Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.
There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.
In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.
The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.
Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.
Bill Shorten has hit the right buttons at the right time.
I can only figure that he had it planned long ago.
Side note: It’ll be sad to see Doug Cameron go. A true champion of the timber mill saw operator 😉
Now it is Bridgit McKenzie and Kenny. Seems a Shorten government is the ‘biggest threat in a generation” .
Steve777 @ #96 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 7:32 pm
A lot of young people have also grown up with kids from a range of cultural backgrounds, more so than in the past. I think they are on average likely to be much less racist.
LR
Put my bid in Last night.
I went for 52/48 to ALP.
Keyman @ #93 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:30 pm
Very unlikely. If she’s elected then she’ll have done so as an independent. No greater way of trashing your brand as an indie than getting into bed with a major party. Just as Oakeshott and Windsor.
Keyman says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:30 pm
Why would she?
How are they similar anyway?
Red13 @ #104 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 7:38 pm
(Sorry. I’ve been out.) Was that for Newspoll?
poroti:
Sounds like Sky After Dark has ratcheted up the hysteria to Eleventy Plus.
I think if the Greens were likely to pick up any seats we would have well and truly heard about it. If any seat’s a target for them it would actually be Higgins rather than any ALP seat.
Are Sky realizing you can’t put lipstick on a pig?
I am both gay and part Neanderthal (3%).
I am really really over the offensive prejudice against Neanderthals on this site!
You can put lipstick on a pig.
Its just that it won’t help and the pig won’t like you.
And of course the Greens picking up ALP seats would assume that Ipsos is accurate and that the 14% support is concentrated in Victoria which Bludgertrack doesn’t appear to agree with.
Yep add Higgins as well. 5 seat fortress!
BK @ #72 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 7:17 pm
I thought it was 2.9% but whatever. That’s a huge error. This is why polling in this country is soooo hit and miss.
Dave from Wagga @ #51 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 7:05 pm
Yeah nah get fucked.
Australia has been going backwards for the last 6 years due to shit-cunts like Abbott, Abetz, Dutton and co. Their influence on political discourse has been damaging for an entire generation.
poroti says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:37 pm
They’re right!
They’re a huge threat to the Coalition.
If they don’t fuck it up, they have the potential to be in power for a considerable time.
😆 😆 Kenny moaning “Labor aren’t doing much media on this channel” .
swamprat I’m reminded of the dialogue from Jupiter Ascending..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTBkqodlnEw
Dave
Very sad that we won’t be hearing Doug Cameron’s Scottish brogue any more in Parliament. But I am sure he’ll be happy to leave the new team in charge if Labor win as expected.
Will she suddenly piss away any electoral appeal she’d have as an independent to become a faceless MP of a political party who will likely get preselected out at the next election because the party branch members don’t trust her. If she’s smart, no.
Gichuhi has suffered a similar fate due to what she thought was a clever move.
I am straight and part fairy.
But not the bottom of the garden variety.
swamprat
says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:43 pm
I am both gay and part Neanderthal (3%).
_____________________________
PB comment of the day award.
Very puzzling report of a discussion between David Briggs from Galaxy and a local 6PR operative Jane Marwick this afternoon apparently, in which he is reported to have said…………….that his poll “of more than 1500 voters showed disaffected Liberal voters weren’t shifting to Labor”. Further, that the decline in the Liberal vote (which matched the increase in the Labor one in 2/3 of the seats) came, according to him, from the Greens. He added that he was surprised Ann Aly’s vote was not higher and concluded, apparently, suggesting the sitting members will retain Cowan, Swan and Pearce. Now, if this is the case, then Hasluck (not polled) is the only seat Labor can look forward to in WA. This sobering news if this happens……..it is at odds with what I have heard WB say on interview and seems to be counter intuitive. What I can’t understand is the the comment about a ‘poll of 1500 people’ which may have been true it toto, but as William has noted, just over 500 in each of the 3 electorates, and, as I have understood, the margin for error can be up to 5%. The author of the report is one Nathan Hondros on WA Today website.
poroti @ #115 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:47 pm
Barrie Cassidy should send him that clip of Gillard accusing him of behaving like a jilted lover when he complained about Rudd ditching Insiders.
The biggest worry is that the Libs won’t learn anything from their imminent demise.
The great Shorten experiment with his consequential public policies will be tested by the forthcoming dysfunctional Senate.
It will be a Government with a mandate, but under constant political pressure. Penny Wong will be the crucial player.
For the Liberals it will be mayhem. It will go on and on – a fight for why they really exist. It won’t be settled.
By the way Boerwar…………………Moi, Green! You must be colour blind, Orange Man!
poroti
Kenny moaning “Labor aren’t doing much media on this channel” .
Did he say this with a straight face?
And by the way – have you recovered from the Jim Molan ‘drone’ attack?
“Will zali steggall if elected suddenly awaken and join the Libs as did Lucy Muringo Gichuhi?”
Independents who get elected as independents generally get re-elected if they are good local members. Australian Conservatives and the Family First are different. They are basically “Liberals” without social liberals / ‘moderates’. But centrists tend to stick around if they’re any good.
And as others have pointed out, a losing “Liberal” party will be a warring rabble.
poroti says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:47 pm
Labor aren’t doing much media after 6pm on this channel”
Fixed it for Chris!
Nath,
So you dispute Bludgertrack showing the Greens losing 3.6% since 2016 in Victoria? Gaining 4 seats while losing support statewide is a very heroic prediction…
“The Abbott-Latham Hour!”
😀
Dumb and dumber cage fighting.
So Labor’s PV is 33% ? I’m calling bullshit on that.
My biggest fear is in regional north and central Queensland. The failure to pick up Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson, Capricornia and retain Herbert could really hurt Labor and be the difference from a healthy majority to a slim one.
Trouble is the Adani issue is big up there and the Newscorp rags are running hard on it to prevent Labors messege cutting through.
The fact George Christensen could still hold his seat makes my stomach turn despite all his incompetence.
And, I am, of course, a
teapot! 😉
davidwh:
Yes, that is a very real possibility, just like in 2007 when they learned nothing from that election loss.
(Another corollary with 2007 election)
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:44 pm
You can put lipstick on a pig.
Its just that it won’t help and the pig won’t like you.
_____________________________________________
One of the great Truisms of Teaching – “never try to teach a pig to sing, it’s a waste of your time and only annoys the pig”
With IPSOS I just look at the Labor+Green primary combined. 47% is comfortable territory for Labor.
Haha
Thanks……. luckily no prejudice has been yet expressed to Denisovians as i supposedly have 4.7% (0ver twice the average).
What a mongrel!!
Newspoll will straighten up the Alp primary vote.
Watch this space.
lr
from earlier today…
Murdoch ‘poll’ 50-50
Essential poll 52-48
Katich poll of real people 56-44
Morgan thing 5-5 (rounded)
NINE poll NFI-WGAF
Miss Piggy not only sang, but wore lipstick as well.
#justsayin
Confessions, touché
davidwh @ #125 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
Yep. It’ll be because they weren’t “Right” enough.
Jane Marwick will have been urging coverage favourable to the Coalition. She’s an occasional Sky After Dark (SAD) type. That said, Pearce will be very close. Porter has numerous church-based volunteers and a lot of signage being paid for by taxpayers.
The feedback I’ve had at pre-polling and doorknocking still suggests Labor is in with a real chance. That poll was on Wednesday too and I’d suspect things have moved more towards Labor since then.
On the downside if there’s protest vote all of the minors such as UAP and PHON are preferencing the Libs. At the end of the day you work as hard as can and hope the voters see where their best interests lie.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:53 pm
What, short and stout? 🙂
Rocket Rocket
Actually he was easier to listen to than the next guest, the deputy leader of the Nats speaking pure ‘talking points’. At least Molan spoke like a human being. 🙂
Bugler
says:
Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:51 pm
Nath,
So you dispute Bludgertrack showing the Greens losing 3.6% since 2016 in Victoria? Gaining 4 seats while losing support statewide is a very heroic prediction…
____________________________________
Who knows. I know that it will only take a few thousands voters to change to the Greens to take Wills and Cooper. As for the 3 way contests in Higgins and McNamara, who can really say?
swamprat
I too cringe when people cast aspersions on Neanderthals by comparing them with people like Tony Abbott or the “fossil in a baseball cap”. That ‘crossover’ time in Europe when the Neanderthals co-existed with the newer humans is a fascinating subject.
I don’t know who first started making references to “the Shorten experiment” but I wish everyone would stop using that term. It’s utterly stupid. Shorten’s election as leader wasn’t some strange, unusual risk. It was a very conventional pick and he’s a pretty conventional politician.
I know the term mostly stems from the days of the “Latham experiment” – which was a valid term because they went with someone who seemed unconventional and it would also be fair to use it for Gillard’s leadership and Rudd’s second leadership because both of those cases were the ALP rolling the dice. But it’s become a cliche term to sneer at any Labor leader who fails (or the person using the term is predicting will fail.)