Election minus two weeks

Candidate withdrawals aplenty, and the latest semi-regular round-up of intelligence concerning the state of the campaign horse race.

First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.

Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:

• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.

• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.

• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.

Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.

• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.

• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.

Horse race latest:

• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.

Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.

Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.

Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.

• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.

Self-promotion corner:

If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.

From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:

Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.

And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:

If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

676 comments on “Election minus two weeks”

Comments Page 7 of 14
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  1. As far as the Franking thing is concerned, I think those who attack Labor’s move, as recipients I guess, need to say how is it that they don’t pay any income tax, yet get a tax-payer gift by way of refund? As I understand NO pensioner is impacted by this move, franking is still available, one needs to something like $220,000 of shares (with franking credits attached of course – not all have them) to get a $2-3K back and meanwhile can have a large chunk of funds in superannuation and while in the draw-down phase not tax is paid on this sum. The salient question to ask is why some $5 billion of tax revenue (and growing) , which can more fairly be used elsewhere, is gifted to a fairly well-heeled group. Nobody likes to see a cut in their income and I understand why some would be cross. To that end, from a political point of view, Labor might have tried some grandfathering clause. I note there is nowhere near the angst with the proposed changes to NG – I guess because it’s day has come and event the Liberals have changed the rules with more on the cards.
    I would guess that this concern over maybe 4% of the retiree group is among people who were never going to vote Labor in any event.

  2. I don’t recall anyone making the case that weekend workers who had made arrangements based on an expected income should be entitled to continue on that same income.

    Umm. Many people made that case. It is basically Labor’s position on ‘restoration’ of penalty rates, so indeed people are making that case.

    But that’s not the point. The case for the franking credit changes doesn’t really have anything to do with protecting penalty rates, it’s just an unrelated thing thrown into this discussion to derail it … whataboutery.

  3. When Shorten highlighted the disparity between business profits and wage growth, Morrison really shot himself in the foot.

    He came back with, but if you take out mining it’s only …

    So, is the economy as strong, as the Government claims or is wage growth slow?

    It seems the two are mutually exclusive. 🙂

  4. @guytaur

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/04/australians-accepting-of-migrants-but-negative-towards-islam-poll-finds

    “Islam and other religions
    51% of Australians had unfavourable sentiments towards Islam, and only 10% looked upon the religion positively, making Australia more negative than 17 of the other 22 countries surveyed.

    In fact, 37% of people said they were “very unfavourable”– the most negative response available. This was far higher than the milder option of “fairly unfavourable” (14%), and made it the single most common response to the religion. 23% of people were neutral.”

  5. Barney
    “That’s the problem with gun control, our medical experts lack the experience to deal with shootings when they occur!”
    That reminds me of the time a trauma surgeon from Chicago (Cook County I think) came out to Australia for a conference. He gave a talk and an Aussie surgeon got up and said how the American’s experience was much greater than his and asked the Chicago guy how many gunshot victims he saw in the Cook County Emergency Room. The surgeon relied that he probably saw about five a year. The Aussie got up and replied that wasn’t very many and they got almost that many in Sydney. The Chicago surgeon replied “Oh I misunderstood your question. I thought you asked how many gun shootings occurred IN the Emergency Room!”

  6. Another one – is this widespread?

    LNP volunteer goes rogue

    An party volunteer in Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s seat has been spotted handing out Clive Palmer how-to-vote cards. (Oz headline)

  7. It was entirely predictable. There was no point making a preference deal if preferences weren’t also able to be delivered.

  8. Tristo

    Donald Trump is doing the same.

    Its a vote loser. Its why they are not being overt. No puff pieces by the press is going to change that reality.

    No surprise Howard’s legacy gained traction.

    It will take ages to undo the damage. Make no mistake though.
    The Liberals won NSW because voters rejected what seemed Open racism by Daley.

    We are at the bottom of the barrel. Labor in government will change this. Otherwise we are going to see what’s below the barrel. Most Australians know this.

    Extremism loses elections in Australia

  9. citizen says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:01 pm

    Another one – is this widespread?

    LNP volunteer goes rogue

    An party volunteer in Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s seat has been spotted handing out Clive Palmer how-to-vote cards. (Oz headline)

    I don’t have a real problem with this.

    Where I do see an issue is where Party how-to-vote cards are being handed out for disendorsed candidates.

  10. Jackol @ #301 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 1:58 pm

    I don’t recall anyone making the case that weekend workers who had made arrangements based on an expected income should be entitled to continue on that same income.

    Umm. Many people made that case. It is basically Labor’s position on ‘restoration’ of penalty rates, so indeed people are making that case.

    But that’s not the point. The case for the franking credit changes doesn’t really have anything to do with protecting penalty rates, it’s just an unrelated thing thrown into this discussion to derail it … whataboutery.

    Fair enough, I just thought it was an interesting analogy. And you’re right, the point was made at the time, just not so stridently in the MSM.

    Maybe 7:30 should have had some weekend cafe workers sipping chardonnay on a yacht complaining about their futures being destroyed?

  11. Exactly when is a good time to defuse an unsustainable middle class welfare time bomb?

    If you believe that the policy (of reversing the current arrangement) is the right one, and I have yet to see any valid position opposing it, then the next decision is when to do it.

    That Labor has chosen to clearly outline its position and rationale while in opposition, and expand on it running up to the polls, exposes it to being judged as a party of political integrity, and courage. In stark contrast to …..

    That that seems beyond the MSM’s commentary is pretty disappointing. I would welcome being wrong on this.

    (On the MSM, I went to hear Behrouz Boochani – the Iranian Kurd who from his Manus Island prison has written No Friend but the Mountains – last night at the Sydney’s Writers Festival, and he reserved special criticism of Australia’s MSM.)

  12. Barney

    On the handing out votes. If it was advertising it would be deemed fraud.
    Voters expect volunteers not paid poll workers. The most likely explanation for these people doing HTV cards at polling booths for two parties.

  13. Refundable imputation credits have the effect of creating a second currency, and moreover one that is immune to the government tax power, which is the fundamental power of responsible government. The introduction of refundable tax credits is the worst and most disgraceful tax policy in the history of the Commonwealth, and indeed makes a mockery of the idea of the Commonwealth. As far as I’m aware there are no other instances anywhere in the world of this policy being instituted, perhaps because no-one had been able to conceive of something so stupid: Peter Costello’s talent for plumbing the depths of asininiity in economics is apparently unique. The policy needs to go, not (just) because it is “unsustainable” or “overly generous”, but because it is fundamentally wrong and should never have been implemented, and any “conservative” should have been a able to recognise this a mile off

  14. re: Lib volunteer/hired hand handing out HTVs for UAP

    I don’t have a real problem with this.

    It kind of depends on which perspective you take on the HTV and HTV-hander-outer.

    As far as disseminating information to allow voters to choose which guide to follow, sure, I have no problem.

    But the other aspect of HTV-handing-out is simply the presence at the booth. Having someone there gives the aura of having a large support base, an authenticity, etc, that makes a big difference in whether people think it’s legit to vote for these particular clowns.

    Having Libs puffing out the actual numbers of apparent UAP people on the booths is … a bit iffy in my book – not far removed from astroturfing. Having said that, using paid workers to dress up in Lib colours (or anyone’s colours) and hand out HTVs is just as problematic in that respect, and that happens all the time so …

  15. guytaur says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:14 pm

    Barney

    On the handing out votes. If it was advertising it would be deemed fraud.

    There is a Victorian ruling that says it is illegal and opinion exists that suggests that ruling would be repeated if tested federally.

    Voters expect volunteers not paid poll workers. The most likely explanation for these people doing HTV cards at polling booths for two parties.

    Wtf???

    How does it matter if someone is paid or a volunteer?

  16. Interesting that Dutton uses the word “should” stay as leader not “will” stay as leader. Doesn’t discount a challenge in my opinion.

  17. EGT –

    As far as I’m aware there are no other instances anywhere in the world of this policy being instituted

    Dividend imputation itself is the thing that is unusual. The refund for low taxable income types is simply the consistent operation of dividend imputation interacting with the tax free threshold (and clearly the real problem is that people with lots of assets and large actual incomes are able to engineer low/zero taxable incomes – fixing that would be a real reform).

    If we’re getting rid of stuff that is not done anywhere else, then get rid of/phase out dividend imputation altogether – that would be a bold, consistent, defendable policy (although very courageous).

    What Labor are proposing is an inconsistent mish-mash – if refunds are bad/wrong, then why are pensioners excluded? Why is the franking credit worth a certain amount to some people and nothing to others under Labor’s proposal, etc.

    I said at the time (and yes, I’m a modest beneficiary of the current system, although I will rejig things as necessary to fit in with whatever actually happens) this is a poor policy. It won’t change my vote away from the ALP, but it is still disappointingly poor policy, and the fact it is causing the Labor campaign grief is not at all surprising.

  18. Barney

    Jackol outlined why its problematic.

    I just pointed out public reaction in advertising is important. Its why the whole this is endorsed by x person from party is law.

    Its that principle. Just with advertising we know how to deal with the misrepresentation to the public of the support for the party.

  19. MEDIA RELEASE:

    BILL SHORTEN MP
    LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION
    SHADOW MINISTER FOR INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS
    & ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDERS
    MEMBER FOR MARIBYRNONG

    TONY BURKE MP
    SHADOW MINISTER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER
    MEMBER FOR WATSON

    MARK BUTLER MP
    SHADOW MINISTER FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
    MEMBER FOR PORT ADELAIDE

    LABOR’S $1 BILLION PLAN TO PROTECT OUR ENVIRONMENT

    A Shorten Labor Government will provide urgent action and overdue leadership to step up the fight to protect Australia’s environment and hand on a better environment to the next generation.

    We will invest more than $1 billion in new environment programs to tackle the extinction crisis, cut single-use plastics, protect our beaches and coastlines, clean up the nation’s rivers, double the number of Indigenous Rangers caring for country, and protect the Great Barrier Reef.

    For six years, the Liberals have attacked, undermined and cut Australia’s environmental programs, policies and institutions.

    At the same time, our environment is under growing pressure.

    Drought across eastern Australia, reef bleaching events, fires in Tasmania and thousands of fish deaths in the Murray Darling system all speak to the scale of the environmental challenge facing us in the 21st century.

    In February the Liberals confirmed Australia has suffered the first global mammal extinction directly as a result of climate change.

    It is time to fundamentally change our approach to addressing the environmental crisis.

    A Shorten Labor Government will reshape Australia’s approach to caring for our unique natural assets, reform Australia’s environmental laws and create a new, independent Environment Protection Agency – if we get the entire framework right, we will protect our environment for our children and grandchildren.

    Labor’s Protecting the Environment plan will include:

    $100 million Native Species Protection Fund

    To drive a national effort to save our iconic wildlife, a Shorten Labor Government will establish a Native Species Protection Fund – which will seek to both restore numbers of endangered plants and animals and eliminate non-native pests.

    The Fund will be established through a $100 million investment to tackle the most pressing extinction and invasive species issues. Labor will call on all states and territories, business and civil society to join in a national effort to protect our iconic animal and plant species.

    Projects could be as simple as engaging Indigenous Rangers to help eliminate invasive plants and feral animals, to much more innovative ideas: for example, it could help fund research into new forms of pest control – such as baits, poisons, or even research to engineer genetic traits to eliminate invasive species after a number of generations. The Fund will also be used to increase the pace at which recovery plans are put in place and acted on which has all but ground to a halt under the Liberals.

    $62 million Beaches and Coastlines Climate Adaptation Plan

    Labor will invest $62 million to help repair our coastlines, tackle coastal erosion and prepare our beaches for the impact of climate change. Around 85 per cent of the population now live in coastal regions and the Australian coast is of immense economic, social and environmental importance to the nation.

    Australia’s coastal communities are already seeing the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, in increased coastal erosion, a loss of dunes and inundation.

    Our plan will:

    Facilitate a national framework for building climate resilience, bringing together local and state governments, community groups, the business community, researchers and relevant Commonwealth agencies and departments. The national framework will provide the leadership that has been lacking under the Liberals to develop plans to adapt to climate impacts.
    Re-invigorate the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) to support the creation and dissemination of research into local climate change impacts, through re-funding of the program with $3 million per year.
    Introduce a $50 million Coastal Rehabilitation Fund, to work with communities, local governments, and the Australian Coastal Council Association to directly support coastal rehabilitation projects that restore beaches and adjacent coastal environments, and improve their resilience.
    $50 million towards Environmental law reform and a new EPA

    Labor will:

    Reform Australia’s environmental law, by passing a new Federal Environment Act.
    Where possible, harmonise state and federal laws to minimise duplication.
    Create a new Act which obligates the Australian Government to both protect and restore Australia’s environment.
    Establishing a new national Environment Protection Authority with the mission to protect Australia’s natural environment and deliver rigorous compliance.
    The new EPA will be informed by the best available scientific advice, manage development approvals, ensure compliance with environmental law, collect data and evaluate progress. If required it will also undertake consultation on key environmental issues.

    Labor will deliver a new legal framework which compels the Australian Government to actively protect our unique natural environment, and demonstrates national leadership. It will be an Act which protects our environment, but also supports job-creating development, and we will aim to deliver this in our first term.

    Today’s announcement is in addition to commitments that have already been announced:

    $200 million Urban Rivers and Corridors Program.
    $90 million Plastics and Recycling Package.
    More than $200 million to double the number of Indigenous Rangers over five years.
    More than $400 million through the return of Great Barrier Reef Foundation grant, to be reinvested through public agencies
    $30 million for Reef HQ.
    Labor has a proud history of protecting Australia’s environment. We saved the Franklin River and the Daintree Rainforest, we led the world in ozone protection, we protected Australia’s oceans, we ratified the Kyoto Agreement and introduced world-leading climate laws.

    This election is a choice between investing in a better future for our children and protecting the environment or more of the Liberals cuts and chaos.

    It is a choice between Labor’s plan to hand on a better deal for the next generation, or the Liberals’ cuts and chaos.

    SATURDAY, 4 MAY 2019

  20. We all like income without tax but you generally line up at center link for that. Franking credits with income from the tax department is a rort by any measure.

    Restricting negative gearing to new home purchases is simple a measure to encourage the building of new housing stock and is a problem for who exactly?

  21. I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet that the vast majority of voters do not give a single fuck whether HTVers are volunteers, paid, or being rewarded with cocaine and sexual favours.

  22. Interesting the John Alexander comments were raised by labor today.

    Yesterday Morrison was on about it did not matter how long ago the comments by the labor candidate for Melbourne were made he should still resign.

    I am sure labor will be using Alexander at every opportunity over the next two weeks. If it is ok to demand the sacking of a labor candidate for comments made years ago why not John Alexander ? Do you put a time limit on how many years ago a racist, sexist etc etc comment is acceptable as opposed to not ? Five years, ten years, twenty years, how long ago is it ok to be racist or sexist ?

    I am sure labor has the Alexander video ready to go.

  23. Asha Leu – I agree most voters probably don’t give a fuck, or even think about HTVers at all.

    But if you look at what happens on booths that have people handing out vs booths where a stack of HTVs is left on a prominent table or whatever, the difference is striking. The visible presence really matters. What that means for democracy … well, I can’t say it’s a positive thing, but it is what it is.

  24. Just read a depressing piece in the SMH about the findings from a recent focus group.
    I think some of us here don’t realise how fully fcking fcked in the head most voters are.
    Dumber than rocks in a box.

    How a progressive centre left party is ever elected in this country is a mystery.

  25. Clive Palmer is not stupid. He knows that either the Coalition or Labor will be in Government at the end of the month. He very much wants it to be the former. It is obvious that Clive Palmer’s vehicle, the UAP, is a front set up to harvest the votes of discontented and swing voters and shovel as many of them as possible to the Coalition via preferences. So return cheesed of Coalition voters and maybe pick up a few Labor and other voters.

    Hence we see Coalition and UAP cooperating at the local level and no doubt higher up. On the off chance that any UAP candidates get elected, they’ll mostly act like unofficial members of the Coalition.

    The UAP is a Coalition front.

  26. PvO’s column today: it’s lonely at the top for Scotty, he has to display multiple personalities because he has no effective team to support him. So Scotty attack dog, Scotty explainer of policy, Scotty the statesman. And a poll that shows precisely the problem the Liberals have.

    Former foreign minister Julie Bishop has been replaced, but the Australia Institute survey highlights the loss her departure is to the government. Bishop has the highest name recognition of any Coalition MP — 77 per cent. Higher even than Morrison, who is on 75 per cent. As a replacement for Malcolm Turnbull last August, she was clearly the preferred choice for PM over Morrison and Peter Dutton — highlighting that her name recognition is for positive reasons.

    The next two most recognised Coalition MPs are Barnaby Joyce and Dutton, with 69 per cent and 68 per cent name recognition respectively. But neither is a campaign asset, given the “Watergate” scandal engulfing Joyce and the gaffes and failed coup attempt that render Dutton a campaign negative for the Coalition. He’ll struggle to even hold his own seat, much less help others.

    Beyond names already mentioned, the next two most recognised members of the Coalition team who are actually contesting this election are Greg Hunt and Michaelia Cash — again, dead weights on the Coalition’s re-election chances. Both played a role in tearing down Turnbull, and neither could even remotely be seen as a campaign asset.

    And Michael Whatshisname polling on 28%.

  27. Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:29 pm
    I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet that the vast majority of voters do not give a single fuck whether HTVers are volunteers, paid, or being rewarded with cocaine and sexual favours.
    ————————————
    Which party is offering cocaine and sexual favours? I may change my allegiance.

  28. AL

    Precisely. They don’t think about it. They are just left with a false impression.

    It advantages parties that are rich but lack grass roots support.
    Its not a huge problem that’s why we don’t have a law about it.

    If we were going to go to the trouble of making a law. Label them party worker or volunteer.

  29. Peter Stanton
    says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:37 pm
    Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:29 pm
    I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet that the vast majority of voters do not give a single fuck whether HTVers are volunteers, paid, or being rewarded with cocaine and sexual favours.
    ————————————
    Which party is offering cocaine and sexual favours? I may change my allegiance.
    _____________________________________
    It’s Palmer, you get to do a line and then the big fella’s all over you 🙂

  30. E. G. Theodore says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:16 pm

    Refundable imputation credits have the effect of creating a second currency, and moreover one that is immune to the government tax power, which is the fundamental power of responsible government. The introduction of refundable tax credits is the worst and most disgraceful tax policy in the history of the Commonwealth, and indeed makes a mockery of the idea of the Commonwealth. As far as I’m aware there are no other instances anywhere in the world of this policy being instituted, perhaps because no-one had been able to conceive of something so stupid: Peter Costello’s talent for plumbing the depths of asininiity in economics is apparently unique. The policy needs to go, not (just) because it is “unsustainable” or “overly generous”, but because it is fundamentally wrong and should never have been implemented, and any “conservative” should have been a able to recognise this a mile off

    I’ve commented on this before highlighting that Costello effectively created a new concept.

    Earning income or generating profit creates a tax liability.

    Certain deductions are allowable to reduce that liability down to as low as zero.

    In some cases in businesses are able to carry deductions over to future years if their liability is smaller than the deduction.

    But no where that I know of, with the exception of franking credits, does there exist a situation where the Government pays somebody a tax return when no money has been paid that can be returned.

    Costello basically created the new concept of a negative tax liability!

  31. Question for the bludgertariat. With 151 HoR seats up for grabs, is 76 enough to govern? After providing the Speaker, that’s 75-75 on the floor. I know the speaker gets a deciding vote, but I had an inkling that there were some limitations to when or how this could be exercised.

    Apologies if this has already been discussed, but my simple question is whether the magic number is 76 or 77?

  32. nath says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:40 pm
    Peter Stanton
    says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:37 pm
    Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 2:29 pm

    It’s Palmer, you get to do a line and then the big fella’s all over you
    —————————————-
    I will be staying where I am.

  33. People will decide to vote or not to vote for a party irrespective of who hands them the how to vote card.

    Get up volunteers are handing out how to vote cards supporting labor, greens and independents. Should we ban them from doing so ? Of course not.

    I just think it is a non issue.

  34. BiPT –

    when no money has been paid that can be returned

    Company tax has been paid, and that is being returned to those on low taxable incomes. The company tax is refunded in full, to Australian resident shareholders, at the moment, and Labor is proposing that it will still be refunded, in full, to Australian resident shareholders except a certain group of people.

    If you think that you shouldn’t be able to rebadge taxable income like that, then let’s do away with dividend imputation altogether, but what is refunded is tax that has actually been paid.

  35. But Labour should have gained seats as a result. They lost seats as well.
    Libdem gained a majority of the seats lost by Tories and labour.
    What does that tell you?

    That they should have taken my advice, committed firmly to Remain, and prosecuted the argument for why Remain is the only viable option.

    No A R but is UK Labour that can’t translate that into national ascendancy. Why is that do you think?

    As above, pretty much. 🙂

  36. Jackol:

    Oh, I broadly agree with you there. My comment was in response to the claim someone made that “voters expect HTVers to be volunteers, not paid.” 🙂

  37. ABC 24 is doing a story on electric vehicles.

    Close of Business.

    Nice fact based story. Almost could have qualified as Labor Party Advertising.

    Another example of reality destroying the extremist denier narrative

  38. AL

    We can disagree on expectations. Unless polls are done we won’t know.

    My reasoning about expectations is because of the impression it shows.
    If voters expected paid workers on the booths doing HTV there would be no controversy about someone working for two parties at all.

    Its just two jobs then after all.

  39. That said, I read some focus groups suggesting people still dont know what the major parties are offering.

    So the Childcare and cancer treatment policies need a bit more saleswork…

    Its easy to forget you’re a political tragic and others dont follow closely.

  40. “LNP volunteer goes rogue

    An party volunteer in Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s seat has been spotted handing out Clive Palmer how-to-vote cards. (Oz headline)”

    I’ve always thought one of the great things about australian politics is that those handing out HTV cards generally chat togther and get on well. There have been exceptions (such as libs or PHON refusing to talk to of the other HtV people at all, and at the last election where a labor bloke who was in his 80s had a turn, fell, hit his head and the liberals standing closest to him stood and watched as the rest of who were further away rushed to help him and use items of clothing to stem the blood flow. I had to ask the lib bloke if we could borrow the folding chair he had right next to this because he sure as hell wasn’t offering it or any other assistance – says a lot about them I think), but generally it’s pretty friendly – and at one booth years ago a few of us agreed to hand out each others’ cards while people look toilet or meal breaks and from what I saw, people did it.

  41. As far as the Franking thing is concerned, I think those who attack Labor’s move, as recipients I guess, need to say how is it that they don’t pay any income tax, yet get a tax-payer gift by way of refund

    I asked this exact question this morning.

    The person I asked fully understood and agreed that the rebate is a gift, and also that it is beginning to deplete the treasury.

    She wants it because – to quote ScoMo’s words – she has been paying tax all her life. The rebate to her is thus a kind of retrospective tax cut, a belated refund of monies already paid years ago.

    She has worked all her life, so why should she pay for bludgers on the pension, without getting something for herself by way if the rebate? She admits she is too proud to apply for the pension. Doesn’t want to be seen as a pensioner. But because she doesn’t see the rebate as a pension, she feels OK accepting it.

    She is completely unapoligetic for this position.

    Neat eh?

  42. I saw an ABC piece on electric vehicles last night. Referring to the political debate but steadfastly refusing to give Labor any credit, the thrust of the piece is that all the manufacturers are gearing up for it, countries are legislating with Australia lagging way behind, & the things are coming. That’s it.

  43. Greens still campaigning on stopping a mine that was never going to happen.
    It’s why thinking voters are walking away from them.

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