Odds and ends

A review of the movements in New South Wales election betting odds over the past week, in which the Coalition have emerged clear favourites overall, despite a mixed picture in the individual seat markets.

UPDATE: Please note that this a dedicated New South Wales election thread – a general discussion thread is here.

With one day to go, I’ve done a bit of work updating my state election guide with a few new candidate details and campaign updates – and also with updated betting odds from Ladbrokes. There has been a bit of a divergence in the overall odds, where the Coalition are now clear favourites on $1.45 to $2.70 for Labor, and the seat odds, which seem to paint a more favourable collective picture for Labor. UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald has a chart showing the fluctuations in Sportsbet’s odds over the campaign, making clear the late surge to the Coalition.

The Asian immigration kerfuffle has been reflected in Labor lengthening in Kogarah (from $1.17 to $1.30, with the Liberals cut from $3.75 to $2.50) and Oatley (from $2.75 to $3.75, with the Liberals in from $1.36 to $1.22). However, there is no movement in Strathfield, despite reports of favourable polling for the Liberals, and Labor is now unbackable in Coogee, where they are in from $1.22 a week ago to $1.10. Labor are also in from $5 to $3.75 in South Coast – but, contrary to media chatter, the Liberals have shortened in Heathcote from $1.44 to $1.33, with Labor out from $2.88 to $3.10.

The Nationals’ odds have deteriorated in a number of seats over the past week, with Labor slashed from $17 to $4 in Coffs Harbour, and even given a sniff in Barwon, where they are in from $7 to $5, the market presumably considering it possible that they might skate home as votes split between the Nationals and Shooters. Shooters have shortened from $1.33 to $1.25 in Orange, and from $3.25 to $2.90 in Murray; independent Mathew Dickerson seems to be attracting attention in Dubbo, where he is now on $2.75, with the Nationals on $1.40; and independent by-election winner Joe McGirr is in from $1.50 to $1.27 in Wagga Wagga. Conversely, the Nationals’ odds have improved in Tweed (from $3 to $2.50, with Labor out from $1.36 to $1.50) and Upper Hunter ($2.88 to $2.10, with Labor out from $1.40 to $1.70).

The Greens’ odds have improved on the north coast (from $4.50 to $3.50 in Lismore, where Labor are clear favourites, and from $5.50 to $3.75 in Ballina, where the Nationals are given the edge), but deteriorated slightly in the inner city (from $1.36 to $1.44 in Balmain and $1.11 to $1.14 in Newtown).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

180 comments on “Odds and ends”

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  1. The expectation here in Wagga Wagga is that Joe McGirr will be easily returned.
    The hope is for a narrowly hung parliament, with our good doctor playing a pivotal role as a kingmaker.
    The belief is that Wagga will benefit greatly if such a scenario eventuates.
    If the Coalition falls one seat short, Wagga folk will be raising a glass to their disgraced former state MP Daryl Maguire as well as expecting a generous dividend after generations of Liberal Party neglect.

  2. Gladys only needing one independent to pass legislation would be tragic, way better for Wagga and the entire state if she has to wrangle a few more than that, not just pick and choose one vested interest for each bad policy she has.

  3. The expectation in the electorate of Goulburn is that Ursula Stephens will win the seat. This is because of a combination of the “Stadium vs the regions” feeling and that the Liberal candidate Wendy Tuckerman has not achieved any sort of cut through (as demonstrated that she always appears standing behind Pru Goward in media events and seldom says anything.

  4. It will be interesting to see how Strathfield goes given its my local electorate. Jody has been an excellent local mp although she hasnt been able to fix the traffic issues around the markets(problem when you are not in government). She did campaign hard and successfully to stop the over-development of the centenary park estate where the builders thought they could just add extra floors to the existing DA approved buildings.The estate already had parking issues and when complete will have more than 800units. Interestingly enough, the people protesting the over-development were mostly Asians, some Indians and a few others who already lived in the centenary park estate. So I do think that there is sentiment towards over development and will be interesting to see how the “Asian’ comment plays out in Strathfield.
    Also, last evening i did notice some of the Asian shops had posters of Jody Mckay up in their windows. Not sure if they were there before as i wasn’t looking for them before.
    As far as the Lib candidate for Strathfield, I have no idea who She/He is. I havent had a single bit of info on them in my letterbox or havent seen any signs up saying vote for me im the Lib candidate. And this is where the problems for the Libs are. Given that they didnt put any resources into these electorates they probably will struggle to pick them up
    Will also be the first time in years that i will be voting on election day and not pre-pol so should get an idea of the mood on the ground.

  5. I listened last night to the ABC 702 interview Richard Glover had with Michael Daley. It was in the last half hour of his program, in case you want to replay it.

    It was depressing.

    Daley has good messages and policies but is unable to clearly articulate them. He failed to use his “people….from Asia” gaff (an obvious question) to explain it’s cost of living pressures causing our kids to ‘flee’ the city.
    And, when presented with Glover’s signature ‘Dorothy Dixer’ free kick question, for which he should have prepared, he failed to clearly explain Labor’s important environmental policy.

    Good policies don’t count for much if the leader can’t articulate them.

    I can see why the betting markets have turned.
    The bottle of champagne I bought will have to stay on ice until May, I guess.

  6. Seems odd. Labor has, allegedly, suffered a massive of fortune this week, following Daley’s Asian comments and debate gaffs, and yet there has been no published polls that take these things into account, only rumours of ‘tightening’ in internal polls. Surely this late movement back to the government is not all a media confection?

  7. Andrew_Earlwood @ #5 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 6:37 am

    Seems odd. Labor has, allegedly, suffered a massive of fortune this week, following Daley’s Asian comments and debate gaffs, and yet there has been no published polls that take these things into account, only rumours of ‘tightening’ in internal polls. Surely this late movement back to the government is not all a media confection?

    Good morning AE.

  8. Andrew_Earlwood @ #5 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 6:37 am

    Seems odd. Labor has, allegedly, suffered a massive of fortune this week, following Daley’s Asian comments and debate gaffs, and yet there has been no published polls that take these things into account, only rumours of ‘tightening’ in internal polls. Surely this late movement back to the government is not all a media confection?

    Good morning AE.

    Last Saturday I was confident of a Labor mInority (44 seats) government with Greens and Indy support. Relly’s in NSW tell me there has been a momentum shift in the pub test from “get rid of this bloody govt congestion” to “gee that Daley is a bit of a dope” in suburbia.

    In the bush my farmer brother says they would vote for a cheese sandwich rather than the Coalition, particularly the Nats.

    Now my confident 44 seats for Labor gut feel has turned into God damn it, it may not happen. Maybe I should have listened to the prophet Antony Green who doubts a result will be known on Saturday night.

    I have the beer and skittles ready but I hope Cat et al can reassure us that the battle is not over just yet.

  9. The Daily ToiletPaper has some late Coalition internal polling, no numbers however

    Barwon and Murray ‘at risk’, Nats ‘bracing for loss’ to SFF

  10. And the DT also has this snippet on Upper House polling..

    “The Keep Sydney Open Party is eating away at the Greens’ vote, with young Sydneysiders being won over by the pledge to end lockout laws and repeal new restrictions on music festivals.

    New polling from the seat of Sydney shows in the 18 to 35-year-old vote, the party leads the Greens by 4.3 per cent in the race for the upper house, The Daily Telegraph can reveal.

    According to the polling from last Saturday, Keep Sydney Open secured 13.3 per cent of the younger vote while the Greens only secured 9 per cent.

    But the Greens were still more popular overall, scoring 13.3 per cent of the total vote compared with Keep Sydney Open’s 8.4 per cent.

    Both parties share similar policies on the lockout laws and support pill testing.“

  11. Shellbell @ #8 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 7:03 am

    Presumably Roy will drop something akin to this today:


    Thanks for the link. I note the Victorian election comments there say

    “Over 40% of Victorian electors say they have already cast a vote for tomorrow’s Victorian Election”.
    That right there could be the saving grace for Daley in NSW, who knows.

  12. @sprocket_

    Keep Sydney Open are not running in the seat of Sydney. Their justification for this was that the seat could go to the Libs if they did.

  13. Shellbell

    I think in Victoria we got three polls on the Friday-Saturday so I do expect at least two for NSW.

    I hope the Nats get a bath – they ceased representing their electorates’ interests long ago.

  14. All the talk of a change of fortune for Gladys at the expense of Daley is desperation MSM/Lib talkfest to salvage a woeful campaign performance by Gladys.
    Daley with the paint still wet on his office door has put the shivers through a pro big business, neo liberal LNP NSW state government.
    Its not over yet.
    Take the 11/4 Labor. Good odds.

  15. This DT ‘subscriber exclusive’ is a bit confusing reading the headline.

    Who is bracing for loss – Labor or the Coalition?

    Strange as it may sound, a Labor-Greens-SFF combo would not be unlike the current NZ government with Labour, Greens and NZ First.

    Presumably Murdoch is trying to frighten Sydney people into not voting Labor with the front page article. Why?

    EXCLUSIVE Michael Daley and the Greens are plotting an unholy alliance to form a bizarre minority government with the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party. The Daily Telegraph can reveal the government is bracing for the loss of another two lower house seats.

    EDIT: Sorry I can’t copy the DT front page today – big headlines “GUN AND DUMBER Labor and Greens Target Shooters Deal”

  16. On any minority government situation Labor will only ask and receive support for confidence motions in the House from the minors. There won’t be any deals above that.

  17. Goll, I agree. The media promised to support the Coalition come what may, and they have.
    This last week has been nothing but confected media anti Labor and anti Green stories. All to build the narrative the Coalition wants, for the voters to swallow.
    We have seen this from the media in all the recent elections since the Longman byelection.
    If the swing is on, it will be on and none of the media buzz and static noise to confuse voters will work.
    Labor will do very well tomorrow.

  18. Michael Daley interview with Sabra Lane on AM this morning was a train wreck. Lots of ‘the dog ate my homework’ on financial figures and not having a grasp on policy. He also had a dig at the Parliamentary Budget Office which was just baseless and then he backtracked from later. Daley seems out of his depth.

  19. Foot rub inter view with Berigikl…..oh WTF…. I give up on ABC24! No kidding the light weight male compere started the interview off with the old “Mr Burns, you have all the momentum of a runaway train” line. You know unemployment is at record lows, infrastructure is being developed etc. Ended it with the “what is one thing you like about Mr Daley?” I had to turn the sound down

  20. Begins his interview with Daley by going over his gaffes. Chalk and cheese interviews. This fuckwit is a disgrace, the interviewer I mean.

  21. Radio National has some journos on now discussing state election, and it seems FAIR!

    Cathy van Extel handling it well

  22. I dunno why people are complaining about the journalism in the Daily Telegraph this morning when one of their headlines is “psychic cats predict NSW election result”.

  23. Got me again William!!! 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The SMH editorial has declared on election eve that the Coalition deserves a third term to get the job done.
    David Crowe advises Morrison to not trade votes with One Nation. He says it would be playing with fire.
    Michael Koziol reports on Morrison’s showdown with Waleed Aly last night.
    As does Sam Maiden who says Morrison has confirmed he raised concerns over the”anti-Muslim” sentiment of voters during a 2010 shadow cabinet meeting, but insists it was only to “address them, not exploit them”.
    She also tells us why he Morrison agreed to Waleed Aly’s anti-Muslim grilling.
    The New Zealand High Commissioner to Australia, Dame Annette King, said she was being approached by Australians telling her they felt guilty for the deaths allegedly at the hands of a man born in the NSW town of Grafton. “Australia’s not to blame and New Zealand’s not to blame,” she said. “This is a terrorist, an individual who has caused this grief and death.
    These two university academics explain the problem of what happens when too often commentators and politicians conflate temporary and permanent migration. A good article.
    Jennifer Duke writes that Facebook has criticised media organisations for playing a role in the widespread distribution of footage from the Christchurch terrorist attack while defending live video streaming functions on its platform.
    Michelle Grattan says Shorten’s not getting ahead of himself, but the tape measure is out.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that David Leyonhjelm will call Senators Derryn Hinch and Stirling Griff to give evidence for him in the defamation case brought against him by Sarah Hanson-Young, even though both men have previously “declined to cooperate” with his lawyers.
    Shane Wright tells us that a pre-election interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank appears off the agenda after the nation’s unemployment rate slipped to its lowest level in eight years, despite signs full-time jobs growth is slowing.
    Former criminal defence lawyer Jesse Smith suggests that In Christchurch’s circumstances, declining to file a terror charge may be in the best interests of victims. It’s perhaps time to acknowledge that modern terrorism laws are inflexible, narrow, and don’t always meet public perceptions of horrific violence.
    Phil Coorey explains how Christchurch has changed politics.
    It appears Milo Yiannopoulos and his touring manager attempted to use their network of powerful conservatives including Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones to lobby the Morrison government to overturn a decision to deny the notorious political commentator a visa.
    There’s been an inevitable backlash against social media in the wake of the Christchurch massacre. Mainstream news organisations have been quick to jump on the bandwagon of blaming Twitter, Facebook and sections of the more obscure “dark web” for the radicalisation of young men into the political orbit of white nationalists. However, Dr Martin Hirst argues we should not blame social media for the rise of Nazi shooters.
    The AFR tells us that the RBA, like the Fed and much of the world’s economics fraternity, is in wait-and-see mode to gauge if the early 2019 global softening is a temporary blip or could turn into a more prolonged slowdown.
    JP Morgan’s decision to seek immunity in the ACCC’s criminal cartel case against ANZ, Citi and Deutsche has an intriguing back story.
    Michael Pascoe explains how the latest jobs-growth figures are yet another confirmation of a weak economy.
    Wayne Swan writes on how history tells us flat wages growth is dangerous for Australia.
    And according to this law professor we’ve let wage exploitation become the default experience of migrant workers.
    Latika Bourke explains how the UK parliament would handle the Fraser Anning issue.
    According to these two financial experts Berejiklian’s claim to have “paid down debt” is both hypocritical and misleading.
    Michael West writes on how ExxonMobil exploits Australia and PNG.
    Students striking against the lack of climate change policy are a strong voice against an ineffective government, argues Peter Henning.
    Rules stopping public servants from anonymously criticising governments risk making leaders less accountable, lawyers for a bureaucrat sacked over her tweets say. The High Court heard rules that brought on the 2013 dismissal of former Immigration Department worker Michaela Banerji intruded unacceptably on free speech.
    Labor says it will contribute $60 million over the next four years to sideline payday lenders and provide cheap and fast credit to the needy.
    Queensland Nationals are warning they will reactivate their campaign urging the government to underwrite coal-fired power unless the Prime Minister budges.
    Jenna Price talks about how to handle racism at a personal level.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that Philip Lowe still believes the fall in house prices, especially severe in Sydney and Melbourne, is manageable for the overall economy. He is backed by the relatively low unemployment rate, re-enforced by the February unemployment figures and a headline jobless rate falling to 4.9 per cent.
    Greg Jericho says house prices keep dropping – and there’s no end in sight. He has some telling charts for us to ponder.
    The Australian government is fighting to hide Tony Abbott’s letters to the Queen about his much-ridiculed bid to bring back knight and dame honours, despite the information watchdog ordering the documents be produced.
    This is not a good look!
    And it gets worse again for Boeing’s 737 Max.
    Farmers have backed the weed killer glyphosate, saying it has revolutionised farming while delivering environmental benefits including reduced soil erosion.
    Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, uses the online messaging service WhatsApp for official business – including communication with foreign contacts, according to a new letter from congressional investigators.
    A “mind blowing” haul of fossils that captures the riot of evolution that kickstarted the diversity of life on Earth more than half a billion years ago has been discovered by researchers in China.
    Research suggests employers should be concerned about the frequency – and quality – of their employees’ sexual activity.
    But one in two Australian men aged 18 to 55 have experienced sexual difficulty in the past 12 months, according to data released this week. The findings are drawn from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health, which included more than 12,000 men. Overall, 54% of sexually active men reported having at least one specific sexual problem lasting three months or more.

    Cartoon Corner

    A telling contribution from David Rowe.

    David Pope and electoral peril.

    Great work from Cathy Wilcox.

    from Matt Golding.

    Jim Pavlidis with Morrison’s problems with Islamophobia.

    Simon Letch’s view on preference deals.

    A good suggestion from Peter Broelman.

    Wow! It’s more than a week since the CFMEU has figured in a Zanetti cartoon.

    From Alan Moir.

    Jon Kudelka and the regional immigration proposal.

    From the US – a much better crop today!

  24. Hmm

    Perception of journos on RN Breakfast who are from outside Sydney is Gladys is in serious trouble.
    Farmers are actually talking about voting Labor.

    There is a lot of voters outside the Sydney bubble, and they are not happy, for a variety of reasons, apparently.

    Maybe I will need to buy another bottle of champagne for May. Tomorrow could be a good night after all.

  25. Ah, the Costello Herald shows its true colors. I gave up reading it in 2013 when it told me that Tony Abbott would make a good PM. What a track record.

  26. I think there is some confusion as to which is the main thread… this should be the latest NSW poll one, not the general thread?

    Anyway, heard Michael Daley interviewed for the first time on AM. He’s surprisingly genuine and competent sounding. Not at all conceited as we’re used to hearing from our polies. Sabra didn’t press him at all about the racism thing, and instead let him focus on ‘just mixed one figure up with another in the heat of debate’ – which worked very well for him.

  27. ‘Good policies don’t count for much if the leader can’t articulate them.’
    Which is why Bill makes me nervous.

  28. Inside word is that Strathfield and Kogarah are safe.

    Aside from that, the news reports today seem to suggest Coogee should be won. East Hills and Penrith line-ball.

    The question then is, can Labor pick up at least 4 rural seats. I really think that’s the minimum they need to be able to form minority (and the Greens *must* hold Ballina).

    A lot of asks imho. My money’s on a Coalition minority government. At least the crossbench will be able to hold them to account.

  29. Maude, I listened to the Glover interview with Daley and thought he did quite well under a constant barrage of agressive interruptions from Glover. He was barely allowed to finish a sentence for most of the interview!

    GB was allowed far more latitude in her interview of course.

    I’d be interested in the views of others who heard it.

  30. Well, if the coalition does win, we can at least take solace in the fact that Murdoch and Costello got what they wanted.

    Based on past history, I’m expecting a new Liberal leader by 2023. They haven’t kept the same leader between election since the 1988-1991 term when Griener lasted a full three years. Perrotett would be better than Constance as a replacement.

  31. Adrian,
    I agree- Glover is dreadfully biased
    And Daley struggled to get a word in at times
    That’s the game
    And Daley seemed to me to be ill prepared.

  32. I just listened to the Sabra Lane on AM interview with Michael Daley. She was not aggressive with her questions but pretty hard. And I thought Michael Daley did a pretty good job answering them. Not sure why others think otherwise unless they are bias. And he did pretty well on ABC news after that. As usual Ch7 tried to grill him about forgetting figures and he replied with even politician are human and that he made a mistake in the heat of a debate, even the Premier got her policies wrong. I actually think that line resonates with people. “I made a mistake, even politicians are human” He came across as genuine. Problem for Gladys is she comes across as forceful and as someone who does not want to listen to people.

  33. Rural seats
    Upper hunter …. alp
    Monaro…….. alp
    Lismore…… alp
    Tweed….. alp
    Goulburn….. possible alp
    Bega…………..possible alp
    South Coast…… possible alp
    Kiama……. possible alp
    Barwon….. alp or sff
    Coffs Harbour….. possible independent
    Bathurst……. possible alp
    Dubbo….. probable independent
    Clarence….. possible sff or alp
    Murray…… possible sff
    Cootamundra………. possible sff
    see the pattern…….. and of course Wagga stays ind and Orange sff

  34. I’m tipping a Labor bare majority of one seat. My reasons are as follows;

    1/ Everyone is tipping a hung parliament (well, a lot of people, maybe not quite everyone), which means it definitely won’t be a hung parliament.

    2/ Historically, Labor in NSW has been better at converting votes to seats than their opponents, so if it really is tight, Labor should have an edge.

    And, as an extra bonus reason, the bookies’ recent track record has been woeful.

  35. JJ
    Inside word is more often found to be a whimper of a mob destined for some very bad news. It rarely shows up as an accurate telltale of favourable winds.
    Gladys and the LNP are already the great loser in this state election and will at best form a government in the most convoluted fashion. Gladys and her present government are not trusted and a ‘fall over the line’ win will quickly become shambolic.

  36. And if there is to be a shambolic government, thanks to the fashion for long fixed terms, the people of New South Wales will be stuck with it for four years.

  37. Question how many byelections were there in 2011 parliament term
    how many byelections during 2015 parliament
    how many swings to the libs or the nationals during either
    especially 2015

  38. BK,

    I think a few people are looking for you on the thread below this one (“Federal election minus whatever”).

  39. BK, we’re all resting up for a big day out tomorrow. All day handing out, then scrutineering kinda wears you out. Only 3 candidates here in South Coast so the counting should be quick. Go the red team!!

  40. Outside Left.
    Yeah, a big day tomorrow. I shall be up the top room tonight in what the family dubs the “Election Bunker” whenever there’s a count on.

  41. Goll: I was saying that Strathfield and Kogarah are safe for Labor, not sure if you took my comment to be the opposite.

    mick Quinlivan: Incredibly optimistic there. I just feel like there would be more rumblings about terrible internal polling for the Nats.

    Aside from that, the sense I get is that Labor will be quite surprised if they find themselves in the box seat to form government.

  42. “Keep Sydney Open are not running in the seat of Sydney. Their justification for this was that the seat could go to the Libs if they did.”

    Everyone in all seats cast votes using the same upper house ballot.

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