UPDATE: Please note that this a dedicated New South Wales election thread – a general discussion thread is here.
With one day to go, I’ve done a bit of work updating my state election guide with a few new candidate details and campaign updates – and also with updated betting odds from Ladbrokes. There has been a bit of a divergence in the overall odds, where the Coalition are now clear favourites on $1.45 to $2.70 for Labor, and the seat odds, which seem to paint a more favourable collective picture for Labor. UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald has a chart showing the fluctuations in Sportsbet’s odds over the campaign, making clear the late surge to the Coalition.
The Asian immigration kerfuffle has been reflected in Labor lengthening in Kogarah (from $1.17 to $1.30, with the Liberals cut from $3.75 to $2.50) and Oatley (from $2.75 to $3.75, with the Liberals in from $1.36 to $1.22). However, there is no movement in Strathfield, despite reports of favourable polling for the Liberals, and Labor is now unbackable in Coogee, where they are in from $1.22 a week ago to $1.10. Labor are also in from $5 to $3.75 in South Coast – but, contrary to media chatter, the Liberals have shortened in Heathcote from $1.44 to $1.33, with Labor out from $2.88 to $3.10.
The Nationals’ odds have deteriorated in a number of seats over the past week, with Labor slashed from $17 to $4 in Coffs Harbour, and even given a sniff in Barwon, where they are in from $7 to $5, the market presumably considering it possible that they might skate home as votes split between the Nationals and Shooters. Shooters have shortened from $1.33 to $1.25 in Orange, and from $3.25 to $2.90 in Murray; independent Mathew Dickerson seems to be attracting attention in Dubbo, where he is now on $2.75, with the Nationals on $1.40; and independent by-election winner Joe McGirr is in from $1.50 to $1.27 in Wagga Wagga. Conversely, the Nationals’ odds have improved in Tweed (from $3 to $2.50, with Labor out from $1.36 to $1.50) and Upper Hunter ($2.88 to $2.10, with Labor out from $1.40 to $1.70).
The Greens’ odds have improved on the north coast (from $4.50 to $3.50 in Lismore, where Labor are clear favourites, and from $5.50 to $3.75 in Ballina, where the Nationals are given the edge), but deteriorated slightly in the inner city (from $1.36 to $1.44 in Balmain and $1.11 to $1.14 in Newtown).
shellbell @ #99 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 1:28 pm
You really think that after all the ways Gladys has found to put ‘The Shooters’ down this campaign? O…K…
Also, the history of the last parliament has shown the SFF has co-operated and worked better with Labor than the Coalition. By a country mile. The Nats preferred it if the SFF were treated badly.
Ven @ #76 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 11:17 am
Will there be an inversion of the usual pattern where votes on the day look like a solid Labor win and then the postals and pre-polls claw it back?
Would be funny if the early voting turns a narrow Lib retain into a Labor win for once.
AM@1:24pm
Most people want permanent employment rather than short term contracts. Ofcourse they were/ can be fired if they do lousy job.
I am just saying use another analogy to describe parliamentary terms.
I like longer parliamentary terms. It gives politicians to implement their policies.
Maybe McGirr, dickenson (Dubbo), Piper and Greenwich. SFF – no. The mutual hatred runs deep and wide right now.
I reckon only Dickerson could be relied upon. McGirr comes from a traditional sky very conservative electorate, but he actually only beat the Labor candidate into second by a couple of hundred votes and the notional 2PP count: Lib vs Lab was even wiser than McGirr’s actual winning margin. Plus McGirr is actually fairly progressive. So. Not a guaranteed starter for a Gladys minority government.
So. The assumption that Gladys will be able to cobble together enough support from the minors if she falls before 47 in her win right is pretty tenuous IMO.
https://www.shootersfishersandfarmers.org.au/mark_latham_is_a_liar_no_deals_with_labor_greens
Could be all bullshit
The state of play in the Upper House may be influential
Phew – that was like the TAB going down on Melbourne Cup day.
Tony Windsor’s views on SFF and minority government in NSW , having been there and done that,would be interesting.
I am not sure I have ever seen/heard him saying anything about SFF.
Alan Jones wetting his pants because Barilaro insulted Jones’s entire listening audience.
Jones was beside himself on Friday when he interviewed the member for Monaro, barking “are you serious?” at Mr Barilaro.
“I don’t know whether you’re trying to win or not?” Jones asked rhetorically.
“There’s 500,000 people out there you’ve just insulted … these people are rolling around in the aisles in anger,” Jones said of One Nation voters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/22/more-nsw-voters-want-tighter-gun-laws-in-wake-of-christchurch-shooting
a r @ #102 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 1:33 pm
—
In 2015 there were 4,561,234 formal votes lodged so 850,000 pre-poll voters would be around 18.5 percent.
Ben Raue: NSW 2019 – what would a hung parliament be like?
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38031
But what would that hung parliament look like? The hung parliament’s results could vary wildly depending on tomorrow’s results.
Dr Kevin Bonham
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/03/nsw-2019-final-day-roundup.html
Antony Green – The Battle for the Legislative Council
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/guide/legislative-council
The seat-by-seat breakdown on Ladbrokes is currently like:
Coalition: 47
Labor: 38
Independent: 3
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: 2
Green: 1
…in terms of “which party has the best odds in each seat”.
A minority Liberal government might be not so bad, perhaps some of the privatisation agenda will be neutered some what.
A majority Liberal government though… not good… 4 years… I can see the train system being fully privatised.
Seems those seat by seat betting markets have tightened for the Government – last week they were favourite in 50 or so seats…which is the opposite movement to the odds on the overall result…
NSW infrastructure: who is fit to govern?:
http://johnmenadue.com/john-austen-nsw-infrastructure-who-is-fit-to-govern/
NSW Greens beware
Ouch.
“850,000 pre-poll voters voted in NSW state elections. What is that percentage wise?” – the AEC reported it as 16% this morning, which is a drop compared to recent elections.
For what it’s worth my local pre-poll location is right across from the train station and seems very well manned by Labor, Liberal, and other volunteers. I usually rush past on my way home, but it has always looked busy over the past two weeks.
Sportsbet is slightly better (though appears one seat has gone missing?):
Coalition: 45
Labor: 38
Independent: 3
Green: 2
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: 2
@a r, Sportsbet removes markets if they think information has leaked. It’s possible that someone made a large bet, and they closed the market as a precaution.
I think you are missing 3 a r
Yep. I blame Sportsbet for their inconsistent website formatting. Made my script miss a few markets.
The omitted ones are 2 Coalition and 1 Labor. So 47/39/3/2/2.
Anyone else monitoring the Google trends? Although not predictive, it’s looking like there’s significantly more interest in the liberals
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&geo=AU-NSW&q=labor,liberal,daley,berejiklian&hl=en-GB&tz=-660
The Liberals and their mates in the Media, the 1%, Big Companies and Multinationals are throwing absolutely everything at this NSW state election…. every-thing…..
Still, there is a big question mark about the result on Saturday… anything can happen and chances are that the “pundits” may be surprised… But there is no question whatever about the final result for the Federal election…. ScuMo and his gang are gone!
EB
That is a Labor anti-Greens attack ad which you only find out by right clicking on the source of the quote revealing this info in the opened tab.
The full Labor anti-Greens attack ad is shown in the following article.
How ironic one of the ads has “If the Greens are fighting each other, who’s fighting the Liberals?”
Good to see Labor is concentrating on fighting dirty against real progressives rather than the Coalition.
https://honisoit.com/2019/03/balmain-labor-candidate-and-former-src-president-elly-howse-attracts-criticism-for-campaign-material/
I felt very uncomfortable with the comments in Turkey suggesting Aussies and NZers are a chance of coming home from ANZAC day in a box. If this is repeated over and over for the next month, maybe some unwell person will act on the suggestion.
Would not like to be working over there and would be a little concerned even touring.
The boot is on the other foot here. For more than a decade comments have been made about Muslims, some of them very inflamatory. No doubt these Australian citizens feel like I do today. A little bewildered that I can feel threatened because of the action of someone in another country that I find revolting and the comments of politicians.
No matter what her other policies, I could not vote for Pauline after her statements about my fellow Australians of Middle Eastern heritage. I do not know them but she has to remove these attacks from her partys DNA.
Sometimes the only way to convey your opinion is the ballot box. I would urge anyone thinking of voting for any PHON candidate to not do it this time, maybe next time. If good people don’t stand up and be counted…………
Wagga is not as ‘conservative’ as many make it out to be. Over the past decade Wagga has blossomed into a modern, multicultural city that two weeks ago held its inaugural (and hugely successful) gay and lesbian mardi gras.
Joe McGirr is certainly NOT conservative in the Abbott/Andrews/Dutton/Bernardi sense.
He is certainly not a climate change denier (much to the displeasure of many local Nats supporters).
He comes from a very savvy political family. His grandfather was a Labor member of NSW parliament, his great uncle a NSW Labor premier and his aunt sits in the House of Lords as a Conservative life peeress.
If push comes to shove, Dr Joe will act in Wagga’s best interests – unlike the spineless National Party.
I have a theory on betting odds.
As you would have noticed there was just one opinion poll for such an important election.
Somebody on LNP side are putting a lot of money in betting on LNP winning and improving the odds of LNP winning because there is only one opinion polls till now and seat by seat bets were not moving much. I think they are trying create an impression that LNP is winning so that when opinion polls are published tomorrow it will show a better opinion poll for LNP. Will public be fooled by this tactic. As alpo posted they are throwing everything at this election to create momentum for LNP.
Sceptic @ #108 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 2:13 pm
As long as they weren’t reaching for their weapons.
I mean, that’s what Jones is ignoring here in order to cover his arse over his $10000 donation to PHON. Making out that there are ‘good people’ out there that are supporters of PHON and Barilaro shouldn’t insult them. Well, no, they are the standards they walk past on the way to worship at the alter of Pauline Hanson. They are where intolerance began in politics in the late 20th century and they shouldn’t be encouraged and our politicians shouldn’t be forced to kow tow to them by petit demagogues like Alan Jones.
@Ven, the general public does not look at betting odds for their decision. Money would be better spent on adding facebook friends and sending direct messages.
John S@4:50pm
Then why only one opinion poll for such an important election?
@Pegasus: Surely our gun laws are quite strict enough as it is! As evidence: We haven’t had one – not one – mass-shooting since they were brought in, twenty-three years ago. And emotions have run quite high in the public square on several occasions since then, yet no nutter has been able to go on a shooting spree.
Frankly, I come at our gun laws from the perspective that we need to loosen them – if only marginally, and cautiously, and determined to avoid sinking into the USA’s morass. But they’re a tad too tight right now, in my opinion – they’re more right than wrong, and I think Leyonhjelm’s push to loosen them goes too far in that direction, but I think there’s room to ease them just a bit and still achieve their desired goals.
I support the following parts of the NFA:
* Registration of firearms to their owners, with civil and criminal responsibility for misuse of them unless promptly reported lost/stolen;
* Banning most long-arms outright, except by farmers with legitimate need of single-shot/semi-auto rifles to control invasive pests (this should perhaps be updated to ‘shall-issue’ after need has been demonstrated, to reduce farmers’ dependence on the cops’ good mood);
* 28-day waiting period to purchase a firearm (14 would work just as well IMO, but w/e);
* Minimum age requirements for use and ownership of firearms (12 for use, 18 for ownership – seems fair as is); and
* Safe-storage requirements (although these could do with some updating).
I think that some provisions of the NFA could do with revision:
* Magazine size is not a primary factor; moreover, I would imagine that banning high-volume magazines would encourage malefactors to pick non-proscribed, higher-caliber weapons. Accordingly, I think the magazine-size criteria for firearms classification should be revised to read “either magazine size above X, or firing rounds of caliber greater than Y”;
* I think that firearms clubs (i.e., marksmanship clubs and other sports/rec-related associations) should be able to be licensed to store firearms of members, at their members’ discretion – currently, this is only the law in some States;
* As well as medical specialists being able to notify authorities of an owner’s (demonstrated) psychiatric unfitness to hold a firearm, I believe that a license applicant should be required to proactively pass a psychiatric evaluation, without any ‘red flag’ symptoms appearing.
But hey, that’s just my $0.02 worth on our gun laws 😛
C@tmomma @ #130 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 3:49 pm
I thin he’s making out not so much that there are ‘good’ PHON supporters, rather that there are simply many PHON supporters. So therefore a good politician of course throws all principle to the wind and tries to keep them onside.
Because if there are lots of stupid and/or racist people and they each get a vote, we’re duty-bound not just to tally their votes but also to listen to them and pretend their views aren’t stupid and/or racist, or something. 🙄
@ven State elections never had an abundance of polling. I don’t think this year is any different.
God only knows why Labor have come in from $17 to $4 in Coffs. The Nats vote up here isn’t driven by how good the Nats are (they’re useless) but by how much people are scared of Labor’s horrid wasteful spending and open border policies. Yes, that’s idiotic, but it is what it is.
When there’s a good independent running, offering people a chance to vote against the Nats without (gasp!) voting for Labor, then Labor do poorly. Personally, I think Labor will do well to get a primary vote in Coffs of much north of 20%, and are no guarantee to finish in the top 2.
Sally Townley (Ind) hasn’t got the star power of Rob Oakeshott – who reduced Labor’s federal primary vote in Cowper in 2016 to 14% by being seen as the main non-Nat contender – but she’s a very well known Councillor, and easily capable of polling around 20% or higher herself. Just not sure her campaign has held momentum over the last fortnight.
Antony Green is now being interviewed on ABC RN Drive.
“I have a theory on betting odds.
As you would have noticed there was just one opinion poll for such an important election.
Somebody on LNP side are putting a lot of money in betting on LNP winning and improving the odds of LNP winning because there is only one opinion polls till now and seat by seat bets were not moving much. I think they are trying create an impression that LNP is winning so that when opinion polls are published tomorrow it will show a better opinion poll for LNP. Will public be fooled by this tactic. As alpo posted they are throwing everything at this election to create momentum for LNP.”…
On the side of reason and hope, we can argue that exactly the same tactic was used at the 2015 Qld state election where the Newman LNP government was predicted to be returned … but with a decreased majority. The result (a win for the ALP) did shock the punters, but they have obviously learned nothing from the experience…
Oh well, if they are happy with that so am I… 🙂
My wildcard for what we will talking about on Sunday, is the influence of Christchurch.
It so big it must have had an effect on voter intentions, but nothing mush said about it yet.
ar @3:17
“Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: 2”
So which lot miss out?
I don’t know who’s going to win but I’ll be putting every last erg of effort into making sure the good guys win, with a majority to boot.
NSW can’t cope with another 4 years of a government selling everything that isn’t nailed down and then using the proceeds to build new things to flog off to their mates for a tidy profit in perpetuity.
I think the LIbs will just scrape in. I am not confident that NSW voters will go toss out a Lib gov’t. Sigh.
C@tmomma @ #141 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 7:01 pm
Good on you C@tmomma. Just joined the ALP myself this week.
The Single Seat Betting Markets have very small pools. I have put small amounts into some of those polls ( A fewHundred here and there) and those amount seem to have moved the markets at times. Ladbrokes refused to take more $250 on Port Stephens. So the books are small and the money is not that smart (eg B.S. Fairmans’ hard earned bucks).
I am watching ABC news. Would you believe that There is only 1 police officer to police Hate crime (i.e. White Supremacist right wing terrorism) in NSW. Unbelievable. No wonder politicians kept silent about it.
C@t, what is going on in your seat?
PuffyTMD@7:03pm
Bob Carr once said that NSW is Labor at state level.
C@t
Thanks for all your hard work.
CC@7:22pm
I believe Libs will be winning in C@tmomma seat as they will do in my seat. They are currently Lib seats.
Ven @ #149 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 7:26 pm
Thank you, Ven, for your vote of confidence. 🙂