The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
C@t:
Glad my grant got announced and rushed through before caretaker period announced, as foreshadowed by the relevant Department staff I’ve been dealing with 🙂
I knew as soon as Wayne bot started on here about November that Scotty was going to call it virtually overnight for May 18th.
So Adani was the last thing this miserable govt pushed through the day before calling an election.
Not surprised.
I hope it never goes ahead.
I hope the descision haunts them for all time too.
steve davis @ #651 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:22 pm
Yep. W is a mirror. They turn things inside out.
Did Bill pick up the 50k on the night? or later?
I’m afraid I just don’t feel that confident that enough of my fellow voters are going to see through the deluge of shite that’s coming their way in the next few weeks for Labor to win. The way every media outlet seems to be rooting for Scotty is so sickening.
Zoidlord @ #646 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:15 pm
I doubt it zoid. They were going to ban semi-automatic weapons.
Most media – ABC, SBS, Fairfax, Guardian etc. are pro ALP.
The Australian & SKY are pro coalition.
AFR neutral.
Let’s be honest Mundo, I’d be surprised if you were confident about Labor’s chances.
The ABC pro Labor?
You are joking right?
Labor leader Bill Shorten visited Huang Xiangmo at his Sydney mansion to secure political donations several months after Labor officials were warned the controversial business figure was of interest to ASIO over links to the Chinese government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-visited-home-of-chinese-donor-huang-xiangmo-several-months-after-asio-party-warning-20171203-gzxqps.html
AFR have had very obviously biased reporting on franking credits, suggestive headlines looking for an emotional response repeated most weekends for months.
EGW
from the Guardian
New Zealand MPs overwhelmingly back post-Christchurch gun ban
MPs vote 119-1 to outlaw most semi-automatic weapons and assault rifles
I personally would go by the betting odds.Sometimes the mood on the ground is telling.If Labor blow out to $1.50 and Coalition to $2.00 then I would be worried.
C@t
Funny isn’t it?
The best kept secret in his office, not a soul knew there.All kept in the dark.
LOL!!!
But van Onselen knew.
Bug:
You might be interested in this editorial.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/09/the-guardian-view-on-julian-assange-it-would-be-wrong-to-extradite-him?CMP=share_btn_tw
Red13 @ #189 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 8:33 pm
I knew. And you don’t get furtherer away from Canberra than WA.
I speculate it’s because their internal polling showed a lift from the EV fracas.
mundo
So make sure you’re out there pushing back. Much more productive than despair.
Morrison is still playing us for mugs then? I feel his contempt.
Red13
People at the Oz are the first to know everything the Libs are going to do.There is a hotline between Scotty and Newscorp. The Oz will be coordinating the Lib campaign.
I think Morrison wants to start with a full weekend.
Sceptic @ #663 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:32 pm
Yes.
But high powered rifles not in those categories will still be available legally.
Shorten suggesting improper links between and Huang and Julie Bishop based on a photo.
Labor get a very good run in the mainstream media. It’s frankly hilarious to see Labor supporters speaking as if they’re up against the establishment. You are part of the establishment! Even the Murdoch press (which does undoubtedly favour the Coalition) gives Labor positively glowing praise compared with the dribble they regurgitate daily about the Greens.
Shorten doesn’t do 1 on 1 phots with Huang but visits him surreptitiously at home and attends his daughter’s wedding quietly in the shadows.
Good night folks.I hope the main game is about to start.
Well I do declare nath, you’re getting so flustered, you’d think Senator Keneally was in front of you…
It’s on: PM to call poll
EXCLUSIVE
SIMON BENSON
NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
Scotty has been ringing the hotline to Benson as usual.
“Most media – ABC, SBS, Fairfax, Guardian etc. are pro ALP.”
I’d say SBS and the Guardian are neutral and the ABC and Fairfax right of centre.
The assessment that the AFR (9 Network) is neutral gives commentary to the remainder of the assessment of the bias of media
GB gave an address in Adelaide today – and I wonder how much reporting there will be of that address
GB’s comments supported those of Phillip Lowe
I understand that, in Canberra, Bowen has made reference to the 10 Year Bond Yield and to the level of housing debt in Australia
Bowen’s address was being monitored by some of influence who were in GB’s audience which, to me at least, was its own commentary
There appears a sync between the RBA and the ALP and their respective presentations
I passed obtuse comment on this when Ad Man from Mad Men was on Christmas Island and Lowe and Shorten were on the same stage a couple of weeks back
When the Libs want a dirt file on Shorten they ring Nath. He has a whole filing cabinet full.
nath @ #674 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:41 pm
He makes a good point there. This Huang fellow sure seems to have a knack for showing up around Coalition Ministers. And a history of throwing lots of money around near them.
Occam’s razor says the two things are related. 🙂
Looks like with the election due to be called soon, nath has turned up the bullshit-o-meter.
Why don’t you take your lying scuttlebutt and stick it somewhere. Hopefully you’ll disappear after the election and we can be spared your boring propaganda.
We know who’s side Murdoch is on when it comes to Labor and the Greens…
Yep you can’t make this up.
sprocket_ @ #567 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:26 pm
Do yourself a favour and never meet, in any meaningful sense of the word, your hero’s.
a r @ #577 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
I don’t know how to do the screenshot, at 20:54 my HFC is 95.8/38.5, ping 11 and jitter 1.
I wonder if notion mooted by Antony Green earlier this week that if the government didn’t call the election some State governments might perhaps move to set the Senate election date themselves was starting to get Mr Morrison worried?
Cud Chewer says Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 6:27 pm
Which is pretty much what I said.
Except, you can upgrade people close to the node to G.fast without usng FTTC.
I doubt you could even reuse the pad. The node will still be sitting on it and in use until the replacement infrastructure is in place.
Completely agree.
Confessions, that was a pretty frank editorial by the guardian.
It is getting weird, earlier today wikileaks held press conference explaining they have cooperated with Spanish police to catch a group trying to sell the almost constant video/audio survelance of assange. Included footage of medical exams, meetings with lawyers to discuss strategy in legal case against Ecuador. They water 3m euro, they where asking 8m from other groups.
Problem for assange is that they want him so bad they are willing to break well established precedents, the law they want to charge him with hasn’t been used for over 100 years iirc. They sucesfully pressured a soverign country to get turn on him.
Its wishfull thinking that even the uk legal system will give him a fair trial.
In the eyes of many, Julian won’t be respected until he gets assassinated, its a great tragedy.
Since 2012, Mr Huang and his Yuhu Group are believed to have donated more than $1 million to the ALP.
________________________
Nice coin. Huang’s been a terrific little earner for Labor. Once Shorten’s PM will he get his visa back? watch this space.
Labor banned donation from Huang a few years ago, so nath better get back into your hole now!
So is the election being called tonight or tomorrow?
There was speculation earlier about the Liberals winning Dobell and Lindsay.
According to Sportsbet the Libs are $11.00 to win Dobell.
Lindsay is $1.60 Lab $2.25 Lib.
steve davis @ #695 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 11:05 pm
That means that, according to the odds, they are twice as likely to win the election, as to win Dobell.
Mini-Trump re-elected, apparently:
Sad that people vote for obvious lying crooks. 🙁
I’m so sorry guys I have been a fuckwit
“Holden Hillbilly says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 10:28 pm
Most media – ABC, SBS, Fairfax, Guardian etc. are pro ALP.
The Australian & SKY are pro coalition.
AFR neutral.”
Herald Sun
Telegraph Mirror
Adelaide Advertiser
They all all need to be added to the list, but not in the Labor column
In Bensons report he says the Libs reckon 3 Tasmania seats are in play.They must be deluded.It was a 50-50 result last time and they didnt win any.