Election minus four weeks

Another seat poll emerges crediting the Liberals with a surprise lead – in a seat neither side expects them to win, according to media reports.

First up, two seat polling anecdotes to relate, one new, the other not so much:

• The Geelong Advertiser yesterday published a ReachTEL poll from Corangamite, showing Labor trailing 52-48 in the must-win seat. After exclusion of the 3.5% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 42.1%, Labor 34.9%, Greens 8.2%, United Australia Party 5.7% and others 5.6%. The results are radically unlike those of the last such poll in December, which had primary votes of Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. The poll was conducted “earlier this week” from a sample of 788.

• Further results have emerged from the uComms/ReachTEL poll of Bass, conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association and covered here in a post on Wednesday, have emerged: specifically, the full primary vote totals, both for the initial question and the forced-response follow-up for the undecided. However, there was evidently an error in the latter set of results, as they added up to 131.4%.

Other assessments of the situation from around the place:

• Contrary to a growing view that the Coalition might be back in business, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor is confident it can win more than 15 seats, which includes “a handful in Victoria, some in Western Australia and several in Queensland, not least Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson”.

• On Tuesday, Michael Koziol of The Age said the consensus from Victoria is that the Coalition would lose three to five seats: “Corangamite and Dunkley seem likely to fall, Chisholm too, while La Trobe and Casey are marginal”. Not included in the list is Deakin, where Liberal sources cited in The Australian, also on Tuesday, said they were “fairly comfortable”. Contra ReachTEL, the Liberal sources rated Corangamite a “near-certain loss” – an assessment that did not stop Scott Morrison campaigning in the seat that very day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Election minus four weeks”

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  1. Not a single comment about the Corangamite Poll. Talk about ignoring bad news. If it is the slightest bit accurate, Labor has serious issues as if they can’t win Corangamite, Billy will be out of a job in 4 weeks.

  2. I went to school with taylor’s wife at Hurlstone. She was a year ahead of me. I’m obviously very disappointed she turned out a Tory.

  6. Rocket Rocket are you a Saints supporter.?

    I am and really enjoyed the last couple of weeks,being a Saints supporter take what we can. Long way to go, most where saying we’d be luckyto get four wins for the year

    The accountant has been an absolute revelation, signed up for 2 more

  7. michael @ #50 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:52 am

    Not a single comment about the Corangamite Poll. Talk about ignoring bad news. If it is the slightest bit accurate, Labor has serious issues as if they can’t win Corangamite, Billy will be out of a job in 4 weeks.

    No comment about the consensus from Liberal sources in Victoria who rated Corangamite “a near certain loss” (note the quotation marks). If the Liberals can’t hold on to Corangamite, Scott y will be out of a job in 4 weeks. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke. 🙂

  8. Threatening West with defamation proceedings is beyond hopeless. I would be amazed if he had a single asset in his own name. Ain’t the internet wonderful. Also very funny that the lawyers said their threats were “confidential”. What are they smoking.

  10. michael @ #50 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:52 am

    Not a single comment about the Corangamite Poll. Talk about ignoring bad news. If it is the slightest bit accurate, Labor has serious issues as if they can’t win Corangamite, Billy will be out of a job in 4 weeks.

    So your Easter eggs turned out to be rabbit poo again, huh michael? You and the Waynebot can cry together on the Menindee banks.

  12. A huge majority of Coalition and Labor voters would back an increase to Newstart to “cover basic living costs and to help people search for jobs”, a new poll suggests.

    Released as advocates campaign in marginal seats on the issue, the survey, conducted for the Australian Council of Social Service (Acoss), found that 72% supported a boost to the unemployment benefit, which has not risen in real terms in two decades.

    The Essential survey of 1,000 voters suggests there is support across party lines for an increase to the dole. Labor voters were most likely to back a proposal to lift Newstart, with 81% in favour and only 12% against such a plan.

    Coalition voters were split 66-22 in favour of an increase, while Greens supporters were also overwhelmingly in favour (79-12) about the idea.

    The polling is in line with past research. Both major parties have declined to support a specific increase to the payment, which is about $280 a week – or $40 a day – for single people….

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/21/newstart-increase-big-majority-of-voters-across-parties-back-rise-poll-finds

    The neo-libs infesting Lib-Lab just don’t get it. They’re more interested in tax cuts.

  14. What Scotty doesn’t realise, with his ‘how much does Bill Shorten’s Climate Change Policy cost?’, is that he is fighting on his opponent’s ground.

  15. These grabs of the campaign to date on Insiders show Scotty shouting all the time, and grasping at every little thing, and Shorten sounding calm and rational.

  20. Sally McManus
    ‏Verified account @sallymcmanus
    17h17 hours ago

    Remember that the people working on cafes and shops this weekend have had their pay cut. The fact that Morrison and his crew voted eight times to ensure they received this pay cut is a disgrace #ChangeTheRules

  22. Does Shorten need to play on the way it is or get down and dirty like Frydenburg and Morrison re the death tax

    Coalition disgust me, they do not have policy just rhetoric and abuse

    As my wife just said Shorten s smarter than Morrison but Morrison plays the bloke at the rsl you’d want to have a beer with. And a lot of Australians think it is ok to dislike the smart bloke and back in the smart arse

  24. IPSOS poll results, reported on Insiders. showing:

    healthcare no 1 issue
    cost of living no 2 issue
    ? no 3 issue
    environment no 4 issue.

    This is quite at variance with the ABC voter compass outcomes. The latter is a self-selecting group. The form is a structured survey.

    Insiders dissecting Morrison lying about the Labor/Greens Secret Death Tax deal.
    Water buyback second issue raised.

  25. “Not a single comment about the Corangamite Poll. Talk about ignoring bad news. If it is the slightest bit accurate, Labor has serious issues as if they can’t win Corangamite, Billy will be out of a job in 4 weeks.”

    I find that poll really hard to believe both because it is an individual seat poll, which we know are unreliable, and it shows a large shift to the Libs in a state where the trend has been the opposite. What is the local factor that could drive that? Geelong has been promised a HSR (Hugely Speculative Rail) to Melbourne that cannot be started for five years, or finished in ten.

    I could say Labor needs to put out more detail in some policy areas, including infrastructure. But the detail will not satisfy some people. The coalition has made a lot of promises that are either undeliverable or can only be paid for with massive service cuts. Is that really working on the population of Geelong? I cannnot believe 52% of them could be that stupid.

  28. Socrates says:
    Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 9:14 am

    ‘What is the local factor that could drive that?’

    I dislike Henderson but assume she would be an effective campaigner. But not, IMO, enough to generate those seat poll figures.

  30. Senator Patrick has just pointed out that there is nothing stopping Cubby Station from harvesting the flood plain water ‘released’ by #watergate.

    This interview of Patrick by Cassidy is incredibly damaging for the Coalition.

  31. The $52m profit made by Angus Taylor’s former company was transferred to the Cayman Islands

    Patrick also says 2 other matters being investigated, one about to drop

    Calling for a RC

  34. Morrison’s assertion that the Senate was provided with the documents is starting to look like the usual Morrison approach to the truth: the documents were redacted.
    Just like the Mueller Report has been conveniently redacted.
    Morrison is a pissweak version of Trump.

  36. c@t
    The Menindee buyback was of water right south of Menindee.
    The buyback was specifically intended to enable the shut down the Menindee lakes.

  39. Cassidy mentioned that in previous elections Labor had built up a much larger social media base and that in this election the Coalition is trying to bridge the gap.

  40. Lizzie
    “So Australia is taking no responsibility for a brain injury acquired at birth in WA?”

    Regarding the rejected visa applications for the family with a disabled child, I agree this seems especially harsh if the disability was acquired at birth in an Australian hospital. The family moved to Australia in good faith and are working. So this sort of case should be accepted. It seems unjust to reject an applicant who is already legally in Australia, for an event beyond their control. I dare say a good lawyer could sue the hospital for them, but that would probably take too long.

  41. You set up a company in the Cayman Islands, then sell it based on future earnings potential. That’s where you make your money.

    The answer has been hiding in plain site.

  42. I do not put any credence in seat polls.
    Enough has been said on this blog over the years proving why, I might add. So why people accept these polls and debate them is beyond me.
    Remember what the seat polls in Longman and the Super Saturday seats predicted??
    Enough said in my opinion.

  46. Cassidy wtte Patrick has followed the Greens on the call for a RC into the whole MDB system.

    Karvelas wtte there is bipartisan agreement so far not to have one.

    Patrick and CA do not support Labor’s franking credits policy but is open to its negative gearing policy though his party has concerns about it.

  49. Interesting that Insiders has produced such an inflamatory guest. I don’t think Patrick is even up for election this time. Barrie Cassidy sees retirement looming and doesn’t give a s… anymore?

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