Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. Going hard on franking credits, usual Shorten speech, bit of extra details and passion, moves on to multinational tax avoidance, Shorten seems to be a lot more in command.

  2. The opposite is also true. If you are a believer in abortion, you get attacked by Christians or other Faiths.

  3. 4 mins ago – 6.51pm
    Labor promises tax crackdown

    Mr Shorten said he will be announcing measures to extract more tax from big companies at Labor’s official campaign launch on Sunday.

    Asked should these companies pay a set percentage of their sales here as tax?

    “I think multinationals need to be accountable in the tax system in Australia. I’m not going to say it should be a blanket percentage.”

    Mr Morrison responds asking why didn’t Labor support his transfer pricing tax rules. That was likely the first time transfer pricing has featured in a political debate.

  4. Why didn’t the government do anything about the Ruddock Report?

    Morrison: Blather, blather, blather…not enough time…rhubarb, rhubarb.

  5. ‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    5m5 minutes ago

    Wow. Bill Shorten just asked a woman “what do you think you can’t say now.” Good question

  6. Meanwhile England and NI voting in council elections, and the English wide count of council seats to this point is…
    Conservative 1236 (-442) > Labour 902 (-79) > Liberal Democrat 564 (+304) > Green 48 (+42) >
    UKIP 17 (-54) Others 364 (+229).

    Incredibly (in my view) some tories are interpreting this as a sign to get on and deliver Brexit.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48142181

  7. If you’re going to wrongly accuse women of murder for having an abortion then you’re damn right you’re going to be called out on it. If abortion is against your beliefs then don’t have one. If homosexuality is against your beliefs then don’t have sex with someone of the same sex. Don’t you dare try and tell other people what they can do with their own bodies though.

  8. Trying to tie in mental health and youth suicide with a strong economy, saying you can only do something about mental health if you have a strong economy is disgraceful.

  9. Bill very strong and very effective on youth suicide, he made it personal and with the show of hands really connected with the issue and I hope with the audience and viewers. Nearly everyone raised their hands to his question of knowing in their family or of a family where someone committed suicide.

  10. Bill’s ‘training’ in his ‘town hall’ meetings showed through with that last answer. Top effort.

  11. Firefox @ #867 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    If you’re going to wrongly accuse women of murder for having an abortion then you’re damn right you’re going to be called out on it. If abortion is against your beliefs then don’t have one. If homosexuality is against your beliefs then don’t have sex with someone of the same sex. Don’t you dare try and tell other people what they can do with their own bodies though.

    And don’t hang around abortion clinics harassing people!

  12. Firefox @ #873 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    If you’re going to wrongly accuse women of murder for having an abortion then you’re damn right you’re going to be called out on it. If abortion is against your beliefs then don’t have one. If homosexuality is against your beliefs then don’t have sex with someone of the same sex. Don’t you dare try and tell other people what they can do with their own bodies though.

    Well said!

  13. Eff me these are all provincial local interest questions.
    The key I suppose is in their answers, local questions, broad national answers, open it up.

  14. Bill has more knowledge on the number, plus Startrack, morphing into bank bashing.

    Wants to get them to compete with big banks

  15. Sounds like all the town halls are helping Shorten.

    Dilemma now for Morrison – does he try the show of hands thing? Or will it make him look like a helplessly lost copycat and (more of) a fool.

    I am tipping he does it.

  16. And Bill really cares about the issue of suicide. Scott Morrison would not give a flying cluck about anything but himself. I come from a Xtian tradition of burying suicide victims outside of ‘hallowed’ ground and denying them Church Burial Rites. Thankfully not these days, but it was considered an unforgivable sin and a shame of the family. It shows in Morrison.

  17. @Fargo

    At this rate, conservatives will lose around 1000 seats. They are so lucky brexit party is not running.

  18. Oh dear, given boerwar’s opposition to a “People’s Bank”, he will be livid with Bill’s –

    He says that he would like to see Australia Post to be able to compete with the banks. He acknowledges that Labor doesn’t have a policy on this, but he has thought “long and hard” that there has to be a way to use their networks to let them compete with the banks.

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