Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.
Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.
Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:
Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.
Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.
Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.
Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.
There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.
I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:
As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.
In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.
UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.
The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.
SA 52/48 Lab
WA 52/48 Lib
Qld 50/50
Vic 54/46 Lab
NSW&ACT 51/49 Lib
Upnorth @ #1297 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 10:44 pm
Is this behind a paywall?
Read the room auntie ffs.
Pyne and Alan Jones on next week’s Qanda. Something to look forward to.
Libs improving in nsw. We have a lot to answer for here.
As indeed do Michael Daley and the other idiot who preceded him whose name I forget. Which sums up his career.
William – Bludger Track QLD looking good despite earlier concerns
BB
Yes.
As I said earlier I bet Plibersek wishes she had Di Natale’s freedom on Newstart. The people are ahead of parliament
Seriously, is anyone going to watch next week’s Q & A?
Ghost – QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (-4.1 since election) ALP 50
Those polling figures are aggregated from past 5 Newspolls
NSW & Qld are both 50/50? Isn’t that an improvement on labor’s results for both at the 2016 federal election?
Labor ahead in most places. That’s a disaster for them. If only Albo were the leader.
NSW & ACT Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (+1.1 since election)
NSW is the drag
FS
I will. The wailing of Jones etc mourning the death of neo Liberalism will be joy to the ears as we bask in the expected Labor win.
Don’t believe ACT will be 51/49 to Libs…
51/49 in NSW (+ACT) lol no…
4% swing to Labor in Qld?. So much for Courier Mail spin.
New Republic @ #1314 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 10:49 pm
We share the same area code with NSW so they probably lump us in with their numbers.
I thought Birmingham was doing a good sales job and Tanya wasn’t getting the message across as well. However the last question Birmingham absolutely died and Tanya blitzed it. This is what people will remember if anything. The other two did a very good job throughout.
Is there a link the state Newspoll figures?
Scrolling through some comments tonight got me thinking back to the “No More Morrison” thing.
Sorry. I needed to get that off my chest.
I’d be concernced that NSW plus ACT only gets Labor to 51/49 given ACT is like 60 something to Lab.
J341983 says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:49 pm
51/49 in NSW (+ACT) lol no…
If there aggregated over last 5 polls will reflect NSW State Election me thinks
ar, I was pointing out the raft of costs which may/will impact
There may be the cost of moving from rented accommodation and bonds for utility supply
Simply, there are costs and they add up
In Victoria the exemption from Stamp Duty on the Transfer refers to $600,000- as I understand
As an Adelaide product, having had family friends very senior at News Ltd (as it was) and knowing some who went from journalism to Murdoch, the story was always that Murdoch never instructed as to the bias in articles, but it was known what bias was the expectation if you wished to retain your job
Some left to join The Advertiser, which was then a listed Public Company ultimately assumed by Murdoch hence a one paper town for a generation now
The cancer of Murdoch runs to Metro and Regional publications
When do the new state breakdowns end up incorporated into BludgerTrack?
Those state results give 82 seats to ALP
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122?mode=regional&overall=0&nsw=custom&vic=custom&qld=custom&wa=custom&sa=custom&tas=custom&act=custom&nt=custom&retiringmps=true&warr=ind&state=federal&y=2019&help=10884170&chartSeatWidth=3&swing=20&showStates=yes&showLink=yes
Ghost will be getting those state Newspoll figures from the front page of The Australian, which gets emailed to subscribers some time after 10:30pm each night. The link won’t be up until midnight. Ghost has already said the figures are from an aggregate of the last 5 Newspolls in April & May, not a new poll.
If it is over the last 5 electoral cycles than I wonder if the state election had any influence on the result in NSW.
Looks like St Julian just got smacked upside his head with #metoo.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/sweden-to-reopen-assange-case/news-story/3925925be7cccc865adc3f60bb81ebc0
NSW may be contaminates and not sure how UAP read out have influenced the 2PP.
Saving for your first home
When the state of the economy has interest rates on savings with a 2 or less in front of it
Why are no questions asked?
“Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
4m
If I plug those #Newspoll breakdowns into my seat model, Coalition drops 8 seats in Qld and just 3 in the rest of the country (with a pretty good chance of getting one back.)
Seems a highly unlikely scenario.”
Thanks Leroy.
‘More than 1/3 of voters say the Adani convoy makes them less likely to vote for Greens and only 12% say more likely. Sounds like 50% of people asked thought the question was a bit irrelevant.’
So the 35% who are rusted on right will continue to never vote for the Greens. And the 12% who have or do vote Greens may continue to do so. If anything slightly positive for the Greens
“I’d be concernced that NSW plus ACT only gets Labor to 51/49 given ACT is like 60 something to Lab.”
Hmm. Depends how much polling they actually did in the ACT. Not much I’d say.
Also, the ACT is the size of Canterbury-Bankstown council. 1/20th the population of NSW. If that.
Still 51/49 is a slight decline since 2016 (I think). I also think that 4% swing isn’t going to do Labor many favours in qld, as Pepe and Brown have probably ruined labor’s chnacss in Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn. Maybe also Dickson and Pietre, given the sizeable number of auxiliary mining construction workers that are actually domiciled in those northern suburbs of brisvegas.
Hmmm. Tight.
I knew it was going to be NSW letting everyone else down…
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:27 pm
“Though, as ICanCU can probably attest, that it doesn’t matter how many hours you put into teaching your kids to drive, eventually you have to let them go out on their own.”
I worry because I remember what I did in my first few cars. We had to do 100 hours on L plates with the lad – fortunately he was able to work with me for a few months and drive me to and from work through Brisbane’s CBD peak hour which is where he really learned what an arsehole looks like but picked up a lot of driving confidence as well.
IoM says:
Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:52 pm
Considering NSW is 47 seats to ACT 3, I doubt it would be having a huge impact.
““Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
4m
If I plug those #Newspoll breakdowns into my seat model, Coalition drops 8 seats in Qld and just 3 in the rest of the country (with a pretty good chance of getting one back.)
Seems a highly unlikely scenario.“
And if Queensland IS a bust, maybe, just maybe we are staring down the barrel of the biggest federal election boilover in history. Ouch.
Seems like garbage to me…
And either Adani convoy has fucked everything or done nothing.
Honestly – outside of this place and a COUPLE of random FB posts, no one I know talked about it.
A_E you’re starting to overcorrect dear.
A 50/50 result in Qld means 5+ LNP seats to fall there – these will be partially off-set by the loss of some labor mining seats, but let’s not forget the gov is already in minority. I think Vic will see a net loss of enough LNP seats that even a worst case loss of at total 3-4 ALP seats all up from Tas, NT and NSW will not be enough to off set losses in Vic, Qld and probably WA. it’s possibly going to be closer than I’d hoped, by the LNP is still screwed.
waiting to see what Murdoch throws at Shorten. Looks like it’s not happening tonight/tomorrow AM.
NSW is the conservative State now.
Look at the Marriage Survey results. That’s in Labor areas.
Add traditional conservative seats to that and labor has an uphill battle in NSW.
It’s to their credit they are doing so well.
Andrew_Earlwood – from what I’ve heard from Labor people, I’m not expecting a Lib boilover, I wouldn’t worry. More like 80-82 seats in total, but not 8 from QLD.
Little Johnny looks after his own ESPECIALLY if they’re a paedophile!
guytaur @ #1342 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 11:04 pm
I think the state level corruption has tarnished the labour brand for swinging voters for a long time to come.
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/movies/screen-legend-doris-day-has-died/news-story/2906acafec6e9230c577cce559e1a25e
Doris Day dies aged 97.
Fozzie Logic – I read that headline as “Battler for Warringah” and nearly choked on my coffee!
Doris Day has died.
Anyone who isn’t a coal hugger knows the Qld Labor Government is doing a great job. We may be surprised at the Qld result.
What a bunch of nervous nellies. This is old data anyway. Tingle on 7.30 tonight said the lib strategists are telling her that they will lose 10-15 seats. This puts ALP at 79 to 84 seats. This should not really come as a surprise to anyone who has been watching the polls. Check out bludger track for the last several months!
As all the narrative is currently with Labor we can hope for more than that as the undecideds break. Also the insurgency from the Greens in Vic – may reduce Lib PV but not necessarily raise Labor’s
“Seems like garbage to me…
And either Adani convoy has fucked everything or done nothing.
Honestly – outside of this place and a COUPLE of random FB posts, no one I know talked about it.
A_E you’re starting to overcorrect dear.”
There is nothing inconsistent with there being a 4% state wide swing, yet labor’s chances in the marginals that are bunched together in the one region being a bust. Nothing at all.
I’m hoping that Labor picks up 2-3 in the south east corner of Queensland to counterbalance the rest of the state. Maybe Forde. Maybe those north BRisbane suburbs seats. Maybe even Brisbane itself as a bolter: but it is is possible that a 4% swing gives no net gains at all.