Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 51
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  1. Don, ‘. It does not help that so much of South Australia’s gas-fired electricity generation is remarkably inefficient.’

    I think the way the AGL generator in Adelaide uses gas in a similar manner to coal. It is burnt to heat water in a boiler.

    The more efficient way of using the gas is to use it in an equivelent to a jet engine (gas turbine?) in an open cycle (hot flue gas released into the atmosphere).

    And a more efficient system is use the gas in a turbine and then use the resultant flue gas to heat water in a boiler.

  2. So much for Bernardi leading his own Party.

    Today shows he is still a Liberal lap dog!

    No one has done more to obstruct the Senate hence facilitate the Government’s desire.

  3. @Tony_Burke tweets

    The government knew the price of the encryption bill was to also see the parliament vote to allow medical advice to be properly considered for those on Nauru. The could have both or neither. They chose neither.

    To me this is good news. Except for the poor souls on Nauru. However Labor in government will change this and the sooner the better for the AS

  5. BTW

    I think its going to be Labor campaigning on energy prices and the LNP on boats. Also over christmas voters will be told about the LNP wanting to support coal by privatising power companies.

  7. I thought oppositions were meant to filibuster.

    If they are too afraid to hold parliament, they should just go to an election. The bill to stop torturing children will still be there in Feb. buying themselves a couple months more to get some good torturing in hardly seems worth it.

    Pathetic.

  8. “Amy’s blog:
    The government seems to be choosing to give up the encryption legislation passing to make sure this bill [medical evacuation] doesn’t come to the house.”

    That blows away Morrison’s outrageous claim about Labor wanting to let terrorists run amok.

    By that same perverted logic, Morrison himself is quite happy to encourage terrorism in Australia.

  10. Tweets

    Sarah Joseph
    ‏ @profsarahj
    29s30 seconds ago

    Sarah Joseph Retweeted Sam W

    Bad news is that #kidsoffnauru won’t pass. But nor will #AAbill

  13. Paul Bongiorno
    ‏Verified account @PaulBongiorno
    17s18 seconds ago

    The Immigration minister @DavidColemanMP has confirmed 700 refugees and asylum seekers have been brought to Australia from off shore detention, yet he argues as does the PM that bringing anymore who doctors diagnose as sick will start the boats again. Go figure the bull shit.

  14. caf @ #1784 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    guytaur why are you arguing with someone who agrees with you on the substantial issue.

    Because Guytaur, more than anyone else on this blog, loves the sound of his own voice.

    And if anyone disagrees with him, the GT posts continue for days about it.

    And he sees disagreement with his views, and denigration of himself, in posts which were anything but. And then rabbits on about it forever.

    And may dog help you if you ever mention LGBTIQ even just in passing, with no bad intent whatsoever.

    It is very tiresome.

  15. From The Guardian:

    In the Senate right now, every single amendment is being broken into parts and voted on separately. I have never seen this happen before.

  17. don @ #1798 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 3:11 pm

    However, our research found by far the biggest reason for higher wholesale electricity prices in South Australia is higher gas prices. It does not help that so much of South Australia’s gas-fired electricity generation is remarkably inefficient.

    (strange, I thought that P1 told us that gas fired generation was the ants pants!)

    All P1 keeps trying to tell you is that gas is better than coal if you are actually trying to miminize total emissions. That’s it. Not difficult to understand, is it? And SA currently gets about half of its electricity from gas, which is a good thing – because if it wasn’t getting it from gas it would be getting it from coal, not renewables.

    But as usual all the various idiots on here want to do is talk about cost. They conveniently forget that the real argument is about minimizing total emissions, not cost. But they know they can’t win that argument, so they never want to discuss it. They just want to bang on about cost.

  18. A budget doesn’t have to be “passed”

    Several things from hockey’s famous 2014 budget may still be floating around on a notice paper somewhere.

  19. Bongiorno

    bringing anymore who doctors diagnose as sick will start the boats again. Go figure the bull shit.

    The Coalition don’t seem to care about logic, any more than compassion.

  23. Mr Denmore
    ‏ @MrDenmore
    44s45 seconds ago

    Don’t want to govern; don’t want to face parliament; just want to cling to power and peddle hatred, fear and ignorance; just a pile of fascist filth that need to be flushed down the toilet of history.

  24. Christopher Pyne
    ‏
    Labor has chosen to allow terrorists and paedophiles to continue their evil work in order to engage in point scoring.

    Chrissie’s twitter heading shows him holding an attractive Labrador puppy. Is this meant to soften his image?

  25. Cat
    “Chris Pyne is saying that the Bill doesn’t need to come back to the House. But Labor have moved new amendments in the Senate. So yes it does. ”

    Thanks. In that case it will be the greatest Liberal victory since the Victorian election.

    On the plus side this behavior is showing the independents in parliament who the real obstructionists are. Many will still be there after May 2019, so Labor will want to have a good relationship with them. Most in the House are proving reasonable. There is also the prospect of passing a Federal ICAC bill in 2019. Meanwhile our part time PM will go back to the Shire and hide in his hobbit-hole until April.

  26. Penny Wong’s motion is going to make the government choose, on the record, what it plans on doing with encryption.

    Basically she is attempting to force them to choose

  27. After today, the House sits for 7 days in mid February then 3 days April 2-4. There’s a week if sittings in May and 4 weeks in June.

    Now we know that Parliament will most likely be shut down on or shortly after April 4 for a May 11 or 18 election, so the May and June sittings are meaningless.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Events_Calendar/Events_Search_Result#range=yearly&display=calendar&from=2019-01-01&to=2019-12-31&senate=1&house=1&estimates=0&sb=0&sa=0&ss=0&committees=0&sh=0&hh=0&jh=0&sc=0&ir=0&visit=0&tr=0&se=0&ex=0&od=0&general=0&pubhol=1

    The schedule appears not to have been updated to include the Senate.

  28. Tim
    ‏ @timpoliti

    A question to the crossbenchers who have guaranteed confidence to the government saying they prefer it runs the full term: if the government shuts down parliament because it’s lost the ability to win divisions, why does it deserve confidence?
    @Indigocathy @juliabanksmp
    #auspol

  29. Bevan Shields
    ‏Verified account @BevanShields
    3m3 minutes ago

    Things meant to be finalised this fortnight that now won’t be: legislation to protect gay kids, the government’s ‘big stick’ power prices policy, encryption legislation to fight terrorist and pedophiles, and the crossbench bill on refugees. Welcome to Canberra #auspol
    3 replies 14 retweets 8 likes

  32. Would Julia Banks make a better choice of Speaker now? She would be a genuine independent, and knows the law.

    Don
    “However, our research found by far the biggest reason for higher wholesale electricity prices in South Australia is higher gas prices. It does not help that so much of South Australia’s gas-fired electricity generation is remarkably inefficient.”
    Exactly right. The Torrens Island power station was built in the 1960s (opened in 67). It is as old as Yallourn and Hazzelwood. With any kind of carbon price it would have been shut down years ago. The sooner we get more solar and wind, the sooner it can be shut down too.

  35. Libertarian Unionist @ #1814 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 3:27 pm

    That is pointing to huge reductions in coal, oil and gas use worldwide by 2050.

    Sadly, we don’t have till 2050. The carbon budget we have left if we want to keep warming under 2 degrees will be exhausted by about 2030 – or perhaps even sooner, as some climate scientists believe the budget remaining is significantly over-estimated.

    The best thing the world can do is rapidly eliminate the worst emissions offender – i.e. coal-fired power generation. Replacing it with anything that generates less emissions will give the breathing space we need to deploy renewables.

  37. lizzie @ #1862 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    Whatever the outcome, I do agree that Alice Workman needs a slap on the wrist for her gleeful pursuit of Husar.

    Considering that there was a trivially easy way to validate the information thrown into her lap (which would have confirmed that the most sensational allegations against her were false) and that she decided to publish it anyways without checking, yes.

    If she’s too lazy to do proper journalism she should try a different career.

  38. Anton

    It only goes to prove what we have been saying for months. The government has no real legislative program it wants to pass in parliament. There is no reform agenda. National security is only raised as a delaying tactic to avoid defeat. Under ScumMo the Liberals only goal is to hang onto power as long as possible, and spend Treasuries loot while they still control it.

  39. BK

    Yes thats my view. They are now officially a do nothing parliament under Morrison’s tenure. I don’t think that have passed any legislation. If they did I missed it.

  40. So: there’s two scheduled sitting weeks in February. Either the government will have all minors off Nauru by that time or give up on Parliament and call an election prior to the sitting weeks, giving up on the budget. Starting to think they may give up on Parliament and call an election early next year for March. Morrison could try on the argument that Parliament has become unmanageable, a threat to national security etc etc etc. It won’t wash, but unless they do this they may well face in February the same problem they face now, losing a vote in the reps.

  42. That work out well for the Liberals. If they are to be believed suffering on Nauru is more important than dealing with terrorism and discrimination.

  43. That gives the government less than five minutes to extend the sitting (as they do every single day)

    It doesn’t look like that will happen.

    So the encryption bill is also delayed.

  45. “The role of a judge is to protect the unpopular, not the popular.”
    The role of a judge is to apply the law correctly; popularity irrelevant. Getting it wrong without being held accountable is a hallmark of judges.

  46. Diogenes:

    “If doctors got it wrong as often as judges do, we’d be spending more time in court than judges do.”

    I think from memory you’re a medic, but as a lawyer – this is absolutely wrong. Judges get it right the vast, vast majority of the time.

    Also, assessing lawyers by whether they get it “right” is like assessing doctors by whether their patients get “better”. And you have to take into account that many scenarios mean that a party may appeal as of right, most appeals fail, and those that don’t fail are more likely to be some sort of hybrid outcome (e.g. a sentence reduction) that a straight up “the judge was wrong” finding. On top of which, appeals are naturally enough likely to be those cases which are the most difficult or more susceptible to error.

    So it’s more like taking the 100 most difficult and risky medical procedures for the year, then saying that doctors are hopeless because lots of them didn’t fully cure the patient…

    Finally… as someone who has done a bit of litigation involving doctors, I’d say first cast the beam out of thine own eye… some of them are terrifyingly incompetent and have alarming personality defects to match.

  47. frednk

    I hope so. What a gift to Labor not having a budget after bringing it forward specifically for the election. 🙂

    For LNP its a dilemma

  49. The Guardian:

    After hours of Labor, the Greens and crossbench voting together against the government on the medical transfer bill – finally a break.

    Labor is now voting with the government on a motion to end the refugee debate, because it’s clear the 4:30pm deadline to move it to the house has not been met.

    Richard Di Natale is outraged, telling Wong as she crosses to vote with the government: “You won’t help refugees but you’re voting with them to help ram through spying legislation

  50. Matt31

    After seeing the Morrison rant today I too would not be surprised if he goes for an earlier election.

    He is not someone who deals well with pressure. Even two weeks of parliament and three days of budget week might be a strain.

    Bring it on I say.

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