Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

  1. Back in 2011 If Morrison was raising the issue of Muslim immigration out of concern about it being demonised why did he deny doing it until he could not deny it any more? He is incapable of being truthful. Showing strong signs of panic.

  2. How are you placed for baby sitters?

    Oh, the wife is home doing that

    And, sitting with the AFL and the Carlton President – after giving money to a Richmond Muslim player today

    So what is Ad Man from Mad Men giving to Carlton and the AFL?

  3. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 7:59 pm
    An embarrassing opener for the AFL, with Carlton being flogged – down 34-1 at Q1
    ——————————
    How is Carlton being flogged embarrassing?

  4. Sceptic @ #2606 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    Abbott on his way out…

    It’s amazing the things you see and learn when you’re door knocking. The Tango Avenue street library is a testament to the strong community we have throughout Warringah.

    https://twitter.com/tonyabbottmhr/status/1108521707428470784?s=21

    What a come down for Tones…

    And how out of touch that he’s never encountered a free library before. They have been literally proliferating over the past few years – in our town whose population would be less than that in Warringah, we have at least six that I can think of off the top of my head.

  5. Watched the whole thing and it made me feel dirty……Morrison’s home spun homilies were vomit inducing.
    On holiday in Berri tonite, walked down to the Murray with a cider and watched the sunset…..aaah.

  6. “The United States had 14,794 golf courses at the beginning of 2018.”

    Assuming roughly per-capita equivalence, Australia would have about a thousand.

  7. I have just watched a few minutes of the Aly/Morrison interview.

    All I can say is that the PM comes across as a used colostomy bag…

  8. From the Fairfax article on the interview, on Islamophobia:

    “There’s no doubt that that exists in Australia,” he said. “But there’s no doubt that so many forms of hatred and stereotyping goes on in the Australian community

    Shades of Trump’s Charlottesville ‘Many sides’ reasoning.

    Also re the ABC, Kerry O’Brien and Andrew Olle were persistent interviewers. Aly knew he had a full 30mins and so took that approach.

  9. And, given what is on here referring to 2011, where are the public statements supporting the position he says so concerned him in 2011, and something needing to be done?

    Ad Man from Mad Men is all about the publicity and the headline

    So, if he was concerned in 2011 where exactly is the evidence in the public domain?

    Any reports in the media over the last 8 years?

    I would expect that the response would include “I am on the public record since that time ……… My record speaks”

    Instead we just get a denial

  10. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 8:37 pm
    Sohar

    Gil has just asked “what is it with josh’s hair? mine is going great.
    ——————————————-
    Nothing will grow in toxic soil.

  11. Peter Stanton
    says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 8:52 pm
    Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 8:37 pm
    Sohar
    Gil has just asked “what is it with josh’s hair? mine is going great.
    ________________________________
    I’m sure Gil was saying ‘you think this is bad Josh, wait till the election’.

  12. Labor must genuinely fancy their chances in Higgins, as I couldn’t see them wasting a candidate that strong in a seat they realistically have no hope in.

  13. nath says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 8:06 pm
    Labor has dumped its candidate in Higgins in favour of a high-profile lawyer who party officials believe has a better chance of wresting the blue-ribbon seat vacated by Minister Kelly O’Dwyer. Josh Spiegel has been replaced by Fiona McLeod, SC, who the party believes has the requisite star power to mount a serious challenge to claim the seat in Melbourne’s inner-east.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-dumps-higgins-candidate-in-favour-of-high-profile-lawyer-20190321-p516ae.html
    ——————————-
    This is one of those rare occasion when we agree Nath. It is a seriously stupid thing to do. It is an insult to the candidate replaced and the many party members who have given up there time to campaign so far. Sadly, as a life member of the labor party I am familiar with that feeling. My father used to describe a Labor party member as someone who will work very hard to get their mate elected to a position of power in the party and then never trust the bastard.
    As an aside I have just finished rewatching Days of Hope. It is a wonderful BBC series made in 1975. It tracks an English midlands family through the years from WW1 to the general strike of 1926. Just google days of hope. I think you may enjoy it.

  14. 2016 Higgins 2CP was between Greens Jason Ball and Liberal Kelly O’Dwyer.

    FPV: O’Dwyer – 52%, Ball – 25.33% ; Labor – 14.95%

    Jason Ball has been pre-selected by the Greens to run again in Higgins.

    So Labor is doing in Higgins what the Greens party is doing in Kooyong.

  15. #theproject

    Hard to pick the most damming tweet:; this one is pretty good:

    Gavin Mettam
    ‏ @metgav
    2h2 hours ago

    If you freeze the frame, I think you can pinpoint the moment Morrison realises his political career is over. #TheProject @theprojecttv #auspol #libspill4

  16. On Brexit.. from a Labour MP that may have voted to support May & Brexit until..

    Lisa Nandy

    Verified account

    @lisanandy
    Follow Follow @lisanandy
    More
    The Prime Minister’s statement was disgraceful. Pitting Parliament against the people in the current environment is dangerous and reckless. Yesterday her government attacked their civil servants. Now she’s attacking the MPs whose votes she needs. It will have cost her support.

    What is it with Right Wing pollies the world over looking to were every chance they get.

  17. Will those Laborites who railed against the Greens preselecting Burnside as a “vanity candidate” who will split the non-Liberal vote in Kooyong, rail against Labor pre-selecting a “star candidate” who will split the non-Liberal vote in Higgins?

    Josh Spiegel has been replaced by Fiona McLeod, SC, who the party believes has the requisite star power to mount a serious challenge to claim the seat in Melbourne’s inner-east.

  18. It doesn’t matter what Morrison says. Every day this is in the news is another day making the public think about whether he’s a liar and whether his party are race baiting Islamophobes. In the suddenly different climate that can only hurt him.

  19. Pegasus @ #2629 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 8:16 pm

    Will those Laborites who railed against the Greens preselecting Burnside as a “vanity candidate” who will split the non-Liberal vote in Kooyong, rail against Labor pre-selecting a “star candidate” who will split the non-Liberal vote in Higgins?

    Josh Spiegel has been replaced by Fiona McLeod, SC, who the party believes has the requisite star power to mount a serious challenge to claim the seat in Melbourne’s inner-east.

    They should hang their flippy-floppy hats in shame.

  20. 2011..
    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/coalition-disarray-spills-into-the-open-20110219-iloip

    But the controversy continued after it was reported that Mr Morrison had urged a shadow cabinet meeting in December to capitalise on electoral fears of “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and Muslim migrants’ “inability to integrate”.
    Liberal finance spokesman Andrew Robb confirmed that “Scott did talk about the strong feelings in the general community about Muslim immigration and he said that we as a party had to engage with that sentiment”.
    “But I’m sure he meant we should engage in a constructive way,” Mr Robb said.

    Is Robb sure he’s sure?..Still ? Sounds like bull then & bull now.

  21. Every day this is in the news is another day making the public think about whether he’s a liar and whether his party are race baiting Islamophobes.

    It’s one of those ‘don’t think about the elephant’ things.

    Every time it’s raised Stunt is asking the voters to not think of all the times he’s dog whistled. Stupid losing strategy. He was always facing bad options, but surely the best of the bad options was to change the subject asap and try and shut up about it.

  22. I didn’t see the interview but news.com.au slammed Morrison
    “Over the course of the live interview, Mr Morrison talked over Aly, dodged questions numerous times and scoffed in the interviewer’s face.”
    Morrison is too arrogant to realise he shouldn’t have turned up for a half hour grilling. No-one can BS on a losing topic against a smarter opponent and not provide plenty of clangers.

  23. Peg, it remains to be seen whether Burnside helps or hinders Yates and/or Stewart in Kooyong. Considering the weakness in the G brand, the question is probably whether or not Burnside can help shore up the G PV.

    In Higgins, there’s no doubt at all that a strong Labor candidate will draw votes from the Lib. This might well assist the G, who would probably find the G brand by itself would not be strong enough to take the seat. Maybe a strong Labor candidate will also draw support away from the G. This remains to be seen.

    In each case, the question for the Gs is the same: how come their brand is losing support. In each case, the question is the same: as the Lib vote disintegrates, how come G support is not growing…

  24. Fred

    Why didn’t Morrison lay low?

    Coz he, like turnbull, just doesn’t do politics v well.

    If his staffer hadn’t responded to Waleed with a threat to sue the issue would have been dead by Sunday.

    But headkickers can’t help themselves. They see a head and have to kick it.

    Appropriate advice (tonight) I once heard had been passed on from Carlton great John Nicholls to the then up and coming and future great Mike Fitzpatrick: Never retaliate. One day, somewhere you will get you chance to get square. And if you don’t, does it really matter?

    Morrison is a retaliator. Has been all his career .

  25. nath (posted this on wrong thread)

    I remember Keating, who obviously wasn’t a long time follower of Australian Football, getting on board your side at the start of 1990. As a St.Kilda supporter I liked the way he didn’t pretend he was a great expert, but nevertheless chose a side that had traditionally been fairly heavily associated with the broader labour movement.

    And he chose an excellent year to get on board.

    I can’t remember if this was his first actual game

    14 July
    On this day in 1990, the Mighty Magpies were up against Carlton in a round 15 match at VFL Park in front of 76,390. At the risk of ruffling the taxpayer, number one ticket holder and Prime Minister, Paul Keating, flew down from Canberra on a RAAF jet to watch the game. A win today would mark Collingwood’s eighth in succession, and ensure it maintained a two game break inside the top-two.

    By the conclusion of the game, Carlton coach Alex Jesaulenko conceded Collingwood was the best side he had seen for the year. The half-time score-line looked fabulous – 9.6 to 1.6. The three-quarter time score line looked even better – 14.8 to 3.8. If not for a five-goal last quarter by Carlton, the Woods would have pushed the record 102-point barrier established in 1977 at the same ground.

    Collingwood won 17.11.113 to 8.11.59 and were second on the ladder, breathing down Essendon’s neck.

  26. frednk, this is what happens when you spend 100% of your time drinking your own bathwater with friendly media pets. You forget that not every interview is a series of softball questions and a happy ending.

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