Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

  1. Did Scott Morrison really say that, from a source of pedophiles, “there only needs to be 1” for him to feel justified detaining the lot without access to proper medical care, and generally demonising the lot of them? How many pedophiles have the Catholic and Anglican Churches produced and how many still lurk there? What is Morrison saying he thinks should happen to those institutions?

  2. Does anyone believe that Scott Morrison was at all interested in alleviating anti Muslim sentiment back then, when has was the notorious shadow immigration minister, nothing he did during that time came close to showing compassion to migrants.

    After his stint as immigration minster he knew hes reputation in the community wasvery poor to say the least… I remember that quite clearly as Treasurer he wanted to change his image after that!

  3. Who was the ABC journo, I am probably going back 20 years, who had a quiet persistent questioning style? Of the ‘give them enough rope’ school?

  4. Steve777 @ #2550 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 7:30 pm

    Sceptic @7:20PM.
    “along the lines of passable deniability”

    Actually I think it’s implausible deniability.

    Actually its ‘plausible deniability’ he is trying to put out there in case Bishop or Morrison drops him in it. You know, like it is plausible whoever drops him in it ‘misinterpreted what I meant’.

  5. EB:
    “Actually its ‘plausible deniability’ he is trying to put out there in case Bishop or Morrison drops him in it.”

    He’s going for plausible deniability but I think pretty much all of us here and probably most who follow Australian politics would find his denial utterly implausible. He’s lying again.

  6. Again on Brexit, I think the only people who want a hard Brexit are the people who want to see the return of Dickensian London (Rees-Mogg and friends), or those who want enough “Anarchy in the UK” that they can actually become Prime Minister (Boris Johnson).

    On the other hand, I think that all players are now in “Check”, and we have a “stalemate”.

    The Republic of Ireland will not accept a customs’ border at the Channel (La Manche), which is what the DUP want, as they did not vote for Brexit, and see no reason why they should have different customs’ regulations from the rest of the EU.

    The DUP will not accept a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but will also not accept being in a customs union with the Republic, unless the Republic accept English and not EU custom’s regulations (i.e. no customs border at the Irish Sea).

    Theresa May could get the Labour Party to support her plan, if she makes the customs border between the EU and the UK at the Irish Sea (the backstop with no definite timeline), or even better, remains in the EU customs union. However, then the DUP will withdraw support, and she loses government.

    Labour believe that the only way out of an impasse is a new election, which they believe they could win (very optimistic of them in my opinion), and so will probably not provide May with support unless she totally capitulates to their “Norwegian” or “Swiss” models for the relationship with he EU.

  7. 7.30
    Sales and Tingle picked up where Waleed left off.
    Morrison is looking very, very shaky on this.
    Morrison, who used Hunt’s foray as cover, was left exposed as a by Maidan who noted that Hunt had not been at the meeting:

    “Yesterday, upon the stair,
    I met a man who wasn’t there!
    He wasn’t there again today,
    Oh how I wish he’d go away!”

    Robb has publicly backed Morrison’s contention.
    Tingle noted Chairperson JBishop’s words on closing the meeting.
    If either of Turnbull or Bishop break cover on this, Morrison is cooked.

  8. ‘Shellbell says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 7:44 pm

    Already looking like another crap year for Carlton’

    Silver spoons are out of fashion.

  9. Boerwar
    If either of Turnbull or Bishop break cover on this, Morrison is cooked.

    Scott has already laid his cover story.. maybe he knows what’s coming. Given that Tingle said they have just been back to their original sources… & no change.

  10. On the ABC News in Melbourne we were subjected to (it seemed) every second item featuring Ad Man from Mad Men – including standing next to a Muslim AFL player handing out money

    Then 7.30 promo saying Labor’s Negative Gearing policy will see house prices collapse and rents skyrocket

    ???

    Surely sky rocketing rents will attract Investors?

    But I will repeat, from my view Negative Gearing is an absolute danger – pacing increasing values and pacing falling values

    The reason?

    Negative Gearing is presumed on the expenses (including the interest in the borrowings) EXCEEDS the income

    So you make a LOSS

    That loss then transferable to other income, income subject to a tax liability

    By extension therefore you borrow full, and you maintain the cost base by borrowing interest only

    Borrowing full means you have very little (if any) hurt money (ie cash) – to provide the LVR the lender requires a mortgage over a collateral security is offered

    The lack of hurt money plays out including when competing with First home buyers who do have hurt money (savings) including to meet the lender LVR

    So prices are forced up

    Then on the way down, we see forced sales the catalyst being that the ownership is a loss making venture – so everything that can go wrong will put immediate pressure including courtesy of the Interest Only Lending not being extended

    Hence principal repayments are added to the loss – and the principal repayments are not tax deductible

    Then Land Tax, House Insurance, Water supply, repairs and maintenance, Council Rates (all of which increase) plus loss of tenancy

    Plus interest rates increasing

    Instead of this analysis we get rubbish that any amendments to Negative Gearing will see prices fall and rents increase

    Those availing of Negative Gearing are not Investors, they are dangerous speculators

    Investors invest their money (their hurt money) looking for a return – so sitting higher in the car on the way home because there is more cash in your wallet

    End of rant

    Our media are a disgrace and give oxygen to the likes of Ad Man from Mad Men

  11. National unemployment down to 4.9% and NSW has the lowest unemployment rate, only Liberal federal and state governments can be trusted to create jobs. Another bad day for Labor.

  12. D&M
    I have totally given up on trying to make sense out of the UK.
    They used to specialize in muddling through.
    They know specialize in fucking it up.

  13. Bree
    You left out the most important bit.
    All due to falling ( like a rock ) participation rates… LNP delivers what they deliver best.. grounds for recession.

  14. Perhaps the best part of that interview was Morrison going to lengths to assert “well I didn’t say I wanted to exploit the fear of Muslims, I said I was concerned about it and wanted to address it”, only to immediately turn around and say “IT NEVER HAPPENED!”.

    Can’t decide if you’d rather deny facts or rewrite history? Do both, concurrently! It’s the Australian way.

  15. spr
    I don’t know. Supporters from at least 17 clubs will be quite happy.
    Although I must say that Richmond is a worry.
    Their speed and skills at picking up the ground ball are awesome.

  16. Labor has dumped its candidate in Higgins in favour of a high-profile lawyer who party officials believe has a better chance of wresting the blue-ribbon seat vacated by Minister Kelly O’Dwyer. Josh Spiegel has been replaced by Fiona McLeod, SC, who the party believes has the requisite star power to mount a serious challenge to claim the seat in Melbourne’s inner-east.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-dumps-higgins-candidate-in-favour-of-high-profile-lawyer-20190321-p516ae.html

  17. Bree is trying to whitewash the magnificent Coalition creation: the Australian Underclass. More and more ‘jobs’ guarantee you a life time’s work just to stay poor.

  18. Who was the ABC journo, I am probably going back 20 years, who had a quiet persistent questioning style? Of the ‘give them enough rope’ school?

    “Red” Kerry O’Brien?

  19. How many jobs created?

    Against what prediction?

    And how many of those jobs created were full time – was it 0?

    Then we get to the participation rate – so people have given up looking for a job

    And the recession in wages – refer the RBA Governor for starters

    GDP grew at 0.2% in the most recent quarter – so annualised at 0.8%, noting the trend line

    We are in recession people

    Retail under pressure, house prices under pressure and media companies collapsing (9, Fairfax, 10 now owned by a Trade Creditor who capitalised their supplier debt)

    They are the 3 lead indicators and all are entrenched in play

  20. “Then 7.30 promo saying Labor’s Negative Gearing policy will see house prices collapse and rents skyrocket”

    That makes no sense. Why would the price to rent a greatly devalued asset rise, let alone skyrocket? Is anyone pushing back on this bullshit?

    Collapsing prices –> more affordable –> more buyers –> fewer renters –> lower rents.

  21. “Who was the ABC journo, I am probably going back 20 years, who had a quiet persistent questioning style? Of the ‘give them enough rope’ school?”

    Paul Lynham? Andrew Olle?

  22. S777
    Bowen had ready answers for the bullshit.
    The problem is that 7.30 gave credence to a second rate report so that there was a ‘balanced’ discussion and put negative gearing on the agenda. The voxpops were ridiculous, IMO.

  23. Those who got caught up in the fake news hysteria earlier today re dingoes being live exported to China, the WA Government has issued a statement.

    The McGowan Government has today set the record straight on the status of the Western Australian dingo, following claims that prohibited methods can be legally used to kill dingoes.

    There has been no change to the status of dingoes under the Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016 compared to the Wildlife Conservation Act that dates back to the 1950s.

    Last year the Minister for Environment made an order under section 271 of the Biodiversity Conservation Act which retained the dingo’s status as native fauna, but provided exemptions for activities that would ordinarily be controlled under the Act and regulations.

    Claims that prohibited methods can be used to kill dingoes are false as the Animal Welfare Act 2002 still applies. This means that a dingo cannot be disturbed or taken inhumanely. The Animal Welfare Act 2002 provides an offence for cruelty, with a minimum penalty of $2,000 and a maximum penalty of $50,000 and imprisonment for five years. Additionally, the use of poisons and explosives is strictly controlled by other legislation and these methods cannot be used without the appropriate licences or authorities.

    https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2019/03/Setting-the-record-straight-on-Western-Australian-dingoes.aspx

  24. On 7.30’s negative gearing bit we had one of those funny coalition supporters proudly making plans for an independent retirement , not relying on government largesse. And is using & relying on government largesse right this minute to achieve it.

  25. Sprocket

    AFL opener is anything but embarrassing, more highly predictable.

    Richmond were probably best team last year, though they did not win premiership.

    Carlton were rubbish.

    Same same .

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