Happy trails

As the election campaign enters a hiatus, a look at where the leaders have been and why.

As the Easter/Anzac Day suspension of hostilities begins, it may be instructive to look at where the leaders have travelled during the campaign’s preliminary phase. Featured over the fold is a display listing the electorates that have been targeted, as best as I can tell, and a very brief summary of what they were up to while they were there. Certain entries are in italics where it is seems clear that the area was not targeted for its electoral sensitivity, such as Bill Shorten’s visit to Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project to get some good vision presenting him as a champion of infrastructure, which happened to place him in the unloseable Labor seat of Gellibrand. There are also a few entries that clearly targeted more than one electorate, in which case the margin for the secondary elected is listed on a second line.

What stands out is that Scott Morrison has hit a number of Labor-held seats, consistent with the optimistic impression the Liberals are presenting about their prospects – an assessment which, on this evidence, does not look to be fully shared by Labor. The only activity of Shorten’s that had Labor territory as its primary target was his visit to the Northern Territory on Thursday. Of equal interest to Shorten’s pattern of travel is the clarity of Labor’s early campaign theme of health policy, in contrast of the grab bag of messages promoted by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

720 comments on “Happy trails”

Comments Page 6 of 15
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  2. “I see the ALP/Greens feud is continuing unabated. Sigh.”

    We are all in desperate need of some nutty Liberals on PB so we can turn our attention to them instead lol. There’s just none here! Or if they are they’re being very very quiet. It’s hard to debate against Coalition supporters when there’s none to argue against.

  5. What “she said” matters. She was the Labor leader at the time.

    It is important, noone said it doesn’t matter, it just isn’t any more decisive than when Barnaby today says he did nothing wrong. It is important but it isn’t the start or end of the inquiry.

    Don’t even try to blame that all on the ETS, carbon price/tax, or whatever you want to call it.

    I’m not a single cause kinda of a person, other than single variable maths most of life if more complex than a single variable would allow, and much much more complex than a single binary variable.

    The leadership change was disasterous. But the Gillard Govt, with support of the independents and the greens had just won an election. They had their own history to write and write it they did. It was incredibly unpopular. Support for action on carbon peaked in 2007 at greater than 85%, it fell through the floor. I’m surprised the greens, who are supposed to be the ones whose main focus is the environment, haven’t ever wondered or reflected on how that happened. In that period at no time did Labor oppose a carbon scheme, but Tony and the greens certainly did. Might it be possible that the opposition from Tony on the right and the greens on the left had some effect.

    In no way is it a scientific sample but I know a number of people I would have previously considered to be in the Labor / Greens border areas, moving between the two, who have since, to this day adopted a combination of Liberal and Green talking points to have a mantra that goes something like ‘Unless the whole world goes 120% there is just no point” to support a ‘lets do nothing’ position.

    Labor has had many many flaws in its policy design and implementation, and most of them are on the ‘not strong enough’ side, but at no time has it said ‘well doing nothing is better than this’ which the greens are saying they may well say again. Well just like last time, if the greens do say ‘well nothing is better than this’ again a majority of Australians may well agree with them.

  6. @Rex

    Labor should not comment on Liberal Scandals, simply focus on releasing policies, and going out to the different seats campaigning.

    If Labor focuses on scandals, then they won’t focus on positive policies

  7. ‘Unfinished business’: what the parties offer Indigenous voters in the 2019 election

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/20/unfinished-business-what-the-parties-offer-indigenous-voters-in-the-2019-election

    The Greens strongly support a voice to parliament as part of “addressing the unfinished business with the Uluru statement from the heart”, but also say treaties are a vital pathway to recognising Indigenous sovereignty and for achieving meaningful reform.

    The Greens would abolish the CDP, and – in contrast to Labor and the Coalition – have said they would also abolish the cashless welfare card.

    “We must firmly slam the door on punitive controlling measures like the Intervention, the cashless debit card and the CDP which undermine self-determination of First Nations communities and any chance we have at closing the gap,” the Greens senator Rachel Siewert said.

    The Greens want Closing the Gap targets to address the high rates of Indigenous incarceration and the disproportionate rates of Indigenous children in out of home care.

    They’ve committed to restoring the $500m that was cut from First Nations programs under the Abbott government in 2015, in order to create the Indigenous Advancement Strategy.

    They also promise $10m over four years to establish an independent National Centre for Justice Reinvestment, based on the work of Just Reinvest in Bourke, New South Wales.

  8. Murdoch has got what he wanted over the years.A public totally disengaged with the truth of politics,so when it comes to the crunch for the short time of engagement and it comes to a vote he can manipulate them all over again with his scare campaign shit.This is what Labor is constantly up against.With Albo as leader it wont be any different assuming he is leader next time round IF the con job works again and Morrison gets over the line.

  9. The Lawfareblog post was written by 9 other people in addition to Wittes. To be honest I’ve never looked at Wittes through an ideological prism.

    I also enjoy Laurence Tribe’s work too.

    I try not to, but his willingness to give Barr, who seemed from before he was even nominated to the AG position to be a bad faith actor.

    I accept 100% the ‘better than Trump might have chosen’ analysis, but to extend a presumption of good faith (as it ended up a very very poor call) long after it was clear he was acting in bad faith, must come from something other than objective analysis.

  10. Interesting that Morrison is announcing his catch up health policies on Easter Saturday.

    Not a good time for any real political bang for the buck.

  11. “Firefox
    Go through all the visuals in that vid, and in the upper left hand side of one of the takes there is clearly a drilling rig drawn onto the top of Uluru.”

    I posted a photo, not a video. The rig is clearly in front of Uluru. The intent of it to defend Uluru and surrounding areas is also very clear. Once again you’ve shown your hatred for the Greens clouds all else. We and others are trying to protect Uluru. Full stop. To try and imply otherwise is disgraceful.

  13. Zoidlord @ #255 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 1:58 pm

    @Rex

    Labor should not comment on Liberal Scandals, simply focus on releasing policies, and going out to the different seats campaigning.

    If Labor focuses on scandals, then they won’t focus on positive policies

    Well, it looks like Shorten has called for a audit of the $80M water buyback and is seeking Morrisons assurances everything is above board. Well done Bill.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2019-campaign-day-ten-shorten-aims-to-reset-ledger/news-story/e829f4a982cc68b045e2d885f6e1b45f

  14. It’s interesting how stories like Watergate now percolate up from social media. They gain a foothold there and eventually the MSM can’t ignore it.

  15. If we had the alternative reality where that happened Gillard would not have suffered as badly in the polls giving Rudd his return to being Prime Minister.

    At least then we would not have this blame the Greens stuff we get now.

    There might have been a lot less ‘blame the greens’ if the greens hadn’t said ‘no action is better than Rudd’s CPRS’, because a lot of people decided they were right and effectively for all but a brief flicker over the last 12 years we have got exactly that ‘better with nothing’ the greens said was preferable.

    Now I’m not saying a CPRS would have saved the GBR but how is doing nothing at all working for it?

  16. WeWantPaul @ #254 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 1:58 pm

    What “she said” matters. She was the Labor leader at the time.

    It is important, noone said it doesn’t matter, it just isn’t any more decisive than when Barnaby today says he did nothing wrong. It is important but it isn’t the start or end of the inquiry.

    Don’t even try to blame that all on the ETS, carbon price/tax, or whatever you want to call it.

    I’m not a single cause kinda of a person, other than single variable maths most of life if more complex than a single variable would allow, and much much more complex than a single binary variable.

    The leadership change was disasterous. But the Gillard Govt, with support of the independents and the greens had just won an election. They had their own history to write and write it they did. It was incredibly unpopular. Support for action on carbon peaked in 2007 at greater than 85%, it fell through the floor. I’m surprised the greens, who are supposed to be the ones whose main focus is the environment, haven’t ever wondered or reflected on how that happened. In that period at no time did Labor oppose a carbon scheme, but Tony and the greens certainly did. Might it be possible that the opposition from Tony on the right and the greens on the left had some effect.

    In no way is it a scientific sample but I know a number of people I would have previously considered to be in the Labor / Greens border areas, moving between the two, who have since, to this day adopted a combination of Liberal and Green talking points to have a mantra that goes something like ‘Unless the whole world goes 120% there is just no point” to support a ‘lets do nothing’ position.

    Labor has had many many flaws in its policy design and implementation, and most of them are on the ‘not strong enough’ side, but at no time has it said ‘well doing nothing is better than this’ which the greens are saying they may well say again. Well just like last time, if the greens do say ‘well nothing is better than this’ again a majority of Australians may well agree with them.

    The Gillard-Milne-Indy progressive govt could still be in power if but for the internal treachery of the ALP.

    The legislated clean energy package would have seen Australia leading the way in transitioning the workforce over to a clean energy powerhouse.

  17. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/time-to-get-off-the-election-campaign-bus-and-onto-a-motorbike-20190418-p51fc5.html

    It’s time for political campaigns to go the full mock-up.

    All that is required are a couple of large warehouses, each with a selection of factory equipment on one side, a food market on the other, and a few dozen extras capable of playing the parts of tradies, shoppers and the occasional hospital patient.

    Wheel in the TV cameras and the journos and a stray candidate or two and hey presto, you’ve got your ersatz election campaigns covered.

    Think we’re joking here?

    True, it’s not going to happen. But there is reason to be facetious.

    Today’s election offensives have all the drama, authenticity and substance of a low-rent soapie filmed on a soundstage.
    :::
    But there’s not much more point to what’s become of this ritualised circus.
    :::
    These years later, within the all-encompassing internet age, when everyone is connected and savvy and campaign managers are paranoid, all the travelling and the street walks and the brief stops for press conferences and smile-fests with local candidates are nearing redundancy.

    Somebody call in the set director.

  19. 7 MINUTES AGO | 2.05PM
    Shorten ‘struck deal with Greens

    Scott Morrison has accused Bill Shorten of clinching a deal with the Greens to rush through key tax and climate change policies before the start of the new Senate, following revelations Labor was planning to “maximise its changes” of reversing penalty rate cuts before June 30…

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2019-campaign-day-ten-shorten-aims-to-reset-ledger/news-story/e829f4a982cc68b045e2d885f6e1b45f

    Good to see some co-operation between the Greens and Labor.

    I’m sure though our Labor right partisans on PB will be upset.

  20. ‘Morrison refusing to answer questions on #watergate #auspol #ausvotes’
    The media (including the Guardian and the ABC) will say ScoMo is just keeping himself above the fray. Nothing to see here.

  21. Last thing before I go, in politics it is perfectly acceptable to say ‘we will do it properly our way or not at all’, but when you say that you have got to do it properly you turn your back on the good, in search of the perfect, go for it, deliver the perfect. What you can’t do is deliver nothing at all and then try to blame the those looking for the good you rejected in your failed quest.

  22. The Gillard-Milne-Indy progressive govt could still be in power if but for the internal treachery of the ALP.

    The legislated clean energy package would have seen Australia leading the way in transitioning the workforce over to a clean energy powerhouse

    That is your conclusion, one I find insufficiently grounded in reality and do not in anyway accept as an open or reasonable conclusion.

  23. “It is important, noone said it doesn’t matter, it just isn’t any more decisive than when Barnaby today says he did nothing wrong. It is important but it isn’t the start or end of the inquiry.”

    Lol we all know Barnaby can’t be trusted. He’s an absolute joke. The laughing stock of the nation. He even broke the trust of his own family. Vile disgrace.

    Gillard herself explained in that quote I posted above what happened with the ETS and why support was lost for it. I think she’s in a better position than most to comment on that. It was a great policy that all Greens and Labor supporters should be proud of.

    We’ll never know this for sure, but I strongly believe that Labor would still be in government today were it not for the civil war. All the other issues could be recovered from but not that. People had just had enough and wanted stability again. What did we all end up with instead? The Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison civil war of course! Unbelievable. It’s almost like the Coalition said “wait, hold our beers, Labor! We can screw ourselves over even worse than you just did! Ha!” Un-fricking-believable.

  24. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    Has
    @billshortenmp
    commented on #watergate? Why isn’t it getting more prominence in the campaign?
    9:54 AM · Apr 20, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone
    131
    Retweets
    313
    Likes

    Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    ·
    3h
    Replying to
    @phbarratt
    and
    @billshortenmp
    My media release went out immediately on Thursday night after the first story on
    @theprojecttv
    . We had an agreement on no partisan media for Easter and ANZAC Day. I’ll have a lot more to say in a few days.

  25. Sohar @ #269 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:15 pm

    ‘Morrison refusing to answer questions on #watergate #auspol #ausvotes’
    The media (including the Guardian and the ABC) will say ScoMo is just keeping himself above the fray. Nothing to see here.

    Don’t think that will be enough. There is an awful stink here. The PM not dealing with it looks VERY bad.

  26. Victoria @ #273 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:20 pm

    Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    Has
    @billshortenmp
    commented on #watergate? Why isn’t it getting more prominence in the campaign?
    9:54 AM · Apr 20, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone
    131
    Retweets
    313
    Likes

    Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    ·
    3h
    Replying to
    @phbarratt
    and
    @billshortenmp
    My media release went out immediately on Thursday night after the first story on
    @theprojecttv
    . We had an agreement on no partisan media for Easter and ANZAC Day. I’ll have a lot more to say in a few days.

    Good. Very good.

  27. antonbruckner11 @ #2924 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:05 pm

    It’s interesting how stories like Watergate now percolate up from social media. They gain a foothold there and eventually the MSM can’t ignore it.

    Like the original, #watergate has no brakes and will engulf the Murdorcs. That they have no comeback other than to deny and try to not talk about it says that their shit well is dry. They are as dead as a Menindee CARP(!).

  28. WWP

    Nothing is better than the bad worked.

    Like it or not Climate Legislation was delivered.

    The Greens had zero to do with the internal Labor division.

    The Greens had nothing to do with the hard right taking over the LNP

  29. WeWantPaul @ #271 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:19 pm

    The Gillard-Milne-Indy progressive govt could still be in power if but for the internal treachery of the ALP.

    The legislated clean energy package would have seen Australia leading the way in transitioning the workforce over to a clean energy powerhouse

    That is your conclusion, one I find insufficiently grounded in reality and do not in anyway accept as an open or reasonable conclusion.

    I understand you have alternative facts.

  31. “Good to see some co-operation between the Greens and Labor.

    I’m sure though our Labor right partisans on PB will be upset.”

    Labor Right Faction’s response…

  33. rhwombat @ #276 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:22 pm

    antonbruckner11 @ #2924 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:05 pm

    It’s interesting how stories like Watergate now percolate up from social media. They gain a foothold there and eventually the MSM can’t ignore it.

    Like the original, #watergate has no brakes and will engulf the Murdorcs. That they have no comeback other than to deny and try to not talk about it says that their shit well is dry. They are as dead as a Menindee CARP(!).

    Yes, as the guardian says, nobody has been able to explain why they spent $80 million for this water. Unless they can, they are totally stuffed.

  34. Just reading the Saturday Paper piece on GetUp by Seccombe and the only conclusion I get is that more and more Labor rank and file members will transition their membership over to GetUp due to the strangle hold of power within the ALP continuing to be kept by a few unions.

  36. Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    ·
    6h
    Angus Taylor’s threats to sue those raising these issues is looking a little frantic.
    Quote Tweet

    Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    · 20h
    Angus Taylor YESTERDAY: “has never had a direct or indirect financial interest in EAA or any assoc’d company.”

    TODAY: He was also a consultant for EAA 09/10 “on normal commercial terms”.

    TONIGHT: there’s a difference between ‘an interest’ & being paid as consultant. #auspol
    Image

  37. People can persuade themselves that black is white if it suits them. Tweep this morn argued that the floodwater was river flow and therefore Barnaby had done nothing wrong in buying it back.

  38. Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    · 20h
    Angus Taylor YESTERDAY: “has never had a direct or indirect financial interest in EAA or any assoc’d company.”

    TODAY: He was also a consultant for EAA 09/10 “on normal commercial terms”.

    TONIGHT: there’s a difference between ‘an interest’ & being paid as consultant. #auspol
    Image

    What is he hiding?!

  39. Hmmm

    Alex Turnbull
    @alexbhturnbull
    Guys pour one out for
    @AngusTaylorMP
    and his career. The digital footprints on his wiki are the end of him. #auspol

  41. Lizzie

    It can be above board. Barnaby Joyce and Angus Taylor can front up to the public and explain everything. Simple really

  43. Joyce has got the safest seat in the country.It wouldnt matter if he bankrupted everyone in New England,he would still be the greatest.

  44. Quite right, Victoria. Both Barnaby and Taylor can clear this up with a simple media appearance.

    Taylor was asked about all this the other day at a press conference, but he didn’t look very convincing.

  45. By the way he talks, Di Natale seems to unaware of these “secret” deals:

    Bill Shorten ‘struck deal with Greens’

    Scott Morrison accuses Bill Shorten of clinching a deal with the Greens to rush through key tax and climate change policies.

    15 MINUTES AGO By GREG BROWN

  48. Scott Morrison accuses Bill Shorten of clinching a deal with the Greens to rush through key tax and climate change policies.

    His argument is “don’t vote for Labor, they’ll actually be effective”?

  49. steve davis @ #2953 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:48 pm

    Joyce has got the safest seat in the country.It wouldnt matter if he bankrupted everyone in New England,he would still be the greatest.

    This isn’t about New England – they are shackled to their dead carp, and will die with it. This is about the stench of Joyce contaminating every other member of the GReedy Arsholes & Spivs Party. Which it will.

  50. ‘Firefox says:
    Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 2:01 pm

    “Firefox
    Go through all the visuals in that vid, and in the upper left hand side of one of the takes there is clearly a drilling rig drawn onto the top of Uluru.”

    I posted a photo, not a video. The rig is clearly in front of Uluru. The intent of it to defend Uluru and surrounding areas is also very clear. Once again you’ve shown your hatred for the Greens clouds all else. We and others are trying to protect Uluru. Full stop. To try and imply otherwise is disgraceful.’

    Try looking at it from the Indigenous point of view.

    Do you don’t ‘protect’ Indigenous values by trashing them by drawing a (fake) rig on top of Uluru as depicted in the video you are defending?

    Further, that fake picture of a rig within sight (and sound) of Uluru is not possible. The reasons are numerous that there would be enough litigation to keep everyone going until 2100: listed sacred sites under the Act; World Heritage legislation protections; protection under the National Parks regulations; protections by way of triggers for the EPBC Act, and, finally, commercial protections. The company that owns Yulara would sue the arse off any attempt to put a drilling rig on the sunset viewing location. The rest of the NT tourism industry would go apeshit.

    The image of a drilling rig on top of Uluru is not only a lie, it is disrespectful to Indigenous values.
    The image of a drilling rig in the vicinity of the sunset viewing area is also a lie because it is not possible.

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