Election minus two weeks

Candidate withdrawals aplenty, and the latest semi-regular round-up of intelligence concerning the state of the campaign horse race.

First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.

Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:

• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.

• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.

• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.

• Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.

• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.

• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.

Horse race latest:

• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.

• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.

• Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.

• Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.

• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.

Self-promotion corner:

If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.

From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:

Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.

And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:

If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

676 comments on “Election minus two weeks”

Comments Page 6 of 14
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  1. Quentin Dempster
    ‏Verified account @QuentinDempster
    3h3 hours ago

    Quentin Dempster Retweeted Mitch Fifield

    Liberal informants have told me that if re-elected it is the Morrison-Pauline Hanson-Clive Palmer government’s intention to take the ABC into a dark room and smother it with a soft cushion. @SenatorFifield @MRowlandMP

  2. meher baba says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 12:40 pm

    zoomster: “Anyone affected by the changes for franking credits has known about this for yonks and already factored it into their vote. Changing the policy now would be all pain and no gain.”

    Yes, no doubt about it.

    The time to have dropped it – along with the other proposed tax changes (except perhaps the CGT discount reduction and the increase in the top marginal tax, which I think were both relatively free of risk) – was in the first few weeks after ScoMo replaced Turnbull. FWIW I suggested this on PB at the time.

    Now, for good or bad, Labor is stuck with these policies.

    And with it much of Labor’s reform agenda.

    Hmmmm!

    Well I suppose that would keep the small target fans happy.

  4. meher baba @ #250 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    Barney in Phan Thiet: “It’s a climate change election but the political party with the utmost ambition on climate – yes, the Greens – is somehow on the outer. Flagging in the polls, cold-shouldered by Labor, the Greens have spent the campaign jostling elbows with a bunch of high-profile independents in the inner cities and battling the alt-right in the Senate.”

    It’s what happens when you abandon your core brand and adopt the brand of one of your competitors: in this case the Socialist Alliance. It’s taken a while for the punters to pick up on this, but the internal party brawls have brought it into the spotlight.

    The Greens have dominated their federal election campaign with environment policy specifically the Adani issue.

  5. @Victoria

    Corbyn is leader of a major party, an Austraian version of him in the Greens would turn the Greens from a minor into a potentially major party.

  8. Zoidlord @ #250 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 12:46 pm

    Quentin Dempster
    ‏Verified account @QuentinDempster
    3h3 hours ago

    Quentin Dempster Retweeted Mitch Fifield

    Liberal informants have told me that if re-elected it is the Morrison-Pauline Hanson-Clive Palmer government’s intention to take the ABC into a dark room and smother it with a soft cushion. @SenatorFifield @MRowlandMP

    Labor need to run that in every regional town, village in Oz.

    Some very interesting comments were made on ABC24 ‘after the debate’ conflab last night. One was to run all the nasties that the IPA have already achieved and the intended ones including the ABC decimation.

    James Campbell (Herald Sun – gawd, I actually listened to a Murdoch journo) said that Labor hasn’t run enough of the specific failures of the MTA Govts and if they want to win well should start doing it. Sally McManus agreed. Voters need reminding of the past chaotic misdeeds or wtte

    Hopefully Sally will pass it on. I thought Michael Daley missed out by only focussing on the Sydney Stadium. He missed a lot of opportunities and Gladys left him in her wake.

  9. Tristo says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 12:49 pm

    @Victoria

    I disagree right now, I reckon he is odds on favorite to win the next UK generation. Especially that the Tory party is hopelessly split on Brexit. While Labor did poorly in the recent local council in Leave voting councils in the North. They did well in councils which are covered by marginal electorates.

    If the Lib Dem rebirth continues it’s highly unlikely anyone will “win” the next election.

    Admittedly they’d most probably side with Labor, considering their romance with the Tory’s nearly led to their extinction.

  10. SCOUT: “Which is it meher baba good or bad?”

    If you mean franking credits, then of course they have to go: they are costing a bomb to the bottom line. However, as I posted yesterday, I think they should be phased out rather than abolished suddenly.

    When they were introduced, I don’t think anyone in government or opposition appreciated just how many people would qualify for them and how much it would cost. And these facts remained hidden from view over the following years. I know several retired people who had been receiving franking credits but hadn’t realised the fact until Labor announced its policy. Their accountants knew all about it, but they never understood what they were getting.

    Labor still didn’t realise when they announced their policy, with Shorten stating that it would affect “only a small number of shareholders”. They thought they were withdrawing something from a small group of really rich people, when the fact is that the credits are being received a large group of mostly retired people who would by no means consider themselves to be rich. Some of these people are going to have their incomes unexpectedly reduced by 20 per cent or more. Of course they’re angry: anyone would be in those circumstances: think of the people affected by the changes to penalty rates.

    When you want to introduce an adjustment that affects a very large number of people, some of them quite adversely, I think you are beholden to do it gradually. The way to go would be to grandfather the credits to existing shareholdings, plus an upper limit on the amount that can be claimed: AE’s suggestion of $20k per annum seems reasonable to me.

    Labor has backed itself into a bit of a corner with this policy. They quickly agreed to exempt pensioners and part-pensioners, and then ill-advisedly decided to hold the line at that point. It’s not something any party in government would do when faced with these circumstances, but Labor was concerned that backing down further would make them look bad.

    But not backing down left them with great difficulties in explaining why they were doing what they were doing, culminating in Bowen’s bad hair day when he suggested that people who didn’t like it could vote Liberal.

    Incidentally, I’ve noticed that Bowen has been rather invisible during this campaign so far: when compared, say, to Frydenberg or, for that matter, Keneally or Plibersek.

  11. Catching up from this morning
    Nicholas
    If it is unfair for female athletes with high testosterone to compete against females with lower testosterone – is it equally unfair for males with high testosterone to compete against males with low testosterone?

  13. phylactella: “is it equally unfair for males with high testosterone to compete against males with low testosterone?”

    Sad story of most of my Saturday nights at the pub as a younger man.

  15. @meher baba
    TBH. Boo Hoo!, Sell the shares.
    20% of their income from franking credit rebates? What kind of $ figure is that? Seeing as they don’t qualify for a pension is that ‘20%’ a larger figure than the typical newstart benefit?

  16. Again, let’s maybe wait until Corbyn wins/loses the next election before we start talking about what an electoral genius/disaster for the UK Labour Party he is.

  17. meher baba @ #261 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    SCOUT: “Which is it meher baba good or bad?”

    If you mean franking credits, then of course they have to go: they are costing a bomb to the bottom line. However, as I posted yesterday, I think they should be phased out rather than abolished suddenly.

    When they were introduced, I don’t think anyone in government or opposition appreciated just how many people would qualify for them and how much it would cost. And these facts remained hidden from view over the following years. I know several retired people who had been receiving franking credits but hadn’t realised the fact until Labor announced its policy. Their accountants knew all about it, but they never understood what they were getting.

    Labor didn’t realise when they announced the change, with Shorten stating that it would affect “only a small number of shareholders”. They thought they were withdrawing something from a small group of really rich people, when the fact is that the credits are being received a large group of mostly retired people who would by no means consider themselves to be rich. Some of these people are going to have their incomes unexpectedly reduced by 20 per cent or more. Of course they’re angry: anyone would be in those circumstances: think of the people affected by the changes to penalty rates.

    When you want to introduce an adjustment that affects a very large number of people, some of them quite adversely, I think you are beholden to do it gradually. The way to go would be to grandfather the credits to existing shareholdings, plus an upper limit on the amount that can be claimed: AE’s suggestion of $20k per annum seems reasonable to me.

    Labor has backed itself into a bit of a corner with this policy. They quickly agreed to exempt pensioners and part-pensioners, and then ill-advisedly decided to hold the line at that point. It’s not something any party in government would do when faced with these circumstances, but Labor was concerned that backing down further would make them look bad.

    But not backing down left them with great difficulties in explaining why they were doing what they were doing, culminating in Bowen’s bad hair day when he suggested that people who didn’t like it could vote Liberal.

    Incidentally, I’ve noticed that Bowen has been rather invisible during this campaign so far: when compared, say, to Frydenberg or, for that matter, Keneally or Plibersek. His absence must surely be detrimental to the party’s campaign (of course I mean the Liberal’s Party’s).

    The difficulty in selling the policy lies largely with the dolt Bowen.

    I’m not sure whether it was arrogance or just plain stupidity in not having a short and sharp selling point ready to implement on day 1 of the policy release.

  18. Shorten was very smart in moving towards the would be bully. The body language and speech showed that Morrison was trying to bully Shorten, but the movement towards ScoMo showed that Shorten would stand up to him, and the use of the Space Invaders term was belittling to ScoMo. Very good moves. And I think it was pre planned. I’m sure that ALP handlers have been studying ScoMo…

    I noticed that after that Morrison was doing an awful lot of blinking, much more than normal. He was clearly rattled.

  19. Nicholas

    I don’t mind Steve Hail’s economics commentary, but his knowledge of AUS politics is sorely lacking when he says that (in relation to the idea of the deliberate running fiscal surplus)

    No Australian government, except perhaps the Howard/Costello government, can ever have had such a plan.

    In fact:
    – the Abbott / Hockey government did indeed have such a `plan’: “a surplus in the first year and every year thereafter”. This failed.
    – the Howard/Costello government did not have such a plan, instead they inherited an exceptionally strong economy that in the absence of tax cuts, spending increases or significant changes in Australia’s long term external account was certain to deliver unsustainable fiscal surpluses and concomitant unsustainable increases in private debt. Instead of having a plan to run surpluses they in fact lacked a plan to avoid dangerous and damaging surpluses (e.g. by delivering tax cuts, per their presumed preference) and consequently did far more long-term damage to Australia than any government before or since
    – the Hawke/Keating government DID have a “fiscal surplus” plan – namely to pay off foriegn currency denominated debt (which is actual debt, unlike $A AusGovt `debt’) that previous governments had unwisely borrowed. This plan was implemented successfully in that the foreign currency denominated debt was eliminated by 1996 (and mostly by 1989, after three years of surplus). This is the only instance of a successful Australian government “surplus” plan

  20. Meher baba
    According to K Murphy, Shorten found his voice on climate change and even Warren Entsch chimes in

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/shorten-finds-his-voice-on-climate-change-and-even-warren-entsch-sings-along?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2019%2Fmay%2F04%2Fshorten-finds-his-voice-on-climate-change-and-even-warren-entsch-sings-along

  21. I’d be astonished if that many people were voting early because they are happy with the status quo. I think it’s a very good sign for the ALP and confirms a lot of people made up their minds a lonnnnnnngggggg time ago.

  23. Again KK plays bulldog very well: interpreting Morrison’s bullying behaviour last night and the fact that he is not getting rid of JA over similar ‘jokes’ to Creasey. And giving Dutton yet another serve!

  24. Burgey

    It happened at last vic state election in November. Heaps more prepolling was done. I got antsy thinking that it was a vote for change to the fiberals. Turned out it was for a big swing to Labor. Thankfully.

  26. Darn @ #267 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 1:07 pm

    Shorten was very smart in moving towards the would be bully. The body language and speech showed that Morrison was trying to bully Shorten, but the movement towards ScoMo showed that Shorten would stand up to him, and the use of the Space Invaders term was belittling to ScoMo. Very good moves. And I think it was pre planned. I’m sure that ALP handlers have been studying ScoMo…

    I noticed that after that Morrison was doing an awful lot of blinking, much more than normal. He was clearly rattled.

    Darn, that’s because he was doing an awful lot of fibbing and exaggerating. He often looks down when he’s lying and is a dead give away.
    ABC FactCheck was good again today, thanks BK for posting.

  27. Goodness me. Jeremy Corbyn is well on his way to making UK Labour irrelevant

    You say that, bit it wasn’t UK Labour that just lost 1000+seats in the council elections. 🙂

  28. Rex Douglas

    Nothing like local Labor.
    Corbyn and some in his party are brexiteers which appeased Labour supporters in many districts who believed the tripe that they had been left behind and was all the fault of EU. Believing the bullshit that leaving the EU would somehow improve their lot. Absolute codswallop.
    He should have made the case for remain. He didn’t because his own stupid ideology prevails.
    Hence why he is just as bad as the Tory nitwits.

  29. Meher baba:

    Nope, I don’t have any great problem with the franking credit policy: I just consider it to be politically risky and, on the grounds of fairness, think it should include grandfathering.

    Perhaps it should have the same amount of “grandfathering” as the reduction of Sunday penalties for the people on minimum wage?

    Why are shareholders (investing at risk) deserving of government protection whilst minimum wage earners are not?

  30. A r

    But Labour should have gained seats as a result. They lost seats as well.
    Libdem gained a majority of the seats lost by Tories and labour.
    What does that tell you?

  31. Victoria @ #279 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 1:14 pm

    Rex Douglas

    Nothing like local Labor.
    Corbyn and some in his party are brexiteers which appeased Labour supporters in many districts who believed the tripe that they had been left behind and was all the fault of EU. Believing the bullshit that leaving the EU would somehow improve their lot. Absolute codswallop.
    He should have made the case for remain. He didn’t because his own stupid ideology prevails.
    Hence why he is just as bad as the Tory nitwits.

    It is NOT tripe that centrist neo-liberalism has left a lot behind.

    The Blairites and the local Labor right really are frauds when they proclaim concern for the battler.

  32. Labor can mess with their heads a bit now, prevaricate until the last minute on offering further debates if Morrison wants them, or alternatively demand them if he doesn’t. Either way they have now a bit of a tactical edge regarding that issue I think

  34. Last word on subject as I have to head out.

    Tories and Labour have failed to agree to deliver a Brexit that would work.
    The reality is any Brexit is worse than what the UK enjoy right now.
    Why hasnt Corbyn at least been honest, even if the Tories are lying through their backsides.

  39. Zoidlord says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 1:20 pm

    Malcolm Farr
    ‏Verified account @farrm51
    2m2 minutes ago

    I presume this FB post is genuine.

    😆 😆 😆

    I wonder how you’ll be received now they know about your islamophobic views?

  40. Barney in Phan Thiet @ #290 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 1:26 pm

    Zoidlord says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 1:20 pm

    Malcolm Farr
    ‏Verified account @farrm51
    2m2 minutes ago

    I presume this FB post is genuine.

    😆 😆 😆

    I wonder how you’ll be received now they know about your islamophobic views?

    There’s a LOT of islamophobia in the community so maybe it won’t hurt her that much.

  44. Had a bit of a smile when Macquarie news journo, Micheal Pache(?) came out with, “To blunt Shorten’s attack on the disunity in the Liberal party, Peter Dutton has come out today to say he will support Morrison as leader win, lose or draw after the election”.
    Well, let’s just hope Dutton has the chance to put his arm around the shoulders of good old Scotty as did Scotty with Turnbull. Not quite Cassius or the noble Brutus, but anyway, rinse the blood off my toga………………….

  45. Hartcher struggles to be relevant ..
    Some of the minor parties had captured the attention of the focus groups. Clive Palmer, described by two participants as an “Aussie Trump”, had cut through with his bright yellow ads and high visibility. He has so far spent double the sum spent both both major parties combined on advertising.

    His ads stood out for another reason, participants said – he offered positive ideas, not just criticism. His line about a “bullet train” and implied opposition to Chinese expansion had made an impression.

    As for focus group analysis.. it’s one step up from Vox Pop .. less than useless , all it proves is that most voters are ignorant

  46. E. G. Theodore @ #278 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 1:17 pm

    Meher baba:

    Nope, I don’t have any great problem with the franking credit policy: I just consider it to be politically risky and, on the grounds of fairness, think it should include grandfathering.

    Perhaps it should have the same amount of “grandfathering” as the reduction of Sunday penalties for the people on minimum wage?

    Why are shareholders (investing at risk) deserving of government protection whilst minimum wage earners are not?

    Post of the day, EGT.

  47. Zoidlord says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 1:41 pm

    Australian Gun Safety Alliance
    ‏ @AustGunSafety
    5h5 hours ago

    I’ve been a surgeon in Australia for 16 years. I’ve seen only two gunshot wounds. – The Washington Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/30/ive-been-surgeon-australia-years-ive-seen-only-two-gunshot-wounds/

    That’s the problem with gun control, our medical experts lack the experience to deal with shootings when they occur!

  49. Good Morning

    Islamaphobia is received by the voters in the same way as homophobia and racism.

    Its why the KKK is a vote loser. Its why the LNP are going to lose the election.

    Their its a strong economy is known to be crap. Not only because of limited role of government. So they have switched to vaudeville as the party looks to be in its death throes.

    Signing a unity pledge with Dutton on the leadership issue after roughly 600 000 Prepolled votes is real convincing. Not.

    Voters get it. The LNP are extremists it’s why they dumped Turnbull.
    John Howard’s legacy.

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