Odds and ends

A review of the movements in New South Wales election betting odds over the past week, in which the Coalition have emerged clear favourites overall, despite a mixed picture in the individual seat markets.

UPDATE: Please note that this a dedicated New South Wales election thread – a general discussion thread is here.

With one day to go, I’ve done a bit of work updating my state election guide with a few new candidate details and campaign updates – and also with updated betting odds from Ladbrokes. There has been a bit of a divergence in the overall odds, where the Coalition are now clear favourites on $1.45 to $2.70 for Labor, and the seat odds, which seem to paint a more favourable collective picture for Labor. UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald has a chart showing the fluctuations in Sportsbet’s odds over the campaign, making clear the late surge to the Coalition.

The Asian immigration kerfuffle has been reflected in Labor lengthening in Kogarah (from $1.17 to $1.30, with the Liberals cut from $3.75 to $2.50) and Oatley (from $2.75 to $3.75, with the Liberals in from $1.36 to $1.22). However, there is no movement in Strathfield, despite reports of favourable polling for the Liberals, and Labor is now unbackable in Coogee, where they are in from $1.22 a week ago to $1.10. Labor are also in from $5 to $3.75 in South Coast – but, contrary to media chatter, the Liberals have shortened in Heathcote from $1.44 to $1.33, with Labor out from $2.88 to $3.10.

The Nationals’ odds have deteriorated in a number of seats over the past week, with Labor slashed from $17 to $4 in Coffs Harbour, and even given a sniff in Barwon, where they are in from $7 to $5, the market presumably considering it possible that they might skate home as votes split between the Nationals and Shooters. Shooters have shortened from $1.33 to $1.25 in Orange, and from $3.25 to $2.90 in Murray; independent Mathew Dickerson seems to be attracting attention in Dubbo, where he is now on $2.75, with the Nationals on $1.40; and independent by-election winner Joe McGirr is in from $1.50 to $1.27 in Wagga Wagga. Conversely, the Nationals’ odds have improved in Tweed (from $3 to $2.50, with Labor out from $1.36 to $1.50) and Upper Hunter ($2.88 to $2.10, with Labor out from $1.40 to $1.70).

The Greens’ odds have improved on the north coast (from $4.50 to $3.50 in Lismore, where Labor are clear favourites, and from $5.50 to $3.75 in Ballina, where the Nationals are given the edge), but deteriorated slightly in the inner city (from $1.36 to $1.44 in Balmain and $1.11 to $1.14 in Newtown).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

180 comments on “Odds and ends”

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  1. Outside left,
    Ditto here for the all dayer for the Red team. Go the good guys! We can do this thing!

    And then it’s off to the pub afterwards to watch the ABC coverage with a cool ale. 🙂

  2. Ante Meridian

    The four years fixed term snuck in by politicians is the most retrograde change in our “democracy” in decades. Maybe in the past century.

    Accountability to the people cut by 25% (or is it 33%?).

    More time for bad policies to have an impact before they can be turfed out. Longer time with snouts in troughs.

    Apart from making politicians more comfortable, It’s main objective was to remove another bit of good Australian political tradition in favour of USA political culture.

    The main goal of our Ozmerican elite.

  3. Maude Lynne @ #36 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 9:08 am

    Adrian,
    I agree- Glover is dreadfully biased
    And Daley struggled to get a word in at times
    But
    That’s the game
    And Daley seemed to me to be ill prepared.

    Richard Glover is the king of the devil’s advocate journo. He’s actually a Leftie at heart but doesn’t want to wear it on his sleeve.

  4. swamprat @ #53 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 10:26 am

    Ante Meridian

    The four years fixed term snuck in by politicians is the most retrograde change in our “democracy” in decades. Maybe in the past century.

    Accountability to the people cut by 25% (or is it 33%?).

    More time for bad policies to have an impact before they can be turfed out. Longer time with snouts in troughs.

    Apart from making politicians more comfortable, It’s main objective was to remove another bit of good Australian political tradition in favour of USA political culture.

    The main goal of our Ozmerican elite.

    It was actually brought in to try and prevent Short Termism in Australian politics.

  5. Swamprat,

    I agree completely.

    Imagine you’re an employer and one of your employees is doing a shithouse job, but they have a three-year contract so you can’t sack them for that time. So you confront them, and their solution is to extend the contract to four years because that’ll be so much more efficient and they’ll do a much better job without the distraction of having to reapply for their job so often. Ha. Ha. Ha.

    And on the matter of blindly following the Septics, the irony is that the US election cycle is actually just two years (elections for a third of the Senate and the whole of the House), but that doesn’t seem to ever be noticed.

  6. I support fixed four year terms. Two years is way too short for a government of any persuasion to implement change. Yes it means at the moment the Liberals have had 8 years, but Labor previously had longer to implement their plans.

    Plus a two year cycle in my view increases the reliance on corporate donations and undue influence on the political process.

  7. The Ch 7 commentary team could be the most entertaining thing to watch ever! Especially if things head south for team blue…

  8. Not sure who that nodding head is behind Daley, but it occured to me it might be more fruitful having a nodding asian face in some of these pressers. presuming he has one in his team.

  9. IoM @ #59 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 10:49 am

    I support fixed four year terms. Two years is way too short for a government of any persuasion to implement change. Yes it means at the moment the Liberals have had 8 years, but Labor previously had longer to implement their plans.

    Plus a two year cycle in my view increases the reliance on corporate donations and undue influence on the political process.

    How about we compromise? – 4 year terms for Labor, 2 year terms for anyone else 🙂

  10. Big A Adrian @ #61 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 10:54 am

    Not sure who that nodding head is behind Daley, but it occured to me it might be more fruitful having a nodding asian face in some of these pressers. presuming he has one in his team.

    That was Penny Sharpe, Deputy ALP Leader. All the candidates are in their electorates working damn hard on the last day of the Pre Poll! Penny is in the Upper House.

  11. A job interview;

    Employer : “We’re prepared to offer you a standard three year contract.”

    Employee : “That’s not long enough. I need longer tenure to implement my plans.”

    Employer : “Your plans? What do you mean “your plans”? I’m the one paying you. Shouldn’t you be implementing my plans?

    Employee : “You’re not suggesting I indulge in populism, are you? I show true leadership by ignoring what anyone else wants. Which is why I need extra tenure, so I’m only forced to pretend to be interested in you less often.”

    Employer : “I’m not sure you fully grasp the relevant concept of our relationship. You work for me. I pay your wages. If I believe you are not doing a good job I need to be able to sack you quick smart.”

    Employee (in a condescending tone) : “Ho, ho, ho. I understand what you’re trying to say, but trust me, the real world doesn’t work like that. Your way just leads to short-termism. We don’t want that, now, do we?”

    Employer : “Hmm. Fair enough. Four years it is, then. And I’m sure I won’t regret it.”

  12. IoM

    Remind me again, what were the wonderful plans the previous ALP government needed exactly four years to implement?

    No one, as far as i know, has ever shown any evidence that somehow our politicians significantly improve their performance. Funny that.

    As for 4 years being some “planning” sweetspot. Sorry.

    Most significant infrastructure takes longer than four years from idea, consultation, design, construction. Urban areas need in the order of 50, 30, 10 year horizons.

    What we need is strong extra-parliamentary implementation bodies that are protected from politicians but of course subject to strong integrity control.

    So if the LNP get back in the neo-liberals will have a final 4 years to complete the privatisation of the State.

    I suppose we won’t need politicians eventually. They are hell bent on demonstrating their uselessness.

  13. Tempted to text Gary Morgan on the number on the Roy Morgan web page to see if he is publishing a poll but fearful I will get a shit load of advertising guff in the future.

  14. the idea that metropolitan public transport is a short term, four year, project is the cause of the whole mess that our urban areas are in. Urban transport networks should be planned over a century.

    But in Sydney each party develops, seemingly on the back of an envelope, an idea that can dazzle the punters, meet their supporting interest groups need for profits, kick the issue down the road.

    Australian politicians, with few exceptions, are allergic to proper planning. I assume because it would constrain their ability to “do favours”, to get rewards.

  15. What do you guys think of the possibility of Cabramatta flipping to Dai Le? Just rumblings from afar that she could be in with a good shot considering comments by Daley and the scandal in relation to the local ALP president…

  16. This election has the sniff of Victoria 1999 about it, with a generally competent conservative government going for a third term against a less-than-prepared opposition. If the rumours about the bush are to be believed, it may well be decided in the same way, with big swings in rural and regional areas.

    A week ago, Labor seemed to have all the momentum, but Daley’s slips over the last few days may well swing a few votes back to Gladys & co. That said, I’m not so convinced that your average swinging voter takes all that much notice of day-to-day politics, particularly in a State election (and especially in this one, which only seem to come alive about a fortnight ago).

    I think a hung parliament is probably the most likely outcome at this stage, with the Tories most likely to hold on with the support of the minors. I can’t see Labor winning the 9-10 seats they need for a majority, though 5-6 looks quite possible.

    Should be a good election night on TV. My Mum is staying over tomorrow, and she will be happy as Larry watching Antony Green and co go through the entrails as the results come in.

  17. I haven’t paid much attention but a week ago Labor had their noses ahead. They can’t have had a bad enough week to be rank underdogs. The Daley Asian thing isn’t that bad unless it was going to play badly in marginal seats. Did I miss something else?

  18. Thank the gods for digital TV. Those of us outside New South can now follow the action first hand.

    I can remember the frustrating days of trying to follow interstate elections by radio broadcasts which always seemed to be populated by cretins who kept telling us the results don’t mean anything yet because we don’t know what booths they’re from. And that would be up to about three hours after results started coming in.

    I would end up yelling at the radio, “Just switch on a TV and tell us what Antony Green is saying, you gimboids!”

  19. There is finally a politician who has seen beyond the 4 year time frame in one of the 2 major parties. His name is Dan and he is from Victoria. He is doing a mix of stuff for the here and now and for the very long term. Not perfect for sure, but he is getting a lot of stuff done and started for the future.

  20. Honestly, I think this stuff is just people trying to get a read on a 50-50 situation. The betting markets really don’t know more than we do, so tend to overreact, investing too much in them is really a pointless exercise.

    I think the result will be same tomorrow, as it would have been last weekend. Likely hung parliament, with the actual outcome hanging on the size of the swing in Sydney, which we’ve known all along is going to be uneven. There was way too much excitement built up to the idea of a majority Labor outcome, we had no real reason to expect it, short of random dodgy “internals” and trying to make this like Qld 2015 redux etc and trying to find a pattern.

    It’s a very very hard election to call, and I don’t feel any strong lean either way. Which is the first election in a long-time I don’t feel confident in making any kind of serious prediction.

  21. Outsidw@10:32am
    True. It shows where Kerry Stokes political ideology resides. It is the same person who told Murdoch that election of Shorten Labor government wull affect their business interest. Do not believe anything Channel reports.

  22. I’m really surprised that the Nats are ahead in betting odds in Ballina. The anger and distrust that people in Northern NSW feel towards the Nats is palpable. I’m not saying Ballina is safe for the Greens, but I’d say they’re definitely the front runners and if Tamara Smith is to face a close result then Labor will be the main challenges for the seat, not the Nats. I’m predicting a large swing against the Nats in Ballina, Lismore and Tweed. Probably elsewhere all over the state too. Traditional conservative Nats are abandoning them in droves for far right minor parties, while the more progressive/environmentally conscious Nats (of which many in the Northern Rivers region are) are looking at other alternatives like the Greens, Labor, or independents.

  23. I would like to mention in passing that I will never vote for unsolicited SMS spammers even if they weren’t racist incels.

    Also, its another reason why Channel 7 has rocks in their head for inviting him.

  24. AM@10:38am
    Your comparison of 4 year term with 3 year contract is not right.
    It appears you do not want people do not want to have stable employment. Stable employment is important to have stable family life.

  25. Getting a handle on how this election will play is keeping every on entertained. If you get three people talking about it, you end up with 8 or 9 possible outcomes.

    For mine, it seems to be shaping up very similarly to the 1999 Victorian election where a last minute change of Opposition Leader (Brumby to Bracks) captured the electorates attention and their votes.

    In that Election we discovered that Kennett was seen as too Melbourne centric and actively indifferent to the needs of the Regions. Kennett thought he had the metropolitan area in his pocket and that he was unstoppable. What resulted was a modest swing in the metro area to Labor and a much larger one to Labor and independents in the Regions.

    The end result was a minority Labor Government elected, propped up by support from the Country Independents. In that Election a Liberal candidate died on the morning of the Election. So, that seat was re-run a few weeks later and scored a resounding swing to Labor. Kennett subsequently resigned and his metro seat also swung to Labor.

    There wasn’t much in the opinion polls to show that Kennett and his crew was up for a loss. After all, Kennett had apparently saved the state from bankruptcy and we’d never had it so good. Kennett, like this Government did spend on things like the old South eastern Freeway, brought the Grand Prix to Melbourne, repaired the Budget and endorsed the Crown Casino in Southbank. So, a Bolshie electorate doesn’t always show anger or disappointment through the polls.

    So my guess is that Labor wins about 45 seats and Governs with the support of the Rural Independents that win in the Regions.

    The Greens by revealing their demands in the MSM this morning have effectively dealt themselves out of any major influence over an incoming Labor administration. Once again, the Greens have done themselves no favours by megaphone negotiations and disrespect of the Party that obtains the most votes.

  26. Good line from Richard Glover: ‘We all have houses that are 30 years old. We renovate them, we don’t knock them down!’

  27. He also said that Leader of the Nationals in NSW doesn’t mind it if people call him, ‘Pork Barrel Barilaro’! 😯

  28. It amazes me there has been very little talk about Monaro given it is held by the Nat leader and Dep Prem with a tiny margin. Especially in an election where there is a regional swing against the Nats.

  29. Ven,

    Umm… I think three years without possibility of termination is fairly stable. Most people can only dream of conditions like that, but politicians just want more.

    If you were employing someone who was doing a hopeless job and you couldn’t sack them for three fricken’ years would you seriously believe giving them four years instead would improve their work? Would you seriously consider agreeing to a contract where you can’t sack someone for four years, under virtually any circumstances, because three years isn’t enough for a stable family life?

  30. Slogan – “Lets get it done NSW”. Get done what? ‘It’ is used in conversations for ‘you know what’. What a ridiculous slogan.

  31. AM@12:49pm
    Employer-employee anology is incorrect for elevtions. It appears you want people to have contract jobs rather than permanent employment.

  32. If we end up in a minority government situation, with the LNP on say 42-45 seats, which independents and minors can they actually rely upon to get them up to 47 votes on a confidence motion in the House?

  33. Ven,

    Sorry, but I’m having trouble understanding what you’re on about.

    The analogy to elections seems obvious and straightforward.

    Politicians are employed by us, the voters. We select them to work for us, from a field of applicants. We pay their wages. We hire them for (federally) three years, during which time we cannot terminate their employment under any circumstances, even in cases of gross incompetence. But apparently, they will do a better job if we extend the non-termination time to four years (according to some).

    I’m not sure how pointing this out means I want people to have contracts rather than permanent employment. Are you suggesting politicians’ employment should be permanent in the sense that even four years isn’t enough and we should never be able to un-elect them ever?

  34. Tempted to text Gary Morgan on the number on the Roy Morgan web page to see if he is publishing a poll but fearful I will get a shit load of advertising guff in the future.

    Checked this out myself — they aren’t doing anything.

  35. shellbell @ #94 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 1:17 pm

    SFF, McGirr

    I doubt the Coalition would be audacious enough to do a deal with ‘The Shooters’ as Berejiklian likes to derisively refer to them these days. Especially as she has spent the last few weeks putting Labor down for preference deals with them so that they may defeat Nationals MPs..

  36. Ven

    Dunno but maybe all they want is confidence etc – SFF ain’t going to give that to Daley and McGirr will back the major party with the most seats (particular if there some distance between them), IMHO

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