Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

Comments Page 15 of 26
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  1. Toxic run-off from Campbellfield factory fire threatens waterways. Melbourne risks undoing decades of habitat restoration and losing platypuses and growling grass frogs unless more is done to prevent improper waste storage and factory fires, environmental experts warn.

    Melbourne is just turning into a toxic dump under the Andrews government.

  2. Maybe the Andrews Government hasn’t got around to reversing the Liberal’s undoing of environmental regulation.

    But they have had time.

    Isn’t the Victorian Government also opposed to returning water to the MD system and protecting native forests?

  3. I don’t know where the water is going to come from. Melbourne doesn’t take drinking water from the MD. What are we South Australians? So I don’t know where any extra is coming from. As for forests I’m going to get upset if i get into that. I just hope they start to improve soon.

  4. I would have thought the Liberal voting, Liberal donating, liberal approved, developers who flouted the Laws and regulations surreptitiously and illegally to cause the state and national disaster we now face have a lot to answer for too, not to mention the Liberal party itself, Taylormade.

    Do you feel guilty and shamefaced about being a fanatical, unreasonable and fanatical Liberal supporter at all costs?

    Thought not.

  6. Scott Morrison playing footsie with the voters about election timing will be marked down very badly indeed.

    The government has nothing to do. The Reps is not sitting, and only Estimates is still alive. It’s parched earth from now on.

    The former offers no chance to pass (or even debate) the far-too-early Budget.

    The latter, especially, is unlikely to play well for the government.

    So why bother extending the misery?

    You can only come to the conclusion that they just don’t care anymore. It’s a giant “Fuck Youse!” to the voters (and see if the government cares). A massive spiv-a-thon is about to take place, most likely with feigned agony over Adani prominent on the list, plus the usual cushy appointments.

    Because they’re admitting that they won’t be around to take responsibility for the mess they are deliberately setting up.

    Hard to see how any of that’s likely to win any undecided hearts and minds.

  8. I trust every appointment, to every and any position, made by the Liberal Party in the last six years will be overturned, starting the day after the election.

  9. But they have had time.

    How long do you think overturning 40 years of bipartisan destruction of the public service should have taken?

    I’m not even sure we’ve really started working in the other direction yet.

  10. Many of the appointments can’t be reversed except by vote of Parliament, especially judicial and quasi-judicial ones.

  11. I don’t think the real hard heads in the Liberal Party are happy about delays in calling the election. They are broke, and they know the election is lost. They want to focus on minimising the damage – a short, sharp campaign is their best bet to hold the 60 or so core coalition seats they must retain to stay in touch for 2022. Morrison’s self-indulgence in dicking around with setting the election date won’t win him any favours with the Liberal admin heavies. I am pretty confident the campaign will be underway by the end of the week – my guess (now) is a mid week visit to the GG for a May 18th election – I really did think a May 11th election would be called this weekend, but it appears I was wrong!

  12. That still leaves a lot of consular and ambassadorial positions, boards, qangas and general sinecures able to be overturned and either cancelled, or you know, awarded to people with actual qualifications or relevant experience.

    Poor old Mirabella might have to learn to clean toilets or to apply to Centrelink.

  13. Fulvio Sammut @ #708 Saturday, April 6th, 2019 – 11:19 pm

    I trust every appointment, to every and any position, made by the Liberal Party in the last six years will be overturned, starting the day after the election.

    —

    Four more jobs from the Coalition escape hatch made yesterday – hidden away in page 7 of the Australian today in a short piece the bottom; preceded by seven pages of Labor Party smearing from several Murdoch bum kissers- the boss is in town so they went to town 0n Shorten.

    These new chum bucket apoointment’s for Liberal staffers are lucrative multi-year highly paid board positions;

    – Taylor put a former national director of the Nats onto the Snowy Hydro Limited board;

    -Former Senator Karen Synon got a gig at the AAT on a six figure salary and now also part time director of the Housing and Urban Research institute for four years;

    -A former Ian Macfarlane staffer gets a five year gig at the Productivity Commission and

    – Former Liberal ACT chief of staff Kate Carnell gets a nice five year earner on the Defence Industry Advisory Board.

    Got to be unsuprised by this Government’s raw arrogance – they just don’t give a damn.

  14. Any judicial or quasi judicial appointment incapable of being over turned should result in that appointee not being assigned any task, and the amount of its salary being deducted from any financial entitlement otherwise due to the Liberal or National Parties.

  15. WayOutWest @ #574 Saturday, April 6th, 2019 – 5:12 pm

    Interesting day door-knocking in Pearce. Very few knock-backs. Quite a few people who’ve voted Liberal in the past saying they will be voting Labor this time. Many undecideds being swayed by health and education issues. When you have a new candidate against a Minister it’s a big ask, but people are impressed when they see the candidate’s background. If I were Christian Porter I’d be worried.

    Were you out in the morning or afternoon? I was part of the afternoon knock.

  16. briefly @ #645 Saturday, April 6th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    grimace, I spent the morning in Pearce and the afternoon in Moore. The feeling in Moore is clearly positive for Labor too, though the campaign is still small. I’m sorry I missed you this morning. We had a great time.

    I was there in the afternoon, got a leave pass from Mrs G. Long drive from Ellenbrook to Yanchep.

  17. A flurry of guesses tonight. Apologies for allowing the demand to pent up. I’ll be back harvesting tomorrow but this is what I’ve got so far.

    ——————————–
    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-04-07

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.6 to 46.4 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 35

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 chinda63
    52 / 48 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    55 / 45 HaveAchat
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    50 / 50 mikehilliard
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    56 / 44 OH
    55 / 45 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    54 / 46 rhwombat
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    52 / 48 Steve777
    55 / 45 Tom
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    54 / 46 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

    ——————————–
    PB-Guess:Essential 2019-04-09

    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 26

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    54 / 46 briefly
    55 / 45 Davidwh
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    55 / 45 HaveAchat
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    53 / 47 klasib
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    53 / 47 Mr Ed
    55 / 45 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    55 / 45 rhwombat
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  21. nath

    “I don’t know where the water is going to come from. Melbourne doesn’t take drinking water from the MD.”

    ——

    Oh dear nath, i am in northern NSW and even i know that Victoria extends to the Murray River which I believe is a little north of Melbourne.

    A lot of water is taken out of the MD system by Victorian irrigators.

    I think the Andrew’s Minister for theft of environmental water is Lisa Neville. I googled that. Never heard of her.

    I gather the Vic and NSW Governments are united against returning water to the rivers. It seems a Lib-Lab unity ticket.

  26. The Libkins and the LibLibs might wish the worst for Labor’s volunteers. Good. We don’t care. We are the human face of politics. Voters welcome us with their smiles, thanks and approval.

    We will help Labor win. The more you dislike it, the greater is our satisfaction.

    I door-knocked today with volunteers from United Voice, the Maritime Union, the University Branches and local branches. Red shirts on foot made a difference. We will continue to.

  27. Confessions says:
    Saturday, April 6, 2019 at 4:39 pm
    briefly:

    Among my Liberal voting friends and acquaintances there is just resignation that the next federal govt will be a Labor govt. All of them reckon the day the coalition lost the election is when Turnbull was knifed.

    I think a lot of the Lib-loyal just can’t wait for it all to be over.

  31. The departure of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison LNP government is becoming an undignified rout as the soon to be vanquished grab last minute opportunities to maintain their wealth and privilege without even attempting to display any regard for fairness and propriety.
    The Nation will experience a multi-facited basket of pain before the excesses of Howard/Costello and then Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison are expunged to recreate something of the image we like to imagine of ourselves.
    A motely crew of second rate showman has been the leaders of a tarnished LNP political party so reliant on false modesty and sleight of hand, no better exemplified by the housing market melee, the empty Darling river, the largesse displayed toward the GBR and the poor living rough in our streets.
    Blatant disregard, ignorance and intolerance toward the Indigenous nations, an attitude so without any comprehension.
    A complete lack of respect and dignity for the institution of fair and reasonable governance in a country emblazoned with natural wealth and opportunity.
    A swift and decisive election to restore hope and restoration is desperately needed.

  32. End of daylight saving – checked analog watch and it said same as digital! Then realised I had never changed analog watch to summer time. But I have had this problem before, checking things like the time on the microwave oven, unsure whether it would have changed automatically.

    Hopefully some useful polls out today and tomorrow.

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers on slow news Sunday.

    Fergus Hunter reports that Morrison is likely to wait another week before firing the starter’s gun on the election campaign, giving MPs more time to gauge community reaction to the federal budget and sharpen their political strategy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-likely-to-delay-election-campaign-by-another-week-20190406-p51bhc.html
    Alan Kohler opines that, judging from the budget, the government has given up on winning the election.
    https://www.outline.com/fsvVyj
    Barnaby Joyce does it again! He has no shame.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gina-rinehart-barnaby-joyce-and-the-epic-fail-phone-tower-20190406-p51bia.html
    The Australian tells us how Coalition ministers released a flurry of appointments and ­reviews yesterday ahead of the ­expected federal election announcement, setting up former Liberal MPs and staffers in lucrative multi-year board positions.
    https://www.outline.com/qc5kbY
    Peter FitzSimons says it’s absurd our PM still needs a nod from the Queen’s man in Canberra.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-absurd-our-pm-still-needs-a-nod-from-the-queen-s-man-in-canberra-20190405-p51b5d.html
    The Canberra times editorial says that if there’s one thing the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse taught us, it’s that secrecy perpetuates abuse. Which is why it’s hard to comprehend that the ACT government, less than two years after that royal commission’s final recommendations were handed down, seems to have forgotten that lesson.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/secrecy-serves-no-one-well-20190405-p51b49.html
    Residents of a remote Northern Territory community have launched defamation action against Channel Seven over a controversial segment on its Sunrise breakfast program.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2019/04/06/nt-community-slaps-sunrise-with-defamation-suit/
    According to misinformation from sources such as Sky News and scientist Peter Ridd, the Great Barrier Reef is in perfect health, writes DeSmogBlog’s Graham Readfearn.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/great-barrier-reef-sky-news-and-peter-ridd-are-deliberately-misleading,12545
    Julie Szego reviews the political life of Michel Danby who she describes a an exemplary social democrat.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michael-danby-was-polarising-but-he-was-the-real-deal-20190405-p51b75.html
    Melbourne risks undoing decades of habitat restoration and losing platypuses and growling grass frogs unless more is done to prevent improper waste storage and factory fires, environmental experts warn in the wake of toxic runoff from the Campbellfield chemical fire.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/toxic-run-off-from-campbellfield-factory-fire-threatens-waterways-20190406-p51bhy.html
    European investigators are digging deeper into possible links between far-right ideologues and the suspected New Zealand mosque attacker, who sent at least two donations to an anti-Muslim group with branches around Europe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/christchurch-attack-investigators-explore-links-with-europe-s-anti-muslim-anger-20190407-p51bm1.html
    Trump has said that he had not read Mueller’s report investigating contacts between his 2016 campaign and Russia that his Democratic opponents say should be released in full.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-says-he-has-not-read-mueller-report-and-it-was-a-total-waste-of-time-20190407-p51bm3.html
    The push is on to ban seven brands of textured breast implants, but the ban won’t stop new crises emerging, writes Anand Deva.
    https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/how-to-end-the-cycle-of-suffering-caused-by-breast-implants-20190404-p51ar1.html

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.



    Zanetti has no idea about EVs.

    Alan Moir reminds us of the Class of 2014.

    From the US




  35. ScoMo is relentless in his determination to bleed taxpayers dry in his quest for power.

    Holding the election on May 25 would involve extra resources for the Australian Electoral Commission, enabling it to finish the laborious Senate vote count in time for the expiry of the upper house at the end of June.

    Delaying the start of the campaign by another week would give MPs a chance to spend more time in their electorates, getting feedback on the government’s centrepiece budget measures before campaigning begins in earnest.

    It also gives the Coalition extra time to communicate key policies with taxpayer-funded advertising campaigns and make major decisions before government enters the caretaker period, triggered when Parliament is dissolved.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-likely-to-delay-election-campaign-by-another-week-20190406-p51bhc.html

    SmugMo
    https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1114339546085199872/YIubwyhK?format=jpg&name=600×314

  38. Morrison is the best argument yet for fixed terms of government. I’ve never been particularly in favour of them before, but a lazy government that won’t sit in Parliament and uses taxpayer funds to roll out their faux campaign for six months is corrupt, IMV.

  39. When Christianity, climate change and drought collided in Toowoomba

    Remember the battle against retreated water? A good read. Pentecostals and conservative MPs against science.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/april/1554037200/lech-blaine/parable-lyle-shelton-and-dianne-thorley?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Reads%20-%207%20April%202019&utm_content=Sunday%20Reads%20-%207%20April%202019+CID_1e7ac83a8bc2316cf681173375ea2f03&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=The%20parable%20of%20Lyle%20Shelton%20and%20Dianne%20Thorley

  40. lizzie @ #737 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 6:38 am

    Morrison is the best argument yet for fixed terms of government. I’ve never been particularly in favour of them before, but a lazy government that won’t sit in Parliament and uses taxpayer funds to roll out their faux campaign for six months is corrupt, IMV.

    —
    I’m leaning toward fixed terms too mainly because those in Government use the electorate as a play thing of their political parties and call the election when is suits them. I am sure that was not the intention of those who formed the Constitution way back when.

    I didn’t like it when Hawke went early in 1984 and and I certainly don’t like it now with a Government doing bugger all in six months and pushing the envelope as far as they can for clear self-interest reasons.

  43. An optimistic view for the Coalition? Wentworth (Sharma), Lindsay (Husar), Gilmore (Mundine), but Qld is ‘messy’.

    Although polls point to a likely Labor victory, the Coalition remains hopeful of picking up a number of seats, thanks to a combination of local factors and favourable circumstances.

    While success in this handful of electorates would not protect the government from the sizeable losses it expects in Victoria, it could take the shine off Bill Shorten’s victory or even deny him a parliamentary majority.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-s-chances-diabolically-bad-but-libs-eye-federal-gains-20190405-p51b63.html

  45. nath says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 7:10 am
    Shorten said it would take 8 minutes to charge an electric car. He’s not too bright Bill. Good luck Australia!
    ———————

    What happens if that were to be true ,11years from now is a long time to claim cars won’t be charged in 8 -10 mins

  48. nath

    8 minutes ? FMD, how slow is that ? In ‘Chernany’ 🙂

    Electric Car Charging Goes Super Fast
    BY CHERISE THREEWITT JAN 9, 2019.

    ……..station that charges EVs faster than anything we’ve seen previously, though the system is still currently available only in Germany. …………..charger is such a big deal is because it is capable of adding 62 miles (99 kilometers) of range in just three minutes……………and can juice an EV to about 80 percent full in about 30 minutes.

    https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/vehicles/electric-car-charging-goes-super-fast.htm

  50. Tim Washington@EVTimOZ

    Replying to @AngusTaylorMP
    Hi Minister here is a charging station your government funded that can charge a car up in 15 minutes. And 200km in 8 minutes. I know because I’m one of the co-founders you funded.

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