Happy trails

As the election campaign enters a hiatus, a look at where the leaders have been and why.

As the Easter/Anzac Day suspension of hostilities begins, it may be instructive to look at where the leaders have travelled during the campaign’s preliminary phase. Featured over the fold is a display listing the electorates that have been targeted, as best as I can tell, and a very brief summary of what they were up to while they were there. Certain entries are in italics where it is seems clear that the area was not targeted for its electoral sensitivity, such as Bill Shorten’s visit to Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project to get some good vision presenting him as a champion of infrastructure, which happened to place him in the unloseable Labor seat of Gellibrand. There are also a few entries that clearly targeted more than one electorate, in which case the margin for the secondary elected is listed on a second line.

What stands out is that Scott Morrison has hit a number of Labor-held seats, consistent with the optimistic impression the Liberals are presenting about their prospects – an assessment which, on this evidence, does not look to be fully shared by Labor. The only activity of Shorten’s that had Labor territory as its primary target was his visit to the Northern Territory on Thursday. Of equal interest to Shorten’s pattern of travel is the clarity of Labor’s early campaign theme of health policy, in contrast of the grab bag of messages promoted by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

720 comments on “Happy trails”

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  1. EGW @ #149 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:49 am

    Late Riser @ #144 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:45 am

    EGW, thanks for that. The need to enrol by a particular date would seem more of a nuisance than a hindrance.

    They have to close the rolls at some point I suppose as they supply their staff with printed versions to cross off voters as they vote.
    Although on reflection, they could treat anyone not showing up on the printed roll as a ‘provisional vote’ until they establish the circumstances as at the date of the election. Would add to the work and time taken in finalising counts though.

    I was musing there about what was ‘possible’. Of course the Electoral Act is the authority and may need amendment to allow some of what I thought ‘possible’.

  2. On Back Roads this week the town being visited was Lightning Ridge.
    One of the citizens who was interviewed manufactures didgeridoos.
    Boy did he go to town on non-Indigenous people who were manufacturing fake didges and undercutting his market!
    As we all know misappropriation of Indigenous IP is rife.
    But that might not necessarily be racist.
    The thieves might just steal stuff of anyone, regardless of race.
    You never know.
    It might just be straight out theft.

  3. Dirty tricks! Who would have thought?

    This time, the Liberals have employed a company to drive around small trucks with a very unflattering picture of Bill Shorten, with the aim to disrupt any media events planned by the Opposition Leader.

    One such truck turned up outside Casey Hospital in the outer suburban Melbourne seat of La Trobe. The assembled media noted its presence and quickly worked out the driver’s plan: to take his truck behind Shorten as he got up to speak.

    So several journalists headed over to the driver to ask him about his views on Shorten and the ALP. After a couple of single word answers, the truck fled, with the message not making it into the night’s television bulletins.

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/egos-micro-management-subterfuge-on-the-buses-with-morrison-and-shorten-20190419-p51fki.html

  4. “Forget about the Greens holding these democracy thieves to account.
    What about the AFP holding them account?”

    A federal ICAC is urgently needed. Now there is a policy that the Greens and Labor should be able to work well together on, considering it’s a long held Greens’ policy which they’ve tried to implement multiple times before. Now that Labor apparently supports it too we should have no problem getting it through the parliament at last. It’s long overdue.

  5. GG

    ‘Yesterday was a holiday and both major parties did not advertise. The stuff on Friday would have been written on Thursday.

    There’s a bit of a rumble around Watergate and the false news email re labor’s secret Death taxes agenda. But, that was all on social media.’

    Well, that would explain the return to what passes for reason in the Daily Telegraph.

  6. Corruption is a serious problem. Nancy Pelosi doesn’t seem to understand that. Passing articles of impeachment would send a powerful message that corruption is unacceptable. The hearings involved in impeachment proceedings would gather valuable evidence to document the corruption that has occurred. This would be useful because it would highlight ways of preventing these kinds of corrupt practices from happening again.

  7. The only ICAC that will happen is one that happens under a Labor Government.
    Don’t waste your vote on fake ICACs.
    If you want a real ICAC vote 1, Labor.

  8. ‘Nicholas says:
    Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 11:57 am

    Corruption is a serious problem. Nancy Pelosi doesn’t seem to understand that.’

    Yeah. Yeah.
    Someone who has been in Washington for decades does not understand that corruption is a serious problem. What Dems like Pelosi need are some Australian Greens to teach them how to hold Trump accountable.

  9. ‘It was filmed in the wake of those highly publicised attacks in Melbourne against Indian students. ‘

    Which were just that. The incidence of attacks on Indian students were no greater than the incidence of attacks on anyone else. It’s just that if you highlight every attack on a particular group, a perception is created that that group is being targeted.

    As for your ’25 – 50%’ comment, I’d suggest you need to meet more Australians and not assume that your own group is representative of the whole. (Of course, I realise that you’re actually doing the reverse – you’re assuming that the Australians who you don’t mix with are ‘worse’ than you. They’re not).

  10. @sarahinthesen8
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    I am writing to the Auditor General today requesting an urgent audit into all water purchases signed off by Barnaby Joyce. The Auditor has a responsibility to investigate how $80m of tax payers money was paid for water that doesn’t exist. We need a Royal Commission. #watergate

    Barnaby’s Country Party will get destroyed by the SFF

  11. “The only ICAC that will happen is one that happens under a Labor Government.
    Don’t waste your vote on fake ICACs.
    If you want a real ICAC vote 1, Labor.”

    And here we go again. I try to be constructive and suggest that the Greens and Labor should be able to work together to finally make an ICAC happen and this is the Labor response.

    We could have had a real ICAC many years ago if Labor had voted with the Greens to implement one instead of voting with the Coalition to block it. It’s great that Labor now supports one. I really mean that. Let’s just do it and stop this bullshit.

  12. Most of the election commentary along tbe lines of “Shorten had a horrendous week”, or “Shorten struggles after gaffe” is for the very laziest of punters out there: the ones too lazy to even read the headlines, unless they are four inches high on page one next to a footy story. Headlines on pages anything after page 1 are not even seen, much less read.

    So, if the general idea is that Shorten had a “bad week”, then conversely ScoMo must have had a *good* week, and he must have “good” policies, as opposed to Shorten’s “bad” ones.

    Journos like Crowe take this a little further. In an article that actually purported to be about how, don’t be mistaken, Shorten was still cruising home, we were told that despite ScoMo being relaxed and at home, in his element etc, on the campaign trail, and despite Shorten making gaffe after gaffe, reacting awkwardly to people (presumably because he is not a “people person” like the affable ScoMo obviously is), Shorten was still winning, so be on guard, and so on. The article pretending to be *sort of* in favour of Shorten actually was a shit sheet on the manifest unbelievability of a Shorten victory.

    You don’t have to know anything about policy. All you have to know is that

    ● Shorten is making gaffes (plays to the “Shifty Bill” meme);

    ● Shorten is awkward in company (plays to the “Unlikeabill” meme);

    ● Shorten is falling for the same Climate Scare Campaign that Rudd and Gillard fell for (from Hartcher, this one – plays to the “too dumb or not tricky enough to be PM” meme);

    ● Journos don’t like Shorten (so there must be something wrong with him if *nobody* likes him); or

    ● All politicians are crooks (plays to the “Stay with the devil you know” meme).

    These people are professionals. Once they gain the trust of lazy voters, the rest is easy. Out of all the plays outlined above, probably the most dangerous is the last: “They’re all as bad as each other.” That’s why you read it daily in News Corp newspapers.

  13. I’m yet to encounter a Country or culture that doesn’t exhibit some forms of racism.

    In some places it’s obvious and open, in others it’s quite targeted at a particular group, while in others it’s lying there just below the surface.

    Australia isn’t unique with the racism that exists, but it shares one feature of Western democracies and that is it is more likely to be recognised and called out as being unacceptable. 🙂

  14. psyclaw
    That would be the same crowd that did the fracking in the NT vid.
    Inter alia the NT vid had an image of Uluru with a fracking drill unit on top of Uluru.
    They used several images of Uluru.
    I wonder whether they cleared this with the owners.
    This is, IMO, a despicable abuse of Indigenous intellectual property.
    The second thing is that there will NEVER be a fracking drill located on the top of Uluru.
    Not a sight gag but a site lie.
    When you do a line of holier-than-thou sarcasm you had better make certain you are in the clear.
    Apart from that the supercilious smart arse tone of the presenter gives me the irrits.

  15. On racism in France vs the UK, may I present Exhibit A, Marine le Pen. Whilst the UK has unpleasant right-wingers aplenty, I don’t think any party quite so openly fascist is quite so close to forming a significant part of government.

  16. lizzie @ #148 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:47 am

    @MsRebeccaRobins
    12h12 hours ago

    So I’m hearing that snr liberals are happy with #Watergate it’s taking heat off policies that will really hurt those on welfare big plans if LNP gets reelected cashless card for everyone on welfare will make watergate feel like a drop in the bucket

    Will they sacrifice Barnaby to save the cashless welfare card? (Trick question).

    I would hazard a guess that this is fake news – at least for pensioners.
    It would alienate a lot of their remaining voters.
    It costs $10,000 per card. It would be a major new cost impost – but a windfall for Indue.

  17. Is internet in Sydney particularly crap right now because of the holidays – all the kids at home playing on computers? It has been dreadful for a few days where I live.
    Was speaking to a friend this morning who works in industrial design. His firm wants important software created in HK. The HK suppliers said they are not going to bother making an Australian version because our bandwidth is so crap. Thank you very much, Malcolm, you turd.

  18. Roderick Campbell on Twitter.

    Current excitement is about an $80m ‘strategic water purchase’, which Joyce made as water minister in 2017.
    @AngusTaylorMP’s old company Eastern Australian Agriculture made a $52m profit on the deal.
    Taylor was not involved in EEA in 2017 & I allege no wrongdoing on his part.
    * * *
    Taylor’s involvement isn’t the point – point is that EEA is a well-connected corporation.
    To understand the #auspol of the #MurrayDarling you need to realise that it isn’t about upstream vs down, farming vs env, or ALP vs LNP.
    It’s about the powerful vs everyone else.
    * * *

    With rad haggling skilz, Joyce’s dpt bargained the price of EEA’s water UP from $2,200 to $2,750/ML, turning a $28m deal into a $79m deal.
    Worse, gov lacks infrastructure & legal power to get this water to the rivers that need it. Full write up:

    That’s just 1 of at least 3 similar deals.

    Deal 2 was in Menindee…where the million dead fish once lived.

    It involves Webster, a company chaired by businessman Chris Corrigan, of 1990s warf fame.
    * * *

    New conversation

    Roderick Campbell
    ‏In June 2015, Webster bought an irrigation property near Menindee. Come June 2017 Joyce signed off on $38 million for water licences, plus $40 million in ‘compensation’ for loss of future business.
    Webster booked a $36 million profit on the transaction

    The gov paying for the water as well as compo is like selling your car to the for $1,000 and then asking for another $1,000 to cover your taxi fares.

    No other farm/irrigator/company in the Basin has ever landed a compo deal like this, AFAWK.

    But wait there’s more – Webster got extra water to grow a $35m cotton crop.

    Needless to say, the fish didn’t fare so well, neither did other local irrigators, farmers, indigenous nations or the local community.

    Deal 3.

    In 2008 a certain politician criticised a Labor water deal in the Warrego River saying it would “have no effect whatsoever in solving the problems of the lower Murray-Darling”.

    Fast-forward to 2017 and this same pollie was known as Water Minister @Barnaby_Joyce.

    Under Joyce, we spent $17m of taxpayer money buying water out of the Warrego River with no reference whatsoever to his earlier views, or that he/we paid nearly twice the 2008 price per litre.

  19. Investor-state dispute settlement provisions should be abolished.

    The national government does not owe any particular firm a particular profit margin.

    The national government’s job is to make and enforce rules that serve public purposes. If doing that reduces some firms’ profit margins, so be it.

    A US energy company’s controversial and unprecedented attempt to sue the Australian government has collapsed, leaving taxpayers with a $44,000 bill.

    In 2017 Florida-based APR Energy became the first company to attempt to sue the Australian government under the Australia-US free trade agreement, demanding $344m in compensation for Australia’s treatment of its gas turbines.

    The action was made possible by deeply controversial provisions contained in many trade deals – known as investor-state dispute settlement, or ISDS – that allow foreign corporations to sue a government for actions or policies that hurt them commercially.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/20/us-companys-attempt-to-sue-australian-government-collapses

  20. antonbruckner

    I’m stuck on 4G. I get 5Mpbs on a good day. This weekend I’m getting more like 1-2Mbps.

    Do you have a link to the HK story?

  21. “Which were just that. The incidence of attacks on Indian students were no greater than the incidence of attacks on anyone else. It’s just that if you highlight every attack on a particular group, a perception is created that that group is being targeted.”

    Have you even watched the show? You might be surprised that that’s exactly the conclusion they ended up coming to as well. Go and actually watch it before jumping on me.

    “As for your ’25 – 50%’ comment, I’d suggest you need to meet more Australians and not assume that your own group is representative of the whole. (Of course, I realise that you’re actually doing the reverse – you’re assuming that the Australians who you don’t mix with are ‘worse’ than you. They’re not).”

    Nah it’s just a rough but informed guess. Like I said, it’s very difficult to put an accurate number on something like that. If we go on support for political parties which are known to be racist then you can get a pretty good idea. One Nation + a very large chunk of the Coalition + Australian Conservatives + all the other far right minors (ALA, UAP, UPF, etc…). There would be some in Labor who are racist too, although not nearly as many. And yes, there may even be a handful in the Greens too. Unfortunately, racism is everywhere. On the flip side though, even if it is as high as 50% that also means that half the country is not racist. There are many good people in this country.

  22. Tristo
    however Americans are much more open about the racism in their society than we are.

    You’ve clearly never been to the American South. The denial of the existence of any and all racism, and, in particular, the denial of the enduring after-effects of slavery and Jim Crow, is endemic amongst white southerners.

  23. Media
    Likes
    Michael West’s Tweets

    Michael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    ·
    18m
    Okay then DAWR. 1. Why did you negotiate directly with the Caymans company? 2. Please tell us what the EAA directors’ valuation was for these water rights? How much more did you pay? #Watergate
    Quote Tweet

    Suzie Gold
    @GoldSuzie
    · 2h
    Media statement on Eastern Australian Agriculture water purchase – Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (link: http://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/media-centre/on-the-record/eastern-aus-ag-water-purchase) agriculture.gov.au/about/media-ce…

  24. BB

    Good analysis, IMO. As you say, this is the nub:

    ‘These people are professionals. Once they gain the trust of lazy voters, the rest is easy. Out of all the plays outlined above, probably the most dangerous is the last: “They’re all as bad as each other.” That’s why you read it daily in News Corp newspapers.’

    You will recall one of your memes being of politicians pretending not to be politicians. This has morphed into Morrison’s Canberra Bubble. Morrison, mysteriously, does not live, work and breathe the Canberra Bubble.

    The other three purveyors of same same are: PHON, ‘please explain’; $50 million worth of advertising by the UAP along the lines that they are all bad; and, the Greens with their Lib Lab Same Same mantras. Although they have gone off that one a bit. These days from the Greens it is mostly just Lab Lab Old Old Same Same combined with Lab bad, and therefore only Lab being in desperate need of the Greens to hold them to account.

  25. Boerwar, your constant right wing inspired attacks on the Greens are most tiresome and are not doing you any favours. The Greens are about as far from the Coalition as you can possibly get. They absolutely hate us and visa versa. You can pretend otherwise if you wish but that’s the reality of the situation.

  26. The problem with that satrical coalition piss take is that it repeats the surplus myth.
    That’s stupid. Punters think surpluses are good. So they make the allowance for all the other stuff by thinking…yeah but…etc. Would have been far better to point out there is no surplus only a forecast, and we all know how forecasts work out.

  27. Cud Chewer @ #181 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 12:14 pm

    antonbruckner

    I’m stuck on 4G. I get 5Mpbs on a good day. This weekend I’m getting more like 1-2Mbps.

    Do you have a link to the HK story?

    No, it’s just something I heard while chatting in a cafe! Don’t know the details.
    Be interesting to know if the whole non-fibre system is just having a holiday melt-down. Welcome to the future!

  28. Loved the “media Statement” from DAWR.

    They have “decommissioned” structure that let them hold the overland flows, but St George is benefiting from mods that let those get used for flood control.?

    code for: We will continue to gather all the overland flows any time we want, especially when no-one is looking.

  29. It is interesting that the most powerful media company in the world has lost control of the agenda because of social media.

    And one honest man.

    Aorta give him the Order of Australia for speaking truth to power.

  30. Oh and Boerwar, you’re again showing your hatred of green activists and disregard for the environment and the rights of First Australians by attacking people who are trying to protect Uluru and the lands surrounding it (indeed all land in Australia for that matter). Only you could see protecting hugely culturally and spirituality significant sites as a bad thing.

    You’re also grossly misrepresenting the image I think you’re referring to. The drill was NOT put on top of Uluru, it’s CLEARLY in front of it. I make absolutely no apologies for posting this and DEFENDING this vital national treasure which means so much to so many people. Shame on you for misrepresenting this as you have and trying to use it to further your agenda of hatred towards the Greens.

  31. I decided to look at the Hartcher article that BB brought up n

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-climate-reckoning-is-coming-to-our-political-hothouse-20190419-p51fph.html

    As you can see from the headline.
    Hartcher is actually saying what Jeff was saying the other day.
    He spreads the blame around.
    He rightly sheets most of the blame on the major parties because they are the major parties.

    They are the ones that set the agenda the most.
    As GG and BW to name two are fond of pointing out

  32. Alaska is in the midst of one of the warmest springs the state has ever experienced — a transformation that has disrupted livelihoods and cost lives. The average temperature for March recorded at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observatory in Utqiagvik (which was known as Barrow before 2016, when the city voted to go by its traditional Inupiaq name) was 18.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

    Fairbanks, Alaska, notched its first consecutive March days when the temperature never dropped below freezing. Ice roads built on frozen waterways — a vital means of transportation in the state — have become weak and unreliable. At least five people have died this spring after falling through ice that melted sooner than expected.

    “Climate change is happening faster than it’s ever happened before in our record,” Thomas said. “We’re right in the middle of it.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/04/19/one-alaskas-warmest-springs-record-is-causing-dangerous-thaw/?utm_term=.e0706c9be865

  33. Ven
    There are around a quarter of a million Indian citizens living without electricity.
    There are two models: centralized power generation combined with centralized control of the distribution infrastructure. Both of these would have the intrinsic element of disempowering Indian citizens.
    Decentralized generation by way of local solar combined with local battery and local distribution controlled at village level would be much cheaper and vastly more to be preferred as an option.
    You are right. Whenever the Right start crying tears for the poor, they are lying.

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