Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-02-24
    Actual: ALP 53 to 47 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 90

    ALP / LNP
    52 / 48 Al Pal
    55 / 45 Alpha Zero
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 autocrat
    55 / 45 Barney in Vinh Long
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    55 / 45 Bert
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    54 / 46 booleanbach
    53 / 47 briefly
    54 / 46 bug1
    54 / 46 Burgey
    54 / 46 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    53 / 47 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Dandy Murray
    50 / 50 Dave from Wagga
    57 / 43 Davidwh
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    54 / 46 Gareth
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    52 / 48 Grumps
    53 / 47 guytaur
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    53 / 47 j341983
    54 / 46 jeffemu
    53 / 47 John R
    52 / 48 jph
    60 / 40 KayJay
    54 / 46 Kirky
    53 / 47 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    52 / 48 Lynchpin
    55 / 45 martini henry
    52 / 48 Matt
    53 / 47 max
    54 / 46 mikehilliard
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    51 / 49 Mundo
    56 / 44 OH
    52 / 48 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    56 / 44 Peter Stanton
    54 / 46 pica
    52 / 48 Player One
    53 / 47 poroti
    54 / 46 pritu
    50 / 50 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    54 / 46 Quasar
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    53 / 47 Rex Douglas
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    54 / 46 Scott
    53 / 47 SCOUT
    50 / 50 Shellbell
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich®
    56 / 44 sonar
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    53 / 47 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53.5 / 46.5 sustainable future
    55 / 45 south
    54 / 46 Terminator
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    52 / 48 The Silver Bodgie
    55 / 45 Toby Esterhase
    56 / 44 Tom
    52 / 48 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    55 / 45 WarrenPeace
    53 / 47 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  4. Said this in last thread but it seems to me that Dennis Atkins progressive heritage shall we say, is coming through more and more on twitter recently.

  13. So it’s official. Ipsos is shit. And all the turd polishing hacks in the CPG who have been beating up “the narrowing 2.0” on the back of “the boats” and the franking credits issue are basically oxygen thieves and should get jobs spruiking dodgy demtel products on mid morning TV infomercials.

  15. I thought the last two weeks would have given the Coalition a whack 54/46 well 53.5/46.5 in my case but Newspoll don’t do decimals. Kudos to those who got it right.

  18. Presumably Benson is frantically finishing off his Newspoll story*, now that Atkins has let the cat out of the bag.

    *with a stiff whiskey in hand

  21. 53/47 – How will the Oz spin this as a positive? And this is before turnbull tips his bucket of bile on them during the campaign

    It seems ScoMomentum = terminal velocity

    I expect a few more resignations this week – who wants to be in opposition, in a rump of infighting rabble for three or more terms?

    the next LNP PM is probably not yet in parliament

    watching ScoMo’s desperation as he heads for defeat will make the next 2.5 months a joy.

  24. All I can say is thank God. Given the fact that this government has given up even pretending to be honest with the corruption so blatantly obvious for all to see I was seriously considering moving to NZ. Given the Mrs is a Kiwi I’ll always have that option.
    Seems that even an entirely controlled press can’t disguise the stench coming front the corpse that is the Liberal party.
    So … Why was IPSOS so wrong? Was it just natural variation or has the dead hand of one Peter Costello tried to change the narrative?

  26. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 9:08 pm
    So what was that 2 weeks all about then?

    No change. Boats hysteria not shifting the sample.

    Seems Scomo might have jumped on the wrong boat sproket – oh well, nice try.

  30. Congrats to those who went for 53 for the goodies. I will be interested in what RN Breakfast has to say as well as our local West, whose political correspondent did not mention during the week, as I remember, any of the brewing scandals. In fact, I will be interested to see if the West acknowledges the NP at all.

  32. Now all those media who hung all sorts of conclusions and predictions on that Ipsos poll will have to do some mightily creative backpedalling!

  33. Newspoll Oz headlines;

    Shorten stems polls fall.

    Morrison still best pm.

    Albanese takes heart.

    Labor steady after poor fortnight.

  35. The funny thing has been watching the Fairfax journos treat the IPSOS result as holy writ. As a result, they have pumped out huge quantities of mindless s…

  37. [Do you think William would put a dedicated Newspoll post up if he didn’t think it was ridgy didge?]

    I am just worried about the way in which Dennis Aktins appears to have “leaked” this. He just randomly tweeted to individuals on PVO’s feed.

    Most odd!

  39. the next LNP PM is probably not yet in parliament

    careful this was said on this very blog on the lead up to election 2007 🙁

  43. [Aren’t polls a lagging indicator? So the corruption stuff might not have fully registered yet. ]

    True, c@t.

    Also, Bishop’s resignation would not have registered either.

    She knew IPSOS was a one-off and took her chance while she could — if she’d announced tomorrow, she look like a rat off a sinking ship etc.

  44. Just maybe, the LNP went the Boat hysteria and little too early, too loud and possibly too wrong. Nonetheless, I think it is all the LNP have and they will come again. The local Sunday Times claims the new strategy in WA is to contest seats like Cowan (small margin to Labor) as Morrison is enthused by the Ipson poll to the extent he thinks the LNP can win this seat. Apparently 40 or so supporters were/are out in the electorate going on about Boats……………………………………and the danger of Labor to Oz security.

  47. Helpful tweeps are suggesting copy for Benson and Shanahan

    “Pressure mounts on Shorten after failing to capitalise on 2 weeks from scandal hell for the LNP which were in actual fact, counter and intuitively positive for Morrison. Latest #Newspoll take by LOLstralian

  48. Dennis Atkins
    ‏Verified account @dwabriz

    The last three Newspolls have had Labor 53 and the Coalition 47. Is there any reason that would change? No. You’d only think that if you only listened to Parliament. The word on the street is different. #auspol #2019Election

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