In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.
Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:
• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.
• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.
• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.
• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.
Morning all.
On the ‘extreme left’, one term used by the right and again by Henderson yesterday on Insiders,is that the left ‘loathes coal’. This paints those who want to decrease, and eventually phase it out as radicals acting out of emotions rather than rationality.
I am sure if Henderson had been challenged on this he would have quoted one or more random tweets disparaging coal claiming this showed the left’s hatred of coal.
EB @8:42 AM. It’s all very simple.
The price of any house you want to buy will soar.
The price of any house you own or are paying off will crash.
Twitter has suspended Will Connolly for no apparent reason. What gives?
:large
Kirky
Ultimately people with these strong views, hate themselves. Nothing else explains it.
EB
Yes the article by Nick Kaldas on lack of police action is good.
If Labor in office wanted somebody credible to review the AFP and Border Farce and remove the politicisation and restore some credibility I wonder if Kaldas would be interested? He just knocked back a pre selection offer.
“Derryn Hinch didn’t hide his contempt”
You mean Hinch didn’t hide his craving for a headline. The guy is a lowlife like the rest.
Sohar
And that too.
There may be a lack of police action between states, but Vic Police take and monitor all potential extremists who are inclined to act out violently.
That is quite a pasting of Hanson by Hinch. Good on him.
Never forget that Malcolm Turnbull in calling a DD election made it possible for Hanson and her racist white supremacists to get into the Senate.
kirky says: Monday, March 18, 2019 at 9:08 am
We live in a very different Australia to the one I was bought up in 50 years ago
************************************************
I dare say its a very different WORLD to the one you were brought up in 50 years ago …..
The US is a powder keg that would blow if Trump is tossed out, some South Americas similarly, France …… Middle East…
Some people on ALL sides, colours and creeds see themselves as disenfranchised ……. and are fed a daily dose of hate and rancour on the internet that pushes them to do the evil that drives their inner soul …
Hinch pinged Hansen as the one that brought Anning to the dance. An accusation she really couldn’t deal with.
As for censuring Anning. Apart from being a hollow, look at me sort of exercise to salve the consciences of the outraged, it’s nett effect is not much. Anning will be gone soon enough.
However, it was interesting to see two stunt masters criticising each other for performing stunts.
Morning all.
The smell of LNP/Coalition desperation pervades the news both federal and NSW in the wake of the massacre.
They are spinning so hard they must be dizzy.
The Rodent won’t convince anybody under 70 — and millennials will ask – “who is that old guy?”
lizzie @ #58 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 9:16 am
The problem is that Lenore Taylor’s sources are people very very much like Dutton and Hunt.
Oxycontin causes brain damage. I offer as evidence Rush Limbaugh.
.
.
Following Thursday’s deadly terror attacks on two New Zealand mosques, which left 49 people dead, radio host Rush Limbaugh mentioned an “ongoing theory” that the shooter – identified by Australian media as 28-year-old Brenton Tarrant, is actually a “leftist who writes the manifesto and then goes out and performs the deed purposely to smear his political enemies.”
“You just can’t — you can’t immediately discount this,” Limbaugh added. “The left is this insane, they are this crazy.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-15/false-flag-limbaugh-floats-theory-nz-shooter-leftist-who-staged-attack-frame
the libs seem to have forgotten that howard lost in a landslide and lost his own seat. he was never liked as PM.
I wonder if Anning will result in a collapse of the One Notion and other alt right vote.
Morrison’s platitudes re: tolerance and love of muslims is making me feel a bit ill. He is now denying ever having rallied the party room to use Islamophobia for electoral advantage. I await Turnbull and Bishop to jog his memory.
Steve777 @ #51 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 9:09 am
–
Aha 😀 Thanks for clearing that up. So I should sell my home before the price of said home crashes but buy it back straight after because the price of the house is going to soar. Frydenberg is a genius.
Socrates @ #54 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 9:12 am
—
Maybe after the Border Protection potatoe gets sent back to hole he crawled out of.
Good Morning all.
Gorgeous weather in Brisbane ATM after a few days of steady rain, and more predicted. Maybe some of the grass will regrow.
#weatheronPB
I see that there was no Ipsos and I see William’s hunch that there won’t be. It was low interest in any case. So after a few seconds thought, I think it best to close the book on Ipsos guesses and start a new one on Newspoll and Essential.
15/2.
Kia kaha.
Lets make it a meme.
For those that want to know there is new official twitter for Eggboy.
@Egg_Official
Newspoll & Essential: 52-48 to the ALP
Late Riser @ #314 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 9:27 am
LR:
Post 15/2: Next Newspoll TPP 57/43 and rising by at least 1%/ week until May. Next Essential TPP 58/42 and doing the same thing.
From Tampa, by way of Nauru and Manus, to Christchurch by way of HMS Muslim Tool.
GG@8:54am
When Kochie or any one on Channel 7 attacks Pauline Hanson, I am not outraged at their hypocrisy (can I also say Chutzpah), I laugh at their sheer hypocrisy because they are the ones who promoted Hanson in the first instance for their ratings. They refused to call Christchurch attach a terrorist attack for a long time.
Greensborough Growler @ #36 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 5:54 am
Reading through the comments there seems to be a lot “people” with only a handful of followers coming out in support of Hanson.
I put “people” in inverted commas because most of them have user names ending in random numbers. A sure fire sign they’re bots.
“I wonder if Anning will result in a collapse of the One Notion and other alt right vote.”
Be interesting to see how the distribution changes and i am not sure we will get much info on that in the polling. I reckon its more likely to be a polarizing event that will solidify what people are already supporting.
RWNJobbies will circle the wagons around maximizing the Senate vote to mobs like Corgi’s “Conservatives” as a more acceptable alternative to PHON.
The idiots who are rusted on PHON will continue to be rusted on PHON.
Cant see that the Libs or Greens will get any votes over this that they haven’t already got. Dont think this will be a major lift to the ALP vote, but also, dont think it will hurt their vote.
Happy to be proven wrong as far as the lift to the ALP vote though. This close to the election though. if there is simply stability on the 52/47 TPP then i’m happy.
@Eggboyofficial
I mean
I saw the egg footage this morning.
The egg was still in the boy’s hand when he hit Anning.
It was straight out political violence.
That is a king hit from behind coward punch.
He was, of course, camming the act because Egg Boy wanted to be the centre of attention, the hero.
In doing so he has essentially exploited a massacre for personal gratification.
I hope the cops charge him.
I hope the cops charge Anning for punching a kid in the face, twice.
I hope the cops charge the two bovver boys who assaulted the kid.
But most of all I hope that all the arseholes who are seeking to use Anning to get themselves out of a spot of Islamophobic Race Hate bother get their just desserts.
I’m pleased to see Hanson referred to on mainstream TV as what she is: white supremacist.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/poisoning-the-well-liberal-spending-splurge-to-bury-labor-in-debt/
For all the blathering, derision and entitlement from particularly the Labor partisans here. There’s precious little reflection or critique of their own parties role in corrupting political donations in Australia.
Words are cheap and easy before elections, then easy to disregard once in
If previous govts of either major were half as competent and representative of Australia as the trumpets they blow about themselves, then we would not have many of the issues and concerns we see now
Happy to sit back and let money and vested interests rule everything when it comes down to it, it seems
Donations ‘more influential’ than polls in Australian politics
https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/donations-more-influential-than-polls-in-australian-politics-20190314-p514cx.html
Donations are a bigger influence on Australian politics than polls and the major parties have a history of ignoring mainstream voter opinion, social researcher Rebecca Huntley says.
“It doesn’t matter how many times you show a political party that not only your constituents believe something but the swinging voters do too, the ideology of the party, who is in the parliament and more importantly who pays money to political parties overwhelms what the information might be telling them.”
Australia Fair: Listening to the Nation
https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2019/03/australia-fair
Would a Shorten Labor government rise to this challenge? What can be learnt from the failures of past governments? Was marriage equality just the beginning? In Australia Fair, Rebecca Huntley reveals the state of the nation and makes the case for democratic renewal – should the next government heed the call.
“Often the claim is made that our politics and politicians are poll-driven. This is, on the whole, bunkum. If polls were influential, we would have invested much more in renewable energy, maintained and even increased funding to the ABC, and made child care cheaper. We may already have made changes to negative gearing and moved towards adopting elements of the Uluru Statement from the Heart. We would have taken up the first iteration of the Gonski education reforms. These are some of the issues where a democratic majority comes together, a basic agreement crossing party lines.” Rebecca Huntley, Australia Fair
Darryn Hinch:
Staying in the gutter. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson just told me on #sunrise that she will not vote to censure the despicable Fraser Anning. She will abstain. Supremacist vote chasing.What a message.
I took some action this morning.
I was cycle machining in a gym which has multiple screens out the front.
ESPN was broadcasting endless acts of horrible violence in a sport where the bouts end with one or other of the participants being smashed to a pulp on the floor.
At the same time the Anning political violence was being broadcast two screens across.
So I joined the dots.
A polite request to management later and the ESPN channel was shut down.
citizen@8:58am
From Janet A’s commentary, can I say it is not just men who spread Islamophobia? For example ‘others’ such as Janet A, Miranda Devine, Credlin come to my mind
Ah, the ol’ Howard and Costello ‘scorched earth’ tactic.
sustainable future says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 9:23 am
the libs seem to have forgotten that howard lost in a landslide and lost his own seat. he was never liked as PM.
I wonder if Anning will result in a collapse of the One Notion and other alt right vote.
Morrison’s platitudes re: tolerance and love of muslims is making me feel a bit ill. He is now denying ever having rallied the party room to use Islamophobia for electoral advantage. I await Turnbull and Bishop to jog his memory.
Bishop’s own record is also open to criticism. During the 2016 election campaign, Keenan, Bishop and Luke Simpkins were very happy to try to link Anne Aly – a counter-terrorism scholar and educator – with violence. They spent the closing two weeks of the campaign period sledging Aly-as-a-Muslim in the hope of political gain. It is a very great credit to the voters of Cowan that they were immune to the Liberals’ fear-mongering.
The LNP have a sordid past. They are in part defined as a party by their religious bigotry. They have a very long way to go and should begin by acknowledging the many errors they have made. It’s not enough to pretend innocence. The double-talk is part of the problem. To deny bigotry is in itself a further expression of bigotry. The LNP will not be able to paper over their history of prejudice.
Quoll
What is your view about the Greens Plan to shut all of Australia’s airports because they are facilities that could enable the deployment of nuclear weapons?
@Boerwar
Have you been drinking this morning?
Did you know that egg throwing is completely harmless and has been around since medieval days?
Ven
If you work for Rupert then chances are demonising immigrants and vilifying welfare recipients is one of your KPIs.
z
Insult duly noted with contempt.
He did not throw the egg.
He was holding in his hand when it broke on Anning’s head.
That is a king hit.
I don’t know whether you know anything at all about eggs, but the structure of an egg at the point is very strong.
Thrown eggs are known to have caused eye damage.
As for justifying politic violence by reference to the medieval era, spare me.
Political violence is political violence is political violence.
You can’t admire it one context and then scream bloody murder at it in another context.
Quoll says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 9:50 am
For all the blathering, derision and entitlement from particularly the Labor partisans here. There’s precious little reflection or critique of their own parties role in corrupting political donations in Australia.
“At all times and all places, the Liblings set out to defeat Labor. They are an anti-Labor Gizmo.”….true story.
Thank you BK for your unstinting daily effort. You’re a gem.
Regarding this one.
https://www.outline.com/TuZtuD
The article headline is “PM calls for Facebook, Google, Twitter to suspend live streaming”. But nowhere in the article does it actually say that. I can’t find “PM” or “Morrison” or even the word “calls” anywhere in the text. The article is actually about the difficulty in removing every variation of the offensive video.
And banning live streaming would be ineffective in any case. First, it would kill business video conferencing and private video chat. Second, when does “live” end and “recorded earlier” start? How many seconds need to elapse? Third, and from the article itself, it isn’t now the live streaming but countless copies that are the problem.
The Anning Splat. Open hand ,king hit ? Nah.
Quoll
firstly, this appears to be a strawman. What blathering here about ‘corrupting political donations’ has been aimed at the Liberal party. I’m sure that you would also condemn the ‘corrupting political donations’ the governing party receives, so why aim your bile at Labor partisans? Does one have to be a Labor partisan to condemn ‘corrupting political donations’? Or are you suggesting this is another area where the Greens are leaving the heavy lifting to Labor?
Labor has already made its position on political donations clear. I believe that they are the only federal party who is proactive on this, declaring donations according to the laws they want to see introduced.
The slab you quote about poll driven politics, saying that these policies would be in place if politics were poll driven, again applies to the Liberal government. Most of those policies were adopted by past Labor governments, repealed by the present government, and are present Labor policy.
If you don’t want to appear as partisan as those you attack, a more measured and objective approach to issues should be adopted, rather than the mindless and unthinking ‘same-same’.
I see that the Greens have risen to the occasion by various demands, calls for, announcements, pronouncements and other verbal carryings on in relation to Anning.
In the face of the long-running bigoted campaigning from the Right, there is one party that has been preselecting Muslim candidates for winnable seats, supporting them and promoting their success. This is the Labor Party.
This will not be lost on voters.
Eggnog online violence
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D12sbdtUcAA78bn?format=jpg&name=large
p
The reason the hand was ‘open’ was because it was holding a weapon.