Happy trails

As the election campaign enters a hiatus, a look at where the leaders have been and why.

As the Easter/Anzac Day suspension of hostilities begins, it may be instructive to look at where the leaders have travelled during the campaign’s preliminary phase. Featured over the fold is a display listing the electorates that have been targeted, as best as I can tell, and a very brief summary of what they were up to while they were there. Certain entries are in italics where it is seems clear that the area was not targeted for its electoral sensitivity, such as Bill Shorten’s visit to Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project to get some good vision presenting him as a champion of infrastructure, which happened to place him in the unloseable Labor seat of Gellibrand. There are also a few entries that clearly targeted more than one electorate, in which case the margin for the secondary elected is listed on a second line.

What stands out is that Scott Morrison has hit a number of Labor-held seats, consistent with the optimistic impression the Liberals are presenting about their prospects – an assessment which, on this evidence, does not look to be fully shared by Labor. The only activity of Shorten’s that had Labor territory as its primary target was his visit to the Northern Territory on Thursday. Of equal interest to Shorten’s pattern of travel is the clarity of Labor’s early campaign theme of health policy, in contrast of the grab bag of messages promoted by Scott Morrison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

720 comments on “Happy trails”

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  1. Maybe BK can instigate a truth in political statement award, might call it the Sarah Huckabee Sanders award .
    First recipient Cash followed by Taylor

  2. Yep.
    Just like the RC Rudd called into the Wheat for Weapons scandal….oh, wait

    Labor will introduce a cream puff commission to smack those naughty tories on the botty….

  3. Boerwar @ #97 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 10:43 am

    Weird stuff.
    Yesterday I scanned the DT from one end to another and the only politically relevant articles were rabidly anti-Labor.
    Today I could hardly find any politically-relevant articles at all.
    Chalk and cheese.
    Were the journalists all attending religious celebrations?
    What?
    ‘The Australian’ had the usual rabid mad-dog anti-Labor, anti-Shorten memes running. I assume that most of ‘The Australian’s’ journalists are closet Greens. Hard to pick, really, because they say the same things as the Greens do.

    Yesterday was a holiday and both major parties did not advertise. The stuff on Friday would have been written on Thursday.

    There’s a bit of a rumble around Watergate and the false news email re labor’s secret Death taxes agenda. But, that was all on social media.

  4. Watching Shorten on ABC24. Presser on penalty rates, climate, death tax??, he’s in the groove and doing well.

    Ahhh….direct q on $80M water buyback. YES!!!!!!

  5. “Ahhh….direct q on $80M water buyback. YES!!!!!!”

    Can MSM ignore it now its hit the campaign trail?? Shorten links this to an ICAC.

    This makes it a good day campaigning for the ALP.

    Jornos want to know what ScoMo should be called on to do over the buyback stuff.

  6. “Bad timing. It’s holiday weekend. Nobody is watching.”

    True, but its all going to be in the mainstream reporting and maybe drive some of the questions journos ask of ScoMo. Of course NO WAY wil the PM of the moment stuff up any responses…………. 🙂

  7. “Shorten being attacked for not providing a direct figure for emissions reducton, over and bloody over.”

    Yup, but he’s now gone to the argument that those q’s are bollocks and ALP policy will result in a net benefit to the economy, not a net cost. 🙂

  8. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 10:43 am

    Weird stuff.
    Yesterday I scanned the DT from one end to another and the only politically relevant articles were rabidly anti-Labor.
    Today I could hardly find any politically-relevant articles at all.
    Chalk and cheese.
    Were the journalists all attending religious celebrations?
    What?
    ‘The Australian’ had the usual rabid mad-dog anti-Labor, anti-Shorten memes running. I assume that most of ‘The Australian’s’ journalists are closet Greens. Hard to pick, really, because they say the same things as the Greens do.

    Isn’t it obvious.

    There were no liberal media releases or interviews, so if they wanted to do a story they would have to think of one and write it themselves. 🙂

  9. Shorten now doing the bipartisan…..”i’ll take their ideas if they are good ones” line. 🙂

    And the water buyback stuff has legs i reckon. 🙂

    Maybe they will get Uncle Arfur SeeNoDonors to address that?? 🙂

  10. “No one is watching News 24 at 11am on a Saturday… Easter or not.”

    Its the grabs from it, and the wider reporting articles, even cartoons that will have the effect. 🙂

    And i think this one is important because it gets the MDB Buyback Corruption stuff into the mix in a way that the MSM cant really ignore.

    “Opposition Leader calls for Taylor and Joyce to face ICAC and explain their Cayman Is Connections” has more truth in it as a headline than “ALP DEATH TAX”. 🙂

  11. J341983

    So imacca and I are ‘no one’? Don’t be silly. Our hope is, naturally, that this might be picked up by later newscasts.

  12. “J341983 says:
    Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 11:10 am
    No one is watching News 24 at 11am on a Saturday… Easter or not.”

    Yes we are.

    Do we need a life?

  13. J341983 says:
    Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 11:10 am

    No one is watching News 24 at 11am on a Saturday… Easter or not.

    Obviously a false statement as someone is commenting on what they are showing. 😆

  14. I have a casual question on voter registration, because from the comments I’m reading it seems that the process has changed. The first time I voted (1975) I fronted up at a booth and identified myself. I wasn’t on the list. My details were taken and I was allowed to vote. The next time my name was on the list, and has been since.

    I was out of the country from 1993 to 2011. Did something change? Did I get lucky in 1975? Just curious. 🙂

  15. Andrew, FYI I responded to you in the previous thread. I don’t feel the need to repeat myself again here.

    ***

    “So if Labor has to compromise by negotiating that’s fascism according to GG.

    Says more about GG’s thinking than mine.”

    So true. Anyone calling EITHER Greens or Labor supporters fascists is just ridiculous. Some of the nonsense rusted on Labor supporters come up with as a result of their hatred for the Greens is ludicrous. They seem to think they are just automatically entitled to our unwavering and unquestioning support. When we raise legitimate concerns about crucial policy areas, such as climate change, some of them just lose their minds and have a tantrum. Labor supporters everywhere should take lessons from the ACT Labor party on how to act constructively with the Greens and achieve great outcomes in the process. Labor and the Greens CAN work together. It’s a two way street though. I’ve said it before; the Greens are NOT the like the Nationals are to the Liberals – we aren’t just here to make up the numbers in a coalition with Labor.

  16. lizzie @ #108 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:03 am

    Buyback at last!!

    Shorten being attacked for not providing a direct figure for emissions reducton, over and bloody over.

    If I were advising him I would suggest that it is not an item of government expenditure and it will be determined by decisions made by individuals and companies. It is up to them to make the best decisions to achieve emissions reductions at least cost. An ALP Governement will assist them to do so.

  17. For what it is worth, the current ABC on-line news does not have an election issue anywhere in the first 10 or more items.
    Meanwhile, Paul Murray in the West is now having second thoughts about Shorten winning. He “had put the binoculars down” but, as he opined, Shorten had an horrendos week. Meanwhile, his own rag has the “Who won the day?” as 4 to Morrison, 2 to Shorten and 1 for a Tie. Given that the first point won, was by that of Morrison merely naming the election date, and the Tie was given for both M and S agreeing to debate, I just wonder whether Mooner bothers to read his own ex-paper or he is just doing Stokes his normal favours to bash Labor. Is anybody out there really listening, watching, paying attention, giving a stuff at this point?

  18. “Sohar @ #82 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 10:16 am

    ‘…here’s a ‘racism map”’
    That map is laughable. France more racist than Britain or the US? What the?

    From my limited experience in FNQ, that area should have glowed and incandescent red – beyond the published scale.”

    Depends on peoples perspective of “differences”.

    It brings to mind the Blues Brothers movie, where in preparation for a music gig the pub owner says that (paraphrasing) the crowd likes both types of music – country and western”.

    I grew up in an area and era where “differences” meant methodist, catholic, or anglican – at least that was as broad as most people seemed to be able to grasp (and they weren’t at all happy with the “perceived” diversity then).

  19. Extracts from Shorten’s presser will be on the news later today and this evening. While a lot of people go away for Easter, a lot more stay at home.

  20. Tricot @ #131 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:28 am

    For what it is worth, the current ABC on-line news does not have an election issue anywhere in the first 10 or more items.
    Meanwhile, Paul Murray in the West is now having second thoughts about Shorten winning. He “had put the binoculars down” but, as he opined, Shorten had an horrendos week. Meanwhile, his own rag has the “Who won the day?” as 4 to Morrison, 2 to Shorten and 1 for a Tie. Given that the first point won, was by that of Morrison merely naming the election date, and the Tie was given for both M and S agreeing to debate, I just wonder whether Mooner bothers to read his own ex-paper or he is just doing Stokes his normal favours to bash Labor. Is anybody out there really listening, watching, paying attention, giving a stuff at this point?

    Only, you.

  21. citizen

    We’re being told (by Telstra) that news is available anywhere, anytime. In a tent, up a mountain, in the outback… 😆

  22. imacca @ #112 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:06 am

    “Shorten being attacked for not providing a direct figure for emissions reducton, over and bloody over.”

    Yup, but he’s now gone to the argument that those q’s are bollocks and ALP policy will result in a net benefit to the economy, not a net cost. 🙂

    Absolutely!
    Plus he might try a rhetorical question about the costs of doing nothing and point to insurance premiums rising due to climate damage.

  23. lizzie says:

    citizen

    We’re being told (by Telstra) that news is available anywhere, anytime. In a tent, up a mountain, in the outback…

    For some reason I feel it should be in full……………….

    We’re being told (by Telstra) that news is available anywhere, anytime. In a tent, up a mountain, in the outback. Resistance is futile.

  24. “Plus he might try a rhetorical question about the costs of doing nothing and point to insurance premiums rising due to climate damage.”

    He pretty much did in that last appearance.

  25. Late Riser @ #128 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    I have a casual question on voter registration, because from the comments I’m reading it seems that the process has changed. The first time I voted (1975) I fronted up at a booth and identified myself. I wasn’t on the list. My details were taken and I was allowed to vote. The next time my name was on the list, and has been since.

    I was out of the country from 1993 to 2011. Did something change? Did I get lucky in 1975? Just curious. 🙂

    In 1975 your vote would have been placed in an envelope and held until your eligibility had been confirmed.
    The same would happen if you voted now and were not on the printed roll at the polling booth.
    The only thing that changed was your presence on the printed roll.

  26. SHY does something useful.

    Sarah Hanson-Young

    Verified account

    @sarahinthesen8
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    I am writing to the Auditor General today requesting an urgent audit into all water purchases signed off by Barnaby Joyce. The Auditor has a responsibility to investigate how $80m of tax payers money was paid for water that doesn’t exist. We need a Royal Commission. #watergate

  27. Barney in Mui Ne @ #128 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:07 am

    Boerwar says:
    Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 10:43 am

    Weird stuff.
    Yesterday I scanned the DT from one end to another and the only politically relevant articles were rabidly anti-Labor.
    Today I could hardly find any politically-relevant articles at all.
    Chalk and cheese.
    Were the journalists all attending religious celebrations?
    What?
    ‘The Australian’ had the usual rabid mad-dog anti-Labor, anti-Shorten memes running. I assume that most of ‘The Australian’s’ journalists are closet Greens. Hard to pick, really, because they say the same things as the Greens do.

    Isn’t it obvious.

    There were no liberal media releases or interviews, so if they wanted to do a story they would have to think of one and write it themselves. 🙂

    BiMN: It’s the other way around. The GRASPer media releases are coming from inside the Rupert House. The LNP is just the (non-IPA) face of the Murdorcs. I think they’ve run out of shit to throw, just when the Beetroot Monster and his little mate Angus the Caymans Cowboy little scam is being unearthed – and there’s no alternate distraction to bullshit seat polls in Bass.

  28. Cud:

    I am writing to the Auditor General today requesting an urgent audit into all water purchases signed off by Barnaby Joyce. The Auditor has a responsibility to investigate how $80m of tax payers money was paid for water that doesn’t exist. We need a Royal Commission. #watergate

  29. Yep, on costs.

    What was the cost of the floods in north Qld?

    What was the cost of the last cyclone?

    What’s the cost of the current drought?

    etc

    Science suggests these events will become either more severe or more frequent.

    They’re the costs of not acting!

    That is the Liberal’s approach.

  30. As for the racism topic, I think many Australians are indeed racist. Many are not though. We do absolutely have a problem with racism. It’s very hard to put a number on it but I’d say that somewhere between 25-50% of Australians are openly and aggressively racist. There’s also passive racists – those who are not consciously trying to be racist and probably mean no harm but definitely do cause people harm.

    There was a great show awhile back called “Dumb, Drunk and Racist” which took a group of Indians on a tour around Australia to see what they thought. It was filmed in the wake of those highly publicised attacks in Melbourne against Indian students. Highly recommended watching it.

    Another revealing program is the “Go Back to Where You Came From” series which follows the steps asylum seekers have to take to get here in reverse. It is incredible to see how even some far right racists can change their minds and become more tolerant when they themselves are confronted with the harsh reality of the situation asylum seekers face. Again, it’s a must watch show.

  31. @MsRebeccaRobins
    12h12 hours ago

    So I’m hearing that snr liberals are happy with #Watergate it’s taking heat off policies that will really hurt those on welfare big plans if LNP gets reelected cashless card for everyone on welfare will make watergate feel like a drop in the bucket

    Will they sacrifice Barnaby to save the cashless welfare card? (Trick question).

  32. Late Riser @ #144 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 11:45 am

    EGW, thanks for that. The need to enrol by a particular date would seem more of a nuisance than a hindrance.

    They have to close the rolls at some point I suppose as they supply their staff with printed versions to cross off voters as they vote.
    Although on reflection, they could treat anyone not showing up on the printed roll as a ‘provisional vote’ until they establish the circumstances as at the date of the election. Would add to the work and time taken in finalising counts though.

  33. Oh Noes!
    I predict another outbreak of amnesia among Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Government ministers.
    This time Taylor and Joyce will find that they can’t recall a thing.
    I advise them to go to Sinodinos for some practical training on how to catch SAS (Sudden Amnesia Syndrome.)
    If Sinodinos can’t do the job, then Cash and Porter were dab hands at not knowing nuffink about a crime and cover up involving certain persons very, very close to Cash.
    And if Sinodinos, Cash and Porter are useless as role models for Taylor and Joyce, they could ask Christensen for a few points on how not to answer AFP questions.
    Spot the ugliest pattern.
    Forget about the Greens holding these democracy thieves to account.
    What about the AFP holding them account?

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