The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.
National polling news:
• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.
• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.
• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).
With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.
• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.
• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.
• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.
Preselection news:
• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.
• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.
Question wrote, re. my comment on Hartcher’s article:
Spot on, Question.
They are so arrogant about it they think they can have a chuckle among themselves about how they’ll pull the wool over the Mob’s eyes.
Nowhere in the article does Hartcher say he’ll do something in rebuttal to counter the scam. The implication is that he’ll just regurgitate it, or at best sit passively by while it’s perpetrated. His not to reason why etc.
But it’s his job to report on policy and to analyse it, pro and con (what else would someone as senior as he do? It’s not like he’s a cadet. He’s of editor rank). His responsibility doesn’t end with more He-said/She-said, ball-by-ball commentary. Hartcher, and others like him, ARE the conduit between politicians and the public. If THEY don’t explain and expose what’s happening and what the true situation is, then WHO WILL?
Is he just going to sit by when a boat miraculously materialises and say something Croweish like “Bill Shorten has just lost the election” without at least attempting to explain why that should NOT be the case, and why there’s a lot more to politics than phoney boat swindles?
Reading his columns is like eavesdropping at a magician’s convention (the closed session where they get drunk and reveal how they do their tricks and fool their audiences), or bugging an advertising agency to steal their pitch. If the lublic is bring scammed then whose job is it to detail how the scam works (and to keep it up until the message sinks in), if not senior political journalists?
Can we just start comparing these ‘poor’ Self Funded Retirees and their weekly income to Newstart recipients? Most of whom can’t even afford a place to live, let alone one with a garden.
LOL!
https://twitter.com/PeterDutton_MP/status/1096584648115847168
Why do “we” want that?
Well besides believing in looking after our elderly I would like as little as possible to go to the Aged “Care” rackets currently run by spivs to fleece the elderly & the government. I am of course biased, the 3hrs /fortnight cleaning service my 93 yr old mother gets is a great help in keeping her happy at home.
On the cleaner and gardener:
What’s their total annual income?
What aren’t they willing to give up? 🙂
nath says:
OMG, does that mean you have let ‘Nanny’ and the valet go ? How awful.
I dont think self funded retirees can be poor or can they? Im assuming they have enough money that they dont qualify for a pension.
Dutton is in charge of Home Affairs.Not many are going to believe him.He is the most hated politician in the country.
steve davis
Ask that question to the likes of Scrott and Josh and you will hear the word “yes” followed many many times by the weasel of ‘taxable income’
Don’t forget this Government tightened the assets test in 2017 which threw 100,000 off the pension and 300,000 had a reduced pension.
All the Government MPs voted for this.
Where was the Tim Wilson family in all of this?
https://www.amp.com.au/news/2016/october/changes-to-the-age-pension-assets-test
Real Time live
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9lns7zaMkg
ScoMoFaux says he’s wearing those caps as a mark of solidarity with drought/flood affected people. Some action on Climate Change may be better than some caps IMHO..
My parents are Self Funded Retirees. They both worked all their working lives and had Retirement Savings Accounts before it was called Superannuation.
They hate Labor with a passion, even though it was the Labor Party that introduced what they already had for everybody else.
There’s nowt as queer as folk. 🙂
Don’t other people get their lawn mowed by someone else? I just assumed with all the Jim’s Mowing franchises that half the country did. Evidently, PB is a DIY community.
Pratt with the Hat.
Most people i know mow their own lawns on the weekend when they have free time… crazy i know!!
I applied for a part pension in November last year. I have supplied Centrelink with all necessary information.
Every fortnight i get a SMS message from a demented robot which states:
“We are still working on your claim. Claims can take longer to process if they are complex or submitted during busy times. Do not reply by SMS.”
I assume Centrelink no longer have staff!!
Sorry if this is a repost. I missed it yesterday.
FDOTM gets it …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/15/this-is-literally-the-biggest-news-story-in-the-world
🙁
swamprat
says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 2:07 pm
I applied for a part pension in November last year. I have supplied Centrelink with all necessary information.
Every fortnight i get a SMS message from a demented robot which states:
“We are still working on your claim. Claims can take longer to process if they are complex or submitted during busy times. Do not reply by SMS.”
I assume Centrelink no longer have staff!!
____________________________
Swamp that is unacceptable. I have had to submit claims for grandparents/parents in the past. Call them and they will put a priority on it I am sure.
There would have been 500 asylum seekers arrive by plane this week. Where is the MSM outrage.?
Crickets.
swamprat @ #217 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 2:07 pm
I have heard (here and elsewhere) that all pension claims now take 6 months to process. It is a way of upping the pension age by six months without requiring any legislation. Also, if there is any excuse they can find to take longer, they do.
Dan Gulberry says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 1:46 pm
nath @ #185 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:43 am
How the fuck can “struggling retirees” afford a gardener and cleaner?
______________________________________
Getting some help for a couple of hours a fortnight is hardly having a ‘gardener and cleaner’. We want elderly people staying in their homes for as long as possible.
Why do “we” want that?
———————
Because it is far cheaper than caring for them in aged care facilities.
‘The only national emergency is our president is an idiot’
Does anyone know why Ann Coulter hates Trump so much? He is an idiot but I wouldn’t expect Ann Coulter to have worked that out.
Peter Stanton
And a good way to avoid the sort of horrors we will hear from in the future RC on the Aged Care sector.
Dio:
She turned on Trump when he caved on the shutdown.
@swamprat
I would go via complaints to Department of Human Services
The more noise you make, the faster they work.
Try: complaints@dss.gov.au
And also make a Online Complaint to get a reference number.
https://www.dss.gov.au/contact/feedback-compliments-complaints-and-enquiries
Baby boomers were born into a world where:
War was seen as glamorous and honorable;
There was no national health care;
Tertiary education was only available for those who could afford to pay up front or gain rare scholarship;
Childcare was non existent;
There was no consumer protection laws;
There was no government funding for the arts;
Only those who worked for the government or large corporations had superannuation.
This list is just what came to mind in a few minutes. There are many other things that were changed for the better by the baby boomer generation. But forget that lets just abuse them because a few of them have managed to get wealthy.
Instead of winging about baby boomers why not do what they did. Get of your arses and campaign to change what you do not agree with.
Diogenes says: Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 2:15 pm
‘The only national emergency is our president is an idiot’
Does anyone know why Ann Coulter hates Trump so much? He is an idiot but I wouldn’t expect Ann Coulter to have worked that out.
**********************************************************
Probably for the same reasons as Conservative/GOP stalwarts like Jennifer Rubin, Max Boot, Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt etc etc …….. they see Trump as an eventual destructive force to the Party/Ideals that they have fought for all their political lives …….. they see through his con-man persona and as a blowhard buffoon ….
Gg
Just back …thanks for your lecture, fine with rebuttal and discussion of topics that is discussion no need for point scoring and hectoring
Front page of Sydney’s Daily Rupert (paper edition):
– Main story: celebrity trivia (some guy Stefanovic)
– Left column: something about a race horse; Disney promotion
– Bottom section: a drop from the NSW Coalition Government on a new program for children’s sport (actually sounds worthwhile).
Nothing about boats, although these feature in the electronic edition and no doubt on later pages of the paper version.
@Peter Stanton
Stop making excuses，for baby boomers
Don’t blame the current generation because you won’t take any responsibility for the current or future generation.
It’s about time we stop tax dodgers, stop taking tax cuts, stop giving negative gearing.
These changes won’t effect baby boomers in the real world because it’s fear mongering, just like the refugee fear mongering.
nath, Player 1, zoidlord,
Re: Centrelink. Thank you for your suggestions.
It has surprised me as my claim is pretty straightforward, i think.
Regarding the growing extinction of insects. I noticed there were no Christmas beetles this Christmas time in Northern Rivers. Not one!
I have never seen that before. Was it because of the lack of rain?
swamprat
Could it have anything to do with you writing “Alba gu bràth” all over the form ? 🙂
“I have heard (here and elsewhere) that all pension claims now take 6 months to process.”
That is scandalous.
A question that Labor should ask: is this deliberate, or is it blithering incompetence?
there have been a few cases with a really long time to process a claim but apparently
average processing time for aged pension claims was 49 days
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/five-months-and-no-age-pension-centrelink-delays-not-acceptable-20180715-p4zrlx.html
Now that President Trump has declared a national emergency to circumvent Congress and build his wall, Republican legislators face a time for choosing: Support Trump or the rule of law.
Conservatives once understood the concept of “unintended consequences,” and they are not only going to get a refresher course, they are likely to get it good and hard. How bad could it be? The worst-case scenario for the GOP is if Trump’s power grab succeeds. If the courts uphold the president’s sweeping power to declare emergencies and abrogate Congress’s Article I powers, the damage to the constitutional equilibrium is likely to last for generations.
It hardly takes a wizard to imagine how those powers might be exercised by a Democratic president—on climate change, gun rights, healthcare, even trade.
Republican senators warned Trump against the move he took today precisely because they also understand the dangerous precedent it would set. But warnings and furrowed brows no longer suffice.
https://thebulwark.com/a-defining-moment-for-the-gop/
Also to the people whinging about Labors changes.
You are profiting over our selling of our selves and our planet, evil!
swamprat @ #217 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 2:07 pm
My carer’s pension was due to have been reviewed in June last year. Never happened, despite having already told them I thought I was no longer eligible. I was told to wait for the review and big notes made on my file. Only conclusion is that they no longer have staff to undertake reviews.
Not going to argue!
BB at 1:54 pm,
Hartcher’s efforts are worth it for your rebuttals 🙂
poroti
I sent the robot a video from Riaghaltas na h-Alba. It may have confused it.
https://youtu.be/TkHEwQUHP0A
Bill Maher destroys Trump’s ‘incoherent’ emergency declaration Rose Garden rant: Time ‘to call the nursing home’
HBO’s “Real Time” host Bill Maher hilariously attacked President Donald Trump for a declaring a national emergency to build his border wall after Mexico and Congress refused to fund his plan.
“Try to remain calm, there’s a national emergency, haven’t you heard?” he asked.
“He did it, f*cko did it today,” Maher said. “The president declared a national emergency.”
Maher ridiculed Trump’s Rose Garden press conference announcing the declaration.
“This was just completely crackers,” he said. “I know I’ve said that before, but this was just one long, baseless, incoherent, stream of consciousness, call the nursing home rant.”
“We don’t even notice anymore when he gets stupider, it’s like farting on a garbage ship,” he continued.
“A national emergency should not be used by Trump — it should be used on Trump,” he concluded.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/bill-maher-destroys-trumps-incoherent-emergency-declaration-rose-garden-rant-time-call-nursing-home/
“Emergency Powers” have been invoked by any number of tinpot dictators in many countries to override parliaments and democratic processes, normally in the name of combatting communism or terrorism, but in fact for the purpose of suppressing opposition.
We even had our own version in Australia. In 1971, Queensland Premier Jo Bjielke-Petersen, Queensland’s own tinpot dictator, declare a state of emegency to break a strike that was preventing the Springbok (Apartheid South African) Rugby team from flying to a venue to play a match.
If that QLD poll is accurate it represents a 6% swing since 2016 according to Bludgertrack.
A 6% swing nation wide would be almost 56-44.
“Regarding the growing extinction of insects. I noticed there were no Christmas beetles this Christmas time in Northern Rivers. Not one!”
I have noticed that in Sydney as well. It’s not lack of rain, that’s been average to above average here.
You bet your bottom dollar if Shorten wins the election,the MSM will say that Shorten is just the luckiest politician in the country.
When I applied for the pension in April last year I was told it would take 13 weeks.
After 12 weeks I got a request for more information. I supplied it the next day and pension was approved within a week.
Must be lucky I guess.
Delays don’t save money. The age pension is backdated to day claimant became eligible.
If you are coming up to the qualifying age you can apply early.
Re the obesity photo posted by Fozzie Logic at 12:52 (p3)
I think the sign inspired her pose. Scrambled eggs and yogurt? Pull the other one…
Another good Real Time. New Rules again calling out those purity obsessives who want their political candidates to be 100% perfect.
Next week Rick Wilson is on as is one of my faves, Donna Brazille. Also Adam Schiff!
SD,
I have the feeling Shorten’s style will suit being PM, so I expect the ‘luck’ to continue. Rather a lot needs fixing so it won’t be easy.