The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
This is not how Ch10 5pm news presented the story of HelloWorld-Hockey-Cormann. Of course this type of story is ready made for tabloid TV.
Boerwar, regarding your study of politics at Uni, for your ailments, would you consult a Doctor who has only studied one unit of a medical degree?
Just sayin ….
A contributor to this Forum seems to have conveniently forgotten that it was the Hawke Government with Keating as treasurer which introduced dividend imputation
Since then, under the Howard government with Costello as treasurer the legislation was significantly amended hence the drain on the Budget
That drain on the Budget is because a demographic who have no tax liability (but are not Aged Pensioners in receipt of an Aged Pension or part thereof) are receiving a “tax refund” from the ATO – and I repeat they have no tax liability so, in other words, they pay no tax
Included are those in the circumstances my wife and I are in (as individuals) being that we both enjoy a tax free Allocated Pension of $75,000- PA, so $150,000- between us PLUS that our interest on Term Deposits is under the threshold at which we would be required to pay tax (so the threshold plus other allowances = $20,000- a year each and where my interest income is $15,000- PA and my wife $3,000- PA)
The question I have of myself is, given I so arranged my financial affairs, how do I look my tax paying children in the eye?
Going about raising their children
Just another of the policies of Howard which have done so much damage to the Nation
And in regards PEOPLE in indefinite detention, the first responsibility is the health and welfare of those PEOPLE
IF the current government so moves to have the support services available on Christmas Island so be it
I agree it’s good this is happening.
Now when Labor is in government it can train the workers for the Renewable Age.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-biggest-coal-miner-moves-to-cap-global-output-20190220-p50z4r.html
Diogenes @ #2698 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 6:01 pm
Err – I could be wrong – but a lot of UK Labour comments are in this thread today – including Labour (UK) spelt Labor the Aussie way.
When I read it – it seemed to relate to the UK conversation etc.
But I could be wrong as I’ve said – Believe BW posted the comment ??
BW – want to clarify it ??
Having watched a film about an exorcist, I decided to try it on my dog. I held out two crossed icy pole sticks and said, “Tell me your name, demon!” — and she leapt forward and ate the sticks.
….dogs, of course, needs lots of exorcise.
Regarding the Cancer Council in Queensland loss of donations issue, tying donations to government franking credits is immoral. It’s not a good strategy for any charity to align themselves with that.
Firstly, this is a charity, which by supporting you explicitly acknowledge is inadequately funded. Why would you deny the government the means to better support it?
Secondly, by terminating your donation out of spite clearly indicates you do not care about cancer victims, and makes it more likely your only motivation is to buy social kudos while not so subtly doing a bit of wealth bragging. Even the threat to stop donating is a brag.
Thirdly, threatening to withhold support for sick people unless your conditions are met is hostage taking. WTF!
Fourthly, by insisting on the right to give to the charity while depriving the government of money, you are insisting on overriding government funding priorities.
Top effort from this pilot ! 😆
.
.
It can get boring on test flights. Hours spent quietly winging it from point A to point B with no other purpose than testing out a new engine.
But then inspiration strikes………………
The pilot, who is understood to be a recently qualified instructor at Flight Training Adelaide, left Parafield Airport in a single propeller Diamond Star plane at 8.53am on Tuesday, taking a circuitous route north.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12205687
Its going to be an interesting Mardi Gras this year.
They have banned glitter on environmental grounds
Idea for a startup – Biodegradable/environmentally-friendly glitter and confetti.
According to this author conservative ideology is based on white victimhood
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1835569
Zoomie, if you don’t pay the Exorcist, do you get repossessed? Just trying to beat GG with that one.
Idea for a startup – Biodegradable/environmentally-friendly glitter and confetti.
___
Vacuum metalised recycled paper?
guytaur @ #2695 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
I have no idea why you keep repeating this … or what it means 🙁
Penny Wong retweeted this today
Today I joined @SenatorWong & @susan_close to talk about the stunning revelations that the Submarine deal signed by the Liberals did not include any requirements for local jobs or procurement.
It appears just like the River Murray, Steven Marshall has sold out South Australia.
Oops – IF this turns out to be true the SA electorate won’t be happy with Viper [Chrisopher Whine] selling them fairy floss – a sticky mess of very little substance.
The Bramble Cay melomys is officially extinct – likely as a result of climate change.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/20/a-moment-of-silence-for-the-bramble-cay-melomys-another-victim-of-climate-change
Which leads me to wonder – when was the last sighting of Melissa Price, Federal Environment Minister?
Is she still on the “critically endangered’ list or can we now say that she too is extinct, along with any environmental policy from this government?
Loved this comment after the FDOTM cartoon
I wonder if we sent ALL the LNP to Bramble Cay would they wash into the sea as well
This may be the way to fix our gov’ts attitude to Climate Change
John Oliver barber shop quartet – sung just before the Brexit vote. Still gold.
Go to 13.50min
https://youtu.be/iAgKHSNqxa8?t=829
Late Riser @ #2678 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 5:23 pm
—————————-
So by rewriting the original sentence to suit your perspective on it, we are all to accept that as evidence?
Seems to me that the ‘if medical treatment is required” is clearly separated from the idea of treatment on Xmas island being fine in the actual sentence if it is quoted true.
It seems clearly evident that so many of the Lab partisans here really cannot help themselves by ridiculing and using often puerile terms and demanding other posters submit to their perspective, or answer their questions, or should believe whatever they think is right. Generally attacking as group.
Why bother pretending at this stage that almost anything Bill would have to say on the matter would be anything but driven by fear of supposed LNP campaigning to unleash the dark (not-so) secret underbelly of Australian society who really just hate all asylum seekers?
dave
Taking it as a misspelling of “Labour” takes all the fun out of it. I’m going with “Labor”.
At best, I’m considering it a Freudian slip.
😀
I just ignore the Greens on trying to trap Shorten, they are just pissed off.
Shorten said that only if the refugees can be provided with medical and health protection, then it would be ok.
But we all know that Greenies like Rex and Peg all claim that a Shorten has backflipped and would gladly claim Labor is same-same in bed with LNP.
All while at the same time giving them no credit to medvac bill.
Stupid fuxking twats.
Damn them to hell
You need to take it more seriously. The difference is impotent.
Quoll
Why not listen for yourself? I listened carefully several times and this is what I heard: “If the medical treatment is required, and it’s delivered on Christmas Island and it makes people well, that’s fine.”
I’m not sure how you can conclude that “if medical treatment is required” is clearly separated from the idea of “treatment on Xmas island being fine.” You’ve also left out the condition “and it makes people well”.
Quoll…..It seems clearly evident that so many of the Lab partisans here really cannot help themselves by ridiculing and using often puerile terms and demanding other posters submit to their perspective, or answer their questions, or should believe whatever they think is right. Generally attacking as group.
I don’t care what the Liblings do as long as they continue to campaign against themselves.
BK
I think one thing we have to come to terms with is that some garbage won’t be recyclable and the best way to deal with it is to totally reprocess it back to basic elements. In other words put it through an electric arc furnace and then reprocess the metal and non metal contents
Barney
I idley searched for Vinh Long on Google Earth. It duly flew me there in no time. I then did a bit of looking at the place and found a photo of the above which seemed to be a monstrous big bit of sculpture celebrating, no doubt, total victory over the capitalist running dogs and the like. I have no Vietnamese language skills. The caption (which I posted above) on the image of the sculpture might actually be saying ‘Bill Posters Prosecuted’.
RR
Ms Price emerged the other day to declare a flying fox sp endangered. Thousands of them dropped dead out of the trees during record heat.
She then scuttled back into protective custody.
Sightings of Melissa Price are rarer than those of the orange-bellied parrot!
The two lawyers on The Drum both condemned Michaelia as deliberately untruthful, since she would have been fully aware of the law. And she is protecting her lies by using taxpayers dollars. (It is disgusting that the PM will protect her, because it seems that he also has no regard for truth.)
‘Fulvio Sammut says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 6:07 pm
Boerwar, regarding your study of politics at Uni, for your ailments, would you consult a Doctor who has only studied one unit of a medical degree?
Just sayin ….’
You are not just saying that! My point is not that I am an expert but that when in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Given a choice between a person who had studied one unit of a medical degree and a person who had not, and with no other pertinent information, I would choose the person with the single unit.
BTW, I would also choose the person with the single unit of a medical degree over Dutton, when it comes to making medical decisions about the Nauru and Manus people.
Chris Uhlmann almost got to the end of 9News political segment without showing his blue leanings – the segment otherwise catalogues the tale of corruption in the Liberal Party. Optics for them poor.
https://mobile.twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/1098119532852371456/video/1
Looks like the defecting Labour members in the UK will be joined by a few conservatives in a couple of Hours. I understand why they are taking the action but I think they have made a few mistakes. One the name – The Independents group – is just lame. Two, they need to have a leader or at least a spokes person.
That is a thoughtless, anti-intellectual proclamation. Lacking intellectual curiosity is unhealthy and self-defeating, even if you don’t notice it (because you lack the self-awareness to do so).
The entire point of the Medivac Bill was to ensure that persons held in detention would receive necessary medical care if required. It doesn’t really matter where the care is provided as long as it is delivered. There was no ulterior purpose to this law.
If the Liblings were actually concerned about the welfare of sick detainees, it would welcome anything that resulted in the provision of medical care. But they do not actually think medical care is important in itself. They only want to exploit detainees for political purposes. The greater the suffering, the more the Liblings and the Liberals like it. They trade in suffering and mark it up to boost their profits.
BK @ #2710 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
An aggressively non activated fitness course!
Are Cash and Keenan in witness protection?
Why has not the chief Law Officer of the Land, Porter howled bloody murder about their obstruction of the wheels of justice?
Why has not Morrison sacked Cash, Keenan and Porter for their various roles?
Is not Morrison a holy man who is in a death struggle with the Beast?
Has Morrison recalled Hockey for a please explain session?
Who shifted a very senior public servant from the Helloworld contracting process? And why?
Apart from Cormann, who else copped a HelloworldGate freebie?
Has Morrison launched an inquiry?
Has he carpeted Cormann?
What will the AFP find when it investigates the links between Wilson, Wilson & Shonky?
Why has Morrison not stood Wilson aside while he is being investigated by the AFP?
Is Price in protective custody?
Was Goodenough good enough in separating his financial interests from his Government duties?
Has Morrison carpeted Goodenough?
Has Dutton’s wife never ever ever slung Dutton a s44 wad of dollars?
Has Morrison launched an inquiry into Dutton’s S44 status?
Did Ley pay back the taxpayer funds she abused to travel to the Gold Coast for unit purchasing business?
Has JBishop paid back her various taxpayer-funded schmoozing polo events?
Did Joyce pay back the tens of thousands sent to the bottom of a creek by his driving? Was there a blood alcohol test? Was their a blood alcohol test when he pranged his motorbike a month or so before that?
How is Joyce’s Lucky Inland Railway mongrel bit of scrub country coming along?
Which, if any, of Canavan’s relatives stand to benefit from mining, transporting, exporting or burning more coal and/or fracked gas?
Was Littleproud in a conflict of interest situation when he has Woolworths shares and uses his ministerial platform to try and poison consumers against his company’s opponents?
What has the Beach Shack Man done about the Beach Shack now that he knows they are pissing away taxpayers funds on nothing much at all?
Having won his seat back on the basis of what was going to be all the jobs for South Australia in the Subs build contract, will Pyne lose his seat because it was one big fat lie. (Bearing in mind that the Germans promised a contract with the build of the first in Germany for learning purposes and all subsequent boats 100% built in Australia.)
Is the company associated with Pyne’s contract under investigation for bribery and sundry other corruption in relation to a sub purchase by Malaysia?
Did Robb get a cushy job with a China-related company straight after he sold Australian workers down the drain with the China FTA?
Has Robb walked out that job now that legislation will curtail his freedom of action in that very same job?
Does Taylor have current or indirect financial links with cotton growing outfits that are gaining from killing the Darling River?
‘BK says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 7:01 pm
Sightings of Melissa Price are rarer than those of the orange-bellied parrot!’
One is a useless bird which…. and the other is… uh, no…
Boer war,
Vietnamese like roundabouts as they’re an excuse to put some bloody huge monument in the middle.
I really don’t take much notice of them as statues and the like don’t interest me and any signage is normally just in Vietnamese.
There is, however, an interesting one just around the corner, it’s a big white ball on the top of a pylon.
Nothing flash, but at night when they turn on the light, it becomes a reddish colour and looks like the moon during a lunar eclipse.
I don’t know if that’s the effect they were looking for, but it looks cool anyway. 🙂
I’m at a loss – abc news Sydney didn’t mention the debacle in parliament today as far as I can tell
Given the pointed and politically partisan questions put at the Press Club today, the announcement by Glencore today is of interest
Plus it seems the Minerals Council is about to lose another doner
Then there was the questioning by the same media interests re Christmas Island – obviously looking for a headline of differing views between the Leader and the Deputy Leader
The government and their media are becoming desperate
It will be interesting to see the reporting of the continuing own goals by this government gets by the Liberal Party aligned media and the cowered ABC
Funny isn’t it? You tell a few porkies to the AFP about your employment and they hound you into court a year or two later for being untruthful. Bloodhounds on the trail. Intrepid “investigators” who never give up until they get their girl.
No, not Michaelia Cash. Not THAT girl! I’m talking about Roman Quaedvlieg’s girlfriend, you bunch of sillies!
In Michaelia’s case she didn’t bother lying. She just didn’t say anything at all.
Which is of course her legal right. By the same token, there’s no law that says you still can’t prosecute when the witness refuses to make a statement.
So, how about confessions? Yep, bucketloads if them too. Certified in court as potentially criminal (although I did have a chuckle to myself at the witnesses’ fear of one day being eventually, er, prosecuted – they weren’t even involved in the Quaedvlieg case). But even a couple of fess-ups wasn’t good enough for the AFP.
Poor Sarah Rogers was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and clearly had the wrong boyfriend. Pity she’d never met Michaelia. Or Peter Slipper. He might have filled Sarah in on what really “upsets” the AFP.
And it’s NOT breaking the law. Justice is optional where they are concerned.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/roman-quaedvlieg-s-girlfriend-pleads-guilty-over-misleading-corruption-probe-20190220-p50z0h.html
And it doesn’t describe what they do, which is take corporate money and support austerity.
The most meaningful shared characteristic of the group is an overweening sense of entitlement.
If they respected the voters they would trigger by-elections and seek the voters’ approval of their new venture.
They fear the voters because they know that their policy preference for austerity is not popular.
dave
Whenever political parties overly empower the grassroots to the nth degree those with energy and obsessions tend to build power.
This quite naturally and usually becomes an extremist subset of the original pool. They quite often turn on anyone and anything vaguely to the centre of whatever lunatic fringe they develop. The policies become more and extreme and doctrinaire. Contrary evidence is fake news. There is no middle path. Compromise is a Beast. Cult-like symptoms emerge. One such symptom is an extreme delusion about how the majority of the population share their views.
They also frequently become quite nasty and abusive in the interpersonal sense. I don’t think that Bhathal, Banks and Berger all citing bullying is at all random. It is symptomatic and systematic.
Signs of their ‘progress’ include policies that make less and less sense to the majority of voters, a willingness – if not an eagerness – to wreck the joint and a resort to feelpinion laced with symbols as the main means of persuasion. Another sign is droves of ‘normal’ members, supporters and MPs bailing out. The latter often share the view that the Party that they used to know walked away from them.
The extremists are very energetic in putting together an extreme policy package and just as energetically using pre-selection processes and other organization wing efforts, to rid the Party of any MP who does not mirror their extreme views.
This is what is happening in the British LaboUr Party.
It is what has happened in the Australian Liberal Party.
It is what is happening in the Australian Greens.
It happened with the Tea Party and the Republicans.
BTW, I have noticed various approving comments on PB about the Gilets Jaunes in France. I wonder whether these axiomatic approvers have checked to see whether the GJs have a high composition of extremist revolutionaries/wreckers from both the doctrinaire Left AND doctrinaire Right? They have those sorts of people in France.
Can we please spilt the thread.
I personally don’t care what happens in the UK. The decision there makes little difference to us.
Boerwar
Haven’t you checked ?
Kirky @ #2746 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 7:46 pm
Well, that’s not really true. Apart from the personal implications for maybe 50% of all Australians, it will affect our trade with both the UK and with the EU – i.e. about $70 billion per annum.
briefly @ #2663 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:12 pm
On the other hand terms like libling, trots, far left, etc., etc., that you use with gay abandon are terms of endearment, eh?
poroti
I haven’t checked the french newspapers – probably because I believe I already know the answer. I saw plenty of evidence of both sides while I lived in Paris for a year.
Some of those guys are totally crazy. If they burn less than four thousand cars on New Year’s Eve then the Government announces that it was a bit of a fizzer.
I would happily bet a thousand bucks that both lots are at it.