The second morning after

A second thread for discussion of the post-election aftermath, as the Coalition waits to see if it will make it to a parliamentary majority, and Labor licks it wounds and prepared to choose a new leader.

I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday giving my immediate post-result impressions, which offered observations such as the following:

Unexpected as all this was, the underlying dynamic is not new, and should be especially familiar to those whose memories extend to Mark Latham’s defeat at the hands of John Howard in 2004. Then as now, the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon flipped from Labor to Liberal, with forestry policy providing the catalyst on that occasion, and Labor performed poorly in the outer suburbs, reflected in yesterday’s defeat in Lindsay and its failure to win crucial seats on the fringes of the four largest cities. There were also swings to Labor against the trend in wealthy city seats, attributed in 2004 to the non-economic issues of the Iraq war and asylum seekers, and touted at the time as the “doctors’ wives” effect.

So far as this blog is concerned though, other engagements have prevented me giving the post-election aftermath the full attention it deserves. I will endeavour to rectify that later today, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here is a thread for discussion of the situation. Note also the post below this one, dedicated to updates and discussion on progress in the late count.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,403 comments on “The second morning after”

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  1. Cud Chewer @ #1292 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 10:55 pm

    “No CC, you don’t get it. People are not interested in politics or policy details unless it directly affects them. ”

    That’s my freakin point dude. Labor should have been on the street communicating to ordinary people the benefits of their policies and how they personally affect them all day, every day for years. Not wait till the campaign.

    Um, Cudly, my good man, our Labor team in Robertson, as were others around this wide,brown Climate Change affected land, were doing just that for the last 3 years. In the end it didn’t matter more than the facebook meme people clicked on and shared.

  2. Ross Gittins gets it:

    It’s a great win for the Coalition, but a loss for economic policy. The voters’ “revealed preference” is for more personality, less debate of the tough choices we must make to secure our future in a threatening world.

    The first lesson the pollies will learn is that disunity doesn’t have to be death. Almost six years of fighting like Kilkenny cats can be forgotten during the eternity of a five-week election campaign, provided you put all the focus on the latest guy, and his predecessors are kept hidden.

    The second lesson the pollies will learn is that the only safe strategy for oppositions is to make themselves a “small target”, with only a few, popular policies, so all the focus is on the failings of the government.

    Whatever policy changes you may be thinking of making, keep your intentions to yourself and don’t, whatever you do, seek a mandate for change.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/morrison-s-miracle-election-may-turn-out-to-be-the-easy-bit-20190519-p51owo.html

  3. briefly @ #1259 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:54 pm

    Millennial….Jones has a point. It would be very unwise to suppose that voters who have just rejected Labor will soon regret it and shower their affections on us.

    The will not, not until they are personally hurt by the Coalitions actions. And there are certain sections of the community for whom I will not give a stuff if karma bites back.

  4. “Um, Cudly, my good man, our Labor team in Robertson, as were others around this wide,brown Climate Change affected land, were doing just that for the last 3 years. In the end it didn’t matter more than the facebook meme people clicked on and shared.”

    Well C@t, head office needs to find a better way to do this. I can’t blame local teams if they’ve not been given much to go on.

  5. And a +100 to everyone encouraging the PB lurkers and past participants to get back on board.

    Perhaps a catchy name is in order for this particular campaign. With apologies to Messrs Stewart and Colbert, I myself lean towards “Rally To Restore Sanity”!

  6. Cud Chewer @ #1294 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 10:55 pm

    “No CC, you don’t get it. People are not interested in politics or policy details unless it directly affects them. ”

    That’s my freakin point dude. Labor should have been on the street communicating to ordinary people the benefits of their policies and how they personally affect them all day, every day for years. Not wait till the campaign.

    No, your point is that Labor needs to explain their policies. It won’t work. People do not listen to more than a simple, short message. Give them a simple message to remember: stop the rorts. They can look at the details on page 2 but keep page 1 as the short, memorable headline (adapt metaphor to suit the appropriate medium).

  7. …and on that note, and in the interests of keeping things fair and balanced: Lars, don’t you dare go anywhere!

  8. No C@t my point is fundamentally deeper
    Its not about explaining policies.
    Its about changing hearts and minds about the underlying facts and ideas.

    Everyone believed that Labor was basically “redistributing”. They weren’t. But to get the ordinary voter to know this deeply is to explain to the average voter a bunch of small facts. Facts like a dollar spent on universities is 26 dollars of growth in the economy. Head office thinks people are suppose to already know this.

  9. Did anyone notice that the most expensive stuff up which affects almost everyone on a daily basis and perpetrated solely by the Coals didn’t get a mention NBN? Please explain.

  10. Ross Gittins gets Happy Clappy Pappy in one, though identifies a problem for Labor too:

    Morrison spent five weeks performing for the cameras to the exclusion of all others, and the electorate warmed to what it saw. Perhaps what Labor needs is a casting director.

  11. “No, your point is that Labor needs to explain their policies.”

    Its Time. See above. As hard as it is to do. Unless Labor sees its mission as communicating to the average, disaffected, disengaged, ignorant voter about basic facts about the world, Labor will always struggle and the fear mongers will always win (more often).

  12. I don’t care how fucking photogenic Labor’s leader is. If the ordinary “low information” voter thinks that the Libs are better with growing the economy, it aint going to work.

  13. Fletch @ #1287 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 10:22 pm

    @crispy I agree. But I am not a coal miner. Do you think we can convince them? Stop telling them the risks – they think they have to sacrifice something, like targeted taxes, they say “why me?”

    We need to convince them that we’re all in this – and it isn’t just them that have to sacrifice.

    Give each of them a separation package paid for by the government, up to $250,000 each. It would be cheaper than all this other nonsense. Treat these fluckers like they really are, greedy aresoles. If anyone else whinges about it, just tell them to suck it up, it is the cost of getting a left government into power.

  14. itsthevibe @ #1306 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:02 pm

    And a +100 to everyone encouraging the PB lurkers and past participants to get back on board.

    Perhaps a catchy name is in order for this particular campaign. With apologies to Messrs Stewart and Colbert, I myself lean towards “Rally To Restore Sanity”!

    Psephos would be a welcome prior commenter to make a return IMO.

  15. Cud Chewer @ #1308 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:04 pm

    No C@t my point is fundamentally deeper
    Its not about explaining policies.
    Its about changing hearts and minds about the underlying facts and ideas.

    Everyone believed that Labor was basically “redistributing”. They weren’t. But to get the ordinary voter to know this deeply is to explain to the average voter a bunch of small facts. Facts like a dollar spent on universities is 26 dollars of growth in the economy. Head office thinks people are suppose to already know this.

    And you don’t get the reality, Cud. Having gone door to door myself I know that most people couldn’t give a flying fig about the facts as they may be. They usually want to get back to cooking dinner, watching the footy or the Reality TV series or GoT, bathing the kids and putting them to bed and then having a quiet wine or 2 before they go to bed and do it all the next day. They don’t have the luxury of time. So they squeeze their leisure time in to going on facebook with their friends, which is where they get their information from.

    Did you read the data analytics article by Max Koslowski today? You should.

  16. Here’s a tip: you are so often wrong that perhaps a radical experiment is in order. I suggest the George Costanza ‘opposite’ method. If an idea comes into your head, do the opposite of that idea. You wan’t a ham sandwich? Make a chicken sandwich. Like George you might end up in a wonderful new world.

    That might be a good bit of advice for the ALP at large.

  17. C@tmomma @ #1302 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 10:30 pm

    Ross Gittins gets it:

    It’s a great win for the Coalition, but a loss for economic policy. The voters’ “revealed preference” is for more personality, less debate of the tough choices we must make to secure our future in a threatening world.

    The first lesson the pollies will learn is that disunity doesn’t have to be death. Almost six years of fighting like Kilkenny cats can be forgotten during the eternity of a five-week election campaign, provided you put all the focus on the latest guy, and his predecessors are kept hidden.

    The second lesson the pollies will learn is that the only safe strategy for oppositions is to make themselves a “small target”, with only a few, popular policies, so all the focus is on the failings of the government.

    Whatever policy changes you may be thinking of making, keep your intentions to yourself and don’t, whatever you do, seek a mandate for change.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/morrison-s-miracle-election-may-turn-out-to-be-the-easy-bit-20190519-p51owo.html

    Yep, that is what I am saying. Treat the mugs like the mugs they are. They deserve no better.

  18. Cud Chewer @ #1313 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:06 pm

    “No, your point is that Labor needs to explain their policies.”

    Its Time. See above. As hard as it is to do. Unless Labor sees its mission as communicating to the average, disaffected, disengaged, ignorant voter about basic facts about the world, Labor will always struggle and the fear mongers will always win (more often).

    Cud

    I am explaining how Labor can more effectively communicate with the punters. It may not suit your preconceptions, so be it.

  19. Fletch,


    @crispy I agree. But I am not a coal miner. Do you think we can convince them? Stop telling them the risks – they think they have to sacrifice something, like targeted taxes, they say “why me?”

    We need to convince them that we’re all in this – and it isn’t just them that have to sacrifice.

    Nah, don’t ever address it directly. The coal industry will wither and die of its own accord – coal for stationary power certainly will.

    Instead, only talk about the positive opportunities and actions of the next Labor Govt.

    Eg. back a renewable energy zone for Capricornia and Dawson. Link it with transmission infrastructure through Dawson to a hydrogen and ammonia production facility near Abbott point. Keep selling energy to Asia. Give the Japanese and Koreans the supply of raw materials they need. Value add by setting up fertiliser and/or plastics manufacturing plant locally.

    Most workers could now live near the coast. All without the risk of black lung.

    Plan the same somewhere in WA.

    Jobs, jobs, jobs

  20. “stop the rorts”

    That won’t work. It’s simple, but what’s in it for me?

    “Bigger, better tax cuts”. That might work as someone suggested.

  21. briefly @ #1259 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 10:24 pm

    Millennial….Jones has a point. It would be very unwise to suppose that voters who have just rejected Labor will soon regret it and shower their affections on us.

    Okay, then write Queensland off and focus the efforts elsewhere. Can’t straddle the fence on coal for six seats out of 30.

  22. “Plan the same somewhere in WA.

    Jobs, jobs, jobs”

    Say all that stuff, plus you’ll keep the mines open. When you get in, close the mines down.

  23. And Peter Martin explains how the Coalition do exactly the same as Labor would do but sell it better:

    It means we can’t rely on household spending to revitalise the economy (although the government will give it a go, stumping up a bonus of as much as $1,080 to be delivered with each tax return from July in a much-needed boost that will be disguised as a tax cut rather than spending).

    https://theconversation.com/their-biggest-challenge-avoiding-a-recession-117381

  24. Cud Chewer @ #1309 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 10:34 pm

    No C@t my point is fundamentally deeper
    Its not about explaining policies.
    Its about changing hearts and minds about the underlying facts and ideas.

    Everyone believed that Labor was basically “redistributing”. They weren’t. But to get the ordinary voter to know this deeply is to explain to the average voter a bunch of small facts. Facts like a dollar spent on universities is 26 dollars of growth in the economy. Head office thinks people are suppose to already know this.

    Australian voters do not have hearts and minds. They are basically just sunflowers who face whatever way the sun sends warmth down. Or rats following a food trail. Just leave a trail of crumbs for them to follow and you can lure them anywhere you want.


  25. Say all that stuff, plus you’ll keep the mines open. When you get in, close the mines down.

    Gold star!

    Your mission, if you choose to accept, is a one-way ticket to Charters Towers to explain it in full technical detail to the locals 😛

  26. “And you don’t get the reality, Cud. Having gone door to door myself I know that most people couldn’t give a flying fig about the facts as they may be.”

    So the Labor organisation needs to find more effective strategies than mere door knocking.

    I’m not saying that is easy.

  27. Was it the Business Council talking about increasing Newstart before the election? Still talking about it are they?

  28. “Australian voters do not have hearts and minds. They are basically just sunflowers who face whatever way the sun sends warmth down. Or rats following a food trail. Just leave a trail of crumbs for them to follow and you can lure them anywhere you want.”

    What can I say. They are humans. However, I wish it were that easy.

  29. Puffy gets it too. 🙂

    And put a nice bit of cheese at the end of the trail of crumbs and they will vote for you for life! Call it a Franking Credit Cash refund, for example. Even if yours is only the size of a crumb and the other guy’s is as big as a bread mountain, you’ll think you’ve hit paydirt.

  30. Dear ALP supporters. I am very much a Liberal Party supporter, but I sincerely feel sympathy for you in the aftermath of the election.
    One thing I value, and I think you all value as well is that both sides of the aisle need the other to constantly challenge them and keep them reassessing their positions.
    Neither side is really evil. But if you get too deeply involved in politics you can begin to think so.
    One thing I have learnt is that the pendulum will always swing back. Today I’m jubilant at victory, but I know that in the future there will be a time when I will feel as you do now.
    It’s probably even worse for you because for 2 years now you have assumed that the LNP government was in the same position as the Gillard and Rudd governments of 2010 to 2013, badly behind in the polls and not scoring any real victories.
    However, I think that you must strongly resist the urge, as I have seen a few on here do, to blame the voters. If there are low information voters out there, you can bet that they split amongst the parties in exactly the same proportions as the intelligent voters.
    It will be better for you and for the country if you admit that the Coalition actually contains a lot of smart people who just think differently that you do on how the country should be governed. They are neither evil nor stupid. They may be wrong. But then again so may you.
    But if you admit that you beaten by people of good faith and high intelligence, then you will see that it is not a disaster to be defeated. Don’t take your anger at the result to be a reflection of the state of the nation. The voters and the LNP are not going to ensure that all women and minority’s are flogged in the public square. The economy isn’t going to collapse because the government didn’t make the tax system even more incredibly complex and unfair. Transgender people really won’t be any worse off without a national transgender centre. Nor will any kind of discrimination increase because the coalition won.
    Remember this is an argument about ideas. You guys are pretty good at coming up with ideas. Those ideas can change things even if you are not in office.

  31. That’s another one of those ideas that Labor has to win over.
    The idea that wage cuts/moderation creates jobs. Its been proven wrong over and over.
    The Labor organisation has not plan to change that.

  32. Just Quietly

    If I had a vote in the Labor leadership ballot I would have a hard time knowing how to use it.

    For example, Fitzgibbon talks about Labor being a bit more “centerist”. What does that actually mean when de-cloaked? Does he mean more tax money spent on coal fired power?

    Where does Tanya stand on detailed policy? I have no idea. Why isn’t this sort of shit already spelled out in detail on some web site somewhere?

  33. nath says:
    Monday, May 20, 2019 at 11:02 pm
    Having C@t out on the streets in Robertson day in and day out has got to be worth a % or 2 to the liberals.

    Nath, it was funny the first time but now you’re just being a dick. Whilst I agree that Catmomma’s attitude can be objectionable on here and many of your contributions are amusing, at least she is having a crack in the real world.

    What are your great achievements in life that warrant such smug self-righteousness? Living in Victoria, voting green and posting here aint gonna save the world. I hope you don’t take this personally, and I am sure you’re an interesting guy in the real world but your contributions on here often aren’t far above Rex’s level.

  34. I thought Chalmers was pretty good tonight. With his QLD background, his age, his good looks, his brains and his ability to remember people’s names and balance multiple threads of discussions I’d be happy to see him appointed Albo’s 2IC.

  35. @Puffy and Dandy
    I kind of see both points and they are along the lines I’m thinking – not so much puff,s massive pay outs. – but show them we are helping them. Don’t focus on climate change per se – simply take the rest of the world’s reactions as read. Eg investment in coal is diminishing, play up the fact London going coal free etc Make the “emergency” the fact that we have to focus on getting them jobs away from a dying industry.
    And, FFS, get CFMEU on board with the plan! We’ve been smashed by both forestry and coal backlashes now Labor needs to be smarter.

  36. “Nope. Nope. Nope. They’ve done a 180 and now they are talking about a slowing economy requiring wage cuts. ”

    No, really. I’m shocked.

    Cud Chewer – all those things need to happen, but they need to happen once the ALP wins government.

    To get in, they need to do small target, promise “one of tax refunds”, no pain for anyone at all and ideally a unicorn in every pot.

  37. Just Quietly
    says:
    Monday, May 20, 2019 at 11:31 pm
    nath says:
    Monday, May 20, 2019 at 11:02 pm
    Having C@t out on the streets in Robertson day in and day out has got to be worth a % or 2 to the liberals.
    Nath, it was funny the first time but now you’re just being a dick. Whilst I agree that Catmomma’s attitude can be objectionable on here and many of your contributions are amusing, at least she is having a crack in the real world.
    What are your great achievements in life that warrant such smug self-righteousness? Living in Victoria, voting green and posting here aint gonna save the world. I hope you don’t take this personally, and I am sure you’re an interesting guy in the real world but your contributions on here often aren’t far above Rex’s level.
    —————————————-
    Fair point. She just accused me of being Lars, which is what she always does when someone comes along that has an idea that is similar to someone she dislikes. So I’d thought I’d also run with some recycled material as well.

  38. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, May 20, 2019 at 11:30 pm
    Just Quietly

    “If I had a vote in the Labor leadership ballot I would have a hard time knowing how to use it.

    For example, Fitzgibbon talks about Labor being a bit more “centerist”. What does that actually mean when de-cloaked? Does he mean more tax money spent on coal fired power?

    Where does Tanya stand on detailed policy? I have no idea. Why isn’t this sort of shit already spelled out in detail on some web site somewhere?”

    Interesting isn’t it. Its the kind of decision that warrants some thought doesn’t it, and debate. I kinda like the new(wish) process

  39. I can’t believe Bludgers here are accusing other Bludgers of having sock puppet Bludgers to praise themselves.

    What a low blow.

    What a snide remark to say.

    Like anyone here would be so full of themselves and such a gluttonous need for validation to require them to like their own posts.

  40. Millennial @ #1342 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:36 pm

    I can’t believe Bludgers here are accusing other Bludgers of having sock puppet Bludgers to praise themselves.

    What a low blow.

    What a snide remark to say.

    Like anyone here would be so full of themselves and such a gluttonous need for validation to require them to like their own posts.

    Fantastic. Great move. Well done Millennial

  41. Millennial @ #1343 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:36 pm

    I can’t believe Bludgers here are accusing other Bludgers of having sock puppet Bludgers to praise themselves.

    What a low blow.

    What a snide remark to say.

    Like anyone here would be so full of themselves and such a gluttonous need for validation to require them to like their own posts.

    Fantastic. Great move. Well done Millennial

  42. Just Quietly @ #1342 Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 11:36 pm

    Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, May 20, 2019 at 11:30 pm
    Just Quietly

    “If I had a vote in the Labor leadership ballot I would have a hard time knowing how to use it.

    For example, Fitzgibbon talks about Labor being a bit more “centerist”. What does that actually mean when de-cloaked? Does he mean more tax money spent on coal fired power?

    Where does Tanya stand on detailed policy? I have no idea. Why isn’t this sort of shit already spelled out in detail on some web site somewhere?”

    Interesting isn’t it. Its the kind of decision that warrants some thought doesn’t it, and debate. I kinda like the new(wish) process

    So, remind me, who sets party policy; national conference or the parliamentary leader?

  43. “Psephos would be a welcome prior commenter to make a return IMO.”
    He’d be like a bear with a sore head at the moment.

    Another comment the nurses made was that Labor didn’t tell them what the benefit to them of the new taxes would be. It was just easier to stay how it was.

    But they all wanted more done about climate change, especially as all had kids in their teens who were even more worried.

    So those were the results of Diopoll (sample size between 10 and 3000, poll conducted 20/5, zero non-respondent rate) ;
    1. Too many new taxes which weren’t understood (and a few that didn’t exist)
    2. No good reason for the pain of extra taxes (literally couldn’t come up with one reason)
    3. Didn’t think Labor were doing much more about CC than Liberals (at the same time as complaining energy would cost more under Labor)

    I should add that not a single respondent said Shorten was a problem.

    Don’t shoot the messenger. That’s a $60K embargoed poll you’ve just been given for free.

  44. Thank you, Just Quietly, but like Confessions said, who gives a toss about what a flea like nath has to say about you? He’s just an exhibitionist who craves attention. At least I try and discuss policy and politics thoughtfully, most of the time. Even if you may find what I do at other times to be distasteful.

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