Election minus three weeks

A Senate poll, and reporting on the Coalition’s struggles to identify a pathway to victory.

Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.

What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.

Latest horse race calling in the news media:

• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).

Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.

• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Election minus three weeks”

  1. William

    Perhaps you will run your “feebleness” filter over Confession’s 9.05pm comment, last sentence in particular. Now that was overtly “playing the man/woman”.

    I expect that as is invariably the case, silence prevails here no matter what that commenter posts.

  2. Don’t people get why Morrison and the Liberals are preferencing UAP

    this is all about throwing a far-RWNJ spanner into the Senate works to make governing as hard as possible for Bill Shorten.

    Yeah, but the thing about Clive – as much as I despise the man – he is not a far-RWNJ. He’s a rich clown getting attention and doing wtf he wants, but he’s not an extremist, and he’s not a xenophobe (his on-again and definitely off-again relationship with the Chinese not withstanding), and he’s not a crusader for “Christian values” etc. What he is is very transactional, and if he gets in he is someone who can be porkbarrelled, or have his name put on a shiny plaque somewhere, to get his vote, so he can be worked with – probably significantly more so than an LNP senator, and definitely more than a PHON/Anning senator.

  3. Ven says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 9:26 pm

    Mike Carlton tweeted on twitter that he has a sinking feeling because ALP losing the campaign. Why is he saying that?

    Sarcasm.

  4. @Ven – because he’s a paranoid like a few in here.

    While I think that thinking can become self-fulfilling… it’s not yet bourne out with ANYTHING concrete.

  5. Hi Grimace
    My prediction is for ALP to secure 75 seats in a hung parliament.
    Please record if you feel so inclined.
    Thanks for the initiative..

  6. While door knocking today I met my first self described Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party. He claimed to be a neo Nazi. His parents would be so proud.

  7. ALP 87 seats.
    Where is that minister – Price? Might not want to cop the same as Banks, Sudmalus, Bishop, Kelly O’Bigmouth and anyone else who rocks the right wing vote.
    Oh, if only the good ship Liberal pop was a plane!!!

  8. In a hopeful portent of the election, the Brisbane Broncos have just thrashed the Morrison’s Cronulla Sharks 29-6 at Suncorp Stadium

    Not sure of the seat count that would translate to.

  9. Ven @ #558 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 8:58 pm

    PuffyTMD@9:26pm
    English please.

    Posting as another poster.
    The other poster-name is a sock puppet. I am not exactly sure if it applies to two names as once, or coming back after being banned as a new poster to get around the ban.

    If a person does that, it is best not to admit to it because then the admin will just kick you off again.

  10. Jackol, maybe you’re right. I would call Clive Palmer a typical white-shoe-brigade spiv, chancer and amoral a…hole. He bashes up on workers, trashes the environment and scorns real academic learning. He is, metaphorically, a Hun who just wants to gorge himself on the spoils of his unearned conquests. If you want to say that’s not right-wing, OK then.

  11. Cud Chewer @ #570 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:35 pm

    I can’t wait for Clive to say “vote for me and you’ll get your money back but if you don’t vote for me you won’t”.

    He’s already said that in a way. He has said he will repay entitlements after the election. To which entitled workers will obviously make of that what they will.

  12. Confessions @ #572 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:37 pm

    grimace @ #566 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:33 pm

    While door knocking today I met my first self described Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party. He claimed to be a neo Nazi. His parents would be so proud.

    Was he old, young, literate, presentable?

    Middle-aged, presentable and for all outward appearances life had been good to him. He lived in a new house, had a reasonable car in the driveway, was polite and well spoken.

  13. A YouGov Galaxy poll taken for News Corp shows the Coalition’s primary vote has jumped two points to 37 per cent since March.
    But the poll also reveals Australians have been overwhelmingly unimpressed with their political leaders’ performances so far.
    An exclusive YouGov poll has revealed the Coalition has gained one point on a two party preferred basis, putting them behind Labor by 48 to 52 per cent. Picture: AAP
    Sixty per cent of voters were “not impressed” with Bill Shorten after his first two weeks on the hustings.

    https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2019-yougov-galaxy-poll-finds-scott-morrisons-chances-of-an-election-win-have-rebounded/news-story/5fa8818feb3c6daae430a6c6e584717d

  14. bemused was banned, full stop. He wasn’t ‘allowed to come back’, he came back by skirting the ban. So when it became obvious it was bemused, the existing ban was enforced.

  15. Confessions:

    Andrew Ellinghausen is another photo journalist who does brilliant captures. He travelled with Bill earlier in the campaign and got some candid shots of him with KK and others.

    I think you are conflating Alex Ellinghausen (a photo journalist) and Andrew Ettingshausen (a Cronulla rugby league player of the ’80s and ’90s, who most famously won a copyright (or something) action when a paparazzo shot a picture of his dick and it was then published (probably in the Daily Telegraph))

  16. Bushfire Bill @ #530 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:04 pm

    I feel so boring:

    Never been banned.

    Never fallen afoul of a spam filter.

    Only been warned a few times, and only blocked by a couple of precious petals.

    Bemused, meanwhile, has been banned TWICE.

    What gives? What do you have to do to become an official arsehole ’round here?

    Supercilious, unrelenting misogyny towards the female contributors. You’ve been close a couple of times, BB, but no cigar. You usually drop it after a couple of half-hearted goes. 😀

  17. Murdoch organs spinning like a top on the YouGov

    Apparently it also shows the biggest drags on the Coalition vote are Abbott, Barnyard and Dutton

  18. In a hopeful portent of the election, the Brisbane Broncos have just thrashed the Morrison’s Cronulla Sharks 29-6 at Suncorp Stadium

    Not sure of the seat count that would translate to.

    sprocket_ @ #575 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:38 pm

    Yougov Galaxy poll in Murdoch tabloids – I think the result is

    ALP 52
    LNP 48

    Confirmed. A bit over 1000 sample. Labor primary up 2.3% from last election. Can’t post much more detail as just on my phone at the moment

  19. Exclusive: Scott Morrison’s chances of an election win have rebounded after two weeks on the campaign trail, an exclusive new poll reveals.

    A YouGov Galaxy poll taken for News Corp shows the Coalition’s primary vote has jumped two points to 37 per cent since March.

    But the poll also reveals Australians have been overwhelmingly unimpressed with their political leaders’ performances so far.

    MORE 2019 FEDERAL ELECTION NEWS:

    Coalition MPs who could hurt PM’s election chances

    Woman mistakenly tells Shorten he’s a ‘p***k’
    An exclusive YouGov poll has revealed the Coalition has gained one point on a two party preferred basis, putting them behind Labor by 48 to 52 per cent. Picture: AAP

    Sixty per cent of voters were “not impressed” with Bill Shorten after his first two weeks on the hustings.

    Just 31 per cent said they had been impressed by the Opposition leader.

    Mr Morrison didn’t fare much better; 54 per cent of voters were unimpressed with his campaigning, while 38 per cent thought he had done well.

    But, in positive sign for the Prime Minister, voters saw virtually no difference between Labor and the Coalition on cost of living — the number one issue which will decide the election.

    The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote also had a one point bounce in the YouGov poll, putting them behind Labor by 48 to 52 per cent.
    Pauline Hanson’s support has plunged since One Nation officials were caught on camera seeking donations from the US gun lobby. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

    The ALP remains on track to win the election however with a primary vote of 37 per cent, an increase of 2.3 per cent on its 2016 result.

    Labor picked up 14 seats at the last election with a primary vote increase of just 1.35 per cent.

    The Liberals could also get less of a boost from Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party’s preference flows than expected.

    The YouGov poll — conducted online among a representative sample of 1012 Australian voters in both capital cities and the regions — showed Mr Palmer’s party was on track to claim just 4 per cent of the primary vote across the country.

    The businessman was touted as a potential kingmaker this week following a Newspoll that showed he could claim up to 14 per cent of the vote in the marginal Queensland seat of Herbert and 8 per cent on average in other marginal seats.
    With three weeks to go until election day, Clive Palmer is now more likely to pick up a Queensland Senate seat than One Nation’s Senate candidate Malcolm Roberts. Picture: Shae Beplate.

    He is expected to officially confirm his preference deal with the Liberal Party in a press conference on Monday.

    Pauline Hanson’s support has plunged since One Nation officials were caught on camera seeking donations from the US gun lobby and talking about relaxing Australia’s tough gun control laws.

    One Nation’s primary vote has dropped from 8 per cent to just 4 per cent since the last YouGov Galaxy poll in March.

    With three weeks to go until election day, Mr Palmer is now more likely to pick up a Queensland Senate seat than One Nation’s Senate candidate Malcolm Roberts thanks to the Liberals’ preference flows.

    Voters ranked cost of living as the number one issue that would change their mind on a party at the election but neither the Coalition or Labor had an edge in that area.

    Thirty-five per cent of voters thought Labor was the best party to bring down the cost of living while 34 per cent believed the Coalition would do a better job.
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    The seats that will decide the election

    Health spending and tax were named as the next biggest issues that would change voters minds ahead of economic management, issues of trust or Labor’s policy to axe tax refunds for franking credits.

    Labor’s electric vehicle target — a key attack of the Coalition’s in week one of the campaign — was a minor factor for voters. Just 13 per cent said it would change their mind.

  20. So bemused has been banned again. Why, what did he do wrong? I didn’t see anything wrong with what he posted.

    If you never got unbanned, that means you remain banned, and whatever you might have said while evading that ban is beside the point.

  21. Wouldn’t trust anything News Ltd publishes, including their polls.

    They probably hooked last week’s poll because it was so bad for Morrison.

    And they will probably doctor this week’s poll to try and maintain the facade of a contest.

    Then in the last week of the campaign watch for the poll that the late swing to Morrison headlines will be based on.

    Reminds me of the wizard in The Wizard of Oz. All smoke and mirrors that will soon be exposed.

  22. I don’t get the idea that signaling the election is close is helpful to camp Morrison. Surely the idea we ‘could’ have another 3 years of this rabble ‘could’ just as easily, send votes away.

  23. grimace:

    Interesting. For some reason I was imagining a younger thug-type person. Perhaps that’s just the stereotype. Anning and Hanson are hardly spring chickens after all.

  24. A party doesn’t get any funding if their candidate fails to meet the 4% return of deposit threshold. I suspect UAP is unlikely to hit get 4% in many seats. So no funding and $2000 deposit goes too.

    This is why I think Anning’s Fascists have gone hard running in as many seats as they have. He is trying to do what PHON has managed in past, except he is not as bright and cunning as Ashby. PHON is only running in 59 seats because they know there is no chance of cracking 4% in the other 92 seats, therefore saving money.

  25. Jackol:

    Yeah, but the thing about Clive – as much as I despise the man – he is not a far-RWNJ.
    [elisions]
    What he is is very transactional, and if he gets in he is someone who can be porkbarrelled, or have his name put on a shiny plaque somewhere, to get his vote, so he can be worked with – probably significantly more so than an LNP senator, and definitely more than a PHON/Anning senator.

    An accurate summary, and part of the motivation for my attempted “Bad Bromance” (Lady Gaga) posting (mechanically surpassed – Deus Ex Machina-like)

    Rawhide!

  26. EGT:

    Mea culpa you are right. I was having happy thoughts on the Ellinghausen surname and happened on the wrong firstname by dreamy mistake. 😮

  27. Don’t worry, your comments on a ‘Chinese invasion’ would have probably got you fired from any media organisation, university or government position.

    Thanks for the kind words, nath, but I’m not really consoled.

    And C@t, nice try, but it’s worth while revving you up. Every. Single. Time.

    Ta, anyway.

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