BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 2:57 pm
Well that goes directly to her suitability as a candidate,
Very poor judgment, with little self and political awareness.
This could be a bit worrying for future debates:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/inside-the-perth-leaders-debate-participant-claims-audience-questions-manufactured-20190501-p51j6t.html
Did 7 push Franking credit question in their debate?
https://www.watoday.com.au/federal-election-2019/inside-the-perth-leaders-debate-participant-claims-audience-questions-manufactured-20190501-p51j6t.html
“Its the same with Dr Fisher’s climate change “modeling”. How does he come up with such ridiculously large costs as reducing GDP by $260 billion (let alone $500 billion) for climate change action?”
Because that number is the cumulative cost spread over 11 years. The cumulative GNP spread over the same time frame is expected to be $30 trillion. So his figures a worth less than 1% of the total.
Plus McGibbon – using more up to date data buts the total cost at under $50 billion – the same as he costs the liberals policy. Largely because buying abatement credits abroad is cheaper than at home.
The ANU guy says shenanigans to both – as costs for green projects are still falling rapidly. So probably no net cost at all. Which is Labor’s point.
Henry @ #346 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 3:00 pm
He was in her electorate, at the local Ag Show. Probably planned a while ago. Unavoidable. But he did his best to avoid her.
Regarding the Lyons candidate, she should be required to make a statutory declaration that none of the specified offensive material was posted by her or with her knowledge .
If she makes the statutory declaration then her word should be accepted absolutely unless and until she is convicted of perjury.
If she does not make the statutory declaration then the conclusion is obvious.
Martin B @ #321 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 2:34 pm
I predicted this in here over 6 months ago:
“I had a go, I gave it a go, but now I’ve got to go, … etc…
Another story suggesting Zed could be in trouble for his spot in the Senate for the ACT.
A good Alex Turnbull supported independant against him as well.
https://the-riotact.com/hargreaves-wonders-if-independent-senate-challenger-has-the-goods/289450
I think this was Jessica Whelan’s capital crime, as far as the Liberal Party is concerned anyway:
In a final chaotic dash to a car on Thursday, Ms Whelan refused to answer questions about her online comments, which also included support for lifting penalty rates.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6101531/pms-awkward-walk-with-liberal-candidate/?cs=14231
😆
Both Ladbrokes and Sportsbet are currently steady at:
Labor 1.30
Coalition 3.50
That’s about a two in seven implied chance of the Morrison government winning. I think majority and minority government for them are about equally likely (one in seven each).
Just saw a bit of scomos presser re: Muslim gate.
Basically she didn’t speak when they were in Lyons as he didn’t hold a presser there (he’s now in Braddon).
She’s not speaking now because she is not the candidate for Braddon and he won’t comment further as the matter has been referred to the federal police. He’s a snake alright scomo.
Adam Abdool says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 3:06 pm
Why?
They would have an idea of what topics they wanted to cover and chose accordingly.
Asking a couple of people from the audience to ask a question was just a bit of touchy feely wank.
Evan – I lived in Berowra for many years. Taking that seat as representative of ANYTHING is a mistake.
Evan @ #349 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 3:03 pm
Probably also because Julian Leeser is a good old-fashioned Liberal MP and is getting a sophomore surge after basically keeping his head down in his first term in parliament.
AE
Thanks for clarifying Fisher’s numbers, which in that case were not very clearly reported. Like you I would still say the numbers are ridiculous.
Oh, very true the election won’t be decided in Berowra, too many rusted on Liberals and retirees here who will never vote any other way.
The best result for Labor in the seat in recent elections was a 5% 2PP swing to the ALP in 2007, and yet the Liberal margin was still huge.
I did have to listen to a speech given by Leeser (with Mrs Shellbell) on education which had a bit of the Kevin Donnelly vibe to it.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #308 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 2:19 pm
Maybe she did not meet the Pentecostal dress standards.
I get that people are seeking out reasons for pessimism- largely to help emotionally should the Dodgy Brothers and (very few) Sisters get back in.
But honestly, it’s not constructive.
Don’t be delusional, is kind of the point. Labor WAS NEVER going to get 90-something seats. The geography just doesn’t work for Labor the way it does for the Coalition. I see more reasons to be optimistic that pessimistic.
Gee, the Liberal Party’s choice of women candidates, based on merit only, to boost their numbers, is going well, eh?
I don’t think I could engage PBwise on a plane.
Too focussed on being on standby in the case of an in-flight emergency.
shellbell @ #367 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 3:33 pm
He IS a Liberal in the Howard mould and Donnelly is an old friend of Howard, so, it figures. 🙂
Labor/Shorten say they are filling the Fisher report under P for propaganda
Another example of the mess in Dutton’s Dept.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/airports-blast-border-force-over-long-queues-inadequate-staffing-20190501-p51j6e.html
From AAP:
Nationals NSW Senate candidate Perin Davey has accused Jim Molan of breaking the coalition agreement by running a guerilla campaign to keep his job.
Senator Molan has gone rogue after being relegated to an unwinnable spot on the coalition ticket for the May 18 election.
The former major-general is distributing how-to-vote cards celebrating his military record and his role in immigration policy, urging people to cast their ballots for him below the line.
Liberals Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg fill the top two spots on the ticket, leaving the Nationals’ Ms Davey in the third with a tough battle competing with Senator Molan for the final seat.
“It is an absolute risk for the Nationals in what Jim Molan is doing,” Ms Davey told AAP on Thursday.
“It goes against the coalition agreement that we had. It also goes against the intent of the agreement that we had.”
Asked whether Senator Molan was letting the coalition down, Ms Davey said: “That would be a conversation for others to have.”
I just had a look at sportsbet odds for individual seats!
Quick summary: Labor favoured to pick up the following seats: Reid and Robertson in NSW, Dunkley/Chisholm/Corangamite/La Trobe/Deakin in Victoria, Bonner/Forde/Flynn in Qld, Boothby in SA, and Hasluck/Pearce/Swan/Stirling in WA.
Coalition favoured to pick up Indi in Victoria, Wentworth in NSW, and Braddon & Bass in Tassie.
Rob Oakeshot favourite to gain Cowper from the Nationals.
Wilkie, Sharkie, Katter, Bandt favourites to retain their seats.
Bonner is a seat nobody has talked about at all, the Coalition odds there have been stuck on 3.00 for a while.
A bit of positive street art.
Hmmm
Poor Jessica,
Trouble just seems to follow her. For context, the below article was from when she and (one of) her partners owned the Twelve Stones restaurant in Pontville. Jessica has a very colourful “personal” intimate life that she just loved sharing on FB, i would imagine she may not share now she is a a member of the local council and Lib candidate……. It was all related to said “personal life”
“TWO mates who burst into a Pontville restaurant during Saturday night service before attacking both the licensee and head chef in retribution for an alleged affair have faced court.
Timothy Phillip Cooper, 30, and Jason Stephen Rainbird, 29, both pleaded guilty to four counts of common assault and one count of failing to leave a licensed premises when requested, over an incident at the Twelve Stones restaurant near Brighton on July 11 last year.
Police prosecutor Darren Spinks told the Hobart Magistrates Court that at the time of the incident Cooper was upset about the recent break-up of a long-term relationship and believed the restaurant licensee had played a role in the split.
After drinking for much of the day, Cooper then made the decision to visit the licensee at his workplace — where his ex-partner was also employed as an apprentice chef.
About 8pm, both Cooper and Rainbird entered the restaurant and confronted the complainant behind the bar area in full view of customers.
Despite being asked to leave the premises, both defendants followed the licensee into the restaurant’s kitchen where Cooper shoved him in the chest.
When the head chef stepped between the pair to protect his boss, Rainbird reached around him to land blows on to the licensee’s body, head and chest.
Cooper then grabbed the chef by the throat before punching him to the kitchen floor.
Mr Spinks said the defendants then cornered the manager, with Rainbird punching him several times to the head before the victim reached for a tyre iron to defend himself.
Defence counsel Garth Stevens, appearing for Cooper, said his client was in a highly emotional state at the time of the incident, coming just a week after the end of a 2½-year relationship.
Mr Stevens said Cooper had planned only to speak to the restaurant manager on the evening and violence was never his intention.”
Mercury March 11 2016
Kerryn Phelps’s odds in Wentworth have drifted out to 4.75 – is Sharma swamping her with the 1 million dollars he reputedly has raised for the campaign?
In summary, a lot of the seats I’ve listed above are going to be line ball contests.
Scotty’s trip to Tasmania not totally wasted – he got a woodcarving..
Evan, the aforementioned site still has Labor favourites in Dickson (Queensland).
Could be a crucial seat (together with Warringah) with determining who will lead the Liberal Party if Labor do in fact scrape through.
nath
Bill’s attitude has basically been, either it’s me as leader, or I’m cutting down anyone in my way.?.
Nath you talk absolute garbage!.
I forgot above to add that the Coalition are now favourites to win back Herbert, but that’s another one I expect to be a 50-50 lineball thing, as will Dickson.
Andrew Earlwood earlier forecast Labor getting to 78 seats – seems a likely outcome to me, but of course a bit over 2 weeks to go.
Re: The Boothby odds. I have been casually following SA seat odds since maybe a week or two before the election and they haven’t really budged an inch. Which I think suggests lack of info or interest in that seat from a betting POV, rather than any consistent level of confidence. But wtf do I know.
sprocket_ @ #379 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 3:47 pm
Oh look, when the Liberal Party do choose women candidates, they have blonde hair and blue eyes. 😐 😒
1934pc @ #383 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 3:50 pm
He lives inside Bill’s head, doncha know!?! 😜
Nath’s right about Bill Shorten as leader. We’ve chosen the wrong leader. We clearly need a leadership challenge in the middle of an election. That’s what smart, galaxy brain people would do!
It’s also interesting how ‘nath’ never talks about the absolutely ruthless way Scott Morrison has carved a path to the top of the Liberal Party over many a dead political body.
citizen @ #357 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 3:17 pm
I prefer Betfair because it’s faster to react. Though in this instance, also stable over the past day or so.
Labor 1.30
Coalition 4.20
A few days ago the Coalition had managed to advance to 3.<something>.
Have the ALP been using the sale of the ABC as approved at the last federal conference of the Liberals as a vote winner in the eastern states.
Seen nothing of it in SA. Do bludgers think that it could be a winner for the ALP (similar to the Mediscare campaign last election)? I would have thought that it will be.
I’m alert but not alarmed shellbell.
If the Labor Party were serious about winning the next election they would have asked Shorten to honourably commit seppuku long ago. As it stands, doing so may still be their best move.
They do not! The one on the right is obviously coloring her hair (though I suppose it looks like her natural color could be described as ‘dirty blonde’).
enjaybee @ #391 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 4:01 pm
As far as I know, Labor have been leaving it up to the Friends of the ABC.
a r @ #394 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 4:07 pm
Well, she is the one who’s in trouble atm. 😆
Scomo’s running with the line that the facebook posts were “doctored”………..if it’s established that the comments were not doctored, then his candidate for Lyons has some problems.
C@tmomma @ #396 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 4:09 pm
Clive selects his candidates on looks too!
Can the AFP be trusted to judge ‘doctored’ photos? Doubt it.
The Sandpaper Shogun @ #393 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 4:02 pm
Morrison spills his guts every day and it hasn’t done him any good!