Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. Hinch

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/derryn-hinch-throws-future-of-refugee-medical-transfer-bill-into-doubt-20190213-p50xej.html

    Hours after the government suffered a one-vote defeat on the legislation in the House of Representatives late on Tuesday night, Senator Hinch, who had previously voted for the legislation, said he could not promise to vote for the bill in its amended form.
    :::
    Opposition leader Bill Shorten urged Senator Hinch to support a “stronger” bill.

    “The bill before him is now stronger and provides for stronger borders than indeed what was initially contemplated last December,” he said.

    For Shorten the primary focus was to achieve “stronger borders”.

    For the crossbench the focus was on saving lives through a strengthened medivac bill, a bill designed to solve life and death medical issues, and has nothing to do with “national security”.

  4. “These amendments mean that the government must now listen to advice of doctors about whether sick refugees and asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island should be evacuated to Australia for medical care.”

    “Labor worked with the crossbench members of the other place to secure important amendments to strengthen this bill. Labor has been doing the same thing in the Senate, and has been working closely with senators across the crossbench to make sure these amendments are supported in both houses of parliament.“

  5. I’ve seen the word “kakistocracy” a number of times in recent months. Between Trump, Brexit and goings on in Australia, there’s been a big call for it.

  10. Isn’t it great to see bipartisanship from Shorten and Morrison on the issue of raising awareness for… whatever the hell a teal blue ribbon stands for. I mean, I’m sure awareness will skyrocket for whatever issue it is, just like it does for every other coloured ribbon issue that crops up every day of the week.

    Okay, maybe it’s just me. Maybe everyone else keeps up with whatever colour out of the approximately one million detectable by the human eye today’s ribbon is supposed to be. But I doubt it.

    P.S. I hope I haven’t offended anyone who really cares about whatever teal blue stands for. I’m sure it’s a worthwhile cause. It’s just that the proliferation of ribbons is getting a bit out of hand.

  11. Will Hinch believe the letting in rapists and peadohiles line the government is pushing?

    He didn’t last time. I hope all those calls from GetUp! Are having an effect.

  13. Confessions @ #100 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 9:43 am

    Itza:

    You know that as soon as boat arrives (and I’m sure we will see one) the govt is going to scream for all its worth as to how they knew this would happen once the Medivac bill went into law.

    You betcha, but only to draw attention to their own complicity, if Labor play this right.

    If they think they’re clever starting up a one issue campaign, then they’re more stupid they even I thought. Labor have a lot of ammo to fire, on a lot of issues, including the hip pocket. It will be nasty, but Shorten is battle ready. Morrison and Dutton are all uniform and war cries.

  14. Just for Briefly and the many others to have a giggle

    Ebola is baaaaaccccckkkkkkk!

    The Congo epidemic seems to be getting out of hand and again there are warnings of spreading outside Africa.

    It is certainly alarmist in this case (or at least premature) but the rather sad thing is that it would seem the trial vaccine in not working effectively

    Warning my source is a bit suss so I suggest do your own research.

  15. The way I see it is the only thing that can sway the public’s minds and re-elect the current mob is if Bluey the blue-tied octopus awards another 30 bonus points to the Coalition during the upcoming campaign.

    All Bludgers should be on high alert and remain vigilant.

    This is a community service announcement from Octopus Watch.

  16. Kevin Conway

    Apart from the fact that info is hidden from Australians, navy people tell us it is them stopping the boats. And Indonesian and Malaysians tell us there are still boats capsizing and people drowning in their waters.

  19. Scott Morrison has announced a press conference for 10.15 in the prime minister’s courtyard – where the serious-serious press conferences are held.

  21. Really!!

    Mitch Fifield is arguing that border security is the responsibility of the elected government of the day.

    But again, the government does not consider this bill to be a matter of “vital importance”, the loss of which, can act as a trigger for an election.

    So it is both critically important, and not, depending on which argument is being made at the time.

  22. Zoidlord @ #95 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 8:40 am

    Greens played political games with one of the amendments.

    they wanted 72 hours instead of 24.

    Revisionist.

    First, the Coalition played political games by making absurd claims about the bill allowing 1000+ refugees into Australia “within weeks” and giving people smugglers a green light to send their armada.

    Then Labor for some reason partly bought into those absurd claims and played its own political games by requiring new amendments to water down a bill it had already voted for and passed through the Senate.

    Then the Greens were upset that Labor’s amendments seemed to initially allow an indefinite amount of time for a Minister to reach a decision, and played games by threatening to walk away.

    I’m least upset about the games the Greens played. They got the worst aspect of Labor’s amendments walked back to something reasonable. 24 hours would have still been better than 72, but 72 hours is far better than ‘indefinite’.

  24. For the record it’s Labor moving the motion in the Senate.

    So now we can say a true coalition with credit to all progressives.

    Edit: on the record.

  25. lizzie @ #121 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 9:57 am

    Really!!

    Mitch Fifield is arguing that border security is the responsibility of the elected government of the day.

    But again, the government does not consider this bill to be a matter of “vital importance”, the loss of which, can act as a trigger for an election.

    So it is both critically important, and not, depending on which argument is being made at the time.

    If they had any balls they’s be getting a bit sore with this double act fence straddling.

  27. We should give full credit to all the Cross Benchers, including the Greens, in proportion to their contribution to the vote.

    Bandt = 1/151 votes = less than a 1% contribution to the passing of the Act. Labor graciously allowed Bandt to speak by way of seconding Shorten’s motion. As noted yesterday, the mouse who squeaked.

    As for the Greens’ contribution to the public policy debate, it rather looks as if they have snuggled into bed with a sociopath to pass an Act that fails to meet all sorts of Greens threshold standards of humanity, decency and umbrage.

    Here is what you will not hear Di Natale say: ‘Because of Greens Party support for the Act, Minister Dutton will still have the final say on national security issues and the Act will not apply to new infusions of Nauruan inmates.’

    Politics makes for strange bedfellows!

    In terms of the fallout, the Greens will claim 100% credit for around 90% of the Act which would have been perfect if only Parliament’s Resident Sociopath had done what he was told to do by the Greens.

    So much for the Greens public contribution running into the vote: in common with the Liberals, the Nationals, PHON, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Fred Nile Party, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, the Greens did Shorten Bad. The whole bloody lot of them! Same Same!

    In terms of the fallout, the slurring, the verballing, the outright lies, the column centimeters, the shouting, the absolute vitriol of the shockjocks, the Sky After Dark bloviators, it is Shorten who is wearing 99% of the pain.

    But, as noted yesterday, none of this really matters much any more.

    It is falling standards of living, falling real wages, falling savings that will kill the Morrison Government.

    Australians are being robbed in the millions. Not by boat people. But by the Coalition’s friends: the bankers, finance industry, builders, bosses, aged care providers, transport providers, electricity providers…

    The bosses are stealing billions in wages, conditions, Super and time.

    The nostrums of no quotas for women, privatization, globalization, Global Warming science denial, deregulation and ‘competitive’ wages are gone.

    The internal shitfights in the Coalition are the icing on the cake.

  31. The reason why the government is failing.

    With the rise of technology there are time limits to how long before the truth is revealed.

    Now the media cannot keep the government narrative artificially afloat.

    I think the Tony Abbott election was the last time that could happen. I think this happened faster because of Fox and Trump and people understanding this.

    Those falling audience reach numbers have to have an impact.

  33. Pegasus

    In the interests of unity, I wasn’t going to go the Greens on this issue. But apparently you don’t do ‘gracious’.

    There was a schism revealed in the Greens yesterday. By the looks of it, Bandt defied his leader.

    If Bandt had followed di Natale’s stated position, the bill would have been sunk.

  35. Labor voted for a very good Bill – the Storer Bill – in the Senate in December last year. Then yesterday they suddenly got the jitters and insisted on amendments, including an unacceptable amendment to give the Home Affairs Minister an indefinite amount of time to make a decision about a person’s medical evacuation. Luckily the Greens and the Independents were there to hold Labor’s hand and talk them through it. It is absolutely necessary for the Minister’s decision-making to be timebound. The 72 hour limit was a compromise between the Greens’ position of 24 hours and Labor’s position of an indefinite amount of time.

  36. In procedural terms, is the Senate forced to vote on the Act as passed by the House?
    Or can the Senate turn around and move non money amendments to the Act sent up to the Senate?
    If so, will the Government craft an amendment to meet Senator Hinch’s concerns about security.

  37. confessions @ 10.04 am

    I’m afraid that just exemplifies why voters are turning off the major parties in droves. People are sick to death of the way in which partisans can only interpret events in terms of their own partisan interests. They expect politicians to be working for the good of the country, and to be seeking workable bi-partisan solutions which inevitably will involve compromise. That’s the source of the appeal of the pragmatic independents. If your main focus is on who “won” and who “lost”, you are channeling Tony Abbott.

  42. Boerwar

    Given that the votes were consistently 75 ayes to 74 nays, only the 75 contributed to passing the Bill.

    Hence Bandt’s, and all other MPs who voted “aye”, contribution is as 1 of 75 not 1 of 150. Shirley 🙂

  43. Pedant:

    That may be so, but I honestly think it’s stretching credulity to claim that anything that is posted here has any real impact on voters.

  47. zoomster,
    Adam Bandt is the only Green who has to face the electors in a single seat vote in the upcoming election, whereas all the others benefit from the statewide count to win their seats. I think that might also have played some part in his considerations whether to vote with the rest of the HoR Cross Bench, or follow the leader.

  48. The West this morning could not resist beating up the Boat drum………with a speedo-like meter showing 000 just ticking over to 1 for new boat arrivals. Its political writer a little further in could also not resist the meme of Bill being kind of right up against an energised Morrison.
    The above only makes the cynic in me wonder, along with others, as to just how soon a Boat will suddenly turn up in Geraldton harbour as one did years ago?
    What puzzles me is if Operation Sovereign Boarders is so successful – not to mention tow-backs and the fact that none of the information about boats is made available to the public for “security reasons” – why any kind of information, should such boats come, still not be kept secret for “security reasons”?
    I bet failed senator Molan will be spitting chips that he is not part of the action now……………….

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