Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

Two polls show Labor maintaining its modest lead, although they have different stories to tell on primary votes and leaders’ ratings.

Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.

There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.

In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.

The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.

Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. I hope Mad Monk gets re-elected.
    The misogynistic, climate change denying, swine prick toe rag neanderthal is the gift that keeps on giving for Labor.

  2. I am working on a booth (for the AEC) on May 18, but I have previous election results for my booth, and will be looking closely at that as the votes are counted on the night.

    If there is a BIG swing to the ALP in this safe ALP seat, I think there might be reason to worry. But if the swing is small then I’ll be more confident that the swings will be in the RIGHT places (ie marginal and just above marginal L/NP seats).

    Two weeks to go. I’m hoping I don’t literally wet myself in all the excitement

  3. “The Nazis included the word Socialist to appeal to the working class. It largely failed. There was a faction inside the Nazis run by the Strasser brothers who held similar positions to socialism, primarily being anti-capitalist. One brother was killed during the night of the long knives the other brother escaped Germany. So not really socialist at all. They were nationalist/racists above all else.”

    This.

    The Nazis’ main support base were lowly educated shop keepers. Folk like Craig Kelly.

  4. Don’t have much contact with young people these days, but from what I can tell they prefer to communicate via text, Facebook, What’s App and so forth. It would be difficult for pollsters to reach them by phone, especially land lines.

  5. “Wayne says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 6:58 pm
    Breaking News
    Ipsos poll
    LNP 52
    ALP 48”

    Wayne has joined Alice in stumbling through the looking glass where everything is seen in reverse.

  7. Economically, I think that the Nazis were crony capitalists, like most authoritarian regimes today.

    EDIT: “Socialists were among the first people that the National Socialists (Nazis) sent to concentration camps.”

    Yes – someone should tweet this to that nincompoop Craig Kelly.

  10. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:05 pm
    “The Nazis included the word Socialist to appeal to the working class. It largely failed. There was a faction inside the Nazis run by the Strasser brothers who held similar positions to socialism, primarily being anti-capitalist. One brother was killed during the night of the long knives the other brother escaped Germany. So not really socialist at all. They were nationalist/racists above all else.”
    This.
    The Nazis’ main support base were lowly educated shop keepers. Folk like Craig Kelly.
    ________________________________________
    As far as I know the most authoritative study on Nazi electoral matters is Who Voted For Hitler by Richard Hamilton. He demonstrated that rural areas were the strongest bastions for NSDAP support, particularly townships. In the large cities, it was actually the wealthiest areas which had the strongest support for the Nazis.

  12. I strongly suspect a 52-48 for newspoll. No exclamations from PvO or others suggests to me their chosen team may have drifted out.

  13. At my local bowling club tonight. A typical right wing mate hands me someting from some reporter in the SMH on franking credits.

    Baically it says this poor pair of pepole in their 80s are going to be $18,000 worse off under labour. After reading and reflection, I pointed out that these “poor couple” were not toucing there super at all!

    I explained that super was invented by the ALP for people to live off in retirement and what was going to happen to there super when they carked. The response was, it goes to the kids!! I said I rest my case. They are bludging off society to give the kids a leg up.

  15. Dave from Wagga says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:05 pm

    I hope Mad Monk gets re-elected.
    The misogynistic, climate change denying, swine prick toe rag neanderthal is the gift that keeps on giving for Labor.

    Good government will be the gift that keeps giving for Labor.

    There’s no place for Abbott and other disruptors, the quicker they’re gone the better for our Parliament and those who wish to see good governance.

  17. @briefly – the evidence we have is that the Greens primary vote increased by 1%. There is no evidence to suggest that Ipsos’s results are meaningless. They have a consistent, well understood skew which people can take into account. People like WB do take it into account.

    Greens vote is rising because they are Stephen Bradbury at the moment. Both Labor, the liberals, ON and Palmer have had candidates involved in scandals, and they have responded slowly and poorly.

    People mark them down for it, which means they switch to the Greens.

  18. of course, there is a big difference between Nazi electoral stats before and after 1929. The Depression forced huge numbers to the extremes of left and right. Communist and Nazis. So by the early 30s the Nazi’s were getting support from wealthy people that they never got in the 1920s. I guess that they thought that the Nazi’s were better than Communists. They could keep all their shit!

  20. I heard an interesting suggestion from a political scientist a couple of days ago, regarding bias in poll figures. He was looking at the way the polls were basically correct in NSW, but underestimated the swing to the ALP in Victoria. His thought was that if an election is a polarised one like Victoria, the difference in voting patterns between the old and the young is likely to be maximised, and under-sampling of the young is likely to produce an underestimate of the swing to the left. If, on the other hand, the competing parties are both seen as comparatively centrist, voting patterns of the young and old will be less divergent, and an under-sampling of the young might not make such a difference.

  21. I don’t care if Abbott is a continuing gift for Labor, I want Abbott and the other regressives gone from our parliament. Besides, there is clearly a mood for change in Warringah, and Zali Steggall has worked hard to represent the generational change in the electorate. In my view she deserves to be the next Member for Warringah.

  24. Greens vote is rising because they are Stephen Bradbury at the moment. Both Labor, the liberals, ON and Palmer have had candidates involved in scandals, and they have responded slowly and poorly.

    Bludgertrack greens -1% since last election

  25. Barney in Phan Thiet…..”There’s no place for Abbott and other disruptors, the quicker they’re gone the better for our Parliament and those who wish to see good governance.”……..

    Yep. I hope the people of the north shore give him a big GAGF.

  26. poroti
    says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:15 pm
    nath
    Sounds a bit like the Coalition’s support bases .
    ____________________________
    Just imagine if a certain fish and chip operative had been actually politically cunning, had some wealthy backers and that inflation hit 13999% and unemployment was 40%!!!!

  27. “I hope Mad Monk gets re-elected.
    The misogynistic, climate change denying, swine prick toe rag neanderthal is the gift that keeps on giving for Labor.”

    Nope. I want him gone. The biggest winner Abbott holding his seat on election night will be Abbott. Why would you want that?

    The reason Abbott’s struggling to hold his seat is voters well and truly believe he has outstayed his welcome and should have left at the election in 2016. The only person talking up about an Abbott revival to the leadership is Abbott.

  28. Sohar

    Monument in the centre of the Sachsenhausen Memorial Site north of Berlin dedicated to the political prisoners held and murdered at the Sachsenhausen-Oranienburg Concentration Camp (hence the inverted red triangles): mainly communists and socialists.

  29. slackboy72 @ #62 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 7:13 pm

    I strongly suspect a 52-48 for newspoll. No exclamations from PvO or others suggests to me their chosen team may have drifted out.

    Been thinking the same. From memory we’ve usually had a few vague hints from the Sky After Dark by this time of the evening. Could even be better than 52/48

  33. “I hope Mad Monk gets re-elected.
    The misogynistic, climate change denying, swine prick toe rag neanderthal is the gift that keeps on giving for Labor.”

    Nah. One of the biggest joys of the 18th is going to be him and dutton losing their seats and Tony punching someone.

    he’ll then go to Sky News for a late night slot and The Australian will report his every utterance with reverence. so he’ll keep giving, but not from parliament.

    I hope.

  34. Looks like the Greens will add to Melbourne. Wills and Cooper and McNamara. That’s a 4 seat stronghold in inner Melbourne. Hooray!

  35. Pedant @ #70 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    I heard an interesting suggestion from a political scientist a couple of days ago, regarding bias in poll figures. He was looking at the way the polls were basically correct in NSW, but underestimated the swing to the ALP in Victoria. His thought was that if an election is a polarised one like Victoria, the difference in voting patterns between the old and the young is likely to be maximised, and under-sampling of the young is likely to produce an underestimate of the swing to the left. If, on the other hand, the competing parties are both seen as comparatively centrist, voting patterns of the young and old will be less divergent, and an under-sampling of the young might not make such a difference.

    Sounds plausible but it’s a bit difficult to retrofit explanations like this with confidence. Can only hope.

  37. poroti:

    Applause for your efforts. I accidentally tuned into Rowan Dean this morning and immediately broke out in hives.

  38. “Taking one for the team I’m listening to Kenny for his hint. So far 20 minutes of Jim Molan ”

    thanks for doing this poroti – above and beyond the call of duty.

    No word on the poll is probably a hint in itself. The fogducker Kenny must be distraught.

  39. And Clive Palmer at 3% can forget a Senate spot.

    Yeah, nah, I wouldn’t be confident on that. The question that matters is what the UAP vote is in Queensland rather than the national vote.

  40. As much as I think PPM to be valueless it would be quite entertaining to see the MSM response to a big move in Shorten’s favour with NewsPoll.

  41. nath says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 7:25 pm
    Looks like the Greens will add to Melbourne. Wills and Cooper and McNamara. That’s a 4 seat stronghold in inner Melbourne. Hooray!

    DREAM ON!

  46. You would expect a polarisation between old and young this election. It’s the young who care most about effective action climate change, for which the Coalition are not merely doing nothing but actively blocking.

    And not many young people give a stuff about franking credits. Unless they’re from a wealthy family they don’t have shares. They’ve got student debt, they’re saving for a home. They don’t win investment properties but they’re subsidising those who do.

  48. Confessions

    Rowan Dean ! My sympathies 😆 Meanwhile on Kenny , Rudd and Julia turning up has really got the chickens clucking 😆

  50. Keyman @ 7.30pm

    Why would she? If the Liberals lose, their party room after the election is likely to resemble a pit of vipers. Much better to sit with a (probably enlarged) cross bench.

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