Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Improvement for Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, but otherwise a steady result from Newspoll – which also offers seat polls supporting talk of tight races in Herbert, Corangamite, Bass and Lindsay.

Courtesy of The Australian, what I presume will be the second last Newspoll for the campaign records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%. The Greens are steady on 9%, One Nation down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party steady on 4%.

Talk of a good week for Bill Shorten last week may not have made much different on voting intention, but his personal ratings are significantly improved, with a four point lift on approval to 39% and a four point drop on disapproval to 49%. He now trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by 45-38, down from 46-35. Morrison’s own ratings are little changed, with approval steady on 44% and disapproval down one to 44%. The poll was slightly unusual in its field work period in being conducted from Thursday to Saturday, where usually it continues to Sunday, and its 1644 sample is consistent with Newspoll’s normal form, but not with its earlier campaign polls, which ran to around 2000.

Also from Newspoll today, the following seat polls:

Herbert (Labor 0.0%) The LNP leads 52-48, a swing in their favour of 2.0%. Primary votes are LNP 35% (up four on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 35.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 30% (up one, 30.5% in 2016), Greens 7% (up two, 6.3% in 2016), Katter’s Australian Party 13% (up three, 6.9% in 2016), One Nation 7% (down two, 13.5% in 2016), and the United Australia Party 14% (down seven, interestingly enough). Sample: 550.

Lindsay (Labor 1.1%) Liberals lead 52-48, a swing in their favour of 3.1%. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (up three on an earlier poll on April 20, and compared with 39.3% at the 2016 election), Labor 39% (up one, 41.1% in 2016), Greens 4% (steady, 3.6% in 2016), United Australia Party 6% (down one). Sample: 577.

Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%): Labor leads 51-48, a swing in its favour of 1.0%. Primary votes are Liberal 42% (43.7% in 2016), Labor 37% (34.1%), Greens 10% (12.1%) and United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 573.

Bass (Labor 5.4%): Labor leads 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of 3.4%. Primary votes are Liberal 40% (39.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (39.7%), Greens 10% (11.1%), United Australia Party 4% and Nationals 2%. Sample: 503.

There should also be a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Boothby coming through around noon, courtesy of The Advertiser, so stay tuned for that. And as usual there is below this one Seat du jour, today dealing with the Brisbane seat of Petrie.

I also had two paywalled pieces for Crikey last week. From Friday:

As psephological blogger Mark the Ballot points out, the chances of at least a mild outlier failing to emerge reduces to just about zero once you reach the sixth or seventh poll — never mind the ten we actually have seen during the campaign so far, plus a couple of others that preceded it if you want to stretch the point even further. One possibility is that we are witnessing the natural tendency in us all to seek safety in numbers, which in the polling game is known as herding.

From Wednesday:

In the United States, debates about early voting occur against a broader backdrop of partisan warfare over voter suppression. Democrats favour longer periods to facilitate ease of voting and Republicans oppose them, reflecting the fact that conservative voters are on balance wealthier and have greater flexibility with their time. In Australia though, Crikey’s own Bernard Keane was almost a lone wolf last week in arguing against the notion that democracy loses something if voters are not appraised of the full gamut of parties’ campaign pitches before making their choice.

UPDATE: The Advertiser has just unloaded its promised YouGov Galaxy poll from Boothby, which shows Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her current margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520.

The poll also finds Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 49-36 as preferred prime minister; 29% saying replacing Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, 34% less likely and 33% no difference; and 37% saying they were less likely to vote Labor because of franking credits and capital gains tax, compared with 24% for more likely and 32% for no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,411 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I am finding hard to reconcile the low Greens vote in the latest Boothby seat poll (9%) with the poll issued the day before (in the same paper) that oil drilling in the Bight is of massive concern to voters there.

    Boothby Baby Boomers’ growing green guilt Federal Election Baby Boomer green guilt in the state’s most – The Advertiser › news
    “Baby Boomer green guilt in the state’s most marginal seat could explain a 70 per cent voter commitment for the political party most prepared to stop oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight.”

    The Greens got 8.3% last election, but that was in a seat with a large NXT vote (who are not standing here this time) and the Greens have done much better than 9% in elections prior.

    Have the Greens simply been squeezed out? Poor campaigning or poor candidate?

    Perhaps we could expect this to be a campaign issue in SA over the next few days.

  2. NSW has corruption on both sides of politics, the electorate knows its.
    Look the Libs weren’t expected to lose a bunch of seats in NSW last time, but did, and they even lost eden monaro.. which was a bells whether seat.

  3. I thought Plibersek was impressive

    Didn’t need to engage in the argy bargy on the basis that public perception of the opposition to her was what it was ( including by the moderator)

    Just refute and call out

    No need to argue

    Plibersek will represent a government – not a minority party on the Cross Bench or as an individual on the Cross Bench

    So you mark her against Birmingham (because he represents the alternate government)

    No doubt the bias of Green supporters sees her attacked by reflex

  4. “Have the Greens simply been squeezed out? ”

    I’m coming to the conclusion that people are concerned about the environment, but not more than any other thing. Seems to be the only explanation for voting patterns.

    Any other issue is enough to make people vote against their concern for the environment.

  5. ICANCU @ #1339 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 11:14 pm

    Anyone who isn’t a coal hugger knows the Qld Labor Government is doing a great job. We may be surprised at the Qld result.

    At the state level Palaszczuk showed how. Andrews followed and hopefully McGowan will too. Start small if you have to, but govern well. If Shorten starts down that path on Saturday I’ll be content.

  6. I suspect that the over the top shouting by the RWNJs based in Qld and the LNP being in bed with them would be enough to make a lot of people vote for some stability. If the swing is not occurring in the north then it will be occurring in the south for similar effect. But the Qld state election suggests that the north will also be seeing some changes.

  7. Just Quietly – Peter Brent (and maybe others) pointed out a while back that the more people who are enrolled at the margins, the higher the rate of non voting seems to be. This was in response to automatic enrolments, which I recall prompted some speculation in 2013 that it would save the Labor govt or just throw out polling in some way. It did nothing of the sort. Of those people who aren’t usually motivated to vote but who ended up on the roll, a higher proportion than usual didn’t turn up (perhaps reflected in higher informal rates too), and when they did it didn’t seem to affect the result in any particular way.

    I’m tipping the same for people who got motivated to enrol only for for the SSM survey, yes it was a one shot issue most young people agreed with, but that doesn’t mean they are motivated now, or predict how they’ll vote if they do. Don’t expect it to make much detectable difference in a regular election.

  8. Maybe people are realising that if you want action on environmental issues, you need a Government that’s willing to act and the Greens won’t form a Government.

  9. “Are you the X1/9 of PB – prone to massive oversteer?”

    I still love that car. Sigh. One day I’m going to buy one again a project car: probably put a 200kw donk in it … and some actual brakes ..

  10. Barney in Saigon @ #1366 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 11:30 pm

    Maybe people are realising that if you want action on environmental issues, you need a Government that’s willing to act and the Greens won’t form a Government.

    Let’s get things started and push for the best outcome going forward with input from the Greens.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 10:26 pm
    One doesn’t need a Courier Mail poll to tell one that Brown an Pepe stinking up the joint has done great damage … to the Labor party.

    Before the two amigos turned up the likes of Christiansen and Laundy were sullen shadows. The spring in their step and the joy on their faces when the EV road show passed through makes one think that they actually paid those two narcissists to pull off that stunt. Both will now be returned comfortably. Thanks Pepe. You fucking inner city flog.

    Sorry to be obtuse Andrew. But who the hell is this Pepe you keep talking about?

  12. The state breakdowns are pretty much in line with Btrack. Labor down a bit in NSW and more in SA, up a bit in Vic and WA and same in Qld.

    AE – you would find it very hard to get a 4% swing in Qld and not get a handful of seats changing.

  13. New republic says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 11:34 pm

    Barney in Saigon @ #1366 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 11:30 pm

    Maybe people are realising that if you want action on environmental issues, you need a Government that’s willing to act and the Greens won’t form a Government.

    Let’s get things started and push for the best outcome going forward with input from the Greens.

    That all depends on whether the Greens want to be constructive players or not.

  14. The Newspoll state numbers are useless without being put in context against the 2016 election results:

    NSW&ACT 51/49 Lib; was 49.9/50.1, ALP -1.1
    Vic 54/46 Lab; was 51.8/48.2, ALP +2.2
    Qld 50/50; was 54.1/45.9, ALP +4.1
    WA 52/48 Lib; was 54.7/45.3, ALP +2.7
    SA 52/48 Lab; was 52.3/47.7, ALP -0.3

    If I weight all of those numbers by population, I get a predicted national swing to Labor of +1.33% since 2016. Which puts them pretty much dead on a 51/49 victory, which seems a bit low given that the actual polling average seems to be in the 51.5 to 52.0 range.

    Labor has about another 0.7% hiding somewhere in there. Perhaps it’s all in NSW.

  15. Barney in Saigon @ #1369 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 11:45 pm

    New republic says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 11:34 pm

    Barney in Saigon @ #1366 Monday, May 13th, 2019 – 11:30 pm

    Maybe people are realising that if you want action on environmental issues, you need a Government that’s willing to act and the Greens won’t form a Government.

    Let’s get things started and push for the best outcome going forward with input from the Greens.

    That all depends on whether the Greens want to be constructive players or not.

    Agreed… but would you rather deal with the Libs Nats or RWNJs?

  16. Quelle surprise!

    The first some members of cabinet heard about the plan, which will see the government effectively guarantee a portion of loans taken out by first time buyers, was when Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced it during the Coalition’s election campaign launch on Sunday.

    So it was from the Morrison Party, not the Liberals, not the Coalition.

    I wonder who told reporter Shane Wright?

  17. %3Fitemid%3D10814922&

    Greens leader Pepe Le Pew taking a walk through regional Queensland …

  18. Chris:

    I think Morris flight to Perth for an hour and then back to Sydney, is a sign of panic. He can’t trust any of his ministers as in his eyes he is the only one who can save the election. There polls must be bad

    Elizabeth Holmes the Theranos Fraudster took to flying back and forth across the US alone in a private jet as the authorities were closing in

  19. The Guardian suggesting a poll showing Jay Ball may take Higgins after all!

    Even though I’m not a Greens supporter, I know Jay and if I were in that electorate I would vote for him.

  20. Honestly A_E you run with the Hares and the Hounds. You need to take a deep breath, slow down and stop over reading everything.
    Those figures are aggregated from 5 Newspolls and the NSW figures will represent fallout from the recent state election. It’s a no brainer.
    How those figures are now for NSW is largely unknown, but I bet a lot different.
    As to the Adani convoy you over read that as well, the CM has you boxing at shadows. You have no idea what the real effect is in all those seats. That Galaxy poll does not confirm what you are saying.
    My bet, no big upside for the LNP beyond the normal LNP voting pattern. Any swing happening in Queensland is still happening, and by the looks of it, it will be nasty.
    IMHO the ALP is still winning this election it is just a matter of how many seats.
    So take a chill pill and go to bed, you’ll feel better with a new day.

  21. a r – the Newspoll state figures would have their current preference assumptions built in just like the nation polls they are drawn from, they aren’t using last election preference TPP figures. That’s where the 0.5 or 0.7 went.

  22. A_E,

    I do understand. My weakness is for the Celica TA22. Got one when I was 15, restored it and drove it for about 7 years before it was declared unroadworthy. Which was fair enough too.

  23. Labor not a lot of luck with donkey vote. Of seats to watch I check 23 LNP donkey, 7 ALP and Higgins Greens. On average 1 seat at least decided by donkey – last time it was Herbert to ALP.

  24. what to make of that “religious freedom” stunt by church leaders yeserday

    is this there only contribution to election and contemp world

    what is the problem with freedom ? do they want parties to legislate religious belief?
    or pronounce belief of leaders like morrison does?

    religious education in this country is perhaps most privileged in whole world

  25. “Spence says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 12:20 am
    Labor not a lot of luck with donkey vote. Of seats to watch I check 23 LNP donkey, 7 ALP and Higgins Greens.”

    That seems to match the candidates profiles. More LNP donkeys than elsewhere (but all have a few).

    How real is the “donkey vote”? Also, as opposed to the “reverse donkey vote”?

  26. Re NSW, it would be interesting to know what the “other” PV is there.

    NSW seems ground zero for big independent challenger seats. If they are being allocated 5050 then that could be significantly skewing those results.

  27. Ghost posted primary votes from quarterly breakdowns and they look promising for ALP. 2PP calculations look a bit off to me.

  28. I have never sen such a variation between the betting markets and the polls. Either the liberal odds are fantastic value or the polls are about 2-3% out (in labor’a favour). Individual seat market odds seem to indicate the latter.
    The other possibility is that the national swing is will be wildly uneven and labor will get the swings in key marginals that is needs.
    Still can’t believe it is this close after you go back to the state of play late last year.

  29. That Steve Irons over the top, insane and irrational attack on people asking him polite questions, has been turned by SBS news online into him defending his wife from verbal abuse.

    Pity they didn’t show the video of the frazzled buffoon in action!

  30. VIC Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-5.8 since election) ALP 41 (+5.4) GRN 9 (-4.1) ON 4 (+4.0) Others 10 (+0.5)

    NSW & ACT Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (-0.9 since election) ALP 35 (-2.3) GRN 8 (-1.3) ON 5 (+4.4) Others 11 (+0.1)

    QLD Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-7.2 since election) ALP 33 (+2.1) GRN 9 (+0.2) ON 11 (+5.5) Others 11 (-0.6)

    WA Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (-7.7 since election) ALP 33 (+0.6) GRN 10 (-2.1) ON 4 (+4.0) Others 12 (+5.2)

    SA Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (+2.9 since election) ALP 38 (+6.5) GRN 9 (+2.8) ON 3 (+3.0) Others 12 (-15.2)

  31. ltep says:
    Monday, May 13, 2019 at 7:49 pm

    Nath is the Steven Bradbury of pollbludger apparently. Fun fact, he has an Order of Australia medal, but then who doesn’t?

    Good point. The significance of the Order of Australia has been diluted so much, that the original intent of these awards has been cheapened if not lost.

    The huge number of awards each year should be cut back by insisting that recipients be honored for real achievements or contributions at the “national” or international level. Regional or local work, as worthy as it is, should be recognized by state awards such as the Order of New South Wales, et al.

    Except in extraordinary circumstances, you shouldn’t get the Order of Australia, just for doing your “day job.” They should also not be used to honor “celebrity” unless the recipient has made an additional significant contribution to Australia or the world.

    The present system, with four levels of awards should be reduced to three: Companion, Officer and Member for contributions at the national or international level. The present level of Medal, 755 were awarded this year, should be taken up by state awards. I don’t think that “contributions to badminton in Woop Woop” deserves national recognition.

    In the first 50 years of the Order of Canada, an average of only 138 awards were made annually for that country of 35 million. Australia, with two thirds that population averaged 326 awards, with an additional 700 Medals each year.

    “The original three-level structure of the Order of Australia was modelled closely upon the Order of Canada, though the Order of Australia has been awarded rather more liberally, especially in regard to honorary awards to foreigners. To date, only 24 non-Canadians have been appointed to the Order of Canada, while more than 390 non-Australians have been appointed to the Order of Australia, with 40 to the “Companion” level.” (Wikipedia)

  32. Nasty black – ops by someone in Cowan:

    Unfortunately very similar to what happened to Cameron Murphy in the NSWstate seat of East Hills in 2015. A Liberal staffer was eventually charged, but the smear campaign did a lot of harm.

    Same thing happened to Ed Husic the first time he ran for his seat, centered on the Hill’s district in Western Sydney. The opponent was a Pentecostal (Hillsong I am pretty sure) member. Campaign saying that he was a Muslim and would introduce god only knows what ……

  33. I used to live in Cowan, it wasn’t very multicultural or racially sensitive back then but I’m not sure if it has changed.

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