher calling out any of the Big Lies…He was silent on the number of people actually affected by franking credits. ”
If you see this, I’m genuinely interested in knowing what the “big lie” was in relation to the number of people affected by franking credits.
When Labor announced the policy, they acknowledged that it would affect 1.17 million people:
although for obvious marketing reasons, they always preferred to put it in terms of “would not affect 92 per cent of taxpayers.” They then exempted pensioners from the policy, and said that this would reduce the number by 300,000. This left around 800,000 people who would still be affected.
I’m pretty sure that I heard ScoMo and other Liberals talk about 800,000 people being affected, although ScoMo also suggested that some pensioners with joint SMSFs with partners who weren’t pensioners might also still be affected. Labor said that wouldn’t be the case, but – as you would expect – their policy proposal wasn’t detailed enough for anyone to work out how they would avoid it.
So where was the “big lie” in all of this? Have I missed something?
My underlying thought in all this is that I don’t think most Labor members, supporters, activists and perhaps even candidates ever fully grasped the very large numbers of people who were going to be affected by this measure. Which was a problem.
Boerwar: “Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison, Hanson, Katter, Palmer and Dirty Dick Di Natale, working ally to the rabid right, ALL spent six years vilifying Shorten. And lo! He was unpopular! Albanese had better get ready for the same treatment.”
Albo won’t receive it. He’s much quicker on his feet than Shorten, far more engaging through the TV camera, he’s witty and, most importantly, he’s as tough as teak. Like Tony Abbott before him, Shorten never looked the least bit comfortable on camera. And he wasn’t much better in parliament: a venue in which Albo thrives.
As I have consistently said, I think Shorten would have made a really good PM in terms of running the country, bringing different interest groups together, etc. But the modern electronic era demands more than these capabilities from political leaders: they also need to be able to communicate with the TV audience down the lens of a camera. Shorten isn’t the first Labor leader to lack this skill: Hayden and Crean also lacked it. Hawke, Keating and Rudd exuded it. And Albo has it too.
I’m still a little worried about Albo’s intrinsically far left attitudes and, of course, some of his mates from his past (who we are undoubtedly going to hear a lot about from the Murdoch press at some point). But otherwise I reckon he’s got everything it takes to compete well with ScoMo from Day 1.
Redlands Mowerman: “What it was, was an unpopular leader, a born to lead mindset, and a lack of understanding the electorate because it is now a party of the comfortable, well-fed, inner city left elite.”
Once upon a time, Labor was predominantly a party of self-interest on behalf of its working class constituency. But, since the 1960s, it has also responded more and more to the views of the inner urban middle class, whose presiding political concerns are a mixture of self-interest (more public sector jobs, more funding for schools and universities, more funding for the arts, publicly-owned media organisations, etc) and idealistic altruism (fixing the environment, redistributing wealth to the underprivileged, identity politics, etc.)
What Labor has done pretty well at times – particularly under Hawke and Keating – has been to expertly juggle these three strands of influence (ie, working class and middle class self-interest and middle-class idealistic altruism). What seems to have happened in the recent election is that the middle class idealistic altruism was allowed to get out of control and turn on the middle class self-interest, alienating a lot of older voters who might normally have voter for Labor or at least considered doing so.
Labor’s tax policies, if implemented, would have adversely affected 800,000 retired people, many hundreds of thousands more wage and salary earners (through the top marginal tax rate increase, the tightening of tax thresholds for the 15 per cent rate of tax on super and through the reduction in allowable after-tax contributions), as well as many more who want to continue investing in the rental housing market, not to mention many thousands of people who work in the real estate, stockbroking and financial advice sectors.
There would seem to be lots and lots of people living at the “big end of town”. By the time you include spouses and other close family, it’s got to be at least 2 million people and possibly a lot more than this.
Most of these people were probably only set to lose a few thousand dollars per annum. But, even so, it’s no easy thing to walk into a polling booth on election day and vote yourself a pay cut.
I think the Labor Party might well have ended up biting the middle class hand that feeds it. It’s one thing to talk about taking rorts away from the fat cats and giving the money to the poor and needy. But, what’s that, you’re saying I’m one of the fat cats? Now just wait a minute there buddy…
New thread.