Phony war communiques

A pre-campaign assembly of polling and scuttlebutt about the respective parties’ prospects for an election that must surely be called very soon.

The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:

• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.

• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.

• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.

• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.

• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).

• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.

• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

740 comments on “Phony war communiques”

Comments Page 13 of 15
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  1. Tom @ #562 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 8:20 pm

    Late Riser @ #549 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 8:12 pm

    Confessions, please tell me if this is patronising. I don’t mean to be. But the speed you get from a server to your computer will depend on where the server is and how it is connected via the “internet” to you. A nearby server should give you better speed because there are less bottlenecks. But not always. The point that Zeh I think is making is that your useful speed will depend on where the stuff you want is, not where any test server is. So once you know where the stuff is that you want, then testing a server that is also in that area will give you a more meaningful number. But what you’ve established at least is that your “raw” speed is reasonable. So that’s encouraging.

    Yes, but the test that Confessions has done will give her the speed of her system, not of particular servers. A speed test should give the speed of the system. The fact that the effective speed that she is getting when accessing particular servers (i.e. PB) is a reflection of those server’s limitations.

    Well, ambiguity killed the cat, I suppose. What (I think) you’re calling “the system” is what I meant by what “you get from a server to your computer will depend on where the server is and how it is connected via the internet to you”. The speed (it’s really a rate, not a speed) depends on the server itself (how fast it can supply), the “internet” (how fast it can transmit), Confession’s home network, and finally whatever device she is using. So I think we’re in agreement, just using different language?

  3. While you guys are at it whipping out and showing off your huge download speeds, spare a thought for those of us who have no option but a 4G connection that runs at 5Mbps at best and frequently sits there doing nothing.

    I’m not even in a FttN area. I’m sitting here, surrounded by brand new houses in a new housing estate, which has been given copper wiring instead of fibre despite the fact that fibre would have cost the same to install and the whole area is not even getting FttN. Its being offered a satellite connection.

    50 shade of stupid. And to think that people like Bucephalis voted for the idiots who did this..

    Oh and btw.. everyone else in this area has discovered their only option is 4G so they are all hammering it and its getting pitifully slow in the evening. Fuck you Turnbull and all who voted for you.

  4. If scomo wants to see real grunt from a vehicle being driven by electric motors why doesn’t he slither down to one of his mining mates places and watch all those coal trains dragging thousands of tons of dirt across the country.
    All that coal and all the other dirt this country digs up and sends to ports to be taken to customers overseas travels on rail, the big arsed machines that drags all those trains are electric, admittedly diesel electric but as far as I know a big diesel generator makes the electric motors on the wheels turn so I would say that they are hybrid evs at least.

  5. “Natash Stott-Despoya was running true to Greens form tonight.
    Implied Lib Lab same same.
    She just could not fucking bring herself to say that after this election 50% of Labor MPs will be women.
    Bloody Greens wanker.”

    Better late than never I guess but Labor are playing catch-up yet again. 50% of the federal Greens parliamentarians are already women.

    Five women (Waters, Rice, Hanson-Young, Siewert, Faruqi) and five men (Di Natale, Bandt, Whish-Wilson, McKim, Steele-John).

    That’s what equality looks like right now, not what it may hypothetically (I’m using that word a lot today!) look like in the future.

  6. GG

    Been busy – yes polls like that GetUp Kooyong one are always dubious when they don’t just give you everything up front. They ask a series of questions – it is pretty easy to publish those questions and what the answers were.

    A bit hard to be entirely detached when your organization is actively working in the very electorate you are surveying I suppose!

  7. Simon² Katich® says:
    Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 8:45 pm
    Yeah, I used to love that sound, the feel. But now it is just the sound of the planet dying.

    We dont have a choice David. There will still be drag racing etc. But mass produced cars will all need to be electric in the next 20 or so years.

    ANd think of all the peeps who live near to main roads. Imagine the social benefits of improved sleep and air quality.

    Hooray. No more loud exhausts or screaming engines. Just perfect.
    The petrol heads will just have to find some other toys to play with.

    By the way, what will an electric Harley Davidson sound like?

  8. If scomo wants to …

    Scomo just wants to keep telling lies with the fox / news / sky sewer of propaganda in the hope that one of them sticks and swings the small percentage needed to change the result.

    That even 48 per cent of Australians want to reelect this dishonest, incompetent and grossly corrupt govt says a huge amount about us, and it isn’t at all good. We are as dumb as we are racist.

  10. Greensborough Growler @ #119 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    Confessions @ #591 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    A eulogy of sorts more than anything in my view.

    Scott MorrisonVerified account@ScottMorrisonMP
    26m26 minutes ago
    I’m proud of how far our country has come over the past few years. And I know there is still more work for us to do to make life better for all Australians. My vision for Australia is about everyone having the chance to realise their full potential.

    https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1115925058474500097

    That’s not a limosine going to the GG’s residence; it’s a tumbril.

    It’s desperate is what it is.

  11. Anyone else watch the weather report on ABC24 where we were told that temperatures in some parts of WA and SA tomorrow will be 8 degrees above average for this time of year!?!

  13. Re captain GetUp. I like to think I’m pretty social media savvy (to the extent I use it) but if bill shorten and the alp asked me to come up with a strategy, I’d have the good sense to tell them o don’t know what the fuck I’m doing.

    It seems
    These people lack that level of awareness

  17. Such a secret, that The Daily ToiletPaper is embedded in Scotty’s backside..

    “Prime Minister Scott Morrison is tonight planning a surprise visit to Canberra to see the Governor-General before calling the federal election on Thursday.

    The Daily Telegraph can reveal Mr Morrison was planning to fly into Canberra late on Wednesday evening to visit Sir Peter Cosgrove at Yarralumla.

    The trip to see the Governor-General was kept secret, with Mr Morrison keen to avoid the usual fanfare of the nation’s media tracking his journey from The Lodge to Yarralumla.

    Mr Morrison is expected to announce the federal election on Thursday, which will be held on May 18.”

  18. I feel privileged — I just discovered I’ve been blocked by Morrison’s twitter account (and can’t see that ad). Strange – I’ve only ever tweeted directly to that handle once, and was respectful when doing so.

    That said I have retweeted others that might not have been so respectful (though I don’t generally retweet nasty or angry tweets).

  22. WTF is this Scotty Circus?

    .@SharriMarkson: The plan was for @ScottMorrisonMP to go tonight under cover of darkness, without fanfare; then pop up tomorrow in Tasmania and tell the public the election will be on May 18.

    MORE: bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #PMlive

  25. I just saw the Twitter ad Scott Morrison released today. His voice sounds like he has inhaled helium before speaking! Like a little boy’s! 😆

  27. Apparently, Cosgrove told Scotty to piss off – come back in the morning!

    From Sam Maiden

    The Prime Minister’s office now says @ScottMorrisonMP will NOT call on the GG tonight – expectation now first thing in morning

  28. “It’s the kind of thing you dream up after a long night on the booze with Tony Abbott at Harbord Diggers. Must’ve sounded like a good idea at the time.”

    I can so see Abbott and his campaign team coming up with this while off their faces. I imagine it would have been a great meeting of the minds, the like of which the world hasn’t seen since Ashby and Dickson got plastered in Washington and fantasized about grabbing the government by the balls.

  29. jenauthor @ #617 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:39 pm

    I feel privileged — I just discovered I’ve been blocked by Morrison’s twitter account (and can’t see that ad). Strange – I’ve only ever tweeted directly to that handle once, and was respectful when doing so.

    That said I have retweeted others that might not have been so respectful (though I don’t generally retweet nasty or angry tweets).

    The same thing happened to me. I never followed Morrison before he became PM but as soon as I tried to I found that I was already Blocked!

  30. Please pull the trigger tomorrow morning!

    10 News FirstVerified account@10NewsFirst
    4h4 hours ago
    Speculation about the timing of the Federal Election ramped right up today. The chatter in Canberra is Scott Morrison will pull the trigger tomorrow morning. #auspol @vanOnselenP

  32. Toolman playing catch up..

    Nine News has confirmed the PM will leave Melbourne tonight for Canberra, to call on the Governor General tomorrow morning and name May 18 as the election date. @9NewsAUS

  33. The same thing happened to me. I never followed Morrison before he became PM but as soon as I tried to I found that I was already Blocked!

    Blocking early, block first.

  41. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    4m4 minutes ago
    PM flying back to Canberra right now to call the election tomorrow…

    Finally!

  42. Sound familiar?

    The seven officials in top “acting” roles in President Trump’s administration are all white males, with an age range of 43 to 59.

    The bottom line: Half the women are gone from Trump’s Cabinet, leaving (with vacancies) 13% of Cabinet-level roles held by women, per CNN. Kirstjen Nielsen announced her resignation from the Department of Homeland Security on Sunday and the department’s acting deputy secretary, Claire Grady, did the same on Tuesday.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-cabinet-women-diversity-0e9da649-12ac-4695-813d-bc47a11f016a.html

  44. “Natash Stott-Despoya was running true to Greens form tonight.

    Which is ‘interesting’ given she was an Australian Democrats senator.

  45. For Bucephalis and friends..

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/march/1551445200/michael-quigley/what-happened-broadband-australia

    A long read, but good for the soul.

    Betting tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on a myopic, expensive and backward-looking network based on copper, as the Coalition has done – while the world was moving away from copper and embracing optical fibre – was a huge miscalculation. It was not driven by a sophisticated analysis of the best technology choices for Australia’s NBN, but by ideology and politics.

  47. David Crowe:

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will call the federal election on Thursday after returning to Canberra to announce May 18 as the date when Australians will go to the polls.

    Mr Morrison arranged to fly from Melbourne to Canberra late on Wednesday in order to be ready to see the Governor-General, Sir Peter Cosgrove, early the next day to ask that Parliament be dissolved.

    Public servants are preparing to enter caretaker mode on Friday night.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-prepares-to-call-the-federal-election-20190410-p51cxn.html

  48. Ucomm also polled Pearce last night. Odd to see journalists pretending they have “uncovered” who Ucomm is owned by. It has been widely advertised for at least a year from memory.

  49. Not much talk on here about Chinese cash today.

    It is a corrupt government supported by a corrupt media, of course there isn’t.

  50. Eddy Jokovich@EddyJokovich
    3m3 minutes ago
    Out of interest, why would a PM telegraph going to GG to announce the election date tomorrow, even though he wouldn’t need to announce May 18 election until April 15? I think he’s still playing games, but happy to be proved wrong.

    Another view.

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