Election minus three weeks

A Senate poll, and reporting on the Coalition’s struggles to identify a pathway to victory.

Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.

What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.

Latest horse race calling in the news media:

• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).

Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.

• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Election minus three weeks”

  1. “I note on the list that A_Earlwood is being a tad fanciful and quite frankly, ridiculous. I mean ‘no way jose’… he’s dreamin’!
    Put me down for 126 please.”

    You are being unnecessarily pessimistic Gecko. Leave that to our Hanrahan- Munro.

  2. Wait … so the majors are tied on 37% which is -5 for the Tories and Labor nearly +2.5 … and that is positive for Morrison?

    They moved from bloodbath to just bad? Lol

  3. Cud Chewer:

    I want your love and
    I want your revenge
    You and me could write a bad blog post..

    I want your flabby
    I want your disease
    I want your everything
    As long as it’s free
    I want your prefs
    Prefs-prefs-prefs
    I want your prefs

    I want your wallet
    The touch of your brand
    I want your Onassis knot in my tie
    I want your prefs
    Prefs-prefs-prefs, I want your prefs
    (prefs-prefs-prefs, I want your prefs)

    (and later)

    I want Titanic
    I want your design
    ‘Cause you’re a criminal
    As long as you’re mine
    I want your prefs
    Prefs-prefs-prefs
    I want your prefs

    I want your psycho, your voter-go shtick
    Want you in my rear window
    Baby you’re sick, I want your prefs
    Prefs-prefs-prefs, I want your love
    (prefs-prefs-prefs, I want your prefs)

    (and so on, and on, and on, and on – the effin’ thing goes on for ever…)

  4. Cud Chewer:

    Rah rah ah-ah-ah!
    Ro mah ro-mah-mah
    Gaga oh-la-la!
    *ducks*

    Not quote… but instead:

    Rat rat hah-hah-hah!
    Men-sink bul-gari-ah
    Pal-mer oh-la-la!
    Want your bad bromance

    Stunt, stunt fashion baby, work it move that bitch crazy
    Stunt-stunt fashion baby, work it move that bitch crazy
    Stunt-stunt fashion baby, work it move that bitch crazy
    Stunt-stunt passion baby, work it I’m a free bitch baby

  5. I guess big Clive may struggle to push above 4% given he has shot so many arrows already.
    About 3 months ago most of the local community were appalled when the big guy appeared on arguably the most prominent billboard in our village community with the Trump quote “Make Australia Great Again”.
    The next day someone had changed Great to Greasy. It stayed like that for about a week. Just sayin Clive may not be as popular with those who have no need to lick his boots as he imagines.

  6. grimace @ #496 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 8:07 pm

    I was out door knocking in Pearce today and it was another good day for the red shirts. We were warmly received by most and got many assurances of “don’t worry, I’m voting Labor” or “we’re rusted on Labor in this house”.

    I also learned something i didn’t know and had one of my assumptions about the voting behaviour of Indian people busted. I assumed that they would be on the main conservative voters, however, today I learned that as a group they overwhelmingly vote Labor.

    In NSW there is a formidable bloc of Indian supporters of Labor. They even have their own group: Subcontinent Friends of Labor. Plus, one of our most connected and committed activists is Indian-Australian, our NSW State Secretary has fallen in love with an Indian-Australian, and Michelle Rowland, Shadow Communications Minister, is Indian-Australian. 🙂

  7. Some pollsters appear to have been adjusting their data to be reaching more steady poll results as have been seen over the last year or 2. The margin of error in most national polls is about 3% but the standard deviation/variability of poll results for some pollsters seems to be a lot less than would be expected (this is an observation rather than statistical analysis at this stage). You-Gov might be less so being newer and more variable.

    I can understand that pollsters would prefer their results didn’t bounce around to improve their credibility but variability is the essence of random sampling. Compare with the variability with the unemployment rate which has been a statistical estimate over recent years.

    I’m not suggesting a conspiracy to produce desired results but rather an attempt at more consistency. Wondering what the experts might think on this?

  8. grimace @ #576 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:09 pm

    Confessions @ #572 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:37 pm

    grimace @ #566 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:33 pm

    While door knocking today I met my first self described Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party. He claimed to be a neo Nazi. His parents would be so proud.

    Was he old, young, literate, presentable?

    Middle-aged, presentable and for all outward appearances life had been good to him. He lived in a new house, had a reasonable car in the driveway, was polite and well spoken.

    A lizard person then. I wonder how long he can maintain human form?

  9. Can we get an update on that UGov Galaxy poll. Particularly the primaries:

    LNP 37
    ALP 37
    GRN ?
    PHoN 4
    UAP 4

    What exactly was the Greens primary. What was the ‘others’ primary?

    Also, how were preferences allocated?

  10. I had wondered if WB was cutting Bemused/EGW some slack – and that it was only at the point that he practically admitted to his identity that WB’s hand was forced. I imagine that EGW’s attempt to relitigate grievances regarding the circumstances of Bemused’s eviction would also not have helped him to fly under the radar….

  11. Having just read through the whole day’s comments, and with a progressive/left perspective myself, I have to say that by far the most tiresome posters are those who start from the premise that this precise version of Labor is the only conceivable option for anyone who is not a far right nazi.

    These posters think they are Realpolitik masterminds when it comes to compromising on any issue where Labor seems to be abandoning its principles (eg NT fracking).

    They are unable to contemplate that any decision or characteristic of the ALP might be less than perfect (e.g. considering how Labor might be travelling with the members’ wishes respected and Albo as leader is thoughtcrime to these people).

    They hiss and spit at the Greens with a venom that can only be a reflection of the fact that they have chosen to abandon so many principles along the way, and so hate those who have chosen principle over pragmatism as though this is an undeniably invalid choice.

    And most irritatingly, they post with this air of extreme smugness that says that they know, unequivocally, that they are the guardians of wisdom and rightness about all things political and anyone who fails to say the right things is naive, stupid, a Liberal shill or some other variant which automatically invalidates their input without the need for a response on the merits. In short, they cannot fathom that there might be things that reasonable, principled people disagree about.

  12. The nutters here sort of know they come off as nutters though. The ones I am talking about, it wouldn’t even cross their tiny minds that they are smug partisan hacks relentlessly suppressing open discussion.

  13. ‘They hiss and spit at the Greens with a venom that can only be a reflection of the fact that they have chosen to abandon so many principles along the way, and so hate those who have chosen principle over pragmatism as though this is an undeniably invalid choice.’

    LOL.

  14. Kevin Bonham is calculating the YouGov at 53/47

    #Galaxy primaries majors 37 Greens 9 UAP 4 PHON 4 Other 9. Not sure if PHON adjusted for seats not contested. I get about 52.8 to Labor by last-election prefs (I am using 2013 PUP prefs for UAP).

    #ausvotes 

  15. Patrick Bateman
    says:

    These posters think they are Realpolitik masterminds when it comes to compromising on any issue where Labor seems to be abandoning its principles (eg NT fracking).
    _________________________________
    Classic. And they commentate as if they are Cabinet ministers, and that any deviation from the party line will lead to a media scrum as they leave the house. It is hilarious.

  16. Back of the envelope calculation – ALP 2PP:

    37 + 0 + 1.5 + 1.5 + 7.5 + 4.5 = 52.

    Splitting UAP & PHON 5:3 to Coalition, Greens 5:1 to ALP, others 50:50.

  17. C@tMomma:

    Clive Palmer shouldn’t be trying to rebuild the Titanic, the Battleship Potemkin is a more appropriate choice.

    Sergei Eisenstein floats that boat?

    Montage!

  18. Wow… most of the people on this blog act like they are in some kind of cult.

    You seriously love the Labor party THAT much?? What kind of lives do you have in the real world?? You sit in here and fire off partisan rants to all and sundry whilst being nauseously sycophantic for that party, the vile Get Up organisation and assume you know everything about a poster simply because she or he (rightly) condemns the ALP?

    Bill Shorten presided over the most disgusting campaign in 2016 which scared the hell out of 1,000,000 sick and elderly Australians by lying through their teeth that the Coalition was dismantling Medicare. A blatant lie. Now, I don’t know a single person over 60 who would vote for the ALP and rightly so. In here though, you seem to endorse every action of the party, and Get Up by simply bagging out the Coalition. That is not a moral response. That forms no rational argument. That does not assuage the guilt of acting like complete psychotic bastards doing whatever it takes to get into power.

    … yet you seriously think the sun shines out of the ALP’s arse??? Wow. Just Wow. You people seem really disturbed.

    More delusional is that you have no concept that this election is not over. I don’t particularly care who wins but it would be lovely to see the Coalition triumph… if only to send the message that liars and bottom-dwellers who stoop to the kind of muck that Get Up does, simply to have their ‘team’ win are the scum of the Earth and bitterly deserve the disappointment of electoral failure.

  19. The 9 for Others would include the growing number of Liberal-Lite Independents running, most of whom are concentrated in Coalition held seats.

    Not sure how that affects the National 2PP, but a lot of that ain’t coming back to the LNP . So the Others in play for preferences in the marginals would be probably well south of 9 points

  20. Poroti:

    Clive, living the Coalition dream. No wonder they kissed and made up.

    You know that I want prefs
    And you know that I need yours
    I want it bad, bad bromance

  21. The only seats that matter are the marginals.

    Victoria is nowhere near as strong for the ALP as initially thought (support has grown since last election mostly in safe ALP seats, possibly off the back of Andrew’s landslide). However the voters are not listening to anyone really in the marginals… no brickbats for the coalition, nor bouquets for the ALP.

    So it is possible that the Coalition may only lose a net 3 seats in Vic. Tasmania is interesting. Bass and Braddon could easily tip back, as they are both wont to do in Fed elections.

    Queensland shows very little pickings for the ALP. For every possibility of a seat, there seems some low hanging fruit for the Coalition. WA may determine the final seat but we could be hanging for a hung parliament. No one is seeing here an ALP landslide. So I am not sure the quality of the drugs being taken by people in this blog… best get those pills tested… you know it is free now?

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