BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The ballyhooed Ipsos results removes only a coat of paint from Labor’s poll trend lead.

The poll that launched a million headlines, the 51-49 result from Ipsos (here’s my paywalled effort in Crikey), has had only a modest effect on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead is down half a point to 53.3-46.7. The Coalition has recovered all of one seat on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Despite the voting intention result, the Ipsos poll has actually led to a slight softening in Scott Morrison’s net approval and preferred prime minister trend readings, while Bill Shorten’s net approval result is all but unchanged.

Please note there is a thread below this one for all your Brexit discussion needs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. poroti

    “Caucasian is an unscientific early 19th century “racist” term when the humans were divided into three “races”: Caucasoid, Mongloid, Negroid.

    “Caucasoids” included sub-continental Indians and, to some, Australian Aborigines!! Imagine cdescribing peole of Asian origin as “mongoloids” or Africans as “negroids”

    Given its inadequacy as a physical descripter, why some Australian police use it as a “description” of suspects is beyond me.

    “Caucasian” is is an ignorant, stupid and racist term.

  2. I admit I didn’t notice what Crabb was wearing this morning, I was too busy drooling over those to die for shoes Karvelas was wearing! #Louboutin

  3. AB

    I’d expect pants wetting moreso than a gloat.

    Kenny now onto the BoM covering up the absence of Climate Change by allegedly deleting historical tempreture records from Broken Hill. His followers are going into a frenzy.

    Alternate universe

  4. And what gives you the right to change my blog name, Bushfire Bill?

    Not to mention the fact that you are lying about the conversation you had with BK about Annabel Crabb. I did not say that you, specifically, said anything nasty about her, I simply made the point that two men thought it perfectly okay to start a conversation about a woman journalist on Insiders and what she was wearing, as if they had a right. Making disparaging remarks. As if it were their right.

    So what if Annabel, who has always dressed outside the box, didn’t wear clothes you two approve of!?! THAT is the point. You are having a laugh at a woman because of what she wore. It was as bad as people saying that Julia Gillard wore coats that disguised her large behind. What gives you the right, I say again!

    And somehow I am moralising because I stood up for her!?! Says more about you than it does about me, mate.

    Anyway, I held my tongue up until now, but after, what is it, your 4th or 5th self-serving post which contained actual lies about my actions and words, plus your latest ‘creative’ effort at giving me a name people could laugh at, after the last one, ‘Gosford Godzilla’, I could stay silent no longer.

    You need to grow up. Because at the moment you are acting like a superannuated juvenile with an inflated opinion of himself.

  5. Meanwhile in the alternate universe, Kenny and Maharosy have worked out what BoM is up to.

    The BoM delete old records and substitute lower temperatures. This has the effect of current temperatures appearing to be much higher than in the past, hence global warming.

    Cunning isn’t it?

  6. C@tmomma @ #2465 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2447 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2444 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    You are full of yourself, Bushfire Bill.

    Please stop.

    At least be consistent. Make that request of the other party as well. I waited a LONG time before I said anything. I set the record straight. And now I will stop.

    With you, stop, desist and no more are pretty meaningless parts of your postings.

  7. Please for the love of dog!

    When discussing social and political stuff contributions by c@t and BB are appreciated. At least by me. But this personal crapola is not. Worse than I would expect from teenagers.
    Enough already

  8. Greensborough Growler @ #2469 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:56 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2465 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2447 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2444 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    You are full of yourself, Bushfire Bill.

    Please stop.

    At least be consistent. Make that request of the other party as well. I waited a LONG time before I said anything. I set the record straight. And now I will stop.

    With you, stop, desist and no more are pretty meaningless parts of your postings.

    Sorry, I forgot I don’t have right of reply to personal abuse.

  9. THIS is the sort of thing that should have been said about Annabel Crabb today:

    Rachel Baker
    @RachelBkr
    ·
    I’m exceedingly disappointed in Annabel Crabb downplaying the seriousness of the Liberal’s corruption that was exposed this week.

    It does her a huge disservice and makes her an unreliable journalist.

    It’s not rocket science.

  10. C@tmomma @ #2474 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 8:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2469 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:56 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2465 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2447 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2444 Sunday, February 24th, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    You are full of yourself, Bushfire Bill.

    Please stop.

    At least be consistent. Make that request of the other party as well. I waited a LONG time before I said anything. I set the record straight. And now I will stop.

    With you, stop, desist and no more are pretty meaningless parts of your postings.

    Sorry, I forgot I don’t have right of reply to personal abuse.

    You see that thing down the end of the street? That’s the plot you have lost.

  11. The Natives are restless. Only Polling Red Meat will stop them trying to consume each other.

    God please send us a poll. Said it before. Perhaps William can do one at the local Pub or TAB to make sure there is grist for the mill

  12. I simply made the point that two men thought it perfectly okay to start a conversation about a woman journalist on Insiders and what she was wearing, as if they had a right.

    Except it’s just not true that I made ANY comment whatsoever about Crabb’s clothing or fashion sense.

    In fact I quite specifically said I couldn’t comment. Go back over the record and you’ll see it’s true.

    I don’t mind going down for things I actually did. But I’ll be damned if I’ll cop shit for something I didn’t do.

    Now will you please leave off? You’re embarrassing yourself.

  13. [‘There’s clearly no respect for Williams authority by some individuals.’]

    Oh please stop your apparent ingratiation, Rex.

  14. Ven
    says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 8:01 pm
    nath@7:19pm
    Very Ugly because you do not have the wit of Seinfeld
    ____________________________
    Ven you are completely obsessed by me. It’s like I finally have a stalker after all these years of wanting one. You complete me.

  15. Speaking of “unbalanced perspective”…

    From the record. My entire post this morning re. Annabel Crabb.

    If ever there is anything to be turned into cafe gossip, trivialized beyond the point of irrelevancy, or garlanded with schoolgirlish giggling, Crabb’s the first choice. She is Queen of the ABC’s Ladies-Who-Lunch.

    With Crabb, after the high point of declaring Tony Abbott to be her favourite politician, any idiotic attitude is possible, if not mandatory. Need corruption to be turned into fairy dust? Need what He said to be no worse than what She said? Need any serious situation to be talked into harmless fun? Call Annabel.

    C@tmomma, please point out any mention of Crabb’s appearance or dress sense.

    Then go away and pick on somebody else.

  16. Newspoll don’t do decimals until closer to the election someone said.

    Change mine t0 54/46 then please o great PB poll polster please.

    Thanks

    Meanwhile in band camp, one BLOKE gets the gig in Stirling yesterday and a WOMAN gets the gig in Higgins today for the Liberal Candidates. Good call in Higgins, safe but boys club call in Stirling unless they’ve suddenly imported baseball bats to WA; just not in the blood to smash things over there in WA WA land.

    Better male-female ratio than the Nat’s with Ms McKenzie the only female NAT to come out the other side of the election.

  17. Watching the Insiders replay.

    That bloke saying the dividend the imputation reforms are double tax – what bullshit, why didn’t any panel member call it out. It’s single tax, all paid for by the company. The retiree pays nothing. Single taxation.

    Tony Burke telling it like it is on boats.

    Annabelle looks like she’s raided a St Vincent’s clothing bin. However, I’m sure it’s a very fashionable look.

    EDIT: and that’s a terrible green shirt Barrie’s wearing.

  18. Annabelle Crabb makes a point of not sticking to the commonly held view of how a professional woman would present herself and all power to her for that. Professional dress can be boring. But if you take risks some of them will not work. Anyway, it is in the eye of the beholder. My image of the blokes is crumpled crisp packets stuffed into the back of the Insiders’ couch.

  19. And that bloke saying the dividend the imputation reforms are double tax – what bullshit, why didn’t any panel member call it out. It’s single tax, all paid for by the company. The retiree pays nothing. Single taxation.

    If Laura Tingle or Lenore Taylor or Katherine Murphy were on the panel that probably would’ve been called out.

    The one thing that resonates with me wrt franking credits debate is the fact that there are retirees out there receiving a taxpayer-funded tax refund when they’ve paid no tax. How is this justifiable? There is no logical argument for this arrangement to continue in my view.

  20. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 7:54 pm
    Meanwhile in the alternate universe, Kenny and Maharosy have worked out what BoM is up to.

    The BoM delete old records and substitute lower temperatures. This has the effect of current temperatures appearing to be much higher than in the past, hence global warming.

    Cunning isn’t it?

    *laughs*

    PS, PVO does the WOW thing to up his twitter activity stats.

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