Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Newspoll ends the campaign with a big sample poll that offers no surprises, with Labor maintaining its modest but decisive edge.

The Australian brings us the final Newspoll of the campaign, and it lands bang on the uniform pollster consensus in recording Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5. Last week’s Newspoll had it at 51-49, but that result involved rounding to whole numbers. On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%.

The poll has a bumper sample of 3008 – it’s not clear when the field work period began, but “2108 interviews were conducted in the 24 hours up until midday yesterday”. Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 46% and down one on disapproval to 45%; Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly, from 45-38 to 47-38.

That should be the final poll for the campaign, and hence the final addition to BludgerTrack, which has been just about carved in stone for the past week. However, the addition of the Newspoll result does cause Labor to make one gain on the seat projection, that being in Victoria, although it has only made a 0.1% difference on the national two-party preferred.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have state breakdowns compiled from the last two Ipsos polls, though only two-party preferred numbers are provided so I can’t make use of them in BludgerTrack. I’m not too troubled by this though, as they rather improbably have Labor more strongly placed in New South Wales, where they lead 53-47, than in Victoria, where their lead is 52-48. Elsewhere, it’s 50-50 in Queensland and with the Coalition leading 51-49 in both Western Australia (more-or-less plausibly) and South Australia (less so).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,283 comments on “Newspoll: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. In general, I don’t think you can really ascertain much from the mood at the booth. You’re seeing a small subset of any given electorate, likely only during one section of the day, many of whom are just being friendly (or surly) to everyone wearing a party shirt, and others who are determine not to reveal a hint of their voting intention. Its an extremely small, unrepresentative sample by its very nature.

  3. Late Riser:

    Put me down for the following:

    TPP on the night: 51/49
    TPP at the close of counting: 52/48
    Seat count: 81/7/63
    The time when Labor or Coalition win is declared: 10:38pm

  6. LR
    My guesses:
    ALP 2pp on night 53.4
    ALP 2pp at declaration 52.8
    SEATS: ALP 87 LNP 57 Others 7
    Time of declaration (I assume you mean by the estimable Mr Green) 8:23 EST

    Thanks for doing this

  7. So assuming Abbott and Dutton lose, and Morrison is not re-elected PM (but presumably holds his seat) how long does it take the libs to do a centrist reboot and for Phelps and other lib lite indies to join the rebranded party?

  10. Around 5:40pm is when you get a sniff of the exits. 6pm is the full release.

    Noting – NSW election exit 50-50 and Vic 55-45…

    So grain of salt stuff.

  11. SGI 3:29. If you’re a labor supporter try the John Curtin Lygon St Carlton.

    There’s probably also a party across the road at Trades Hall

  13. In Page boondocks booth this morning single Nats htv person packed up and gone by 11am. My local rural booth likely Greens top pv again. Once was nats heartland. A few hours talking about local matters with local ALP htv neighbours mostly, including alp stalwart Pat octogenarian or so, under the hoop pines. None of the rancour as some might expect here. Booth in town 2 greens, 2 ajp, 1 ALP, 1 nats handing out, fairly quiet. Seems many have made up their mind, whatever that is. ALP lots of posters but not so much campaign or people really. A few locals just over it all a bit on a sunny Saturday afternoon now.

  15. I just heard Richard di N on ABC talking very fast and his message was wtte he wants a Labor HoR so that the Greens can work with Bill in the Senate to bring about action on CC. Insisted he had every confidence in Bill’s ability to negotiate.

    This sounded rather different to the aggressive RDN we have been hearing up to now.

  16. poroti @ #960 Saturday, May 18th, 2019 – 3:09 pm

    BH

    Did you see my reply to Steve Watson ? The French Senate proclaimed Napoleon Emperor on 18 May 1804. The coronation was later.

    poroti
    I missed that. Thanks. I’m actually a Napoleon fan so suits me for Bill to win today.
    Thinking about Laurie Oakes comments – I agree that Labor haven’t crucified the Govt’s 6 yr mess properly. I know they wanted to run a positive campaign readying for government, but was Oakes actually telling us to vote Labor?

  18. Sportsbet seems not to have reinstated its market on both Abbott and Dutton being booted. After being suspended it re-emerged at 1.80 but now does not appear.

  22. Citizen – They’re both there but no longer in alphabetical position. They’re at the top of their state listing.

  26. Late Riser:

    Please put me down for the following:

    TPP on the night: 51/49
    TPP at the close of counting: 52/48
    Seat count: 79/6/66
    The time when Labor win is declared: 8:15pm. I think the change of government will be clear early. But the exact number of seats will take hours because of close contests in Qld.

  27. All the Green volunteers I spoke to the day sounded very eager for a Labor victory and (to my mild surprise) very pro-Bill Shorten, with one talking at length about his tactical skill and the strength of his frontbench, and another particularly annoyed about the anti-Shorten posters around the booth.

  28. On the TPP, I’ll go for a conservative 52.7/47.3 – but patchy in places so not as big haul of seats as this should result in. I’m hoping the swings in Vic wil be so significant that Antobny Green will be able to call the election (“Unless something unexpected happens in WA”) before 8.30pm. I would not be amazed to see an ALP TPP >53

    I agree the youth (under 35) and climate vote is skewed to more conservative voters in most polls. I don’t know what polsters don’t routinely ask “have you changed your TPP since the last election” to get actual swing data and how soft the voye is. I know some ask similar questions but you rarely see that reported.

    Any advantage morrison may have had for his short period of incumbency was wiped by Bob’s impecable timing (although I think he might still rise tomorrow morning after 3-days just to remove all doubt about his Messiah status).

  29. ALP 52.79 on the night
    ALP 52.19 at end of voting
    ALP 86 seats
    LNP 59 seats
    Other 6 seats
    Called at 8.07 by Mr Green

  30. Feeling very positive amongst the left wing volunteers at my booth this afternoon. Visit from the local Greens and Labor candidates. Only one Lib, the ex state MP who was the only one to lose at the state election in NSW to Labor.

    One guy clearly wasn’t enjoying the positivity amongst the left, shouting “hope you’re happy you union f**ks” “f**k off to Hell you commie imbeciles”

  31. Everyone over 65 does NOT support Morrison!

    Sally McManus
    ‏@sallymcmanus
    1h1 hour ago

    Today I personally thanked one of the heroes of the #changetherules campaign. This is Joan she is 82, our oldest activist and has been campaigning day and night

  32. OMG. What came over Denis Shananahan ! He’ll be sent to the norty room over at the GG .:)
    ………………………………………………………………………………
    Beers all round as surge of emotion tips scales to Bill Shorten

    Bill Shorten is headed for an election win on a late lift in support and a surge in
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/beers-all-round-as-surge-of-emotion-tips-scales-to-bill-shorten/news-story/49959d9af51fa38135695976e12cb420

  33. I am very very confident that their grating LNP will lose tonight and be consigned to the stables as Labor forms a good government for three terms.

  36. Just a thought on when I pre-polled earlier this week.
    I live in Macnamara AKA Melbourne Ports, and the booth that I voted in is located in Grey Street. Lets just say that the Co-hort who voted at that booth that day are probably not the type of person who springs to mind when they think of your usual pre-poll voter. Those who live in Melbourne and are particular location should know exactly what I mean. Given the locale of the Booth, it’s also not that surprising that there were no Party Volunteers in attendance. There was a large queue, however and I thought I detected a mood for change (although I could have been very mistaken) As there were no party volunteers, when I eventually got to register my name with one of the booth workers, I had to ask for a how to vote, which another booth worker promptly reached for from under their desk, after asking which party I wanted. I asked for the ALP, and then in afterthought I also asked for Greens and then LNP.
    Now this is the thing that struck me as passing strange, considering the demographic of who were voting that day. The Bloke behind me, then aslo asked for a HTV, but instead of asking for one from each party he only asked for one from the LNP.
    Now as I said, this particular booth, Macnamarra, located in Grey Street StKilda means that the LNP are LEAST affordable party to vote for for any body who voted there that day.
    Sometimes you really have to question the intelligence of some people when they deliberately vote against their own interest. Especially for a party that treats the people like the poor fellow behind me as the lowest of the low, and for no other reason than the situation that they happen to be in the bottom demographic in life

  38. My % tonight (thanks Bob):

    ALP 55% 2pp so LNP 45% 2pp

    Declaration of final results:

    ALP 54.5% 2pp so LNP 45.5% 2pp

    Seats won ALP 98, IND 8 LNP 45

  39. I’m feeling pretty confident, and will be predicting 52.5 – 47.5 to the ALP, around 85 seats, and Antony to call it at 8:30 pm. I will admit that this is based almost entirely on wishful thinking on my part, however.

  40. Put me down for being pissed as a parrot by 10:30 pm.
    With a cigar in one hand, and a can of Hawkes Lager in the other.
    Fuck the Tories.
    Labor 81 seats.
    Mad Monk and Herr Führer Potato Head GORN.

  42. No idea when AG calls it, even if he does tonight, might be waiting for those WA figures to come in at 8PM Eastern Standard time.
    Will be a wild ride, I suspect, and not sure I can cope with 3 hours of Leigh Sayles and Annabelle and Michael Rowland. As for the commercial outfits, nah.

  43. @WWP you’re assuming Phelps in returned in Wentworth. The Liberals and the bookmakers are both pretty confident she won’t be. Keryn will be fondly remembered for facilitating the rolling on the floor of the lower house of the Morrison government in its dying days, but I don’t think she’ll get another lap around the block.

  44. So assuming Abbott and Dutton lose, and Morrison is not re-elected PM (but presumably holds his seat) how long does it take the libs to do a centrist reboot and for Phelps and other lib lite indies to join the rebranded party?

    Very unlikely. Why trash your independent brand by shacking up with a major party? And besides, the coalition is either going to be in total disarray, or papering over the chasm if they lose this election. If I were an independent I’d stay well away from that.

  47. “Put me down for being pissed as a parrot by 10:30 pm.”

    This will be my first election sober since I gave up the sauce.
    Fek it, might just treat this as a special occasion.

  48. It’s not impossible to predict that neither Shorten or Morrison will able to declare anything definitive tonight, all those pre poll votes still to count, and I bet the AEC doesn’t count a lot of them in some places. So I’d be cautious about predicting results from here, but that’s just me, Mr Sit on the Fence

  49. @Late Riser….put me down for
    2PP of 52.35 LP for the night
    2PP of 52 overall
    Labor to win 84 seats
    Anthony Green to call it by 9.05pm

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