BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. After the 2GB ‘stadium stoush’ – NSW Labor odds have shortened

    Before – Labor 1.87 (50.4%) Coalition 1.90 (49.6%)
    After – Labor 1.78 (52.3%) Coalition 1.95 (47.7%)

    And I hear that Berejiklian won’t nominate a time for demolition to start!
    Worried about two weeks of stadium demolition as a metaphor for her government’s demolition?

    sorry – wrong thread – this is the Pell/Kooyong/NSDAP thread isn’t it?

  2. Shorten doesnt get credit for anything

    Not true. The Coalition have credited him with every problem, imagined or real, since late 2013.

    One day he’ll have questions to answer.

  3. And I hear that Berejiklian won’t nminate a time for demolition to start!
    Worried about two weeks of stadium demolition as a metaphor of her government’s demolition?

    So Daley’s already governing from opposition.. noice

  4. After the 2GB ‘stadium stoush’ – NSW Labor odds have shortened

    Before – Labor 1.87 (50.4%) Coalition 1.90 (49.6%)
    Now – Labor 1.78 (52.3%) Coalition 1.95 (47.7%)

    How very odd.

  5. Adam Harvey’s brilliant ABC reports from Syria are some of the most confronting images you could see.

    The pathetic figures of the surrendered ISIS fighters and their families is a sad, sad sight.

  6. ‘SCOUT says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 4:20 pm

    Bit sensitive Boerwar , as I said it is what he believes and it is a democracy – get over it. If he wasn’t able to speak up such as Shorten did in Parliament with the medivac bill we would be in trouble.

    You could argue (and I do not but you are opening yourself up for it) that Shorten pushing medivac through has opened up this whole debate therefore Burnside and Frydenburg have a platform.’

    Burnside did the old Lib Lab same same bag Shorten routine. I was laughing openly when I listened to his first ABC interview on the morning after his nomination.

    JUST.COULD.NOT.HELP.HIMSELF.

    Then he chucked in his full support for all Greens policies, including those on removing all GMOs from the environment thereby trashing the Australian cotton industry, trashing Olympic Dam Mine, and turning the ADF into a Light Mobile Force.

    He then moved onto death duties in one of Australia’s wealthiest electorates. For good measure he resurrected Goebbels.

    The net result of this waste of political space is that any remote chance the Greens had of collaring Kooyong is as dead a dodo.

    BTW, given that the Greens love the likes of Cortez, why DID they choose a 70 year old wealthy leafy suburban white male political klutz who thinks that an income of $300,000 is a bit tight, money-wise?

  7. Very unusual phone poll claiming to be from Galaxy

    Asked about who i would likely give my first preference to , if an federal election was held this weekend

    Labor, then i was told there was enough 1st preference quota for Labor no more is needed ?

    then the call was disconnected

  8. NSW election – the luck of the draw

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/nsw-ballot-draw-favours-minor-parties-at-state-election/10879618

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party’s chances of snagging two Upper House seats in the next New South Wales Parliament have increased after winning the top spot on the ballot.

    Nearly 570 candidates nominated for the Legislative Assembly — the third-highest number on record
    The party picked up the coveted position during the draw, conducted by the NSW Electoral Commission today, but the order also favours other minor parities including the Greens.
    :::
    ABC election analyst Antony Green said 568 candidates had nominated for the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly — an average of six candidates per seat.
    :::
    Green said One Nation was at a disadvantage, and so too were the Christian Democrats and Liberal Democrats, which drew badly at the right-hand end of the ballot.

  9. William – I think their dial needs recalibrating.

    If anyone here has played a game called “Twilight Struggle” about the Cold War you may recognize this phenomenon whereby some masterstroke of diplomacy/surrogate war by you as either the USA or USSR player actually causes the ‘victory dial’ to go against you.

  10. Rocket Rocket @ 4:24 pm
    sorry – wrong thread – this is the Pell/Kooyong/NSDAP thread isn’t it?

    This election has been a distractingly long wait. 🙂

  11. This same-same rubbish is driving me up the wall (yes, I’m repeating myself). When Greens are criticised they say “look at our policies”, which is fair enough, but never seem to compare Lib-Lab policies. Lazy thinking??

  12. tbf Oh Lord, that needle was a smidge to the left of the hard right on the dial. So even the Tele in their own way will have recognised the popularity of sticking it to Jones amongst the great unwashed. On a normal nothing to report day the needle would have been pointing another 45 degrees clockwise.

    #everythingsrelative

  13. Boewar -why are you spending so much time on this, and why play the man (Burnside and the Greens) and not what has been said.

    Death duties is a fair topic as well.

    Was Shorten wrong to spend so much time in parliament on the medevac bill?

  14. Fozzie Logic…

    Hanson is an idiot. She’s a bigot. She’s racist. She’s a reactionary liar. She’s a pop-nationalist. But she’s not a mass murderer, still less a genocidal maniac. To liken her to the Nazis does not establish any equivalance. What it does is understate the industrial magnitude of the crimes of the Nazis. In a sense, to try to define her as a Nazi (since she isn’t one) is to misconstrue the holocaust as well.

    For the remarkably little it’s worth – this should be self-evident – this is not an apology for Hanson. I’m a lifelong anti-Hanson campaigner, activist and vocalist.

  15. lizzie @ #410 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 4:35 pm

    This same-same rubbish is driving me up the wall (yes, I’m repeating myself). When Greens are criticised they say “look at our policies”, which is fair enough, but never seem to compare Lib-Lab policies. Lazy thinking??

    Would you agree Labor has more in common with Liberal policy than Green policy ?

  16. Do you think Josh will retain his seat?

    In a word, yes.

    Yates is the roughie, but there’s no evidence about to indicate he has enough profile to drag 15% out of Fraudboy’s PV to make it a contest. (yeah some PV will be lost just cause the swing and Libs in Vic etc, but shorthand…)

  17. Labor and the Catholic lobby:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/catholics-win-exemption-in-alp-plan-to-link-hospital-funding-abortion-20190307-p512be.html

    The Catholic sector will be exempt from federal Labor’s plans to tie hospital funding to the provision of abortion services.

    It comes as Labor walked back from its “expectation” that all public hospitals be consistently required to offer access to abortions to qualify for federal money under a renewed funding agreement.

    Announcing the opposition’s new women’s health policy on Wednesday, health spokeswoman Catherine King and deputy leader Tanya Plibersek said a new funding agreement between a Labor government and the states and territories would “expect that termination services will be provided consistently in public hospitals”.

    “This is critical to end the patchwork of service provision in Australia,” a joint statement said.

  18. ratsak

    I agree – I am thinking 53-47 with 10% Primary and TCP swing. Yates or Labor on 47 TCP.

    If it ties up Liberal resources all the better – they are very stretched in Victoria.

    I wonder if Kevin Andrews will be preselected again in Menzies for 2022?

  19. briefly @ #413 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 4:38 pm

    Fozzie Logic…

    Hanson is an idiot. She’s a bigot. She’s racist. She’s a reactionary liar. She’s a pop-nationalist. But she’s not a mass murderer, still less a genocidal maniac. To liken her to the Nazis does not establish any equivalance. What it does is understate the industrial magnitude of the crimes of the Nazis. In a sense, to try to define her as a Nazi (since she isn’t one) is to misconstrue the holocaust as well.

    For the remarkably little it’s worth – this should be self-evident – this is not an apology for Hanson. I’m a lifelong anti-Hanson campaigner, activist and vocalist.

    How do you know she isn’t a ‘nazi’ type ?

    Fraser Anning not a ‘nazi’ type as well …?

  20. The thing I like about Yates and Burnside running against Fryboy is that it ties up liberal resources. If one of them actually won, you could add schadenfreude and the extinguishment of a liberal resource ‘base’ to that list as unexpected bonuses.

  21. pegasus @ #418 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 4:42 pm

    Labor and the Catholic lobby:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/catholics-win-exemption-in-alp-plan-to-link-hospital-funding-abortion-20190307-p512be.html

    The Catholic sector will be exempt from federal Labor’s plans to tie hospital funding to the provision of abortion services.

    It comes as Labor walked back from its “expectation” that all public hospitals be consistently required to offer access to abortions to qualify for federal money under a renewed funding agreement.

    Announcing the opposition’s new women’s health policy on Wednesday, health spokeswoman Catherine King and deputy leader Tanya Plibersek said a new funding agreement between a Labor government and the states and territories would “expect that termination services will be provided consistently in public hospitals”.

    “This is critical to end the patchwork of service provision in Australia,” a joint statement said.

    Why Bill, why are they exempt ?

  22. Lizzie

    “This same-same rubbish is driving me up the wall (yes, I’m repeating myself). When Greens are criticised they say “look at our policies”, which is fair enough, but never seem to compare Lib-Lab policies. Lazy thinking??”

    What are you talking about specifically? If you’re saying that Burnside said ‘they’re the same’ – he didn’t. In his article in the Age expressing why he was running for the Greens, he explained the difference between Lib and Lab – I am assuming this is where the same-same rubbish is coming from.

    To be clear, criticising both labor and the Liberals doesn’t mean you think they’re the same.
    Nor should it be considered unusual for someone in one political party to be critical of the other parties.

  23. steve davis says:

    Shorten doesnt get credit for anything.If he wins he will just be classed as the luckiest politician ever.

    He deserves a lot of credit but you have to admit he drew an inside straight flush Abbott,Hockey,Turnbull,Morrison,Barnyard. 🙂

  24. Does anyone here know much about AI esp Superintelligence? I’m being told that it is almost as much of an existential threat to mankind as climate change and countries are pouring billions into its control. Any truth to it? Does Oz have an anti-Superintelligence capability and if so who is in charge of it?

  25. https://www.theage.com.au/national/lack-of-trust-is-our-gravest-deficit-20190306-p5127g.html

    “I’m not upset that you lied to me, I’m upset that from now on I can’t believe you.” Thus spoke 19th century German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, distilling a malaise that is sapping trust in an alarming number of fundamental institutions.
    :::
    Some lack of trust in politicians and politics is inevitable – and indeed healthy if restricted to scepticism. But in recent years it has fallen to historical lows. Our lawmakers have so often and so evidently acted in self-interest and party interest, rather than meeting their moral and constitutional duty to make public interest pre-eminent.

    The notion that public office is a public trust requires restoration to the pinnacle of political principle. Distrust leads to disgust. It should be unacceptable that our politicians find it normal to contravene the workplace laws they make for the rest of us. There is neither need nor justification for the relentless bullying, shouting and abuse broadcast every parliamentary sitting day.

    Former prime minister Paul Keating did some fine things, but part of his legacy is the toxic behaviour of those who have followed him. He used a self-serving argument that unless you can crush your opposition in Parliament, you can’t beat them in the electorate. Such was his mastery of withering invective this latest mob of politicians seeks to emulate him. None can or should, and all involved are debasing democracy.

  26. Peg tries to blame Lib and Green lies on Paul Keating….as usual. Nothing – absolutely nothing – occurs under the sun that will not blamed on Labor by its enemies.

  27. Boerwar
    says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 4:50 pm
    ‘Dio
    Does Oz have an anti-Superintelligence capability and if so who is in charge of it?’
    That would be Dutton.

    Beat Me!

  28. Quoting Nazis and making comparisons between their behaviour and present-day policies is usually a stretch. As posters here point out, off-shore refugee detention camps are not extermination centres, nor are critics of the government being arrested and detained in concentration camps.
    That said, it is legitimate to point out how the Nazis sewed prejudice and misinformation and to draw appropriate parallels with some of today’s practices.
    Just as the new political correctness has it that calling someone a racist or a bigot is actually worse than racism or bigotry, invoking Godwin’s law to suggest that someone mentioning Nazis is more at fault than who they are criticising, is also a stretch.
    The only thing I stress is: avoid over-reach and be careful about who or what you are comparing fascists with.

  29. There is a role for coal for the time being. We can’t stop using it tomorrow. It needs to be phased out. Had we got our act together sooner we’d be much further down that track.

    We also can’t stop selling it tomorrow. In any case, the decision will be made for us as the rest of the world moves away from coal. Perhaps China has made a start.

    One way or another, we’ll be using and selling very little coal by 2050.

  30. poroti says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 4:52 pm

    This is an entirely contemptible suggestion, poroti. I do not keep lists. Plenty of others seem to have their eye on me. I couldn’t care less. I will say what needs to be said. You can take a running jump.

  31. Julian Burnside didn’t have to klutz it up today with a Goering quote to null his chances of beating Frydenberg.

    Have youse seen his spectacles frames?

    Wank Factor #12.

    Anyone who wears those 1940s style round glasses is unelectable, no matter what other saving graces they may have.

  32. “Adam Harvey’s brilliant ABC reports from Syria are some of the most confronting images you could see.”

    Agree Rex. THIS is one reason WHY we have the ABC. Kudos to the cameraman too.

  33. One of the reasons the LNP have imploded is Shorten. People say he has luck, but I for one, think he has strategy and knows how to take advantage of little cracks in the LNP’s framework. While the LNP successfully wedges itself, Shorten is adept and grabbing the undies and pulling them higher!

  34. Diogenes

    “Does anyone here know much about AI esp Superintelligence? I’m being told that it is almost as much of an existential threat to mankind as climate change and countries are pouring billions into its control. Any truth to it?”

    Nope. No truth to it all.

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