After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
[The Australian aren’t though, and they ran it as their front page lead headline on Monday.]
I cannot imagine why!
C@t,
Yep, the boats stuff should be there by now but the Hello world and Cash stuff is probably too fresh.
Just saw this ticker on the ABC:
‘Gippsland Drought
PM allocates funds to irrigation upgrades.’
Isn’t that the problem with the Murray-Darling? Those ‘irrigation upgrades’ have included dams and weirs to stop the rivers flowing naturally?
BK
The Tory cheersquad pundits who tipped Ipsos as the beginning of the end for Shorten will work on the baisis that most people barely remember yesterday much less last week.
Did any of the ever admit they were wrong about Abbott and Turnbull being the greatest Prime minsister since whenever?
nope.
Welp. So much for Morrison’s Tampa moment.
Question:
Yes I’m over waiting for the election too. Morrison should’ve gone to the GG at the conclusion of the last sitting week. Instead we’re in this faux campaign mode while we wait for them to hand down a fake surplus budget so they can hang the next election on that. Total WOFTAM if ever there was one.
Yes, the Oz will focus on PPM, but will mainly dismiss it as “no gain for labor despite the government having a poor week”. all references of Ipsos and their hyperventilation that the libs were now going to win the election will be expunged from the record.
E. G. Theodore @ #41 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 8:18 pm
Without 99/1 I get:
PB mean: ALP 53.6 to 46.4 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 89
c.f. (incl. 99/1)
PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 90
But there are other outliers, so it’s not really worth pursuing.
WB,
That’s probably why I don’t pay much attention to the Australian. 🙂
There was a lot of bad news for the government last week which would not have impacted on the Ipsos poll. While I think Ipsos favored the Coalition I don’t think you can say it was a bad poll. It came in within the MOE.
Will a boat or two now get the green light to sneak through to Australia?
Swinging voters just don’t pay attention to Parliament — and certainly not the minutia of Estimates or the history of governments losing House floor votes.
Scott Morrisson’s “Canberra bubble” is the press gallery.
They live on another planet. The Annabell Crabbs or Katheraine Murphies have probably not seen or met a swinging voter since their primary school days.
Been a long while since I was your source (no longer have access to AAP wire where the results used to be posted early).
What I do know from the past week is that those I associate with being those who will deliver a change in government because they will be changing their vote could not believe the poll reported in Fairfax
And they are not for the changing in regards their view of this dysfunctional government
I would suggest that a result akin to the Victorian result is in prospect when an election is finally called – noting no one can see why a terminal government continues to hang on to the detriment of the Nation
Apparently the fun and frivolity continues tomorrow. This I gotta see.
DavidWH
It’s the gushing journos who needed to heed the MOE.
How much of the “bad news” is really considered news to John and Jane Q. Public?
I certainly wouldn’t look back at last week as bad week. The Hello World stuff looks bad, but I don’t see people talking about it.
Test
Damn, and I’d gone out and registered “Scomentum™” !
Also, people are jumping the gun – we haven’t got the critically important Preferred Prime Minister data! I’m sure Dennis Shanahan will be able to make a silk purse out of that.
BK:
I’m surprised we haven’t seen a boat arrive yet.
Perhaps it will happen over the recess, giving the govt cause to recall parliament for this shocking invasion.
BK the headline is much more interesting.
Davidwh,
IPSOS suggested that more women supported the Government.
Show me another poll that shows that? 😆
Still no primaries?
Still no other references except Dennis Atkins’ “community service” tweets?
Here it comes..
I have Paul Murry on.
Earlier in the day he said he would have the Newspoll results.
I believe previously he left it last on his agenda.
At the moment Paul and the NT ex-chief minister are doing outrage about the naughty unions and schools or something.
It is truly cretinous stuff.
PPM still 44/35 Morrison.
That will make a tremendous difference to the number of seats won.
So. Normal service renewed. Who’d a thunk it?
Observer
I think you’re right. The methodology of all the polls missed the Victorian TPP by at least 2%.
If NSW goes bad for Berejiklian, and worse than the polls predict, it could be a foretaste of something big on Federal Election night.
The GG’s take
The much anticipated poll will come as a shock to Coalition MPs who were expecting an electoral lift on the back of its campaign to portray Labor as going soft on asylum seekers.
https://outline.com/L24bPY
Primary coalition 37 and Labor 39; source The Oz
No more ‘National Wrap’?
Medevac is a mild positive for Labor, but appears not to be a vote-shifter. The LNP waste their very scarce media time when they focus on it. They in fact campaign against themselves in their safe-held urban-affluent heartland. They will have really knocked the s*&^ out of Abbott’s campaign in Warringah, where voters will be more inclined to vote Steggall as a result. Perhaps they campaign on boats in order to increase the chances that Abbott will be defeated. That would be a positive for them in the long run. On the other hand, they are also improving Phelps’ chances in Wentworth. Safer to say they have no idea what they’re doing.
@GhostWhoVotes
43s44 seconds ago
More
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 5 (0) #auspol
BK,
The trick will be how to get the “on water matters” on the front page. What they need is a lot of boats on the horizon, that Morrison can heroically turn back.
I’ve never been convinced this can be turned into 2001.
The thing about the HelloWorld scandal is that it simply confirms voters impression of the Government, so really not much to discuss. Only the rusted on still have faith. I think it has gotten to the stage that only a ‘sir prince Phillip’ moment would shift the polls further.
Morrison doesn’t have the trust and gravitas to do a scare campaign.
Turnbull and Frydenberg tried to do a scare campaign on NG last election, they were ignored then.
How sweet it is.
From Benson, The Australian
‘The much anticipated poll will come as a shock to Coalition MPs who were expecting an electoral lift on the back of its campaign to portray Labor as going soft on asylum seekers.’
Murray on Sky: 53-47 to Labor
This one’s done. Call the election and get it over with. People have stopped listening to the govt, ow they see anything the govt says as shrill panic.
Morrison needs to wave more coal and pour some more beer on his head.
Bishop’s resignation is telling.
That is, telling Morrison to “G’arn get effed!”
In other words she sees…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIlUvEOhFos
@GhostWhoVotes
2m2 minutes ago
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 48 (+3) #auspol
@GhostWhoVotes
1m1 minute ago
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 35 (-1) Disapprove 53 (+2) #auspol
The Australian
NEWSPOLL
Boat battle fails to lift Coalition
https://outline.com/L24bPY
Someone noted that “Stop the Boats” dehumanises the people – the Coalition can’t bear to say “Stop the Boat People”, and Morrison doesn’t have on his desk a little model of some poor asylum seekers with a self-congratulatory plaque underneath reading “We stopped these”.
CanJoh re result “I’m somewhat puzzled” 😆
Let’s hope the LNP campaign on boats and nothing but boats from now til the election. They will get the smashing they deserve.
Here is the Smear Australia story for confirmation
http://WWW.THEAUSTRALIAN.COM.AU › Annotations
Boat battle fails to lift Coalition
FEBRUARY 24, 2019
Labor has weathered a political storm over border protection and maintained a six-point lead over the Coalition following a bruising parliamentary fortnight.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the two party preferred vote remaining unchanged with Labor leading the Coalition 53/47.
The Coalition’s primary vote of 37 per cent remains unchanged since the beginning of the year with Labor holding on to a two-point lead at 39 per cent.
The much anticipated poll will come as a shock to Coalition MPs who were expecting an electoral lift on the back of its campaign to portray Labor as going soft on asylum seekers.
While the headline numbers remained unchanged, with the 2PP not shifting since the start of the year, both the prime minister and opposition leader suffered a hit to their net approval ratings following the combative two weeks over the medivac bill, banks and the HelloWorld travel controversy.
Those satisfied with Mr Morrison’s performance fell a point to 42 per cent in line with a drop for Mr Shorten to 35 per cent.
On the flip side, disapproval of the PM’s performance rose three points to 48 per cent while those unhappy with the Opposition leader grew by two points to 53 per cent.
Mr Morrison maintained his lead as the preferred prime minister at 44 per cent to Mr Shorten’s 35 per cent.
The Greens’ primary vote remained unchanged at nine per cent with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation also steady at five per cent with ‘Other’ minor parties rounding out the total with 10 per cent of the vote.
The poll was conducted between February 21 and February 24 and surveyed 1582 voters nationally across both city and country regions.
j341983 @ #81 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:33 pm
A becalmed electorate. Or minds set in stone. Waiting patiently.
On the SmearStralian site..
Boat battle fails to lift Coalition
9:30PMSIMON BENSON
Labor has weathered a political storm over border protection and maintained a six-point over the Coalition
Rocket Rocket @ #77 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 9:32 pm
I mentioned this earlier all the Vic polls were out by 3% at 54/46 the actual result was 57/43!
‘poroti says:
Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 9:36 pm
CanJoh re result “I’m somewhat puzzled” ‘
Yes. And follows that up with the Coalition still having momentum. Doofus.