Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. nath says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:54 pm
    I thought Yabba was in Mensa.
    ————————–
    For fucks sake nath don’t start me on those cock grippers at Menza. I have spent half a day on prepoll with the increasingly unhinged liberal turds and then self medicated at home.
    One night back in the 1990s a nutter crashed his ute through the front window of our local ALP state members office and came in with a rifle. Our state member being a sensible type ran out the back door. The Nutter got a few years in the clink. He has now reappeared handing out HTVs for the liberals at the local prepoll. Try to tell me tell are not ratbags.

  2. I was wondering today whether the Coalition might have snuck back again if they had left Turnbull in charge, but just now I saw the headline of Bolt’s Herald-Sun column –

    Newspoll has Labor still ahead 51 per cent to 49. One Nation just 4 per cent. Bill Shorten’s popularity up, the Liberals’ primary vote up. This could have been won by the Liberals, had Malcolm Turnbull been dumped earlier

    So there you have it.

    And I see the Courier-Mail’s big headline story has basically disappeared without trace.

    What’s next from Murdoch?

  3. If and that polling regarding primary vote collapse is correct. We are looking at a real landslide election win for Labor.

  4. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 9:57 pm
    Burgey

    One thing I’ll give Barry Goldwater credit for – in 1972 when the Democratic nominee George McGovern lost in a landslide to Nixon, Goldwater was one of the first to ring him. Apparently he said words to the effect of “If you lose, lose big – otherwise no-one will remember
    ——————————–
    McGovern lost because he opposed the Vietnam war. History may judge him well for that.

  5. IOM

    Yes I was surprised too.

    Maybe a mixup by panellist of which poll.
    If it is Essential I don’t recall them doing seat polls could be my bad

  6. Bolt: “This could have been won by the Liberals, had Malcolm Turnbull been dumped earlier”

    yep – the Polls are finally possibly back to where they were when the libs dumped Turnbull, but dumping him was the right thing to do. Bolt’s narrative is going to be “If Turnbull hadn’t dumped Abbott the LNP would have been in power for a decade. If Dutton had become PM, the LNP would have been in power forever.”

    because: The Base

  7. Helen Haines seems like a great candidate. Frank, open, honest.

    If there was an indie in this electorate of her calabre I’d have given them my 2nd preference.

  8. IoM

    The poll Sprocket linked to is the correct one. As far as I can determine. It also says Labor could win.

    Edit: Either way. That’s a political shockwave of a loss

  9. Courier Mail silliness. More than 1/3 of voters say the Adani convoy makes them less likely to vote for Greens and only 12% say more likely. Sounds like 50% of people asked thought the question was a bit irrelevant.

    The Greens would be very pleased with the free publicity being offered by the CM. As you were.

  10. Paul Murray Live slagging off the Greens commissioned poll in Higgins. Probably fair enough as well … except … this was immediately after Murray reviewed the Steggall vs Abbott showdown in Warringah with a “50/50” screenshot with the source being … the Liberal Party.

    Fuck. Me. Dead.

    Pot. Kettle. … fuck it. Why bother even pointing out the beyond parody absurdity of this.

  11. Peter Stanton

    I think Goldwater also said to McGovern it was worth losing for what you believed in.

    I was surprised a few years ago to find that Goldwater has a bit of a cult following among Republicans.

    And of course Hillary Clinton who was 17 years old supported him!

  12. Ah, “the base”. The problem for the Liberals is that they haven’t worked out that the base consists of the people for vote for them in an election. They are transfixed by the people who vote for them in preselections, most of whom seem to come from a political equivalent of the Oort Cloud.

  13. A_E

    That Higgins poll even on a sample of 400 spells trouble for the Liberals if Labor+Greens are nearly 60%

    Much worse for the Liberals than the Labor+Greens+Yates = 46% in that Kooyong poll.

  14. One doesn’t need a Courier Mail poll to tell one that Brown an Pepe stinking up the joint has done great damage … to the Labor party.

    Before the two amigos turned up the likes of Christiansen and Laundy were sullen shadows. The spring in their step and the joy on their faces when the EV road show passed through makes one think that they actually paid those two narcissists to pull off that stunt. Both will now be returned comfortably. Thanks Pepe. You fucking inner city flog.

  15. Interesting that ABC Vote Compass finds the people answering survey showed Boothby was the most left leaning electorate held by the LNP. A non random sample of about 8% of electorate – 1.2m hits so about 8000 per electorate.

  16. Reading between the lines…

    If News Ltd tabloids are benign to Labor this week then I think you can take that as recognition from News Ltd that the election is lost for Morrison and that they are in damage control mode.

    From what I’ve seen today, the coverage so far fits that picture.

  17. Thanks, BH and ICanCU. 🙂

    I just told him as he was getting into bed, ‘thank goodness I’m not just coming back from visiting you at the hospital tonight!’

    Though, as ICanCU can probably attest, that it doesn’t matter how many hours you put into teaching your kids to drive, eventually you have to let them go out on their own. Under all conditions. However, it’s important that they do all the hours, Night, Day, Freeway, Country Roads, that their log book tells them to before they take their test, even though more than a few of them would love their parents to not enforce every single hour of it.

    However, it’s having done it that prepares them, if only just a little, for situations like what happened last night to my son where he was able at least to prevent worse happening, due to his, limited, experience.

  18. Observer @ #1243 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 10:05 pm

    Plus there are costs to the transaction being legals, document preparation

    About $1500 or so.

    Valuation Fee, Loan Approval Fees

    If your lender doesn’t waive these outright, you’re not trying hard enough.

    Stamp Duty on the Transfer (discounted in some jurisdictions)

    I think this is waived (or steeply discounted) for first-time buyers.

    and Registration Fees

    A few hundred dollars. Meh.

    So really, for a first home buyer those up-front costs shouldn’t exceed one month’s loan repayments. If they can’t make that comfortably, they probably aren’t ready for a mortgage.

    Then you have to take out Insurance on the property (where those costs go up and up)

    Then we have interest rates at historical lows – so they will go up

    Those are better points. Especially the second one.

    This policy is Fool’s Gold to people not rich enough to enter into the transaction they are entering into

    I agree, it’s not a great policy. At best it does not much at all, at worst it just hands taxpayer funds to the banks when rates go up and loans start getting called in.

    But everyone should be “rich enough” to buy a house. That a lot of people aren’t is mostly down to investors/speculators driving up prices and squeezing out new entrants. That’s a legitimate problem that needs fixing, and has nothing to do with people who want a house but can’t afford one at today’s prices. Prices need to fall. Investors need to settle for something less than what they’re getting now.

    People living outside their means – and being encouraged to do so by government

    Disgraceful and irresponsible

    Nah. It’s the investors that caused the problem, not the people who want houses to live in. It’s appropriate for the government to help them out. Or whack investors over the head. Or both, concurrently.

  19. What happens to the Liberals if the Higgins poll is even vaguely correct & the result is spread stage wide?

    That Liberal losses comment to Tingle might be just for Victoria

  20. “That Higgins poll even on a sample of 400 spells trouble for the Liberals if Labor+Greens are nearly 60%“

    Shenanigans to that poll. A face to face wunderwaffe. What bollocks. Anyhoo, that was not my point.

  21. Plibersek says Labor would recall the funding from the GBRF and redirect it to more effective targets. Looking forward to that 🙂

  22. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1271 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 10:22 pm

    Paul Murray Live slagging off the Greens commissioned poll in Higgins. Probably fair enough as well … except … this was immediately after Murray reviewed the Steggall vs Abbott showdown in Warringah with a “50/50” screenshot with the source being … the Liberal Party.

    Fuck. Me. Dead.

    Pot. Kettle. … fuck it. Why bother even pointing out the beyond parody absurdity of this.

    You’d think they’d get embarrassed coming out with all that guff. But no.

  23. Sceptic

    I think it makes any chance of a Coalition majority government zero. Would love 52-48’s from Essential and Ipsos and another bad seat poll in Warringah to really get this concept out there.

    If the Coalition look like they cannot get a majority it will harm their vote.

  24. For people wondering about SUS at sportsbet. Yes it means suspended.
    You will usually see it where there is an element of uncertainty that they can’t price.
    Most of the time this will be from sudden rumours of a key player getting injured in training, a horse pulling up lame before a big race, a brownlow contender facing a judiciary hearing, etc.

    In this case it is probably based on rumours of internal polling or seat poll about to be released.
    It could even be based on a big movement in markets offered by other betting agencies that may give scope to opportunities to profiteer from pricing arbitrage.
    Betting agencies are not there to give people risk free money. If they can’t price their risk properly they won’t be standing by ildly while punters take advantage.

  25. She’s a motor mouth like scomo fess, I guess she’s better than the Tories winning the seat back.
    Di Natali, as ever, is an opportunist.

  26. Andrew Earlwood absolutely right on the effect of the bumbling, meddling imbo Bob Brown and his convoy of no consequence. Massive own goal in those Qld seats. No wonder they can’t get above 10%.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood @ 10:26 pm

    Unfortunately there are some people for whom the drama of protest is an end in itself, and whether it helps any cause, even their own, is of secondary importance at best. The idiot who tried to egg the PM is probably one of them.

  28. Spence says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:26 pm

    Interesting that ABC Vote Compass finds the people answering survey showed Boothby was the most left leaning electorate held by the LNP. A non random sample of about 8% of electorate – 1.2m hits so about 8000 per electorate.

    I’m not too surprised with that considering the electorate covers the coastal suburbs from Glenelg to Seacliff where beach erosion has been a major issue for more than 50 years, and then up into the Adelaide Hills around Eden Hills, Blackwood, Belair and the like.

    So even the more affluent areas have long been aware of environmental issues effecting them.

  29. Sorry fellow Labor supporters, but Tanya is having a shocker of a night.

    She is so tongue tied trying not to upset anyone, or provide a sound bite for ScoMo tomorrow morning, that she hasn’t said a word all night that makes a lick of sense.

    Di Natale and the lady ftom Indii are getting all the applause, and rightly so.

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