Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.
What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.
Latest horse race calling in the news media:
• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.
• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).
• Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.
• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.
I was out door knocking in Pearce today and it was another good day for the red shirts. We were warmly received by most and got many assurances of “don’t worry, I’m voting Labor” or “we’re rusted on Labor in this house”.
I also learned something i didn’t know and had one of my assumptions about the voting behaviour of Indian people busted. I assumed that they would be on the main conservative voters, however, today I learned that as a group they overwhelmingly vote Labor.
BK:
OMG, the first four words of the byline had me throwing up a little in my mouth.
Who does he think he’s kidding?
Time for some common sense on christianity under siege. Honestly these reactionary culture warriors have lost their mojo. Even Republicans have realised the futility of playing that particular card.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybH66U72xd0
PuffyTMD @ #364 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:43 pm
I believe (without evidence) the whole show is cooked. 😇
Albo has gone the biff!!
https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1121963056601321473
And this is just re-writing history.
Wasn’t Jesus supposedly the ultimate social justice warrior? Or perhaps Greg Sheridan believes in a different Jesus? Supply-side Jesus, helpfully encapsulated once again by Bill Maher who has explored all this previously because conservative reactionary re-writing of the bible to suit their own agenda has already been tried and tested and found to have failed in America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE0_JhLsgPQ
Greg Sheridan probably gets paid $700,000 a year to write this sort of tosh. So who’s laughing.
Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
Welcome to the Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep. Life has calmed down for me and its time for a much delayed update to the Sweep.
If you would like to join email your prediction for the number of seats that Labor will win to sjapplin@hotmail.com. Your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded with my apologies in advance to anyone inadvertently caught by the spam filter. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included. I have a full-time job and a young family to keep me occupied.
The rules of the competition are:
• Your seat count prediction must be an integer
• All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged
• Your first prediction is final
The prize is gloating rights.
Name__________Labor
Toorak Toff __________71
Davidwh__________74
Steve777__________80
Jenauthor__________81
Tricot__________81
Bennelong Lurker__________82
SandgroperWA__________82
Torchbearer__________82
Player One__________83
BH__________84
Edward Boyce__________84
Max__________84
C@tmomma__________84
Lizzie__________84
Gareth__________84
JPH__________85
Sonar__________85
Steve davis__________85
Hugoaugogo__________85
WeWantPaul__________86
Imacca__________86
J341893__________86
Outside Left__________86
Taz__________86
Confessions__________87
A Different Michael__________87
Kambah Mick__________87
The Silver Bodgie__________87
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia__________87
A R__________88
JimmyD__________88
Sproket__________88
A R__________88
Douglas and Milko__________89
BK__________89
Sohar__________89
Left E__________89
John Reidy__________89
Mari__________89
Quasar__________89
D_money__________89
Sgh1969__________89
Bert__________89
Harry “Snapper” Organs__________90
Onebobsworth__________90
Swamprat__________91
Poroti__________91
Bilko__________92
Pica__________92
Terminator__________92
Whisper__________92
Socrates__________93
Ausdavo__________93
Mavis Smith__________94
Yaba__________94
Jack Aranda__________94
Briefly__________94
Matt31__________94
ItzaDream__________94
Upnorth__________94
Nswtcsd__________95
Booleanbach__________95
Don__________95
Adrian__________96
Alpha Zero__________96
Libertarian Unionist__________97
Dan Gulberry__________98
Burgey__________98
Asha Leu__________99
Guytar__________100
ajm__________100
Puffytmd__________100
Golly__________101
Fozzie Logic__________102
Grimace__________105
Antonbruckner11__________106
Andrew_Earlwood__________127
Can’t link the ABC article but loved this quote “One Hobart local confronted him on the street and said she thought Mr Shorten was a “prick”.
After being informed she was talking to the Labor leader, she corrected her stance to say she was confused with the other fellow.”
Psyclaw, does a point arrive where a crack at Confessions becomes so feeble that you don’t bother making it?
McCormack, Dubbo. “People can always trust the National Party to do the right thing on water.”
#Watergate
like saying Dracula is minding the blood bank
Put me down for 88 Labour seats. Everything is pointing to a landslide.
Anyone wanting to run election ads against Clive could start with this grab of a news conference by him. He’s got $4b in the bank and couldn’t give a stuff about anyone else, including, presumably those employees still waiting for their entitlements to be paid out.
https://twitter.com/jessvanvonderen/status/1121998359273725952
How much money does Clive have? Here he is today letting us know…
https://mobile.twitter.com/jessvanvonderen/status/1121998359273725952/video/1
grimace –
I’m at risk of perpetuating yet another cultural stereotype but … are you sure the Indian households you were speaking to were really committed to Labor, or were they simply being polite and wanted to avoid a possible confrontation? I think the virtue of “speaking your mind and damn the consequences” is Euro-centric (Anglo-centric?), while others – particularly Asian cultures – prefer harmony. But hey – Euro-centric cultures don’t have to be the only ones that are riven by the conflict between desire for individual expression and liberty, and the need for communal nurturing and protection 🙂 Ethnic communities in Oz are surely just as confused as everyone else!
Having said that, you might be onto something grimace, given your outer suburban bailiwick: the issue of exploitation of casual workers by franchise operators I think would most severely affect recent young arrivals from the subcontinent. Even if you’re comfortably off – and eligible to vote – it would be galling to see your compatriots taken for a ride by unscrupulous operators. You could also clearly see which party clearly don’t have an issue with this, and which party – via the unions – are trying to put a stop to it.
grimace….I was on the morning shift in Pearce….good results, though less emphatically Labor-positive than I had been led to expect….good persuasion conversations, but lengthy too. UV out in strength, candidate in good form…
Great afternoon shift in Moore…lots of fun…surprisingly good
I should preface this comment by saying, obviously, I’m not on Twitter, and never have been, so I’m sure this is just stating the blindingly obvious. Still.
The responses to Albo’s tweet linked above are … well, unsurprising. I comment only that it is striking how tribal it is, and how the set of talking points is very small and repeated seemingly ceaselessly. It could be a genuine cross section of some twitter community response, but it does seem more likely that there are core groups of keyboard warriors who coalesce on particular lines to run (against the ALP in this case, and pointing out ‘hypocrisy’ in that the ALP were seeking Palmer preferences – whoever that clown was in the ALP who contacted Palmer deserves a severe bollocking – and/or trotting out Nath lines about Shorten, and/or going on about ‘extreme Greens’) and run it and run it and run it. And I would imagine it works the other way too.
I do despair sometimes, and I realize that’s kind of the point. Social media really is where politics – being the art of negotiation and compromise – goes to die.
Hey grimace, if you’re around, put me down for 83 seats (to Labor)
Gonna go for a 2007 redux. No evidence or gut feeling, just feel like taking that punt.
Thanks Grimace and Briefly.
Have I been banned, or is there some sort of problem?
Edit: hmm – well that’s interesting…
grimace –
Oh, and from a confrontation-shy individual, thanks for taking up the good fight, door to door 🙂
EGT, your last comment was pinged by the spam filter, suggesting to me that it may have acquired human intelligence.
William
Well are there 2 Mike Bowers ….. CPG photographer and some other Mike Bowers on Shorten’s team?
Or is the Mike Bowers (photographer and Insiders personality) in the photo and my eyes just can’t tell.
Not a fan, thereof???
Psyclaw, as I was reading it, Mike Bowers took the photo, and you were mocking Confessions for making him sound like he was in it.
I will be on the doors tomorrow morning in Pearce…prepolling in Cowan and Moore thru the next 3 weeks and canvassing in Stirling too…everything is up for grabs…voters will listen to Labor, but we’re not home yet
@ Ophuph Hucksake
We’re told to take people on face value with what they tell us.
Best I can tell the Indian people I spoke to were being genuine. It’s pretty obvious when someone is not interested and people generally are quick to send you on your way if they are not interested.
Remember, to be citizens they’ve been here quite a while and would have picked up local habits and customs like being more open with their feelings.
I’m sure it’s a very fine tune, EGT.
It really does look as if the Libs / the Australian have decided to use Newspoll to promote Clive and sideline the Onanists. Shows a stunning amount of collusion between a political party and a press organ in this country!
Don’t know how you’re got me down for 71 for Labor. I haven’t contributed yet but may say a cautious 76.
Jackol:
I find twitter to be the absolute worst of the worse when it comes to social media, unless you follow bona fide, genuine, ‘verified account’ users who invariably are professionals operating under their own names and bios. I rarely read comments posted under official videos or tweets by aforementioned verified account holders, whether they be on twitter or Facebook. Life is too short.
I am not on twitter, but follow various journos and MPs (federal and state), as well as international leaders and for now, some of the 2020 Dem candidates. My observation is that any comments posted under Facebook or Instagram posts by these people always attract tribal responses.
What is the standard?
Or are there club rules?
You’ll have to ask the spam filter.
“suggesting to me that it may have acquired human intelligence.”
nath, wayne, rex and bree still get through so maybe not??
E. G. Theodore @ #531 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 9:00 pm
There are indeed.
https://www.pollbludger.net/comment-moderation-guidelines/
But not for the automatic spam filter.
I feel so boring:
Never been banned.
Never fallen afoul of a spam filter.
Only been warned a few times, and only blocked by a couple of precious petals.
Bemused, meanwhile, has been banned TWICE.
What gives? What do you have to do to become an official arsehole ’round here?
Life is full of misfortune.
Caught in the rain.
It stopped too late to move on, so I’m stuck in this horrible place tonight.
I hate my life! 😆
If you click on the coffee cup, you’ll see my suffering.
https://www.google.com/maps/@11.4932539,108.3571644,18z
Try a bit of Lady Gaga, BB.
Anyone who has ever watched Talking Pictures on Insiders would know who Mike Bowers is, and would therefore know that he was not in that picture he took of Shorten and his team on the campaign trail.
Perhaps psyclaw has never heard of Mike Bowers or has never watched Insiders? Who knows? But in any case, my interest in, and/or attention to whatever occupies the obsessions of psyclaw’s mind ceased many years ago.
#notmyproblem
Or to put it another way, the Liberal/NewsCorpse axis has decided that since the Libs can’t deal with One Nation any more (they’re poison) they will use Clive to peel votes off One Nation and send the preferences to the Libs. It’s entirely bonkers of course. But I never said they were smart.
Too old for Lady Gaga, William.
But thanks for the tip anyway.
Dr Steven Hail of the University of Adelaide states the top ten economic issues that Australia faces:
https://www.facebook.com/green.modernmoneytheoryandpractice/posts/2218865371529927?__tn__=K-R
Yes. I agree that the UAP deal is a sign of weakness not a game changer.
The primary vote is not shifting from ONP to the LNP cleanly but splitting with UAP getting a good whack of that vote. As I’ve mentioned here, there was no way for the LNP to enter into an agreement with ONP, the only way to recover those preferences was the UAP.
That Bowers pic is a brilliant photo of Shorten.
That’s the Shorten we need to see more often.
William
Well I took it to mean that “an” MB was in the photo. Probably because the question was also asked “is that WS in the background”.
MB as the actual photographer did not cross my mind, even when I was replying to your castigation.
Now it is obviously obvious.
But if you look at it again you may even see that the words above and the phrasing looks like a description of the photo, not partly about the contents (WS) and partly about the photographer.
Bushfire Bill
says:
Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 9:04 pm
I feel so boring:
Never been banned.
_______________________
Don’t worry, your comments on a ‘Chinese invasion’ would have probably got you fired from any media organisation, university or government position.
Don’t people get why Morrison and the Liberals are preferencing UAP (and PHON wherever they get significant support)? It is to poison the Senate well for what they fully expect will be an incoming Shorten Labor Government. They know they’ve lost: this is all about throwing a far-RWNJ spanner into the Senate works to make governing as hard as possible for Bill Shorten.
Lady Gaga – Bad Romance
1,051,893,135 views
Psephologically significant? In light of the surge in youngsters’ enrolment?
Perhaps you’ll have to tell the spam filter?
Grimace
I note on the list that A_Earlwood is being a tad fanciful and quite frankly, ridiculous. I mean ‘no way jose’… he’s dreamin’!
Put me down for 126 please.
Lady Gaga was brilliant in A Star is Born. I admit I’d not really listened to any of her music before, but she got me in this performance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo_efYhYU2A
So bemused has been banned again. Why, what did he do wrong? I didn’t see anything wrong with what he posted.